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Battle for top 10 (protected) draft picks in 2016 draft
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Post by telson13 on Sept 1, 2015 17:08:29 GMT -5
As bizarre as it feels to write this, I get the sense that the Sox are headed for a (better-than?) .500 finish. I can see them going 20-11, or better, against a bunch of floundering teams, especially with how well they've played lately against some of MLB's best. I think the bullpen is the only thing that may salvage a quality draft pick. Frankly, given the paucity of QO-protected picks worth signing, I'd prefer they just go on a ludicrous 25-6 run, especially if that's the product of Owens, Porcello, and Kelly all taking big steps forward (and ERod pitching well in the few remaining starts he does get).
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 1, 2015 21:05:51 GMT -5
I hope we don't go all in on FA who would require draft pick compensation anyways. Cueto and Price wouldn't cost a first rounder but I wouldn't mind seeing the RS take a year off from giving out contracts that everyone knows are going to turn out bad. (They're not supposed turn into albatrosses in the first year, though.)
Use the prospect redundancy in the OF and at C to bring in a young, cost-controlled SP and be aggressive and smart in re-building the BP and this team is back in business.
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alnipper
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Living the dream
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Post by alnipper on Sept 2, 2015 10:28:27 GMT -5
The remaining schedule has the Sox all teams with a better record, except the Phillies. The Sox play the A.L. the rest of the year except the upcoming 3 games with the Phillies. I want an front of the line pitcher drafted in 2016.
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Post by jrffam05 on Sept 2, 2015 10:38:40 GMT -5
Could the people rooting for us to lose and the people rooting for us to win at least come together and agree that we should root for them to beat the Yankees?
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Post by soxfan1615 on Sept 2, 2015 12:42:00 GMT -5
The remaining schedule has the Sox all teams with a better record, except the Phillies. The Sox play the A.L. the rest of the year except the upcoming 3 games with the Phillies. I want an front of the line pitcher drafted in 2016. How about just a front line player? since hitters are easier to draft, I'd prefer one of them
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Post by sammo420 on Sept 2, 2015 12:45:29 GMT -5
The remaining schedule has the Sox all teams with a better record, except the Phillies. The Sox play the A.L. the rest of the year except the upcoming 3 games with the Phillies. I want an front of the line pitcher drafted in 2016. How about just a front line player? since hitters are easier to draft, I'd prefer one of them Somewhere in this thread is a list of first tier players that are all about equal; I don't care if it's a pitcher or a hitter, but I want somebody in that tier. Of course, by the time the draft rolls around that tier will have changed.
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Post by ramireja on Sept 2, 2015 12:50:41 GMT -5
At this time last year, the top of 2015 mock draft lists included some combination of Matuella, Aiken, Rodgers, Kirby, Buehler, Funkhouser, and Daz Cameron.....with guys like Benintendi, Dillon Tate, and Tyler Jay nowhere to be found. Boy, how that changed.
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Post by amfox1 on Sept 2, 2015 13:04:11 GMT -5
At this time last year, the top of 2015 mock draft lists included some combination of Matuella, Aiken, Rodgers, Kirby, Buehler, Funkhouser, and Daz Cameron.....with guys like Benintendi, Dillon Tate, and Tyler Jay nowhere to be found. Boy, how that changed. Matuella - injured Aiken - injured Rodgers - drafted #3 Kirby - injured Buehler - injured Funkhouser - injured/ineffective Cameron - signability issues
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 6, 2015 8:19:19 GMT -5
This is the year of the reverse pennant race, for sure. The NL playoff teams are almost settled. The only race for a playoff spot seems to be the AL second wild card.
Meanwhile, we're clinging to the 9 pick by 1.5 games, and there's a virtual 4 way tie for the last protected pick, with two more teams within another game.
We're 19-14 starting July 30, when Steven Wright beat Chris Sale. That .576 Win% would make us the second-best team in the AL. And it's not like we're beating up on trash; other losing pitchers in this stretch include Luis Severino, Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez, Corey Kluber, Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, Jacob deGrom, and Jake McGee in relief, and we also won games started by Matt Harvey and another by Sale.
And we've done it without Vazquez, Pedroia, Buchholz, Uehara (starting 8/8), Porcello (before 8/26), Wright (starting 8/16), and Johnson (starting 8/7), which meant we actually had to hand two starts to our #9 starter (we lost both games), and without making much of an attempt to have a competent bullpen -- Tazawa has a 6.43 ERA, 5.67 xFIP and -2.11 (!) WPA in that stretch.
At the current pace, we'll finish 79-83 and pick 16th.
But sure, this team is in terrible shape and DDo has a monumental task in front of him to make us a contender.
Tm W L GB Phi 53 83 -- Atl 54 82 1 Cin 55 79 3 Mia 56 80 3 Col 56 79 3.5 Oak 58 78 5 Mil 60 75 7.5 Det 62 73 9.5 Bos 63 72 10.5 ChA 64 70 12 Sea 65 71 12 SD 65 71 12 Ari 65 71 12 Bal 65 70 12.5 Cle 65 69 13 TB 67 68 14.5
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Post by templeusox on Sept 6, 2015 10:20:16 GMT -5
Who really are the big FA's that teams would sacrifice a pick for? With Cueto, Price, Kazmir, and Leake being traded, they are all compensation-free.
That basically leaves Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Ian Desmond, Alex Gordon, Matt Wieters, Zack Greinke, Jordan Zimmermann, and maybe Jeff Samardzija.
I have a hard time envisioning the Sox signing any position player this off-season. So to me, losing a pick basically comes down to whether they want to sign Greinke, Zimmermann, or Samardzija.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 6, 2015 11:26:47 GMT -5
Who really are the big FA's that teams would sacrifice a pick for? With Cueto, Price, Kazmir, and Leake being traded, they are all compensation-free. That basically leaves Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Ian Desmond, Alex Gordon, Matt Wieters, Zack Greinke, Jordan Zimmermann, and maybe Jeff Samardzija. I have a hard time envisioning the Sox signing any position player this off-season. So to me, losing a pick basically comes down to whether they want to sign Greinke, Zimmermann, or Samardzija. That really puts this whole thing about worrying about a top-10 protected pick thing into perspective. It sort of comes down to.....Zimmerman (and maybe Greinke if the Dodgers don't re-up him) to who we would potentially have to give up our 1st pick for. I would not at all be surprised if Greinke re-signs. So if Dave D. is going this route.....we sign 1 of these 4: Price, Cueto, Kazmir, or (bite the bullet with) Zimmerman. Possibly Jordan Zimmerman has somewhat less of a bargaining position with Price, Cueto, and Kazmir not losing someone a 1st rounder. I'm not advocating him at all.....it is just interesting. WHAT really worries me is giving any pitcher, this old, a 6 to 7 year contract. Probably won't happen, but I'd love to get Price or Cueto for just 5 years!
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Post by larrycook on Sept 6, 2015 14:32:01 GMT -5
I think we have a chance to finish this year ahead of Baltimore and maybe Tampa. They are really struggling and we are a playing much better lately.
We will know more about our team after the Toronto series.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 8, 2015 13:28:49 GMT -5
Meanwhile, this tidbit from Szymborski:
Fun fact - since 2008, the Red Sox have actually drafted+signed the fewest total WAR in the draft, 5.0. Diamondbacks top at 69.7.
Also lists AZ picks vs. Sox picks in that period:
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Post by ramireja on Sept 8, 2015 13:40:25 GMT -5
Not that it really matters (unless Eric is calculating the WAR ) but I think he left out Christian Vazquez for some reason. Basically his analysis means that we didn't draft well from 2008-2010 (those draft classes have had more time to play out), which is true. It feels like our 2011 class is currently averaging 1.0 WAR/day. Those figures will look different in a year or two.
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Post by jrffam05 on Sept 8, 2015 14:05:47 GMT -5
And Alex Wilson. Also cut off the year after Rizzo, which would change the skew. But as noted, once the 2011 guys start adding to the equation this will look much different(I was also surprised to see Workman have a net -2 WAR difference in Fwar and Bwar.... He's only got 128 innings.)
Boy, I can't wait to read the international version of this list in 2021. Bogaerts, Espinoza, Devers, Margot, Moncada, Guerra, Iglesias, Montas (and if you want to count him, Castillo) to name a few. Even if you exclude Moncada, that's a hell of a list.
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wbcd
Rookie
Posts: 33
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Post by wbcd on Sept 8, 2015 14:10:20 GMT -5
Meanwhile, this tidbit from Szymborski: Fun fact - since 2008, the Red Sox have actually drafted+signed the fewest total WAR in the draft, 5.0. Diamondbacks top at 69.7. edit: was also pointing Alex Wilson and the focus on years 2008-2010 but jrffam got there first. It's funny how one can parse statistics: this website (http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/which-teams-are-hitting-and-missing-in-mlb-draft-060314) states that the Red Sox were among the leaders in drafting major league players by WARP between 2010 and 2014.
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Post by loomerloney on Sept 8, 2015 14:11:23 GMT -5
Meanwhile, this tidbit from Szymborski: Fun fact - since 2008, the Red Sox have actually drafted+signed the fewest total WAR in the draft, 5.0. Diamondbacks top at 69.7. Not that it's likely to improve their standing (given the poor results from 2008-2010), but it would seem to be a better overall exercise to only consider players with WAR > 0.0. Seems unfair to penalize for below replacement MLB players with overlong tryouts and not penalize for minor league busts that can't get past AA.
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Post by kman22 on Sept 8, 2015 21:24:00 GMT -5
Ogando, doing his part.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 8, 2015 21:30:48 GMT -5
With our bullpen, running through the options like we did tonight is like playing Russian roulette. Sooner or later your brains are gonna be blown out.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 8, 2015 23:29:22 GMT -5
With our bullpen, running through the options like we did tonight is like playing Russian roulette. Sooner or later your brains are gonna be blown out. That's one way to put it. If this was an audition for Ogando, it looks a lot like the rest of his "body of work". You can put in your own joke here. Coming to you from the great Northwest
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Post by blizzards39 on Sept 8, 2015 23:51:10 GMT -5
Meanwhile, this tidbit from Szymborski: Fun fact - since 2008, the Red Sox have actually drafted+signed the fewest total WAR in the draft, 5.0. Diamondbacks top at 69.7. Also lists AZ picks vs. Sox picks in that period: 2005,2006,2007 all produced a fair bit of WAR. There is a lot of WAR about to be added to that list. And Goldschmidt accounts for almost half of that. But is dose explain that we were unable to produce good young players for quite some time
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 9, 2015 0:43:41 GMT -5
Meanwhile, this tidbit from Szymborski: Fun fact - since 2008, the Red Sox have actually drafted+signed the fewest total WAR in the draft, 5.0. Diamondbacks top at 69.7. Not that it's likely to improve their standing (given the poor results from 2008-2010), but it would seem to be a better overall exercise to only consider players with WAR > 0.0. Seems unfair to penalize for below replacement MLB players with overlong tryouts and not penalize for minor league busts that can't get past AA. In fact, since ever player who ends up with a career negative WAR had, at some point, far more unrealized trade value that players who never made it to MLB did, this is clearly the wrong way to do it. Not to mention the fact that those negative WARs are all overstated or even non-negative, as I pointed out elsewhere just a day or two ago. Oh, and the fact that (as others have pointed out) this is essentially an assessment of two drafts, 2009 and 2010, which is kind of meaningless.
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Post by sibbysisti on Sept 9, 2015 6:41:55 GMT -5
Last night's game turned out just as I envision the rest of the season: we get a quality start from one of our SPs, bullpen gets blamed for the loss, and we pick up ground in the 2016 sweepstakes.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 9, 2015 7:01:15 GMT -5
I agree that the issue of the single protected vs. unprotected pick may not be all that much of an issue given the market circumstances this winter.
My issue is that right now the Sox' draft position is intermingled with that of 9 other teams. Given that this season is lost anyway, I'd like to finish lower in the standings than as many as possible of those 9 teams to get more draft slot $ and to be able to pick before all those teams, given how well the team seems to have done in making selections in recent years. Even if their evaluation/drafting slips somewhat under the new regime, the quality put in place by the previous regime should remain through this coming draft at least.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 9, 2015 9:17:02 GMT -5
I've decided I specifically want the Red Sox to NOT get a protected pick, specifically because I don't want them paying market value for any QO-likely free agents. Heyward is really great and Upton is pretty cool too but they aren't big enough upgrades to be worth the cost given the current roster. If the cost includes something like the #12 pick and that makes them more likely to forgo a bad investment, that's all the more reason for me to root for the Red Sox to win now.
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