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What Can Be Done to Fix the Sox?
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 1, 2015 11:17:36 GMT -5
-Win Now - build a team designed to win now (as in 2016). The problem is I don't think they can do this without bringing in an ace and a #2, so that Buchholz slots in at number 3. They can absolutely win a WS with just the addition of a single frontline starter. You do have to hope that Buchholz is healthy during the post-season, of course. But X, Buchholz, ERod, and Porcello pitching back to his previous track record is a really damn good post-season rotation. The post-season is too much of a crapshoot to make the upgrade from Porcello-revitalized (or Buchholz's injury replacement in something like 20% of your scenarios) to extra ace worth the cost. The key (in case the bold type didn't make this clear!) is to fix Porcello so that he's the #2 / #3 starter he was in Detroit. Acquiring 2 starters means trading Miley (which I'm fine with) and having Owens and Johnson start in AAA, with Wright in the MLB pen. I'm comfortable with acquiring just one guy, and either trading Miley to open a rotation spot for Johnson or Owens, or keeping him to develop them further. IOW, if you trade Miley, it's because he has value and you think that Owens or Johnson will be at least as good. (Which is why they really should be in the rotation the rest of the way -- a six-man rotation including Wright, BTW).
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 1, 2015 11:39:51 GMT -5
The terrible thing is that they're probably going to have to put up with a half season+ of terrible Buchholz because he has been out long enough to forget how to pitch and he has to learn all over again. That is, if he doesn't need TJS. If he does, I'd just decline the option.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 1, 2015 12:53:31 GMT -5
Looking through the hitting and pitching averages of the major leagues and comparing those of the Sox, it is not hard to see where major improvements are going to be necessary for the team to be competitive. The pitching has to be improved dramatically. The hitting also needs some improvement.
ERA QS ER R BB SO BAA AL 3.90 51 397 430 286 768 .253 NL 3.77 54 383 416 292 787 .254 BOS 4.50 49 463 500 300 767 .266 27th 19th 28th 28th 21st 16th 25th
R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB% K% BA OBP SLG OPS ISO wOBA wRC+ BOS 432 916 161 22 94 408 7.8 17.2 .256 .319 .392 .711 .136 .311 94 13th 7th 21st 11th 13th 15th 11th 2nd 10th 11th 17th 15th 17th 14th 20th
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Post by xanderbogaerts2 on Aug 1, 2015 14:24:53 GMT -5
Henry Owens First 12 Starts 61.1 IP 26 ER 42 BB 51 SO 3.64 ERA .196 BA .632 OPS Last 9 Starts 58.0 IP 17 ER 14 BB 52 SO 2.64 ERA .190 BA .531 OPS
To start the fixing process, Owens along with Johnson need to be called up.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Aug 1, 2015 14:48:06 GMT -5
Henry Owens First 12 Starts 61.1 IP 26 ER 42 BB 51 SO 3.64 ERA .196 BA .632 OPS Last 9 Starts 58.0 IP 17 ER 14 BB 52 SO 2.64 ERA .190 BA .531 OPS To start the fixing process, Owens along with Johnson need to be called up. From day 1 Henry has always made the adjustments necessary to get better and advance. As you can see from these figures, Owens is always somewhat difficult to hit. He always has. The improvement control wise of course helped tremendously. I sure wish after Kelly's start today, we decide to let Johnson and Owens receive consistent starts. I would not be surprised if one (maybe both) shows enough to be seriously considered for a rotation spot. August is here front office. Start figuring out if these two can be able contenders for the rotation going forward.
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Post by blizzards39 on Aug 1, 2015 15:30:40 GMT -5
Why is Kelly not being used in the pen and tested already? He should never start a game for this team ever ever again. Yep Yet again
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 1, 2015 17:05:33 GMT -5
The terrible thing is that they're probably going to have to put up with a half season+ of terrible Buchholz because he has been out long enough to forget how to pitch and he has to learn all over again. That is, if he doesn't need TJS. If he does, I'd just decline the option. You are correct. That is part of his cycle. I was thinking at $13 million he's a good value, even at 130 innings. However, assuming he doesn't need TJS, and he might - who knows, when he gets hurt, he comes back ineffective making some of us want to see him released or demoted to AAA or deported to another planet, and that's when he becomes Cy Young Jr. again. Next in the cycle for 2016 is ineffective Clay Buchholz, so if that pattern holds up, that would be a waste of $13 million. Maybe he'll need TJS and the decision will be easy.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 1, 2015 17:21:20 GMT -5
I would not pick up his option under any circumstances. I might consider re-signing him but not for $13M. He's won 73 games in nine seasons, and was sensational in only 3 1/2 of those seasons, one of them being his no-hitter first season, the half being this year. That amount of money could be better spent.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 1, 2015 17:21:28 GMT -5
-Win Now - build a team designed to win now (as in 2016). The problem is I don't think they can do this without bringing in an ace and a #2, so that Buchholz slots in at number 3. They can absolutely win a WS with just the addition of a single frontline starter. You do have to hope that Buchholz is healthy during the post-season, of course. But X, Buchholz, ERod, and Porcello pitching back to his previous track record is a really damn good post-season rotation. The post-season is too much of a crapshoot to make the upgrade from Porcello-revitalized (or Buchholz's injury replacement in something like 20% of your scenarios) to extra ace worth the cost. The key (in case the bold type didn't make this clear!) is to fix Porcello so that he's the #2 / #3 starter he was in Detroit. Acquiring 2 starters means trading Miley (which I'm fine with) and having Owens and Johnson start in AAA, with Wright in the MLB pen. I'm comfortable with acquiring just one guy, and either trading Miley to open a rotation spot for Johnson or Owens, or keeping him to develop them further. IOW, if you trade Miley, it's because he has value and you think that Owens or Johnson will be at least as good. (Which is why they really should be in the rotation the rest of the way -- a six-man rotation including Wright, BTW). While Buchholz has the talent to be a good post-season pitcher. It's extremely unlikely he'd be available that late in a season given his track record. I'm not picking up his option. I'd rather take a shot with Cueto or Price. Or Grienke. If, I think we can win now. I don't. But, if our front offic wants to win next year. They should try to upgrade Buchholz for cash. If he wants an incentive-laden deal, I'd talk to him. But, I've seen enough. I know he's hurt. But, our season ended when he walked off the mound. Can't happen again.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 1, 2015 17:27:52 GMT -5
It's time to bring up Johnson and Owens. Kelly should go to the bullpen. I think he could do very well there. Wright was impressive but I think he also belongs in the pen. In fact, I think the two of them could significantly improve the bullpen. The rotation now should be Porcello, Rodriguez, Miley, Johnson and Owens.
That rotation is necessary in order to have an off-season player acquisition strategy that makes sense. I think the Sox still will need to add at least one ace. There needs to be an anchor to this rotation, someone with more experience and greater accomplishment. I think Miley is the best candidate for trading. Porcello probably will be hard to trade because of his contract. Johnson also might be a candidate for a trade but he needs to be seen more in the majors before that can be decided.
I'm feeling bullish today because I've been pitching Shaw for weeks. He should be playing regularly, mostly at 1B where I think he is better suited. However, from what I could tell he wasn't bad at third today, but I only heard about two-thirds of the game.
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Post by larrycook on Aug 1, 2015 17:31:17 GMT -5
With all the lefties we have, Rodriguez, Johnson, Owens and Miley, does that automatically take us out of the price sweepstakes in the offseason?
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 1, 2015 17:33:19 GMT -5
No because one or two or those lefties could be traded in a deal for another starter, or for a slugger.
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Post by bigpapismangosalsa on Aug 1, 2015 19:18:18 GMT -5
The Red Sox have a top 5 (at worst) farm system in the game, we just need to let these players start playing in the major leagues. However, even as these players get to the major leagues, there is generally an adjustment period - as there is going to be with almost every young player who isn't named Mike Trout or Sonny Gray. These guys are the extreme of the extreme and will always be the exception to the rule. Look at Clayton Kershaw's first year in the big leagues, over 22 starts he put up a rather pedestrian 4.26ERA; Scherzer in his first three full seasons went 4.12; 3.50; 4.43 before becoming the dominant force he has been since. Adam Jones might be the best single player in the AL East - he didn't have an above 90 OPS+ until his third season (105OPS+). Everyone on this board would love to have Manny Machado as our 3b and he was roughly average his first two seasons in the bigs (98OPS+; 102OPS+). Kids take time to develop - but they MUST get that time in the majors.
So, how do we fix the Red Sox. Quite simply we need to get Henry Owens, Brian Johnson, Rusney Castillo and Jackie Bradley Jr into as many games as is humanly possible over the next 8 weeks while getting the most playing time we can for Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, Blake Swihart and Eduardo Rodriguez. How should we do this for the remainder of the year:
Step 1 - Move to a 6 man rotation for the remainder of the season. Miley, Rodriguez, Porcello, Johnson, Owens, Wright. This will allow each of the young arms to get exposure to the major leagues for the rest of the year while not going over their innings limit whereas a traditional 5 man rotation would not. I have it staggered in this manner so that Hanigan catches Day 1, Swihart Day 2, Porcello Day 3, Swihart Days 4, 5 and 6. It also allows Procello to continue working with Hanigan.
Step 2 - Kelly moves to the bullpen. This should be obvious in my first point, but in case it isn't, I'm not saying to simply get rid of him. However, quite literally, he has no value as a starting pitcher - he might in the pen.
Step 3 - Bench Pablo Sandoval. We paid him $20M per year, and unfortunately I think that is a completely sunk cost. From his peak in 2011 at age 24 his OPS+ has gone 155; 123; 116; 113 and now 88 this year. While admitting that it isn't a perfect stat, his defense has similarly declined, as his defensive WAR went (over the same time frame) 13.9, 2.4, -2.8; 5.3; -12.1 this year. He has been trending down offensively for 5 straight years now. Defensively he's trended down in 4 of the last 5. I understand that he's being paid $20M per year, but honestly I think the team would be better served to have him only hurting them financially and mitigating the time hurting them on the field. I think he's completely done as a productive every day baseball player and running him out there only ensures that we're getting atrocious prodcution offensively and defensively at third. If he has a problem with this - good - tell him to get back into shape where he at least gives us some defensive value at third. If he doesn't like that, try and negotiate a buyout or ride the bench.
Step 4 - I would only move Napoli if we can get a decent prospect for him. If there are no takers, you have a 3 guys for two positions platoon between Napoli, Holt and Shaw at first and third base once Pedroia comes back (Holt clearly plays 2b until then).
Step 5 - Release Breslow and Masterson. Replace them with anyone from AAA (Barnes, Light, Escobar, Hembree, Ramirez, Aro are my personal order of preference). See if anyone sticks.
Line Up (until Pedroia and Betts get back) is C - Swihart / Hanigan; 1b - Napoli; 2b - Holt; 3b - Shaw; SS - Bogaerts; LF - Ramirez; CF - Bradley Jr; RF - Castillo; DH - Ortiz. Obviously when they're ready Pedroia goes to 2b; Betts to CF and Bradley Jr, Castillo and Ramirez rotate on the corners with Ramirez occasionally in the DH spot but clearly being the starter in LF. Six man rotation as listed above.
If in the off-season we can move Sandoval for someone taking literally any money or giving us any prospect, great, but I think that any plan with him being a starter going forward is simply dooming a position offensively and defensively. He is going to be Ben Cherington's "Julio Lugo", hopefully that comes complete with allowing us to win another WS while paying him.
I would decline the option for Buchholz and increase the amount of money we have to spend in the off-season from around $22M to more like $35M. Bring in a new "head" of professional scouting because Baird has had pretty disastrous results the past two seasons so something is clearly amiss there. Yes, I understand the Buchholz can be "worth" $13M even for only half a season, but having him would either prevent a decent starter from signing on here or even worse would take starts away from one of Rodriguez, Johnson or Owens. He cannot be depended on at all, so in my opinion he has to go. If someone claims him in August, work out a deal for the best prospect possible.
Use the next two months to evaluate the kids in the rotation. Assume that next season we have (for sure) Porcello, Miley and Rodriguez in the rotation in some order. Hopefully one of Johnson or Owens shows us enough to assume that one of them can be in that group as well with the other either traded or back in Pawtucket with Steven Wright for depth. Bring in whomever of Buehrle, Chen, Estrada, Fister, Iwakuma, Lackey or Simon will take the shortest duration deal. If both Owens and Johnson fail miserably, bring in two of those pitchers. If somehow we hit the prospect lottery and all three of Rodriguez, Johnson and Owens show enough to pencil them in as starters, even better.
Go into 2016 with: CF - Betts; 2b - Pedroia, SS - Boagerts; DH - Ortiz; LF - Ramirez; RF - Castillo; C - Swihart; 3b - Holt; 1b - Shaw; bench is Hanigan, Sandoval, Bradley Jr, and I wouldn't even be against Napoli coming back if he's willing to accept a lessend role (only facing LHP) for like half the price.
Rotation will most likely be some manner of Porcello, Miley, Rodriugez, Johnson (I think he is more likely to have MLB success than Owens, but if this is Owens harnessing his admittedly better stuff, awesome) and I'll say Buehrle.
The pen would include Uehara, Tazawa, Layne and Kelly. Building a shut down pen is where I would spend the money and I'd look for guys like Tommy Hunter, Casey Jannsen and Tony Sipp.
Stay away from long term big money FA. Use that money to lock up the kids who pan out OR whatever young pitcher / first baseman we trade for IF we go that route. Since Warner, Henry and Lucchino took over, we have had basically very little success with long term FA signings, so stay out of that game. Literally, the two best I can think of have been JD Drew and John Lackey and neither of those even were slam dunk "wins" so to speak. The short term, mid money moves have either worked out very well (Millar, Mueller, Napoli and Stephen Drew's first deals), but they certainly don't cripple the franchise (Clement, Wells, Victorino, Napoli's second deal).
Sorry for the long post - this is a long winded way of saying things really aren't that bleak, so long as we don't go for a quick fix. Play the kids and supplement them with short term veteran deals. Only spend big on elite talent that you extend and to continually restock the farm system. Try to use some young talent to acquire names that come available with two years left on their deals, focusing on SP and 1b, and spending the frist year to see how they adjust to Boston and then lock them up, even with market deals. I'm not sure who these would be, and I don't think this is the thread to just throw in "trade for this player" dream scenarios, but make the calls.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 1, 2015 21:51:42 GMT -5
I would not pick up his option under any circumstances. I might consider re-signing him but not for $13M. He's won 73 games in nine seasons, and was sensational in only 3 1/2 of those seasons, one of them being his no-hitter first season, the half being this year. That amount of money could be better spent. Even if he never pitches another inning this year, he's been worth $18M (using bWAR; FanGraphs, whose WAR for pitchers is predictive rather than descriptive, has it at $25M) . He's only done 4.5 seasons of pitching over 7 seasons, but he's so good that he's still averaged $20M of value a year, at today's prices. There's literally no easier off-season decision than to pick up his $13M option for next year, especially since he has a $13.5M option for the year after. Even if he misses his usual amount of time over the next two years, and is relatively ineffective for his usual amount of time, if you do not pick up those options, you will need to spend a lot of extra money to match what he is likely to produce (plus whoever fills in his missing innings). I believe the technical term for the amount of extra money is "a s---load."
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 1, 2015 22:38:42 GMT -5
So, how do we fix the Red Sox. Quite simply we need to get Henry Owens, Brian Johnson, Rusney Castillo and Jackie Bradley Jr into as many games as is humanly possible over the next 8 weeks while getting the most playing time we can for Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, Blake Swihart and Eduardo Rodriguez. How should we do this for the remainder of the year: Step 1 - Move to a 6 man rotation for the remainder of the season. Miley, Rodriguez, Porcello, Johnson, Owens, Wright. This will allow each of the young arms to get exposure to the major leagues for the rest of the year while not going over their innings limit whereas a traditional 5 man rotation would not. I have it staggered in this manner so that Hanigan catches Day 1, Swihart Day 2, Porcello Day 3, Swihart Days 4, 5 and 6. It also allows Procello to continue working with Hanigan. Step 2 - Kelly moves to the bullpen. This should be obvious in my first point, but in case it isn't, I'm not saying to simply get rid of him. However, quite literally, he has no value as a starting pitcher - he might in the pen. Step 5 - Release Breslow and Masterson. Replace them with anyone from AAA (Barnes, Light, Escobar, Hembree, Ramirez, Aro are my personal order of preference). See if anyone sticks. I agree completely with your "quite simply" and with your steps 1 and 2, and with 5 in general (haven't given much thought to a pecking order). I'd go further and say that Kelly should be pitching in relief 3 times a week. Find out where he slots in next year's pen. But some of the rest of your proposals either don't fit the overall design, or are too pessimistic. I've already addressed Buchholz's option. What percentage of guys who declined offensively for four straight seasons starting at age 25 declined again in their fifth year? I believe it's less than half. It's not unusual for guys to perform disappointingly in their first year after signing a FA contract, especially in a big market city; Carlos Beltran went 6.8 bWAR (KC and Htn), then 2.9, 8.2 at ages 28 and 29 for the Mets. And almost all of Sandoval's negative defensive value was accrued in the first 60 games or so; he's been nearly average since. You keep Sandoval in the lineup. I think his own pride will motivate him to work out in the offseason, but I agree that you let him know that you expect that. I think the odds are very decent than you can get a couple of 2.0 - 3.0 WAR seasons for him, and then trade him for more than nothing to make way for Moncada or Devers. I certainly am willing to risk the small chance that he's as bad again next year, versus the much greater likelihood that he's still capable and not yet a worthless sunk cost. Per your opening statement, when Betts is back, he, Castillo, and JBJ need to play every day, and it would help immensely for next year to find out how good a 1B Hanley Ramirez can be, without it hurting you at all if he can't play there. And it's entirely unfair to Napoli to bench him in order to give trials to a pair of young players, when he's in his walk year; that sort of move makes guys reluctant to sign with you. So he needs to be moved in a waiver deal ASAP, for whatever we can get.
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wcp3
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Post by wcp3 on Aug 2, 2015 7:25:20 GMT -5
Benching a guy who's barely hitting over .200 is perfectly fair.
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Post by arzjake on Aug 2, 2015 9:32:52 GMT -5
I would not pick up his option under any circumstances. I might consider re-signing him but not for $13M. He's won 73 games in nine seasons, and was sensational in only 3 1/2 of those seasons, one of them being his no-hitter first season, the half being this year. That amount of money could be better spent. Closer in waiting?
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Post by arzjake on Aug 2, 2015 9:39:21 GMT -5
Benching a guy who's barely hitting over .200 is perfectly fair. If your referring to Napoli, he must go. I don't understand the front office logic. 1 game doesn't define a career in regards to Shaw, give the player a shot, either at 3B or 1B and see what you got. Same with Sam Travis. Travis in AA should get a call up in Sept to gain experience, doesn't need to play everyday, a game or two a week and see where it goes.. Why are Owens and Johnson not in the Rotation? I don't get it.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 2, 2015 12:18:28 GMT -5
Benching a guy who's barely hitting over .200 is perfectly fair. If your referring to Napoli, he must go. I don't understand the front office logic. 1 game doesn't define a career in regards to Shaw, give the player a shot, either at 3B or 1B and see what you got. Same with Sam Travis. Travis in AA should get a call up in Sept to gain experience, doesn't need to play everyday, a game or two a week and see where it goes.. Why are Owens and Johnson not in the Rotation? I don't get it. I would definitely wait on Travis. Let the guy start tapping into some more power before having him skip AAA. You can promote him to Pawtucket in September if he stays scorching hot in August.
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Post by soxfan4life on Aug 2, 2015 13:09:39 GMT -5
Not sure if thiswas mentioned but Bradley needs to play either to see if he is one of the outfielders to go with next season so they can trade Margo for something.I think Kelly needs to go to the bull pen and see what he can do .I would like to see them give Cecchini and/or Shaw a shot at 1b and see what Brian Johnson and Henry Owens can do as starters either for next year for the Sox or as trade chips.In the off season I would like to see them try and sign Tyler Clippard as a late inning reliever and Cueto as a starter.I also would like to see them at least ask about what it would take to land Sonny Gray in Boston.They have plenty of guys in the minor leagues that would be of interest to other teams.Since they should be drafting in the top 10 in next year's draft, they will be able to replenish some of what they will lose in trades.
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Post by brnichols19873 on Aug 2, 2015 13:15:14 GMT -5
Benching a guy who's barely hitting over .200 is perfectly fair. If your referring to Napoli, he must go. I don't understand the front office logic. 1 game doesn't define a career in regards to Shaw, give the player a shot, either at 3B or 1B and see what you got. Same with Sam Travis. Travis in AA should get a call up in Sept to gain experience, doesn't need to play everyday, a game or two a week and see where it goes.. Why are Owens and Johnson not in the Rotation? I don't get it. ESPN has johnson listed as starter for Friday in NYC and 7 days later against Seattle... espn.go.com/mlb/team/schedule/_/name/bos/boston-red-sox
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Aug 2, 2015 13:52:22 GMT -5
Dalier Hinojosa. 2 perfect innings vs. Braves this weekend.
a pitcher in his prime with 3 option years ... his roster spot here filled by Machi. Or filled by nobody in AAA.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 2, 2015 14:03:19 GMT -5
With talk pf Buchholz value (and I'm for picking up the option) and Eric's point about getting a frontline starter, this little tidbit from Jon Daniels is interesting:
@jim_Duquette: Jon Daniels - in breaking down the financial part of the Hamels deal said "the net of it puts him on our books at around 12m/ year for 3 yrs
Add to that he got Hamels for the 49th and 51st guys from the Top 100, plus two guys well out of the Top 100. That's not Betts, Swihart, Moncada, Devers, Margot OR Owens. That's more like Johnson and Guerra and two from the Sox Prospects 11-30 guys.
If you're trying to plug holes, trade partners are invaulable. Not sure what Ben offered but when I see a deal like this it drives me nuts knowing the gaps this team has.
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Post by jdb on Aug 2, 2015 14:30:07 GMT -5
I don't think Hamels would have waived his no trade to come here. Sounds like us, Houston and the Jays couldn't even get in the game.
Agree we have to pick up Buchs option but going forward I'd like a top tier guy and another solid #2 or good #3. I'd look into dealing Miley and have the 3-5 spots as Buch, Porcelo and Erod. The top two I'd sign a FA and make a deal.
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Post by blizzards39 on Aug 2, 2015 14:40:00 GMT -5
I don't think Hamels would have waived his no trade to come here. Sounds like us, Houston and the Jays couldn't even get in the game. Agree we have to pick up Buchs option but going forward I'd like a top tier guy and another solid #2 or good #3. I'd look into dealing Miley and have the 3-5 spots as Buch, Porcelo and Erod. The top two I'd sign a FA and make a deal. Completly agree. I'm hoping trade for a young controllable guy. I know it's unlikely to get Gray but? Prob Ross. And sign one if the names. Think I perfer Zimmerman. RH and may be a litl cheaper. Trust him more than cueto. Price and greinke will be rediculous. Don't want anything to do with samarjia.
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