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What Can Be Done to Fix the Sox?
danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 3, 2015 17:08:14 GMT -5
I really don't understand how in the same post some of you who are complaining about the Hanley and Sandoval contracts are also advocating going 6+ years for Cueto at big dollars. Let's look at all the 30+ yr old big money pitchers: Justin Verlander Cliff Lee CC Sabathia Jon Lester Adam Wainwright CJ Wilson Tim Lincecum Notice some bad contracts in there? It's insanely stupid to continue to do the same thing over and over again and think it will work. Throwing big money at a player who's almost guaranteed to be done before the end of the contract being that move. I'd rather put a package together for Gray instead as at least then you know you will be getting huge surplus value. Carrasco is another good solution as he's very cost controlled and has fairly low mileage on his arm. A move I'd love to see them do though is to start targeting previous highly ranked prospects who aren't viewed quite as high now. Gausman being the type of guy I'm talking about. I'd argue someone like Gausman is a good bet to be better than Cueto over the next 6 years at a fraction of the cost. See my post above about when such contracts can be justified. I like the idea of a deal for Gray, but Beane may not be ready for that unless he is just blown away. Gausman has been doing better recently and Orioles are high on him. I seriously doubt they would trade him to the Sox. And while trying to get those undervalued prospects is a good idea, its successful execution is very tricky. First of all, the acquiring team has to have some very good intel on the player and be very good at interpreting it, things the Sox do not seem to be particularly good at. BTW, Beane is a genius at this, one of the major reasons he has been successful, and a reason to be careful in dealing with him.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on Aug 3, 2015 17:26:40 GMT -5
Joe Ross could be a good target. I still think Bauer will have a very nice peak.
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Post by slam761 on Aug 3, 2015 19:02:00 GMT -5
Joe Ross could be a good target. I still think Bauer will have a very nice peak. I don't see why the Nats would want to trade Ross with Fister and Zimmermann both probably leaving after this season.
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Post by jdb on Aug 3, 2015 19:16:15 GMT -5
Joe Ross could be a good target. I still think Bauer will have a very nice peak. I don't see why the Nats would want to trade Ross with Fister and Zimmermann both probably leaving after this season. And Strasburg a FA after 2016. Johnson is a big blow hopefully his elbow is fine. He could have helped the rotation or have been an NLB ready arm that was a piece to a bigger deal.
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Post by congusgambler33 on Aug 3, 2015 20:27:53 GMT -5
It doesn't matter what the Sox do. they will get fleeced in every move they make as long as they still have Farrell and Cherington in charge.
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Post by 07redsox on Aug 3, 2015 20:33:13 GMT -5
It doesn't matter what the Sox do. they will get fleeced in every move they make as long as they still have Farrell and Cherington in charge. While completely ignoring the fact that you seem to think Cherington can never make a deal without getting the short end of it- What does Farrell have to do with the moves that they make?
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Post by nexus on Aug 4, 2015 10:23:57 GMT -5
I think there are enough people involved in personnel decisions around the league that a corner outfielder who hits .290ish with maybe 15 homers is probably not going to get that kind of money. I definitely think we should check in and find out what his market's like, cause he'd be a great fit, and if we can get him at a reasonable price, that frees us up to deal someone like Margot as part of a package for a good starter I imagine there are a lot of fans, not FO people, who believe he's not going to get that kind of money. And I agree with the thought it would be a tough PR sell on the surface. But I do think he'll get offers for 7+ years and north of $150m. I am unsure people realize the value of acquiring via FA an established, above-average position player during their age 26-32 seasons. We know a market for Heyward's skillset exists or else Victorino would have never received offers for as high as $44m guaranteed as a 32 year old OF coming off a 'bad' 3.0 fWAR season. I guess I should disclose I am not advocating the Sox go all-in for Heyward. Rather, if given a choice to pursue either Heyward or one of the top-tier FA pitchers, the decision for me is obvious if the goal is to maximize the return.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 4, 2015 10:50:15 GMT -5
Once again, all it takes is one or two teams to set the price way higher than the consensus.
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Post by dridiot on Aug 4, 2015 11:51:20 GMT -5
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 4, 2015 12:31:33 GMT -5
Just want to point out that a form of this trade has been percolating in the trade proposal subforum for a while.
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Post by ctfisher on Aug 4, 2015 12:41:34 GMT -5
I imagine there are a lot of fans, not FO people, who believe he's not going to get that kind of money. And I agree with the thought it would be a tough PR sell on the surface. But I do think he'll get offers for 7+ years and north of $150m. I am unsure people realize the value of acquiring via FA an established, above-average position player during their age 26-32 seasons. We know a market for Heyward's skillset exists or else Victorino would have never received offers for as high as $44m guaranteed as a 32 year old OF coming off a 'bad' 3.0 fWAR season. I guess I should disclose I am not advocating the Sox go all-in for Heyward. Rather, if given a choice to pursue either Heyward or one of the top-tier FA pitchers, the decision for me is obvious if the goal is to maximize the return. I agree that he would be extremely valuable, but the market for Victorino doesn't exactly indicate that Heyward will get more than $150m. Think about the free agent position players that have signed for similar contracts in the past: I don't think there's a single one without a 30 homer season on their resume, or at the very least, several 20 homer seasons with high batting averages, and I think GM's see that and it gives them leverage.
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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 4, 2015 12:55:03 GMT -5
I would of been (or will be) all over an aggressive push for Heyward if we traded Castillo. With Castillo still on the books and Hanley, Betts, Bradley, and Holt I don't think it makes sense with the pitching holes we have.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 4, 2015 14:06:38 GMT -5
I would of been (or will be) all over an aggressive push for Heyward if we traded Castillo. With Castillo still on the books and Hanley, Betts, Bradley, and Holt I don't think it makes sense with the pitching holes we have. Yep. Castillo or JBJ makes Heyward redundant at this point. Both probably have to go for there to be room for Heyward.
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Post by jmei on Aug 4, 2015 14:37:08 GMT -5
I imagine there are a lot of fans, not FO people, who believe he's not going to get that kind of money. And I agree with the thought it would be a tough PR sell on the surface. But I do think he'll get offers for 7+ years and north of $150m. I am unsure people realize the value of acquiring via FA an established, above-average position player during their age 26-32 seasons. We know a market for Heyward's skillset exists or else Victorino would have never received offers for as high as $44m guaranteed as a 32 year old OF coming off a 'bad' 3.0 fWAR season. I guess I should disclose I am not advocating the Sox go all-in for Heyward. Rather, if given a choice to pursue either Heyward or one of the top-tier FA pitchers, the decision for me is obvious if the goal is to maximize the return. I agree that he would be extremely valuable, but the market for Victorino doesn't exactly indicate that Heyward will get more than $150m. Think about the free agent position players that have signed for similar contracts in the past: I don't think there's a single one without a 30 homer season on their resume, or at the very least, several 20 homer seasons with high batting averages, and I think GM's see that and it gives them leverage. Eh, teams have also been willing to give significant money to players with significant defensive value and more well-rounded offensive value. Think Joe Mauer or Buster Posey or Jacoby Ellsbury. The best comp is probably old friend Carl Crawford, who got $142m five years ago despite being a corner outfielder with good but not great offensive production and a lot of his value coming on defense.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 4, 2015 14:37:49 GMT -5
I would of been (or will be) all over an aggressive push for Heyward if we traded Castillo. With Castillo still on the books and Hanley, Betts, Bradley, and Holt I don't think it makes sense with the pitching holes we have. Actually seeing Castillo get to play lately, I actually think he could be a good get and earn out that contract if he can stay healthy. Not that I wouldn't love Hayward, but he'll cost more. Much rather see them hang onto JBJ and move Hanley to 3rd or even 1st.
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Post by ctfisher on Aug 4, 2015 14:53:11 GMT -5
I agree that he would be extremely valuable, but the market for Victorino doesn't exactly indicate that Heyward will get more than $150m. Think about the free agent position players that have signed for similar contracts in the past: I don't think there's a single one without a 30 homer season on their resume, or at the very least, several 20 homer seasons with high batting averages, and I think GM's see that and it gives them leverage. Eh, teams have also been willing to give significant money to players with significant defensive value and more well-rounded offensive value. Think Joe Mauer or Buster Posey or Jacoby Ellsbury. The best comp is probably old friend Carl Crawford, who got $142m five years ago despite being a corner outfielder with good but not great offensive production and a lot of his value coming on defense. Mauer won batting titles as a catcher, Posey is the best hitting catcher in the game, and Crawford and Ellsbury both consistently stole 50+ bases, not to mention that Crawford actually hit for power more consistently than Heyward has, and even Ellsbury was only a year or two removed from 30 homers and being arguably the best player in the AL. Even Mauer was only a year removed from hitting 28 homers and putting up 7.6 WAR when he signed his deal, and he's a hometown guy as well, which meant they probably overpayed a little. I'm not saying Heyward isn't going to get a big deal, but if he gets a whole lot more than about $100m over 5 or 6 years, I'll be very surprised. He's very clearly not regarded in the same way as any of those players were when they signed their deals; all of them were perennial all-stars, and most of them had better offensive track records in one way or another
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 4, 2015 14:54:19 GMT -5
JBJ has got to start hitting soon or he will run out of chances with the Sox. Castillo is showing some life but he has to do better. Neither one right now is the right fielder the team needs. It would be great if one would become that player, but it has to be done soon. Otherwise the Sox are going to have no choice but to get one from another team. I am not the biggest fan of Hayward but he would be an upgrade.
I don't think Sandoval would be seen so much as a liability if there was adequate offensive production from 1B and RF. The team has had almost nothing from those two positions all season while Sandoval has hit some and most of his major fielding blunders were early in the season. He has been OK since then. However, if the reports of his weight-gaining are true then the Sox have to address that - and from what Farrell said the other day, I think they already are. In any case, even though he is not doing as well as expected, he is not the reason the Sox have done so poorly.
First, and foremost, the pitching has been terrible and now it is going through the turnover that it needed. However, that may not be good enough.
Second, the hitting has been average. It needs to be better than that. That can happen by filling the holes at 1B and RF with good hitters, either from within, or by acquisition. Hanley should be tried at 1B, the sooner the better. I don't think a really good 1B can be acquired right now.
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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 4, 2015 15:23:53 GMT -5
I would of been (or will be) all over an aggressive push for Heyward if we traded Castillo. With Castillo still on the books and Hanley, Betts, Bradley, and Holt I don't think it makes sense with the pitching holes we have. Actually seeing Castillo get to play lately, I actually think he could be a good get and earn out that contract if he can stay healthy. Not that I wouldn't love Hayward, but he'll cost more. Much rather see them hang onto JBJ and move Hanley to 3rd or even 1st. But then I can't fantasize about a defensive set up of Betts LF, Bradley CF, Heyward RF
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 4, 2015 15:25:07 GMT -5
Actually seeing Castillo get to play lately, I actually think he could be a good get and earn out that contract if he can stay healthy. Not that I wouldn't love Hayward, but he'll cost more. Much rather see them hang onto JBJ and move Hanley to 3rd or even 1st. But then I can't fantasize about a defensive set up of Betts LF, Bradley CF, Heyward RF What, Betts-Bradley-Castillo doesn't do anything for ya? That's levitation still some range, homes.
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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 4, 2015 15:48:16 GMT -5
But then I can't fantasize about a defensive set up of Betts LF, Bradley CF, Heyward RF What, Betts-Bradley-Castillo doesn't do anything for ya? That's levitation still some range, homes. Wasn't trying to knock Castillo, but Heyward and Bradley are the best at those positions in my opinion. While Betts and Castillo cover ground, their arms are noticeably off from Heyward and Bradley.
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Post by nexus on Aug 4, 2015 16:09:52 GMT -5
Eh, teams have also been willing to give significant money to players with significant defensive value and more well-rounded offensive value. Think Joe Mauer or Buster Posey or Jacoby Ellsbury. The best comp is probably old friend Carl Crawford, who got $142m five years ago despite being a corner outfielder with good but not great offensive production and a lot of his value coming on defense. Mauer won batting titles as a catcher, Posey is the best hitting catcher in the game, and Crawford and Ellsbury both consistently stole 50+ bases, not to mention that Crawford actually hit for power more consistently than Heyward has, and even Ellsbury was only a year or two removed from 30 homers and being arguably the best player in the AL. Even Mauer was only a year removed from hitting 28 homers and putting up 7.6 WAR when he signed his deal, and he's a hometown guy as well, which meant they probably overpayed a little. I'm not saying Heyward isn't going to get a big deal, but if he gets a whole lot more than about $100m over 5 or 6 years, I'll be very surprised. He's very clearly not regarded in the same way as any of those players were when they signed their deals; all of them were perennial all-stars, and most of them had better offensive track records in one way or another But the thing you continue to miss here is none of the comps mentioned above were free agents at 26. That, and literally every one of those comps experienced career/peak performance between their age 25-28 seasons. There is no precedent for Heyward, which is why I think people are going to fall off their chairs when his contract details are announced. I might be wrong, but I would take a guess he's the youngest player to hit FA since Arod in 2000. He's obviously no 2000 Arod, but he has at least established himself as an above average talent who plays excellent defense. If wins are approaching $7.5m per, someone's going to pay way more than $100m to tie him up through what should be, by historical standards, his peak performance years.
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Post by jmei on Aug 4, 2015 16:12:10 GMT -5
Eh, teams have also been willing to give significant money to players with significant defensive value and more well-rounded offensive value. Think Joe Mauer or Buster Posey or Jacoby Ellsbury. The best comp is probably old friend Carl Crawford, who got $142m five years ago despite being a corner outfielder with good but not great offensive production and a lot of his value coming on defense. Mauer won batting titles as a catcher, Posey is the best hitting catcher in the game, and Crawford and Ellsbury both consistently stole 50+ bases, not to mention that Crawford actually hit for power more consistently than Heyward has, and even Ellsbury was only a year or two removed from 30 homers and being arguably the best player in the AL. Even Mauer was only a year removed from hitting 28 homers and putting up 7.6 WAR when he signed his deal, and he's a hometown guy as well, which meant they probably overpayed a little. I'm not saying Heyward isn't going to get a big deal, but if he gets a whole lot more than about $100m over 5 or 6 years, I'll be very surprised. He's very clearly not regarded in the same way as any of those players were when they signed their deals; all of them were perennial all-stars, and most of them had better offensive track records in one way or another Well, Heyward does have a 27 home run season of his own and multiple 5+ WAR seasons, and he'll be considerably younger than any of those players were (he's on pace for four 5+ rWAR seasons, which is pretty impressive for a player yet to turn 26). You're right that those players were probably more highly regarded when they reached free agency than Heyward is, but between his age (including the fact that GMs are more conscious of aging curves these days) and inflation, I think he'll get least $130m+ guaranteed (assuming he opts for a true long-term deal and not a Porcello-esque short but high AAV deal). ADD: or what he said.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 4, 2015 16:13:33 GMT -5
Even at a conservative 4 WAR/year projection for the life of his contract, you could argue he's worth over $200 million for 7 years. I'm not sure how $/WAR works out with defensive WAR being a big part of his total value. I'm also not sure how $/WAR works out for 26 year olds vs. 30 year olds.
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Post by jdb on Aug 4, 2015 18:47:12 GMT -5
Cards just announced a billion dollar TV deal that will average $85 million per. I just don't see Heyward leaving.
Are there going to be any 23 year old+ international FAs out there? Probably another year for that P from Japan?
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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 4, 2015 19:00:24 GMT -5
Hey wards probably not leaving that division between Cubs an Cards
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