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What Can Be Done to Fix the Sox?
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 6, 2015 11:11:49 GMT -5
Pick out the next Verlander or Lincecum you want to sign. Sometimes you get 0 good years. I wanted Grienke when he was available before Dodgers signed him and was quite vocal about it here. I also advocated for Tanaka and Scherzer and Lester. Scherzer was the guy I wanted most last year because of his ability, number of pitches thrown, age, and his commitment to physical conditioning. He also has the repeater that I think may age well into number 2/3 status in years 5-7. I honestly believe an organization with these financial resources should sign one of these guys every 3-4 years. That should be part of the advantage they hold with their financial resources, and a nod to the fact that they are decidedly NOT the Cardinals (or TB or Oak when it comes to pitcher drafting, development and trades. Hell, they're not even Baltimore). There is also a quality to this where teams know who will likely be free agents 2-3 years down the road so when a good candidate for such a deal like a Grienke first time around or Scherzer comes along. Then again, I used to trust this organization with player evaluation. Last several years, not so much. ADDED: I would take a good look at Price's medicals in the off-seson and if they look good - he has had an elbow inflammation in the last couple years - I would go after him. How did you feel about Lackey and re-signing Becket? Those two were disasters. Lackey salvaged his contract, but it's hard to expect what he did. That might happen 1 out of 100 times.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Aug 6, 2015 12:11:38 GMT -5
I wanted Grienke when he was available before Dodgers signed him and was quite vocal about it here. I also advocated for Tanaka and Scherzer and Lester. Scherzer was the guy I wanted most last year because of his ability, number of pitches thrown, age, and his commitment to physical conditioning. He also has the repeater that I think may age well into number 2/3 status in years 5-7. I honestly believe an organization with these financial resources should sign one of these guys every 3-4 years. That should be part of the advantage they hold with their financial resources, and a nod to the fact that they are decidedly NOT the Cardinals (or TB or Oak when it comes to pitcher drafting, development and trades. Hell, they're not even Baltimore). There is also a quality to this where teams know who will likely be free agents 2-3 years down the road so when a good candidate for such a deal like a Grienke first time around or Scherzer comes along. Then again, I used to trust this organization with player evaluation. Last several years, not so much. ADDED: I would take a good look at Price's medicals in the off-seson and if they look good - he has had an elbow inflammation in the last couple years - I would go after him. How did you feel about Lackey and re-signing Becket? Those two were disasters. Lackey salvaged his contract, but it's hard to expect what he did. That might happen 1 out of 100 times. So don't try? Top starters are difficult to develop or to find. With the financial ability the Sox have, we should be strongly considering using that advantage. No ace looks like a losing proposition to me. After the last few years, when is enough enough? Not sure Price will want to come here, but he certainly is the one to consider along with Cueto.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 6, 2015 12:23:03 GMT -5
I wanted Grienke when he was available before Dodgers signed him and was quite vocal about it here. I also advocated for Tanaka and Scherzer and Lester. Scherzer was the guy I wanted most last year because of his ability, number of pitches thrown, age, and his commitment to physical conditioning. He also has the repeater that I think may age well into number 2/3 status in years 5-7. I honestly believe an organization with these financial resources should sign one of these guys every 3-4 years. That should be part of the advantage they hold with their financial resources, and a nod to the fact that they are decidedly NOT the Cardinals (or TB or Oak when it comes to pitcher drafting, development and trades. Hell, they're not even Baltimore). There is also a quality to this where teams know who will likely be free agents 2-3 years down the road so when a good candidate for such a deal like a Grienke first time around or Scherzer comes along. Then again, I used to trust this organization with player evaluation. Last several years, not so much. ADDED: I would take a good look at Price's medicals in the off-seson and if they look good - he has had an elbow inflammation in the last couple years - I would go after him. How did you feel about Lackey and re-signing Becket? Those two were disasters. Lackey salvaged his contract, but it's hard to expect what he did. That might happen 1 out of 100 times. I was pretty vocal about why extend Beckett before he pitched that year, esp with him coming off of injury. When they signed Lackey I figured they were letting Beckett go and was pretty surprised when they didn't. To be honest, my recollection was Lackey was the best guy available that year but not an ace. I was glad they were spending money and trying to "go for it," but if you believe, as Theo had said, that they always try to plan 5 years ahead and adjusted, I find it hard to believe Lackey was the guy they targeted with a 3 year window comprising free agents the year before him, his year, and the year after. I was pretty hard on him until I found out he was pitching hurt. Loved what he did in 13 and was livid when they traded him last year, especially for that return.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 6, 2015 12:32:56 GMT -5
I wanted Grienke when he was available before Dodgers signed him and was quite vocal about it here. I also advocated for Tanaka and Scherzer and Lester. Scherzer was the guy I wanted most last year because of his ability, number of pitches thrown, age, and his commitment to physical conditioning. He also has the repeater that I think may age well into number 2/3 status in years 5-7. I honestly believe an organization with these financial resources should sign one of these guys every 3-4 years. That should be part of the advantage they hold with their financial resources, and a nod to the fact that they are decidedly NOT the Cardinals (or TB or Oak when it comes to pitcher drafting, development and trades. Hell, they're not even Baltimore). There is also a quality to this where teams know who will likely be free agents 2-3 years down the road so when a good candidate for such a deal like a Grienke first time around or Scherzer comes along. That's awesome. You're a great judge of talent. [ballwash] Grienke was never coming to Boston. MFY was never being outbid for Tanaka. WAS was never being outbid for Scherzer. Boston was out of the Lester sweepstakes after their ill-advised ST offer. So, you're dreaming if you think the Red Sox FO did something wrong by not signing those guys (Lester excepted). Boston no longer holds a significant advantage w/r/t financial resources. There's a lot of TV/cable money floating around. Oh, and David Price is not coming to Boston.And you're obviously psychic, retroactively. Grienke said he would go to any team that would pay him one more dollar than all the other teams, and admitted it again after he got to LA. Tanaka was a post and a bid. Sox had every opportunity to do that and beat the Yankees. (I bet you stated they'd never get Moncada, too - until you didn't). Scherzer was on the open market. You can't tell me the Nats could outbid the Sox if the Sox wanted him. Price is the same way. You want him, go get him. Or fall back to Cueto if you think his arm will pass muster. This year has a couple choices, but Price would be my guy. Bonus - check the record. I was also all over Darvish and was pretty upset when they didn't get him for the $60M posting fee. Even with the injury, according to Fangraphs he will likely earn out that contract WITH the posting fee (which is a write-off that can be depreciated over the life of the contact and didn't count toward Lux Tax). Sorry, you want top talent, pay top dollar. Or lose.
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Post by joshv02 on Aug 6, 2015 12:35:57 GMT -5
This thread is awful. The conversation in here is awful. Just a bunch of posters arguing about being armchair GMs (with the worst posts about posters telling us what they previously wrote) with a few salvageable posts in between. And repetitive. And awful. At least, I suppose, it is confined.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 6, 2015 12:42:08 GMT -5
This thread is awful. The conversation in here is awful. Just a bunch of posters arguing about being armchair GMs (with the worst posts about posters telling us what they previously wrote) with a few salvageable posts in between. And repetitive. And awful. At least, I suppose, it is confined. And like virtually every other thread on this site isn't a de facto armchair GM discussion? Really?
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 6, 2015 12:53:32 GMT -5
We're not a championship team next year with Cueto or Price. Pass. And, wait to spend your money when you're on the brink. Not a couple of years early. You may only get 3-4 good year on a 7 year deal. Don't want to waste them.
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Post by joshv02 on Aug 6, 2015 12:54:28 GMT -5
No, they don't. But, I'm not a moderator and I likely shouldn't have said anything about this (50 page) behemoth. I can, and should, continue to ignore it. Its contained. My mistake for taking the bait.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 6, 2015 12:59:39 GMT -5
I think Price is the top prize, but I have trouble believing anybody will outbid the Dodgers or Yankees for his services. I think Cueto is the more realistic shot, and it's one if everything is equal I would go all out for - the guy is an ace. He's an excellent top of the rotation starter.
But my concern with him is his health, so that would have to be a green light for that deal to be signed off on.
I have trouble believing even with all their money that the Dodgers have the money to have Greinke, Kershaw, and Price in the same rotation, but I guess that's possible.
I would think the Yanks would have a greater need for Price and will be free of Sabathia's contract after next year, and will need a lefty.
I still think if it comes down to elite major league talent and it comes down to Sox/Yanks, the Yanks will get their man. I've learned the Yankees like their "proven" talent on the market, something Moncada wasn't, and I give the Sox a ton of credit for be willing to pay top dollar for elite young talent.
Now they have to do the same for proven pitching talent or they'll wind up putting a big dent in their farm system, which is the last thing they should do, because it is their farm system that will allow them to afford their expensive "proven" talent and it is their farm system that will ultimately (hopefully) return the team toward the top of the standings for significant amount of time.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 6, 2015 13:03:30 GMT -5
We're not a championship team next year with Cueto or Price. Pass. And, wait to spend your money when you're on the brink. Not a couple of years early. You may only get 3-4 good year on a 7 year deal. Don't want to waste them. I think what you're saying makes sense. It really does. My question is what should they do? Try to go 68-94 the next two years until finally the kids start to trickle in? Other teams do do that it, but I was wondering what your line of thought is. If they don't do anything, they'll definitely be on the bottom again next year, and what you're saying makes a lot of sense, sort of the way the Cubs waited to get a top notch pitcher once they felt they were contention ready.
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Post by congusgambler33 on Aug 6, 2015 14:02:04 GMT -5
The Red Sox don't seem to draft fireball throwing pitchers like the Cardinals.The Cardinals know how to develop those types of pitchers, but the Red Sox have had a few that have never Panned out. Mercedes comes to mind. He throws hard but the command is not there. for this reason they should bite the bullet and go after that ace that they never seen to develop. I was against the Lester signing simply because he got a ridiculous amount from the Cubs, but that could have been avoided had they not given him that stupid contract proposal early last year. I think that was all Lucchino. I have high hopes for Espinoza, but he is in very low minors and they have to have something going forward. Maybe a Dave Dombrowski can pry away a number 1 starter from a team like Arizona. Ya think?
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 6, 2015 14:02:06 GMT -5
This thread is awful. The conversation in here is awful. Just a bunch of posters arguing about being armchair GMs (with the worst posts about posters telling us what they previously wrote) with a few salvageable posts in between. And repetitive. And awful. At least, I suppose, it is confined. Yes, it is awful and (largely) confined. I had a much longer response but it was deleted before I could push the button. Probably for the best. Let's just say that this thread is the 2015 Red Sox bullpen of soxprospects.com.
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Post by blizzards39 on Aug 6, 2015 14:38:19 GMT -5
We're not a championship team next year with Cueto or Price. Pass. And, wait to spend your money when you're on the brink. Not a couple of years early. You may only get 3-4 good year on a 7 year deal. Don't want to waste them. You never know when u are in it or not. Baseball is a funny game that way. It only takes a .550% to be in the tournament. There is no reason for the Sox not to enter the season with this as a goal every season. That being said, I don't think that price or Cueto are coming to us, or should they be, but this is probably the deepest FA pool amongst SPs ever and the sox are defiantly in need. I would be shocked not to see at least one signing. Zimmerman is my choice. No guarantee he will produce at a top level but he should come at a bit more of a reasonable price and term. With all of are leftys we have I also think we could see a trade of one or 2 of them. in a perfect world I want a young controllable stud like Gray but this is unlikely. I think the sox can at least be considered a playoff team and not mortgage the future if 1- swing a Pablo for shields deal and play holt at 3B 2- sign Zimmerman or other FA 3-GET SOME BULLPEN HELP
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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 6, 2015 15:49:17 GMT -5
We're not a championship team next year with Cueto or Price. Pass. And, wait to spend your money when you're on the brink. Not a couple of years early. You may only get 3-4 good year on a 7 year deal. Don't want to waste them. Hanley and Sandoval have been ~ -2 fwar combined so far this year. I know many of us didn't like these signings for many different reasons, but I didn't hear anyone say they would be below replacement level. Hanley average 3.9 Fwar for his career (3.6 past 3 years) and Sandoval 2.7 Fwar for his career (2.6 past 3 years). If these two guys were a combined 3 fWAR it would give us 5 incremental wins we'd be 2 games out of .500. That's without counting Porcello's terrible year, what Ogando, Breslow, Barnes, and Mujica did out of the bullpen, what Craig did in his short time, development from E-Rod, Owens, Castillo, and Bradley, and addition of players who haven't really been a part of 2015, like Vazquez, Johnson, Light, and Shaw. This team is not that dissimilar from the Astro, Mets, or Cubs in 2014, who turned losing seasons into competitive ones. I'm not trying to suggest fWAR is the end all, be all of stats, just using it as a proxy for discussion.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 6, 2015 15:59:49 GMT -5
Although Amfox's list is maybe a bit extreme (you can get just about anyone if you're willing to pay enough) - i think it does a good job of showing how none of those top players were great fits for one reason or another. And keep in mind, overpaying by large sums of money is almost certainly going to back fire if you do it enough. But that's why Cueto is such a perfect choice. I've seen nothing indicating that he has a preference to go to any particular team and if the Red Sox have Pedro recruiting him, I imagine it would give them a leg up on the competition. That would just leave them to make a competitive/equal offer rather than blowing him away. Here is a passage to back up my thinking: www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/columnists/john-erardi/2014/07/05/john-erardi-johnny-cueto/12252109/I'm hoping he can be talked into just a 5 year deal. It may not happen. But he feels like the best fit of any free agent-to-be right now. (I also like Heyward - but I think people will be surprised by how much he gets given his age and 'top prospect potential')
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Post by Guidas on Aug 6, 2015 16:06:49 GMT -5
btw, for anyone else who believes this team should roll the dice on a high end 30 year old free agent starter, this class is better than next year's class in terms of overall depth. Here are your 2016-17 FAs Per MLB trade Rumor (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/03/2016-17-mlb-free-agents.html): If you believe this is part of the fix, then 2016-17 affords a bit more opportunity for current excellence, assuming the options below on the very good pitchers are exercised. Cueto and Price are elite. No one below without a team option is with the exception, perhaps, Strausberg, who has a red-flag injury history so is to be avoided.
Brandon Beachy (30) Andrew Cashner (30) Jesse Chavez (33) Josh Collmenter (31) — $2.25MM club option with a $150K buyout John Danks (32) Jorge De La Rosa (36) Scott Feldman (34) Dillon Gee (30) Gio Gonzalez (31) — $12MM club option with a $500K buyout Jason Hammel (34) — $10MM club option with a $2MM buyout Jeremy Hellickson (30) Derek Holland (30) — $11MM club option with a $1MM buyout Edwin Jackson (33) Kris Medlen (31) — $10MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout Matt Moore (28) — $7MM club option with a $2.5MM buyout Charlie Morton (33) — $9.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout Jon Niese (30) — $10MM club option with a $500K buyout Ivan Nova (30) Jake Peavy (36) Yusmeiro Petit (32) CC Sabathia (36) — $25MM vesting option with a $5MM buyout Stephen Strasburg (28) Josh Tomlin (32) Edinson Volquez (33) — $10MM mutual option with a $3MM buyout Jered Weaver (34) C.J. Wilson (36) Travis Wood (30)
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 6, 2015 17:01:42 GMT -5
1- swing a Pablo for shields deal and play holt at 3B 2- sign Zimmerman or other FA 3-GET SOME BULLPEN HELP Shields is a flyball pitcher who probably would get bombed in Fenway. He's not doing all that great in the biggest park in baseball. He's also too old. The pitchers with SD who should be the targets are Ross and Kimbrel. Why do you think Holt is a better choice at 3B than Pablo? He won't hit as well and his defense is no better, maybe not as good. He hits in spurts but when he plays regularly his hitting tends to drop off, as it currently has done since he took Pedroia's place. The Sox need more hitting, not less. Pablo is not the problem for the Sox. The hitting problems are at 1B and RF. Let's not have one at 3B. You may be trying to save money, which I think is a fool's errand in this day of MLB. The Sox have plenty of money and they could afford to go over the limit. However, I am not opposed to trading Sandoval so long as there is at least as good a replacement at 3B. I don't think Holt is that player. 2- I assume you mean Zimmermann the pitcher? He's not an ace. He's a middle of the rotation starter. The Sox need an ace or two. Even for the Sox, he'll be too expensive for the value he will deliver. 3- Definitely.
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 6, 2015 17:03:19 GMT -5
“@brianmacp: Cherington did not sound like the plan is to move Ramirez or Sandoval to another position in the second half. His words:” “@brianmacp: ”We’re more focused on how we continue to help guys in the spots they’re in show us what they can do, figure out what their ceilings are.“”
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 6, 2015 17:05:55 GMT -5
btw, for anyone else who believes this team should roll the dice on a high end 30 year old free agent starter, this class is better than next year's class in terms of overall depth. Here are your 2016-17 FAs Per MLB trade Rumor (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/03/2016-17-mlb-free-agents.html): If you believe this is part of the fix, then 2016-17 affords a bit more opportunity for current excellence, assuming the options below on the very good pitchers are exercised. Cueto and Price are elite. No one below without a team option is with the exception, perhaps, Strausberg, who has a red-flag injury history so is to be avoided. Brandon Beachy (30) Andrew Cashner (30) Jesse Chavez (33) Josh Collmenter (31) — $2.25MM club option with a $150K buyout John Danks (32) Jorge De La Rosa (36) Scott Feldman (34) Dillon Gee (30) Gio Gonzalez (31) — $12MM club option with a $500K buyout Jason Hammel (34) — $10MM club option with a $2MM buyout Jeremy Hellickson (30) Derek Holland (30) — $11MM club option with a $1MM buyout Edwin Jackson (33) Kris Medlen (31) — $10MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout Matt Moore (28) — $7MM club option with a $2.5MM buyout Charlie Morton (33) — $9.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout Jon Niese (30) — $10MM club option with a $500K buyout Ivan Nova (30) Jake Peavy (36) Yusmeiro Petit (32) CC Sabathia (36) — $25MM vesting option with a $5MM buyout Stephen Strasburg (28) Josh Tomlin (32) Edinson Volquez (33) — $10MM mutual option with a $3MM buyout Jered Weaver (34) C.J. Wilson (36) Travis Wood (30) Good info. Yes, it appears that if the Sox want to acquire an ace, and a trade doesn't work, they have to make their move this off-season. I like Price better than Cueto but there probably is a better chance of signing Cueto. Both will be horribly expensive.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 6, 2015 17:08:17 GMT -5
“@brianmacp: Cherington did not sound like the plan is to move Ramirez or Sandoval to another position in the second half. His words:” “@brianmacp: ”We’re more focused on how we continue to help guys in the spots they’re in show us what they can do, figure out what their ceilings are.“” He's being consistent with what he has said previously. So far as I can tell all of the "move Ramirez or Sandoval" talk has come from the media and fan sites. There's been no encouragement of the idea by the Sox. And thus, it isn't happening.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 6, 2015 19:30:42 GMT -5
All of these bad contracts should come off the books by 2020. So, it's only a matter of time before things fix themselves. Unless, of course, we acquire even more bad contracts.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 6, 2015 20:33:21 GMT -5
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Post by dcsoxfan on Aug 6, 2015 20:47:44 GMT -5
We're not a championship team next year with Cueto or Price. Pass. And, wait to spend your money when you're on the brink. Not a couple of years early. You may only get 3-4 good year on a 7 year deal. Don't want to waste them. I agree with (at least) half of this. It appears to me that each year the best team in baseball accrues something like 50 WAR or a a little more. This year's Red Sox will accumulate something like 25 WAR. They aren't even remotely likely to find that extra 25 WAR next year, and are more likely to devastate their future trying than succeed. On the other hand, a team probably only needs around 35 to 40 WAR to at least contend for a wild card. It is not unreasonable that the Red Sox could gain about half of what they need from improvement by their young players and some regression from players with track records (esp. Porcello). "Going Long" -- i.e. overpaying for a top of the rotation starter and fixing the rest of their problems internally would also be a reasonable strategy. However, I wouldn't go beyond that, and trading for an already cost-controlled ace -- Sale, Carrasco, Grey -- is the road to long-term mediocrity. Unless someone is willing to accept way less than they should for one of those players, the cost of acquiring one of those players would make it highly unlikely that the Red Sox could develop anything even remotely resembling a sustainable 50 WAR team in the near future.
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Post by bigpapismangosalsa on Aug 6, 2015 21:00:39 GMT -5
While I think the future is very bright for the organization, I really don't think that the window is open next season. The young players are still a bit too far away, and the veterans really have not acclimated well to Boston. While I still have faith in Ramirez having value (from his bat) and think that Porcello will bounce back to the 4.25ERA pitcher he's been prior to this season, that just isn't enough in my opinion.
Next season, the team needs to let Bogaerts, Betts, Swihart, Bradley Jr and Castillo continue to adjust to major league pitching. They also need to commit to having Rodriguez, and Owens in the rotation. Wade Miley has been one of our more consistent pitchers, and unless you're putting him in a package for a true cost controlled ace (I'm thinking Sonny Gray, Jose Fernandez type of player) you hold on to him. Johnson's elbow concern gives me pause about having him in there (likely starting in AAA because of that) so I'd go after one of the veterans that his pitched in the AL before and shouldn't cost a ton. Get them on a short term (Dempster type) deal.
Also - for the love of God - what does Travis Shaw have to do to get a couple of games a week on this team. This is a last place team with literally nothing to play for right now beyond developing young players. Bench Sandoval - tell him he can earn his way back by getting into shape - and play Shaw.
Small move - I'd also take a flier on Dan Straily who was recently released by the Astros. It wont cost the team a thing, and quite frankly, he almost literally cannot be worse than Joe Kelly starting games. It also gives us a chance to see if Kelly can get any value whatsoever in the bullpen because we know he cannot be a starter.
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ehaz
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Post by ehaz on Aug 7, 2015 9:54:49 GMT -5
Hanley is likelier than not in the infield next year, which leaves you with an OF of Castillo, Bradley, and Betts. And there's a decent chance that Bradley / Castillo are a platoon pair rather than a pair of starters. The only thing that makes Heyward redundant is either Hanley being even worse at 1B than in LF (or ditto for Hanley at 3B and Sandoval at 1B), or both Bradley and Castillo being first-division starter quality. Bradley seems to be a significantly better player than Castillo at this point, so Hahahahaha. Wait are you not kidding? BRADLEY IS OBVIOUSLY A BETTER PLAYER THAN CASTILLO!! ! The 25 year old right? That can't hit a fastball on the inner third of the plate? With a career .189/.267/.270 line over 600 MLB plate appearances? That's absolute lunacy. I know you fetishize all prospects to an insufferable extent but this...
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