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What Can Be Done to Fix the Sox?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 20, 2015 13:57:00 GMT -5
I have a bad feeling, that with signing Dombrowski you're going to see the farm system gutted very quickly. It's going to be a prospect fire sale in order to win next year. Well overall Dombrowski has done very well when making trades. So if he guts a system as loaded as this system is, watch out Baseball because we are going to be getting like 3-4 all stars.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 20, 2015 14:04:53 GMT -5
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Post by awall on Aug 20, 2015 14:11:40 GMT -5
meh. until he stops swinging at balls that almost hit him, he's doomed.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 20, 2015 17:48:48 GMT -5
@bradfo: 2015-08-20 21:07:30 UTC Through translator Hanley Ramirez, Johnny Cueto said he would love to play in Boston if opportunity presented itself
Yeah I would oppose signing Cueto.
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Post by larrycook on Aug 20, 2015 19:17:01 GMT -5
@bradfo: 2015-08-20 21:07:30 UTC Through translator Hanley Ramirez, Johnny Cueto said he would love to play in Boston if opportunity presented itself Yeah I would oppose signing Cueto. I could not agree more. He smells like a future dodger to replace greinke.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 20, 2015 22:18:01 GMT -5
The second half of a seven- or eight-year Cueto contract would certainly be painful. But if they're looking to get back to contender status right away, signing him or Price would accomplish that. I say that because it appears that pieces are falling into place to fill some of the other holes that existed just a month or so ago. Specifically, JBJ looks like he may very well be an impact player and T. Shaw like he might be able to hold down 1B and provide 105-110ish OPS-plus production.
Add a stud SP and hit on a bullpen arm or two and this team is back in the hunt.
Since Price and Cueto were traded during the season, neither one will cost a draft pick. We'd keep our pick and not have to trade any top prospects for a Sonny Gray type.
I think it would be a no-brainer if we didn't have so much dead money tied up in the replacement level players BC signed last winter. Having those contracts sitting our on heads like boulders makes a massive contract for a SP riskier.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 20, 2015 23:16:28 GMT -5
This team is 3rd in MLB in runs and 8th in OPS??!! Seriously?!?! That shocked me to see. With some pitching and better defense, they'd be contenders. Sad thing is, lately they've looked like just that. If it weren't for, you know, the first 100 games, they might be exciting to watch.
The good thing is, the young guys pretty much all took steps forward, including Holt, and Shaw has the look of at least a quality backup option. If they get at least a small additional improvement from Betts (OBP, steals)/Bogaerts(power)/Swihart (both, and defensively)/JBJ (just approaches his current offensive line), theire offense is suddenly one of the best in baseball, provided Papi can approach this year's output and Panda/Ramirez at least approach career norms. A legitimate 1 or even 1a and a pair of quality 'pen arms and this team is suddenly, well, pretty good, provided Rodriguez is more consistent and Buchholz is back for his 2/3 season.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 20, 2015 23:21:13 GMT -5
@bradfo: 2015-08-20 21:07:30 UTC Through translator Hanley Ramirez, Johnny Cueto said he would love to play in Boston if opportunity presented itself Yeah I would oppose signing Cueto. I'd be worried about that back half of that contract - a concern I didn't really have re: Lester, but Cueto is a better pitcher than Lester is. I think he'd give the Sox 3 or 4 good years (maybe 1 or 2 of them as a legit ace). I would worry more about injury than ineffective in regards to Cueto. I would prefer to spend the money on Cueto than deal away prospects, not that I wouldn't deal some surplus for a younger up and coming starter to team with Rodriguez and Cueto. The Sox could make that work if they don't re-sign Buchholz or somehow Dombrowski works miracles and manages to dump Sandoval or Ramirez without having to pay for the entire salary dump, which is highly unlikely. All that aside, I think he'd be a fun guy to watch. He has a little Luis Tiant in him with the way he pitches, and I just missed out seeing him pitch for the Sox - if Cueto is anything like him, I wouldn't want to miss out on that.
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Post by jdb on Aug 21, 2015 8:01:25 GMT -5
I think we'll sign either Price or Cueto now. Price is probably getting just over Scherzer money while I think Cueto is more on par to Leater. Maybe a little more. The back end will always be a huge risk but hopefully we have cheaper starters coming up and whoever we sign can at least eat innings.
Say we trade for a #2 on a good deal like Carasco or Quintana it would be easier to pay for a top FA.
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Post by jdb on Aug 22, 2015 8:03:13 GMT -5
A Porcello rebound would go a long way in fixing the 2016 team.
Gammo tweet Scout watching Rick Porcello:"After 2d inning, he was really good. Two fastball/curveball/changeup mix, excellent change." Mix they want
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Post by michael on Aug 22, 2015 16:07:39 GMT -5
A Porcello rebound would go a long way in fixing the 2016 team. Gammo tweet Scout watching Rick Porcello:"After 2d inning, he was really good. Two fastball/curveball/changeup mix, excellent change." Mix they want How many ground balls??
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 22, 2015 16:16:00 GMT -5
This team is 3rd in MLB in runs and 8th in OPS??!! . Can't wait for the "All that came in meaningless games after the season was already over" rationalizations this offseason.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 22, 2015 17:17:25 GMT -5
This team is 3rd in MLB in runs and 8th in OPS??!! . Can't wait for the "All that came in meaningless games after the season was already over" rationalizations this offseason. Haven't we scored a lot of unearned runs this year? At one point we lead the league by a healthy margin. Not sure what it is now. Might explain most of that.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 22, 2015 17:40:36 GMT -5
No, what has happened is that the team is really hitting. The team has been something like .286 for the past month or more.
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Post by larrycook on Aug 22, 2015 17:51:13 GMT -5
A Porcello rebound would go a long way in fixing the 2016 team. Gammo tweet Scout watching Rick Porcello:"After 2d inning, he was really good. Two fastball/curveball/changeup mix, excellent change." Mix they want That change up has been brutalized all season long by the Yankees, Orioles, Rays and jays, plus more than a few other clubs. I am surprised porcello has not had to go on the dl for whiplash given the beating his change up had taken this season. But yet, I am curious to see him start again, just to see if he can turn his season around.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 22, 2015 22:23:45 GMT -5
This team is 3rd in MLB in runs and 8th in OPS??!! . Can't wait for the "All that came in meaningless games after the season was already over" rationalizations this offseason. To me it just seems like regression to the mean. Unfortunately, it's occurring when games are meaningless (in terms of playoff aspirations...certainly not in assessment and future planning), but that's irrelevant in terms of what those performances mean. FWIW, it seems like the following are some tentative conclusions to be drawn, obviously subject to the light of the remaining 40 or so games: 1) JBJ needs regular playing time, either in CF or RF. Either they find out that his improved approach is the real deal, and he's a potential/probable multiple All-Star, or they determine that he's expendable as a trade chip, and they get a solid handle on his value/what to ask for in return. De Aza should be playing only very, very rarely. 2) Mookie Betts is a probable perennial All-Star. His performance at 22 has been, while not transcendent, certainly quite good, particularly for such a young player. He's a prime up-the-middle talent whose bat will probably eventually (and possibly as soon as next year) play in LF. He looks like a pretty good bet to produce several .300/.380/.500 or so seasons, with 20-30 steals or maybe more, and plus CF (or plus-plus LF) defense. 3) Trading Bogaerts for just about anyone is a bad idea. The leap forward in his defense and his adjustments at the plate make him both a good bet to improve, and an extremely difficult player (at the most important non-C position) to replace. 4) Blake Swihart can hit, now we just need to see if he can hit for power. 5) Henry Owens has pretty much as-advertised stuff, and looks to be at least a solid #4, with #2 or even 1a upside, if his change comes back fully. I think it will, given how little he used it by all reports earlier this season. His breaking stuff is clearly better after all of his work on it this year. If anything, he has the aptitude and attitude to learn through repitition. 6) Rusney Castillo has good tools. He may not ever be a knock-your-socks off guy, but he makes contact, has a little pop, and deserves playing time. It looks like his contract really isn't a bad one, and as such he may have real trade value if he gets regular playing time and shows consistency. 7) Steven Wright is a good option to replace Miley. 8) Miley has trade value, as a durable 3/4 who would probably be great in Pac Bell or Petco. 9) This team needs a bullpen. 10) Eduardo Rodriguez has the heart and demeanor of a #1, and isn't all that far from having the stuff to be one, too. He needs to build consistency, though, and as such he's much better being the #3 in 2016, not starting the year as the #2. 11) This team needs a #1.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 24, 2015 0:06:18 GMT -5
A Porcello rebound would go a long way in fixing the 2016 team. Gammo tweet Scout watching Rick Porcello:"After 2d inning, he was really good. Two fastball/curveball/changeup mix, excellent change." Mix they want That change up has been brutalized all season long by the Yankees, Orioles, Rays and jays, plus more than a few other clubs. I am surprised porcello has not had to go on the dl for whiplash given the beating his change up had taken this season. But yet, I am curious to see him start again, just to see if he can turn his season around. I'm looking at his pitch/fx data the last few years. In 2014 Porcello had a reduction in ERA that was BABIP-driven; his FIP actually went up a bit. He threw more 4-seamers that year, up to 25% from 15%, and fewer two-seamers, down to 33% from 42%. His changeup was more effective, and became his best pitch, surpassing the sinker. Since that sinker has always been more effective than his four-seamer, it's kind of impossible to argue that the change in FB proportion led to the better season, if you believe he actually had one. You would have to believe that throwing the four-seamer more made his other pitches more effective, especially the changeup. And in fact that's exactly what the Sox said they believed. Now, it so happens that Rick Porcello throws his changeup and his two-seamer with an absolutely identical spin axis. They are going to be really hard for a hitter to tell apart. I would have predicted that throwing the four-seamer more would have made his changeup less effective. I'll also note that in my study of changeup effectiveness, the single biggest factor was frequency with which the pitch was thrown, and this could not be nearly explained fully by reverse causation -- i.e., it wasn't simply because guys who had better changeups threw it more often. It's really had to separate the causal arrow, but it certainly seemed as if the pitch benefits hugely from being thrown a lot. So what happened this year? The Sox had him boost his 4-seamers even more, from 25% to 31%; in fact, in April and May they had him throwing more 4-seamers than sinkers. He threw his changeup a lot less, and it got killed. Now, from looking at the game logs it certainly seems that he lost his feel for the changeup at the start of the season, so the awfulness explains the low frequency, not vice versa. But throwing more four-seamers is not going to help the pitch, it's going to hurt. The lesson here, I think, is that the execution of pitches, if it becomes highly variable, dwarfs the context. They spent all season trying to vary the pitch mix, and some of that was certainly in response to what was perceived as what had been working recently, but in the long run I think it makes much more sense to recognize that his two best pitches have always been the sinker and the change-up, and that they get a good deal of their effectiveness from being hard to tell apart. If he's getting hit hard, he needs to concentrate on throwing better sinkers and changeups; mucking around with the pitch mix just dodges the issue.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Aug 24, 2015 1:43:30 GMT -5
Wow! Let's hope he reads this. Thanks.
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Post by dcsoxfan on Aug 24, 2015 5:52:47 GMT -5
Can't wait for the "All that came in meaningless games after the season was already over" rationalizations this offseason. To me it just seems like regression to the mean. Unfortunately, it's occurring when games are meaningless (in terms of playoff aspirations...certainly not in assessment and future planning), but that's irrelevant in terms of what those performances mean. FWIW, it seems like the following are some tentative conclusions to be drawn, obviously subject to the light of the remaining 40 or so games: 1) JBJ needs regular playing time, either in CF or RF. Either they find out that his improved approach is the real deal, and he's a potential/probable multiple All-Star, or they determine that he's expendable as a trade chip, and they get a solid handle on his value/what to ask for in return. De Aza should be playing only very, very rarely. 2) Mookie Betts is a probable perennial All-Star. His performance at 22 has been, while not transcendent, certainly quite good, particularly for such a young player. He's a prime up-the-middle talent whose bat will probably eventually (and possibly as soon as next year) play in LF. He looks like a pretty good bet to produce several .300/.380/.500 or so seasons, with 20-30 steals or maybe more, and plus CF (or plus-plus LF) defense. 3) Trading Bogaerts for just about anyone is a bad idea. The leap forward in his defense and his adjustments at the plate make him both a good bet to improve, and an extremely difficult player (at the most important non-C position) to replace. 4) Blake Swihart can hit, now we just need to see if he can hit for power. 5) Henry Owens has pretty much as-advertised stuff, and looks to be at least a solid #4, with #2 or even 1a upside, if his change comes back fully. I think it will, given how little he used it by all reports earlier this season. His breaking stuff is clearly better after all of his work on it this year. If anything, he has the aptitude and attitude to learn through repitition. 6) Rusney Castillo has good tools. He may not ever be a knock-your-socks off guy, but he makes contact, has a little pop, and deserves playing time. It looks like his contract really isn't a bad one, and as such he may have real trade value if he gets regular playing time and shows consistency. 7) Steven Wright is a good option to replace Miley. 8) Miley has trade value, as a durable 3/4 who would probably be great in Pac Bell or Petco. 9) This team needs a bullpen. 10) Eduardo Rodriguez has the heart and demeanor of a #1, and isn't all that far from having the stuff to be one, too. He needs to build consistency, though, and as such he's much better being the #3 in 2016, not starting the year as the #2. 11) This team needs a #1. With the possible exception of trading Miley, I agree with everything here. I think the Red Sox can sign one of the top of the rotation guys on the free agent market, pick up a few bullpen pieces and compete, at least for a wild card, while maintaining their core prospects. This has the advantage that if Margot and Benintendi develop as hoped, the Red Sox can then trade JBJ and/or Castillo for a far greater return than current prospects. A cost-controlled starter like Gray or Carrasco is going to cost something on the order of Devers/Margot/Rodriguez. I hope the Red Sox have the patience to say no to a deal like that; however I fear they don't.
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Post by sarasoxer on Aug 24, 2015 6:39:09 GMT -5
Well Wright is a good story and when he is on, a very useful pitcher. I just can't see taking on the risk of him being a mainstay given the history of knuckleballers. Long relief and spot starter is his role.
I like Miley's arsenal and grit. He stays for me.
No to Cueto....besides didn't he play a role in Predator?
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Post by telson13 on Aug 24, 2015 18:01:41 GMT -5
Well Wright is a good story and when he is on, a very useful pitcher. I just can't see taking on the risk of him being a mainstay given the history of knuckleballers. Long relief and spot starter is his role. I like Miley's arsenal and grit. He stays for me. No to Cueto....besides didn't he play a role in Predator? My thinking is that it's really not very hard at all to replace a .500 pitcher with an ERA around 4.5. Heck, Owens is doing that right now, as is Rodriguez, and both with upside. Miley has value to some teams for exactly the qualities you describe, though. Packaging him with a top-50 prospect like Margot (who is a couple years away and probably redundant, even though he has a high ceiling) and another top100 prospect probably nets a #2 like Carrasco, particularly if the Sox take on salary in return. Wright, Barnes, Johnson, Owens...all could fairly reasonably be expected, alone or in combination, to reproduce Miley's numbers and innings. If the Sox sign or trade for a T.O.R. starter, they'd then have Buch/Miley/Porcello/Rodriguez/Owens/Barnes/Wright/Johnson to fill out four spots. Upgrading from Miley to a #2 then slots Rodriguez 3, Buch 4, Porcello 5, with the others for depth. That means the #s 3-4-5 are all pitching 1-2 slots below their ceilings, and allows Buch to be moved at the team's discretion, and replaced with Owens/Wright/Johnson, should either Buchholz underperform/get injured or one of the young guys simply perform so well as to force their way into the mix. Regardless, that's 8 pitchers for four spots. With that much depth, and minor league talent to burn, why not upgrade from Miley? They don't need a solid #4, they need a legitimate 1-2. By virtue of his contract and durability, Miley could return a cost-controlled 2. Then it's down to identifying an obtainable #1. The Sox have excellent SP depth, which makes below-league-average innings--even 200 of them from a single player--totally expendable.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 24, 2015 18:04:55 GMT -5
Well Wright is a good story and when he is on, a very useful pitcher. I just can't see taking on the risk of him being a mainstay given the history of knuckleballers. Long relief and spot starter is his role. I like Miley's arsenal and grit. He stays for me. No to Cueto....besides didn't he play a role in Predator? My thinking is that it's really not very hard at all to replace a .500 pitcher with an ERA around 4.5. Heck, Owens is doing that right now, as is Rodriguez, and both with upside. Miley has value to some teams for exactly the qualities you describe, though. Packaging him with a top-50 prospect like Margot (who is a couple years away and probably redundant, even though he has a high ceiling) and another top100 prospect probably nets a #2 like Carrasco, particularly if the Sox take on salary in return. Wright, Barnes, Johnson, Owens...all could fairly reasonably be expected, alone or in combination, to reproduce Miley's numbers and innings. If the Sox sign or trade for a T.O.R. starter, they'd then have Buch/Miley/Porcello/Rodriguez/Owens/Barnes/Wright/Johnson to fill out four spots. Upgrading from Miley to a #2 then slots Rodriguez 3, Buch 4, Porcello 5, with the others for depth. That means the #s 3-4-5 are all pitching 1-2 slots below their ceilings, and allows Buch to be moved at the team's discretion, and replaced with Owens/Wright/Johnson, should either Buchholz underperform/get injured or one of the young guys simply perform so well as to force their way into the mix. Regardless, that's 8 pitchers for four spots. With that much depth, and minor league talent to burn, why not upgrade from Miley? They don't need a solid #4, they need a legitimate 1-2. By virtue of his contract and durability, Miley could return a cost-controlled 2. Then it's down to identifying an obtainable #1. The Sox have excellent SP depth, which makes below-league-average innings--even 200 of them from a single player--totally expendable. Miley is probably going to hit 200 IP again or close to it. That IS hard to replace, even if it's at a league average level.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 24, 2015 18:15:16 GMT -5
To me it just seems like regression to the mean. Unfortunately, it's occurring when games are meaningless (in terms of playoff aspirations...certainly not in assessment and future planning), but that's irrelevant in terms of what those performances mean. FWIW, it seems like the following are some tentative conclusions to be drawn, obviously subject to the light of the remaining 40 or so games: 1) JBJ needs regular playing time, either in CF or RF. Either they find out that his improved approach is the real deal, and he's a potential/probable multiple All-Star, or they determine that he's expendable as a trade chip, and they get a solid handle on his value/what to ask for in return. De Aza should be playing only very, very rarely. 2) Mookie Betts is a probable perennial All-Star. His performance at 22 has been, while not transcendent, certainly quite good, particularly for such a young player. He's a prime up-the-middle talent whose bat will probably eventually (and possibly as soon as next year) play in LF. He looks like a pretty good bet to produce several .300/.380/.500 or so seasons, with 20-30 steals or maybe more, and plus CF (or plus-plus LF) defense. 3) Trading Bogaerts for just about anyone is a bad idea. The leap forward in his defense and his adjustments at the plate make him both a good bet to improve, and an extremely difficult player (at the most important non-C position) to replace. 4) Blake Swihart can hit, now we just need to see if he can hit for power. 5) Henry Owens has pretty much as-advertised stuff, and looks to be at least a solid #4, with #2 or even 1a upside, if his change comes back fully. I think it will, given how little he used it by all reports earlier this season. His breaking stuff is clearly better after all of his work on it this year. If anything, he has the aptitude and attitude to learn through repitition. 6) Rusney Castillo has good tools. He may not ever be a knock-your-socks off guy, but he makes contact, has a little pop, and deserves playing time. It looks like his contract really isn't a bad one, and as such he may have real trade value if he gets regular playing time and shows consistency. 7) Steven Wright is a good option to replace Miley. 8) Miley has trade value, as a durable 3/4 who would probably be great in Pac Bell or Petco. 9) This team needs a bullpen. 10) Eduardo Rodriguez has the heart and demeanor of a #1, and isn't all that far from having the stuff to be one, too. He needs to build consistency, though, and as such he's much better being the #3 in 2016, not starting the year as the #2. 11) This team needs a #1. With the possible exception of trading Miley, I agree with everything here. I think the Red Sox can sign one of the top of the rotation guys on the free agent market, pick up a few bullpen pieces and compete, at least for a wild card, while maintaining their core prospects. This has the advantage that if Margot and Benintendi develop as hoped, the Red Sox can then trade JBJ and/or Castillo for a far greater return than current prospects. A cost-controlled starter like Gray or Carrasco is going to cost something on the order of Devers/Margot/Rodriguez. I hope the Red Sox have the patience to say no to a deal like that; however I fear they don't. Re: Gray or CC, yeah, that's probably about right for Gray, but Carrasco would be less costly. Frankly, I think trading Rodriguez is a huge mistake. He's a #3 right now, with reasonable 2/1a upside (think Lester...who had remarkably similar rookie stats, only with a lot more walks and less velocity). I still think flipping Miley with a guy like Margot and maybe Guerra for a young, cost-controlled #2 and then either trying for CC (maybe taking on Bourn's salary?) or Trevor Bauer, or going big bucks for Price/Cueto is the best move long-term. Buchholz should be explored as a trade option if he can pitch at all this year, too. But realistically, the Sox really only need a #1...the rest of the rotation slots in pretty well after that, particularly if their offense keeps it up. I'd prefer to see them trade fewer of their top prospects now (since they're mostly 18-20, and in A ball), upgrade using current rotation pieces and FA, and then maybe add a player at the deadline next year when some of those prospects are higher up the ladder and thus have more cache. Mostly, I think it's a mistake to trade young pitchers with upside like Rodriguez or Owens. Those are the guys you slot in at 3-4-5 and let them take their lumps. If you have SP depth, you can do it without much of a performance hit, and they're **much** more likely to pleasantly surprise than a guy like Miley.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 24, 2015 18:22:13 GMT -5
My thinking is that it's really not very hard at all to replace a .500 pitcher with an ERA around 4.5. Heck, Owens is doing that right now, as is Rodriguez, and both with upside. Miley has value to some teams for exactly the qualities you describe, though. Packaging him with a top-50 prospect like Margot (who is a couple years away and probably redundant, even though he has a high ceiling) and another top100 prospect probably nets a #2 like Carrasco, particularly if the Sox take on salary in return. Wright, Barnes, Johnson, Owens...all could fairly reasonably be expected, alone or in combination, to reproduce Miley's numbers and innings. If the Sox sign or trade for a T.O.R. starter, they'd then have Buch/Miley/Porcello/Rodriguez/Owens/Barnes/Wright/Johnson to fill out four spots. Upgrading from Miley to a #2 then slots Rodriguez 3, Buch 4, Porcello 5, with the others for depth. That means the #s 3-4-5 are all pitching 1-2 slots below their ceilings, and allows Buch to be moved at the team's discretion, and replaced with Owens/Wright/Johnson, should either Buchholz underperform/get injured or one of the young guys simply perform so well as to force their way into the mix. Regardless, that's 8 pitchers for four spots. With that much depth, and minor league talent to burn, why not upgrade from Miley? They don't need a solid #4, they need a legitimate 1-2. By virtue of his contract and durability, Miley could return a cost-controlled 2. Then it's down to identifying an obtainable #1. The Sox have excellent SP depth, which makes below-league-average innings--even 200 of them from a single player--totally expendable. Miley is probably going to hit 200 IP again or close to it. That IS hard to replace, even if it's at a league average level. You're missing my point: yes, it's hard to replace that performance with a SINGLE player. But if you cobble together the performances of Owens/Wright/Johnson, I'm willing to bet that they're almost identical to Miley's, statistically (except in total innings, which is much more about opportunity at this point than ability or performance). It really doesn't matter at all if you get a 200 IP, 11-11, 4.40, 1.40 WHIP year from one player in the #4 slot in your rotation, or three. Regardless of innings, his numbers have been **below** league average, and are probably easily replaced. Of course, it's irrelevant because I'm arguing that they should trade him with prospects for a #2. But whatever the case, the numbers for Wright, Owens et al say they're a fairly safe bet to be capable of combining to replace Miley's performance. And with more upside, they should be given the chance to.
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Post by dcsoxfan on Aug 24, 2015 18:48:04 GMT -5
In general the best team in baseball will compile approximately 50 WAR. If a team's objective is to win a division title, it should plan on assembling a 50 WAR team.
To compete for a wild card requires between 35 and 40 WAR. This year's Red Sox will aggregate between 25 and 27 WAR.
I think it likely that Betts, Bogaerts, Castllo, Bradley Jr, Swihart, Vasquez, Rodriguez et al should be worth another 5 WAR (and possibly more) in 2016.
I think Sandoval, Ramirez and Porcello should also be worth a few more WAR.
If the Red Sox can add a Price/Greinke/Cueto that's another 4 to 5 WAR.
Given that a division champion has about a 12.5% chance of winning the World Series and a wild card winner has about a 6% chance, it seems to me that the obvious right strategy is to sign an ace and hold on to, at least, the team's premium prospects.
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