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What Can Be Done to Fix the Sox?
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Post by jrffam05 on Jun 3, 2015 12:34:45 GMT -5
You know it's possible that Schwarber is never as valuable as Buchholz is right now and that Margot is better? That is one insane trade idea. LOL at Margot being better than Schwarber. Only a Red Sox homer would say such a thing. Margot wouldn't have an OPS over 1000 in any league. Many posters on this site really over-rate our prospects. I'll remind when Clay starts to struggle or gets injured again too. LOL at the impossibility a 22 year old prospect a 60 FV (Kiley) could be worse than a 20 year old prospect with a 55 FV (Kiley).
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Post by jmei on Jun 3, 2015 12:39:26 GMT -5
If Schwarber doesn't stick at catcher, he's likely a 1B/DH, and there becomes a decent shot that Margot is a more valuable player at the major league level.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 3, 2015 12:53:05 GMT -5
I want Schwarber as a 1b. We can draft a CF next week as good as Margot. Benintendi. Manny is 5'10" 180lbs. At best he's a decent CF prospect. Which we don't need. We haven't developed a power bat like Schwarber since Mo Vaughn.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jun 3, 2015 12:59:13 GMT -5
If Schwarber doesn't stick at catcher, he's likely a 1B/DH, and there becomes a decent shot that Margot is a more valuable player at the major league level. Going back to the original post, it's dumb to suggest that there is no chance Margot could be better than Schwarber. There is so much fluctuation in baseball and especially in prospect projections. In 2011 Montero and Domonic Brown were ranked by BA in the top 5 prospects, while Anthony Rizzo was ranked 75th. You can go through the history of the BA prospect lists to get a general sense of how these players are ranked and how that changes over time. But I guess that would make us all homers. www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 3, 2015 13:03:28 GMT -5
If Schwarber doesn't stick at catcher, he's likely a 1B/DH, and there becomes a decent shot that Margot is a more valuable player at the major league level. Going back to the original post, it's dumb to suggest that there is no chance Margot could be better than Schwarber. There is so much fluctuation in baseball and especially in prospect projections. In 2011 Montero and Domonic Brown were ranked by BA in the top 5 prospects, while Anthony Rizzo was ranked 75th. You can go through the history of the BA prospect lists to get a general sense of how these players are ranked and how that changes over time. But I guess that would make us all homers. www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time This is pretty much why you never target prospects to trade for unless they're disappointing and you can buy low. But you never pay a premium to get one.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 3, 2015 17:09:21 GMT -5
For Schwarber, I'd give them Buchholz and Margot. I'd want another decent prospect from them if they pick up Buck's options. I've given up on the next 2-3 years. Not just this year. It's going to take; Mookie, Xander, Swihart and Castillo time to become productive players. It is very difficult to envision a scenario where any team, including the Red Sox, would decline Buchholz's 2016 and 2017 options, other than major injury (think season-ending elbow/shoulder issues) or off-field stuff. Given his age, the cost of starting pitching, his stuff, and the relative inexpensiveness of those option years, you would think not. If anything, they significantly enhance his trade value.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 3, 2015 17:16:49 GMT -5
I want Schwarber as a 1b. We can draft a CF next week as good as Margot. Benintendi. Manny is 5'10" 180lbs. At best he's a decent CF prospect. Which we don't need. We haven't developed a power bat like Schwarber since Mo Vaughn. I think you're under rating Margot there. He's more like an excellent CF prospect. Not elite, but not far off. He's a plus-plus defender and has XB power with a stupidly low K rate. Schwarber loses value as a 1b, where he'd need to hit .300/.400/.550 to be of equivalent value as Margot's comparable "ceiling" of .280/.360/.450 with 40 SB and gold-glove CF defense. I still like the idea of getting Schwarber, but you're offering an awful lot. Buchholz has value, potentially a lot of value given his team-friendly contract, and I'm not sure punting on next year makes sense. The young guys have lots of room to improve and look like they're doing it already.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 3, 2015 17:30:49 GMT -5
I have no idea what you're talking about. Buchholz the last 2 games: 3.15 xFIP. Buchholz the entire season: 3.11 xFIP. He's been pitching consistently at the same level. Care to show me his xFIP from last year? Because if you'd like to, I'm game, but I'm pretty sure his performance and health this season qualify as a "renaissance." Buchholz 2013: 3.41 xFIP Buchholz 2014 post-injury (Jul-Sep): 3.67 xFIP. Or even, Buchholz 2013 pre-injury: 3.18 xFIP I'm not going to argue with you about the meaning of the word "renaissance" but I hope you understand that the way I perceive the word made it seem like you were talking about different stats and/or a smaller timeframe.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 3, 2015 17:32:09 GMT -5
If Schwarber doesn't stick at catcher, he's likely a 1B/DH, and there becomes a decent shot that Margot is a more valuable player at the major league level. Going back to the original post, it's dumb to suggest that there is no chance Margot could be better than Schwarber. There is so much fluctuation in baseball and especially in prospect projections. In 2011 Montero and Domonic Brown were ranked by BA in the top 5 prospects, while Anthony Rizzo was ranked 75th. You can go through the history of the BA prospect lists to get a general sense of how these players are ranked and how that changes over time. But I guess that would make us all homers. www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time Another aspect of this is youth. Schwarber is a lot more polished. Margot has consistently been very young for his level. Of course, youth carries risk...but it seems like prospect evaluations often fail to take youth/level "stress" into account. Eduardo Rodriguez is a great example. In AA at just 20, with a full year at 21, he dropped down some boards (50s in preseason 2014, 60s-70s preseason 2015 despite a pretty impressive finish to 2014 and quite good overall numbers in AA for his age). Young players offset their risk with the fact that they're still in the steep part of the learning curve. Rodriguez was knocked for "OK" command and a middling slider...both of which he's improved upon substantially. Margot has a lot of time (3 years, really) to get to the majors and still be more or less average age as a rookie. That's three years for two levels, presuming he finishes the year at Salem, which may be overly conservative. Margot's 55 FV could easily be higher if he shows AA success, thus raising his floor.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 3, 2015 17:34:55 GMT -5
Care to show me his xFIP from last year? Because if you'd like to, I'm game, but I'm pretty sure his performance and health this season qualify as a "renaissance." Buchholz 2013: 3.41 xFIP Buchholz 2014 post-injury (Jul-Sep): 3.67 xFIP. Or even, Buchholz 2013 pre-injury: 3.18 xFIP I'm not going to argue with you about the meaning of the word "renaissance" but I hope you understand that the way I perceive the word made it seem like you were talking about different stats and/or a smaller timeframe. I got that. No worries. I think we both agree that he's pitched well this year, for basically the whole year, and it's a substantial step up from where he was post-2013 injury. Regardless, it's a very positive development.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 3, 2015 17:38:01 GMT -5
Care to show me his xFIP from last year? Because if you'd like to, I'm game, but I'm pretty sure his performance and health this season qualify as a "renaissance." Buchholz 2013: 3.41 xFIP Buchholz 2014 post-injury (Jul-Sep): 3.67 xFIP. Or even, Buchholz 2013 pre-injury: 3.18 xFIP I'm not going to argue with you about the meaning of the word "renaissance" but I hope you understand that the way I perceive the word made it seem like you were talking about different stats and/or a smaller timeframe. The big question is, has he reached a new level of performance, with 2014 an injury-marred outlier, or is this just Clay continuing his Saberhagen/Beckett impression (good odd, bad even)?
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Post by benjaminbuttons on Jun 4, 2015 18:11:15 GMT -5
No fix, these guys SUCK.
Come on in and defend your boys staff.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 4, 2015 18:22:50 GMT -5
I'm trying to figure why you're even here. No staff is trying to defend anything, other than some sanity. Sorry if we aren't all reactionary pissed off to the hilt after after a ****ty performance. Nobody is happy after this. It's hard to defend. But you guys SUCK isn't something that's going to play well outside of WEEI. It just doesn't add anything to the conversation.
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Post by soxfan06 on Jun 4, 2015 18:28:42 GMT -5
Lots of things need to be fixed with regards to this team.
My first two steps: 1. Fire John Farrell. 2. DFA Craig Breslow.
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Post by benjaminbuttons on Jun 4, 2015 18:28:52 GMT -5
Sry bruh im here to preach the truth, these guys are bums. One of you was saying "it's May and they could still win the world series".
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 4, 2015 19:19:29 GMT -5
Going back to the original post, it's dumb to suggest that there is no chance Margot could be better than Schwarber. There is so much fluctuation in baseball and especially in prospect projections. In 2011 Montero and Domonic Brown were ranked by BA in the top 5 prospects, while Anthony Rizzo was ranked 75th. You can go through the history of the BA prospect lists to get a general sense of how these players are ranked and how that changes over time. But I guess that would make us all homers. www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time Another aspect of this is youth. Schwarber is a lot more polished. Margot has consistently been very young for his level. Of course, youth carries risk...but it seems like prospect evaluations often fail to take youth/level "stress" into account. Eduardo Rodriguez is a great example. In AA at just 20, with a full year at 21, he dropped down some boards (50s in preseason 2014, 60s-70s preseason 2015 despite a pretty impressive finish to 2014 and quite good overall numbers in AA for his age). Young players offset their risk with the fact that they're still in the steep part of the learning curve. Rodriguez was knocked for "OK" command and a middling slider...both of which he's improved upon substantially. Margot has a lot of time (3 years, really) to get to the majors and still be more or less average age as a rookie. That's three years for two levels, presuming he finishes the year at Salem, which may be overly conservative. Margot's 55 FV could easily be higher if he shows AA success, thus raising his floor. Schwarber is 18 months older than Margot. And, absolutely raking in AA. We won't do that type of trade. But, I'd love to get him.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 4, 2015 19:35:17 GMT -5
I'm wondering when we get our first story about team "chemistry." With a couple of head cases like Hanley and Pablo, the behind the scenes can't be a pretty picture.
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Post by arzjake on Jun 4, 2015 19:35:51 GMT -5
Another aspect of this is youth. Schwarber is a lot more polished. Margot has consistently been very young for his level. Of course, youth carries risk...but it seems like prospect evaluations often fail to take youth/level "stress" into account. Eduardo Rodriguez is a great example. In AA at just 20, with a full year at 21, he dropped down some boards (50s in preseason 2014, 60s-70s preseason 2015 despite a pretty impressive finish to 2014 and quite good overall numbers in AA for his age). Young players offset their risk with the fact that they're still in the steep part of the learning curve. Rodriguez was knocked for "OK" command and a middling slider...both of which he's improved upon substantially. Margot has a lot of time (3 years, really) to get to the majors and still be more or less average age as a rookie. That's three years for two levels, presuming he finishes the year at Salem, which may be overly conservative. Margot's 55 FV could easily be higher if he shows AA success, thus raising his floor. Schwarber is 18 months older than Margot. And, absolutely raking in AA. We won't do that type of trade. But, I'd love to get him. Anyone forget Sam Travis in High A? Why would u deal a SP with ability for another "doesn't have a position" type prospect. We already have to many one dimensional players on the ML roster. Schwarber is another one..
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Post by arzjake on Jun 4, 2015 19:40:52 GMT -5
I'm wondering when we get our first story about team "chemistry." With a couple of head cases like Hanley and Pablo, the behind the scenes can't be a pretty picture. Sandoval is looking like a big time mistake. Outside of the D, average now .244 which is more of a concern.. Did Cherington give up on Middlebrooks to soon?
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Post by thursty on Jun 4, 2015 19:52:20 GMT -5
I'm wondering when we get our first story about team "chemistry." With a couple of head cases like Hanley and Pablo, the behind the scenes can't be a pretty picture. Sandoval is looking like a big time mistake. Outside of the D, average now .244 which is more of a concern.. Did Cherington give up on Middlebrooks to soon? rather too late
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 4, 2015 20:08:57 GMT -5
Schwarber is 18 months older than Margot. And, absolutely raking in AA. We won't do that type of trade. But, I'd love to get him. Anyone forget Sam Travis in High A? Why would u deal a SP with ability for another "doesn't have a position" type prospect. We already have to many one dimensional players on the ML roster. Schwarber is another one.. Schwarber looks like the type of bat you can build your line-up around. He was the 4th overall pick last year and has dominated minor league pitching since. Was BA's 19th overall prospect headed into the season. Will prob be around 10 in mid-season because of promotions and drop-offs. He'll be in the bigs shortly. Sam Travis. I didn't forget about him. Not enough pop.
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alnipper
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Living the dream
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Post by alnipper on Jun 4, 2015 21:09:37 GMT -5
Right now the Sox would have the fifth pick in the draft!
I would put Masterson, and Kelly in the bullpen. I would consider releasing Masterson and calling up Johnson.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 4, 2015 21:16:45 GMT -5
Right now the Sox would have the fifth pick in the draft! I would put Masterson, and Kelly in the bullpen. I would consider releasing Masterson and calling up Johnson. Another benefit of that. If Kelly looks good in the pen, you can deal Koji at the deadline. Taz/Kelly/Barnes can takes turns closing.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 4, 2015 21:44:59 GMT -5
Schwarber is 18 months older than Margot. And, absolutely raking in AA. We won't do that type of trade. But, I'd love to get him. Anyone forget Sam Travis in High A? Why would u deal a SP with ability for another "doesn't have a position" type prospect. We already have to many one dimensional players on the ML roster. Schwarber is another one.. Because Schwarber projects to have an outstanding bat. I agree to an extent, but Schwarber is *way* better a batting prospect than Travis.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 4, 2015 22:36:09 GMT -5
Right now the Sox would have the fifth pick in the draft! I would put Masterson, and Kelly in the bullpen. I would consider releasing Masterson and calling up Johnson. Another benefit of that. If Kelly looks good in the pen, you can deal Koji at the deadline. Taz/Kelly/Barnes can takes turns closing. I would think that the Sox would have to pay off some of the contract for Uehara if they dealt him. After all, he'll be a 41 year old next year making $9 million. And the Sox might feel, even with his occasional struggles, that if the Sox think they can be competitive in 2016 (felt like I was saying this last year about 2015) that they think Uehara would still be their best option for closer. As far as Sandoval goes, I wish they could trade him. That contract is brutal. The man has been in decline for four years, but all we heard was that he's 28 and get him away from SF (where he actually had good numbers) and put him in Fenway and he'll rake, but with the way his body type is, his age 28 is like age 34 for somebody else. When the Sox signed Sandoval I wasn't too thrilled. I understood it. I figured they were better off hoping that Cecchini developed (I was way wrong about that), of simply play Holt at 3b until somebody better could be found. There's nothing that Sandoval does that Holt can do better and cheaper at this point. I guess between Moncada's defensive struggles at 2b, Cecchini's regression, and Sandoval's stinkiness, that it's just a matter of time before Yoan Moncada is converted to 3b. Obviously the Sox can do better than Breslow. Maybe somebody like Eveland. No wait, he's not in the organization anymore. Honestly, beyond some minor tinkering, there's not much they can really do. Just play out the string, continue to stink, and hope they draft really high in a promising draft class next year (and hopefully come away with a prospect better than Trey Ball).
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