Is It 2013 or 2014?

Your turn, dmaineah. ;D

You're right, the phrasing is sloppy. Here's what it should really read:

If both Napoli hits 10 or more home runs and Kuroda has an ERA at or lower than 4.50 on July 15th, I get to select dmaineah's avatar through the rest of the calendar year. If either Napoli hits fewer than 10 home runs or Kuroda has an ERA higher than 4.50 on July 15th, he gets to select mine for the rest of the calendar year.

I accept with 2 conditions;

1) They both have to be part of a Major League Baseball Team.
For instance
Napoli can't be playing Independent Ball someplace
And Kuroda can't be pitching in Japan.

2) We both take our chances with injuries.

Agreed?

Can I suggest an early favorite?

Buffs I noticed that part to in the article. Im trying to think back to the 2009 time frame he mentions and Im not sure it was better than today. Sure looking back he mentions the Greenville team with Middlebrooks , Kelly, Rizzo and Laravnway. At that time was any other than Kelly highly thought of? Thats right around Rizzo's cancer scare and its not like he was a big bonus baby who the whole league was watching. Middlebrooks had all the tools but not great stats in A ball and Lavarnway had even more questions than he does now. I just dont think we had 3 top 50 guys like Xander, Barnes and JBJ and thats not including guys like Brentz (top 80ish on MLB) Cecchini, Webster, Owens, Swihart who can take major steps in the minor league world with good 2013.

It's a well-written article, yes. I stand by my disagreement with it, however. Greinke's problem the last two years hasn't really been his defense (the article is right, it's cost him about .10 on his ERA), and it certainly hasn't been his bullpen. His problem is that he pitches worse out of the stretch than he does out of the windup, leading to significantly worse rates when men are on base. He gives up his hits/walks/home runs in bunches, rather than spread out evenly, as most pitchers do. He's become the bizarro-world Tom Glavine.

My stance since day one: Is his problem from the stretch correctable? Maybe, but three consecutive teams haven't, so I wouldn't advise paying Cole Hamels type money to find out.

I guess I'm like everyone on this site, I'm looking for "signs".

The "signs" I'm looking for are.........are we all in for 2013.

The Gomes signing is somewhat surprising, as I was hoping for a slightly bigger "splash". I certainly can see him being half of a decent platoon, but is his signing anymore than a band-aid? Or is he a part of a bigger plan that Ben has cooked up?

Can't imagine we won't sign another outfielder. I guess Cody Ross would be OK, but that outfield won't give us a really strong batting order.

With Gomes signing, it is hard for me to see us in on Josh Hamilton. Hamilton is, at this stage of his career, a comfortable fit in left-field. Gomes, at his best, is a left-fielder.

I'm not real sold on Nick Swisher in right, but he may be our best fit. I still like Victorino to play right and be our back-up plan in center.

To summarize: Gomes is NOT enough of a "sign" for me towards our plans for 2013. I guess I'll have to keep looking.

Ken......well written, but I actually don't believe we have much chance of getting to the play-offs myself in 2013.

To me, the only free agent pick up that would have given us a "chance" to get involved in the play off race before 2014 was Josh Hamilton. And, even there it was probably a "reach".

There has been a lot of posts about us being the "Red Sox" and of course we will be involved in the race. I know it is not that easy. The only thing that ever makes you re-consider is this is BASEBALL and funny things can and do happen each year......so its possible (see O's and A's).

As a prospect follower, I'm more than fine with us developing the kids. It is going to be a really interesting year at the major league and AAA levels. I can't wait to see what Webster and De La Rosa do. I can't wait to see if Xander ends up in Boston at the end of the year.

This post has been about how realistic the chances are for 2013. I do not disagree with you......I think 2014 (or 2015) will be the year we blast off.

I love the aspect of "building" a team and an organization. I think each one of us has a "dream" job of GM.

It is very interesting to see what moves Cherington makes (and doesn't). His actions really are signs.

Couldn't an argument also be made that this is a team that is less than a 69-win team, given that they won't have the players dealt to LAD for an entire season (in 2011, Gonzo/Beckett accounted for almost 11 fWAR/ 12 rWAR)? On the whole I agree with the premise that this team still has a good amount of talent, but failing to replace the upper echelon talent that is gone is just setting this team up to perform closer to the post-trade version than the pre-trade.

Again, I see what you're saying and I agree with the sentiment, but there's a lot of hope on both our parts in that rationale. Relying on a 37 year old Ortiz as a middle of the order bat is a lot for me. Similarly, relying on Middlebrooks is also asking a lot (I still remember the disappointment of Wilton Veras after a strong finish to '99). I want a 37-year old and a rookie with half a year to have strong seasons, but banking on it is what leads to disappointment and costs people their jobs.

The 2011 stats were setting the context for the loss of talent. You mentioned a return to form and without those premium players, you don't have the luxury of adding 4-5WAR when either of those spots does return to form. Especially if you replace that talent with non-similar levels of talent. Neither Swisher nor Napoli is close to 2011 Adrian, and Haren's injury/velocity issues make selling him as a 4WAR player very difficult.

You had also relied on Ellsbury in your original argument. I have ties to OSU and have loved and rooted for Ellsbury for years, but for the life of me cannot see a way that he isn't traded if this team does not restock talent in a huge way this offseason. Rationale for that is that if he's dealt midseason the acquiring team pays less because they get no end-of-year compensation. So unless the Sox are legitimately positioned as contenders heading into the season it makes the most sense to maximize value by dealing him before the year. If they switch to JBJ, which I'd be surprised to see, but it would take time for him to become even league average (and he certainly shouldn't be expected to produce that yet).

I'm with you on the pitching staff. Lester and Buchholz bounce back under Farrell, they're young enough to count on that type of improvement in the right circumstances. Personally I think Lackey returns to being a 2WAR player and Morales a 1WAR player (perfect for the #4/5 starters), but with the injury history of Lackey and Morales not being established I don't think it's easy to count on either being a sure thing. Adding a question mark like Haren is closer to the risk of the later two (Lackey/Morales), than it is to the former two (Lester/Buchholz).

All of these things could come together, I agree, but unless you're wrapping these situations around a better core of talent it's a much harder sell, at least from my perspective. I'd love to be wrong, but would I stake my job on it? Not a chance, and neither should Cherrington. For me this is a question of 2013 (rebuild on the fly) or 2015 (complete rebuild), and this FO needs to have the stones to go all in for whichever they deem a better option.

Steve I am very much in agreement to building a team through prospect development and I am equally eager to see the LA MILB additions in action/advancement. I would MUCH rather this course tho it might sacrifice win/loss in the near term. I don't like quick fixes or short-sighted short-cuts to satisfy the impatient to the detriment of longer term good for the masses. I applaud Cherington's public position in opposition to indiscriminate hemorrhaging of treasure (dollars and prospects).

Yup, baseball is wacky sometimes. As you note, a team on the outs can rise unexpectedly and meteorically from the ashes (Isn't that great!). Still, reason has its place and should be our guide.

To others here who have predicted/promoted Lester's resurgence under Farrell and friends,...I hope that you are right. For me, Lester may have reached his nadir. He has a strong arm (altho velocity seems to be decreasing) but has never been a high percentage strike-thrower in the best of times. Can we reasonably expect that to change at his age/experience? Again, for me, in the grand change-over, I would trade him if I could find a partner who sees the prospect for 'gold'.

We are at a crossroads. I hope that we will take the "road less traveled".