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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 14, 2012 9:17:13 GMT -5
I was already heavily leaning towards 2014 before yesterday's HUGE Jays trade, but for me this definitely makes me believe we are kidding ourselves in feeling we can make the playoffs next year.
At 1st glance, the Jay's trade is over-whelming in favor of Toronto....and that may be the case for next season. Personally I don't care for it, but I can see the Jay's position. They have been somewhat irrelevant for awhile. This trade puts them into the hunt for sure.
The Yankees will probably be in the "hunt" for the playoffs. The Rays will. The Jays? Probably. And the O's? Probably again. That is FOUR teams we have to jump over in our own division alone!!
But lets be clear.....nothing is definite....and they (Jays) may have mortgaged their future.
I have been perplexed over some of the rumors over the last week or two about interest in a guy like Kuroda (and maybe LaRoche and Napoli). I couldn't see us picking up a Kuroda before, and now giving up a 2nd round draft choice that is probably even more valuable (as we may be drafting in a better position after the "trade")..........makes less sense. LaRoche also will cost a draft choice.
We really have a great opportunity given us that (hopefully) will not come around again in a long time......namely a year of developing our young talent in the majors.
I'm all for, now, moving a Salty for a good young prospect. I'm all for seeing what the young-ins can do or not do.
Does the trade make you think differently?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 14, 2012 9:39:22 GMT -5
The Red Sox will be so much better off in the long run if they focus on 2014 and don't try to overextend themselves trying to compete next year. Theoretically I'm in favor of an even more extensive rebuild but that's just not in the cards.
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Post by elguapo on Nov 14, 2012 10:32:40 GMT -5
I'm all for, now, moving a Salty for a good young prospect. Nice trick if you can swing it. In my opinion, it's 2012, but the time change has me all screwed up. It's easy enough to look up anyway. I think Cherington appreciates the value of the 2nd round pick and will make free agent decisions accordingly.
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Post by jmei on Nov 14, 2012 10:53:30 GMT -5
I thought from the beginning of the offseason that one-year deals for aging veterans (think Kuroda, Torii Hunter, Lance Berkman, etc.) or trading for pending free agents you cannot or should not extend (Choo, Morneau, Kendrys Morales, etc.) made no sense because they're likely to be gone by the time this team can reasonably be a real powerhouse again. They probably won't be even worth draft picks considering they'd be risky candidates for the QO. I don't buy the "the clubhouse needs veterans to team the young guys!" narrative, especially since there are a few respected veterans already (Ortiz, Pedroia).
I think the FO should focus on (1) letting near-MLB-ready players get much-needed experience (think Iglesias, Lavarnway, Kalish), (2) signing younger, good-value free agents to deals that will extend into the next window of real playoff contention (Napoli, Swisher, maybe a starting pitcher), and (3) exploring deals for pending FAs and trading them if you get a good enough return (Saltalamacchia, Ellsbury).
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Post by raftsox on Nov 14, 2012 10:55:12 GMT -5
I was in favor of letting the youngsters play and booting 2013 anyways. So, this trade doesn't alter my opinion.
I'm actually a huge fan of this trade for Toronto; they're basically trying to ensure that the core of Bautista and Encarnacion aren't wasted while the other guys develop. It's an absolute coup that they were able to keep Davis, Gose, Lawrie, D'Arnaud and the questionable Rasmus for next year.
The changing 'scape of the ALE isn't over yet. As of right now, you can almost write the Rays off because their offense is so anemic. But, they legitimately have 8 ML starting pitchers right now and black holes at several positions. I wouldn't be surprised to see them work a trade with Texas or someone else to fill their offensive needs.
(If that prediction isn't a reason to trade Ellsbury now, I don't know what is)
Edit: it sounds like I was advocating that Miami would want players like Rasmus, Davis, etc.; I wasn't. I was making the point that the Jays have a stacked lineup now.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 14, 2012 12:38:53 GMT -5
Yeah the more I think about, the Jay's trade actually relieved us of making a "poor" decision.
A poor decision in this case is to go all in on worrying about 2013. I'm not for abandoning 2013, but the chances of us really being a huge factor next season is small.
Giving Iglesias, at least, 3 to 4 months to see what he brings is exciting. Letting Kalish, Sands, and Lava the opportunity to show if they have it.....is exciting. I want to see Brentz for the last month or two next year. I don't want to see a player like Torii Hunter signed unless we have a really good chance for, at least, the wild card.....and I just don't see it.
You may be right about moving Ellsbury now. Jackie Bradley may be up in August. Sure sign guys like Napoli and Victorino who have no draft choice attached, but I hope Ben doesn't mess around with the 8 guys who would take our 2nd rounder.
On paper, the Jays look real good. But baseball is a funny game and at times (like last year for us) it is not a funny game. Build a solid foundation and we can look at years of exciting successful teams. Get in a hurry and we could look like the Jays in 2015.
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Post by remember04 on Nov 14, 2012 13:26:27 GMT -5
The new CBA certainly does seem to have changed the landscape of things. I see more trades similar to the Punto trade and the Marlins/Jays trade coming. The Yankees have some decision making to do themselves. I wonder what that will be? Are we going to see more three to five year runs at the championship followed by rebuilding years. Personally I think trading your star and semi-star players one at a time instead of in these mega deals is the way to go you just have to time it right which is something we didn't do with Youk, Lowell, Beckett and Drew for example.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 14, 2012 13:44:18 GMT -5
Definitely 2014 or 2015 is the more likely scenario.
You have to figure that NY is aging and at some point will get old and decline. Of course, I've heard that for most of the past then years. I have a sinking feeling cheap Loria will do something stupid and free the Yankees of A-Rod's contract. Hope that gut feeling is wrong.
Anyways, theoretically the Yankees should be declining, but I wouldn't think unless Sabathia got hurt, that the team will fall off the cliff. They should be around 90 wins but somehow they always wind up higher.
The Orioles are serious candidates for regression based on the "luck" factor they had last year. Negating that a little bit should be that they have two top notch rookies in Machado and Bundy. They should be around .500.
The Rays still have the best pitching in the league. It'll be interesting to see what they do. To me they look like an upper 80s win team, but we'll see - I have a feeling they'll deal some pitching for some offense.
The Blue Jays made themselves a much better team in 2013 with that deal yesterday and are legit contenders.
That leaves the Sox who will most likely finish in last place again even with improvements.
And I don't even really think that's a bad thing. I'd hate to see the Sox empty the cupboards for a shot at winning 87 games. I'd prefer the Sox keep Bogaerts, Bradley, and Barnes and try incorporating Iglesias and Lavarnway into regular roles.
The Sox are in transition. They're not built to win in 2013, nor should they really be. When Toronto is paying the big dollar repercussions of the trade, the Sox should pass them by. Sooner or later Tampa will lose David Price and other pitching and the Sox will pass them by.
My guess is eventually once the Yankees get past the CBA window, they'll be back to themselves. My guess is by 2015 - 2018 the Sox and Yanks will be battling it out for the AL East again.
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Post by soxcentral on Nov 14, 2012 13:50:49 GMT -5
I'd hate to see the Sox empty the cupboards for a shot at winning 87 games. . Now I have to ask....what is with the 87 win number you've been pushing for like, a year?
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Post by joemooneysgarden on Nov 14, 2012 13:57:03 GMT -5
While this deal definitely makes Toronto more competitive, especially in a wide-open AL East race, it could also potentially hamstring them with some pretty ugly contracts in a couple of years.
Granted, the Blue Jays were able to free themselves of the execrable Vernon Wells and Alex Rios contracts in the past, but the Reyes and Buehrle deals could really be disastrous if the former continues to get injured on a regular basis and the latter gets his brains beaten in by AL lineups.
This deal doesn't scare me too much, and with the right moves Boston can still be in contention for a wild card spot in 2013. Beyond that, they should have considerably more financial flexibility than three of the four teams in their division (New York, Toronto and Tampa), with arguably the deepest farm system.
Now, if Boston can just lay off any Free Agent that requires compensation...
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Post by sarasoxer on Nov 14, 2012 14:00:40 GMT -5
I'd hate to see the Sox empty the cupboards for a shot at winning 87 games. . Now I have to ask....what is with the 87 win number you've been pushing for like, a year? Yup. 0407 is an optimist... . I think for 2013, as presently constituted, the Sox could shoot for 80-85 wins. 2014 I would hope we would be back in the 90 range.
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Post by dmaineah on Nov 14, 2012 14:41:03 GMT -5
Does the trade make you think differently? No, It does not make me think differently. I fully expect the Red Sox to compete for the Division Title next year & every year. Anything less is unacceptable. I still fully expect the Red Sox to sign the best free agent hitter available - Josh Hamilton - to play a corner Outfield spot & bat 3rd or 4th. I still fully expect the Red Sox to sign either Grienke or Sanchez. I still fully expect the Red Sox to trade for another Big Bat to play 1B & bat 3rd or 4th. I still fully expect the Red Sox to sign or trade for an experienced SS to compete for the starting job with Iglesias. I still fully expect the Red Sox to sign or trade for a RH bat to play or platoon in a corner Outfield spot. I still fully expect Kalish, Sweeney, Sands, Nava, Gomez, De Jesus, Ciriaco to be traded or to compete for a bench spot. The Boston Red Sox have the money and the fan base and should absolutely be expected to compete for a playoff spot every year. None of this lets sign a bunch of guys for 1-3 year deals and play some of the kids and lets see what they can do and wait for the rest of the kids to develop. That's unacceptable!
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 14, 2012 14:51:09 GMT -5
The Boston Red Sox have the money and the fan base and should absolutely be expected to compete for a playoff spot every year. None of this lets sign a bunch of guys for 1-3 year deals and play some of the kids and lets see what they can do and wait for the rest of the kids to develop. That's unacceptable! You're vastly overestimating the Red Sox's structural advantages in today's MLB.
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Post by dmaineah on Nov 14, 2012 15:02:51 GMT -5
The Boston Red Sox have the money and the fan base and should absolutely be expected to compete for a playoff spot every year. None of this lets sign a bunch of guys for 1-3 year deals and play some of the kids and lets see what they can do and wait for the rest of the kids to develop. That's unacceptable! You're vastly overestimating the Red Sox's structural advantages in today's MLB. I haven't overestimated anything. Boston Red Sox Ownership & Front Office should be expected to put forward a Competitive Team under any changing circumstances every year. I expect them to have short, mid & long term plans and be able to adjust to any kind of changes that come their way. This is a Big Market Team & I expect Big things from not only the players on the field but from the people in charge of running things. Anything less is unacceptable.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 14, 2012 15:46:59 GMT -5
You're vastly overestimating the Red Sox's structural advantages in today's MLB. I haven't overestimated anything. Boston Red Sox Ownership & Front Office should be expected to put forward a Competitive Team under any changing circumstances every year. I expect them to have short, mid & long term plans and be able to adjust to any kind of changes that come their way. This is a Big Market Team & I expect Big things from not only the players on the field but from the people in charge of running things. Anything less is unacceptable. Considering the new CBA is MUCH more complicated than what you consider "Unacceptable". The rules are different. Ben Cherington has a lot more to think about than a GM of 5 years ago. If the Yanks are concerned or worried about the $179 figure for 2014, there is every reason for our GM to do the same. Stupid decisions NOW will KILL us later. You don't just throw stupid money after stupid money. The free agent class this year does not have a Manny Ramirez. I wish it did. What is happening for the Red Sox is very unique. Just re-loading with THESE players will not take care of the situation. We need to be smart. We do not need to go crazy and over-spend. I'm sorry that is unacceptable.
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Post by amfox1 on Nov 14, 2012 15:52:34 GMT -5
No, It does not make me think differently. I fully expect the Red Sox to compete for the Division Title next year & every year. Anything less is unacceptable. If the pitching comes through, this could happen. More realistically, this team is looking at 2013 as a bridge to get into the 84-88 win area and then increase the payroll in 2014 to seek a playoff spot.I still fully expect the Red Sox to sign the best free agent hitter available - Josh Hamilton - to play a corner Outfield spot & bat 3rd or 4th. No chance. He's looking for too much money and years, and the Red Sox are not going to take the risk with Hamilton. There's a reason he's on the market and TEX is not willing to go beyond three years.I still fully expect the Red Sox to sign either Grienke or Sanchez. No chance. Grienke is not cut out for the Boston market and Sanchez is looking for 6-7 years at $15mm/yr.I still fully expect the Red Sox to trade for another Big Bat to play 1B & bat 3rd or 4th. They'll sign or trade for someone. Not sure what your definition of "Big Bat" is, though.I still fully expect the Red Sox to sign or trade for an experienced SS to compete for the starting job with Iglesias. Agreed, but he won't be a front-line player.I still fully expect the Red Sox to sign or trade for a RH bat to play or platoon in a corner Outfield spot. Likely, with Cody Ross being the lead horse.I still fully expect Kalish, Sweeney, Sands, Nava, Gomez, De Jesus, Ciriaco to be traded or to compete for a bench spot. Not sure what this means. I expect Kalish and Ciriaco to remain with the team, together with either Gomez or Sands. The Boston Red Sox have the money and the fan base and should absolutely be expected to compete for a playoff spot every year. None of this lets sign a bunch of guys for 1-3 year deals and play some of the kids and lets see what they can do and wait for the rest of the kids to develop. That's unacceptable! Sounds like a lot of fanboy posturing, rather than actual long-term thinking. You've just described a recipe for NY Knick-style mediocrity over the long-term. Ben needs to make solid long-term decisions for the franchise, not just spend money to fill perceived holes.Wow, you're going to be very disappointed. My comments in bold.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 14, 2012 16:06:39 GMT -5
No, It does not make me think differently. I fully expect the Red Sox to compete for the Division Title next year & every year.Anything less is unacceptable. I still fully expect the Red Sox to sign the best free agent hitter available - Josh Hamilton - to play a corner Outfield spot & bat 3rd or 4th. I still fully expect the Red Sox to sign either Grienke or Sanchez. I still fully expect the Red Sox to trade for another Big Bat to play 1B & bat 3rd or 4th.I still fully expect the Red Sox to sign or trade for an experienced SS to compete for the starting job with Iglesias. I still fully expect the Red Sox to sign or trade for a RH bat to play or platoon in a corner Outfield spot. I still fully expect Kalish, Sweeney, Sands, Nava, Gomez, De Jesus, Ciriaco to be traded or to compete for a bench spot. The Boston Red Sox have the money and the fan base and should absolutely be expected to compete for a playoff spot every year. None of this lets sign a bunch of guys for 1-3 year deals and play some of the kids and lets see what they can do and wait for the rest of the kids to develop. That's unacceptable! In your plan, you want the Red Sox to trade Xander, JBJ, Cecchini, Workman, and Melancon for Fielder. Your plan also calls for trading more prospects/assets for OF/SS help, and would take the Red Sox over the luxury tax for the next few seasons. All this takes me back to your first statement...how do you expect the Red Sox to compete year in and year out by trading away their elite cost controlled talent, immediately going over the luxury tax, and loading up on expensive contracts for aging players? The Red Sox would have absolutely zero financial flexibility and would be forced into the same scenario as last winter, where they had players disappoint and get injured, but couldn't pay to fix the holes because they maxed out the budget. You can't sign the most expensive FA's in baseball and trade away your elite position player prospects, you need good value at a few spots. This is like the Phillies franchise model, except less sustainable and worse...at least they heavily invested in top pitching and just screwed up with Howard.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 14, 2012 16:19:10 GMT -5
You're vastly overestimating the Red Sox's structural advantages in today's MLB. I haven't overestimated anything. Boston Red Sox Ownership & Front Office should be expected to put forward a Competitive Team under any changing circumstances every year. I expect them to have short, mid & long term plans and be able to adjust to any kind of changes that come their way. This is a Big Market Team & I expect Big things from not only the players on the field but from the people in charge of running things. Anything less is unacceptable. Please explain why this is true.
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Post by dmaineah on Nov 14, 2012 16:20:53 GMT -5
I haven't overestimated anything. Boston Red Sox Ownership & Front Office should be expected to put forward a Competitive Team under any changing circumstances every year. I expect them to have short, mid & long term plans and be able to adjust to any kind of changes that come their way. This is a Big Market Team & I expect Big things from not only the players on the field but from the people in charge of running things. Anything less is unacceptable. Considering the new CBA is MUCH more complicated than what you consider "Unacceptable". The rules are different. Ben Cherington has a lot more to think about than a GM of 5 years ago. If the Yanks are concerned or worried about the $179 figure for 2014, there is every reason for our GM to do the same. Stupid decisions NOW will KILL us later. You don't just throw stupid money after stupid money. The free agent class this year does not have a Manny Ramirez. I wish it did. What is happening for the Red Sox is very unique. Just re-loading with THESE players will not take care of the situation. We need to be smart. We do not need to go crazy and over-spend. I'm sorry that is unacceptable. You are completely missing my point and trying to read something into my post that is not there. Let see if I can get you to understand. I don't care how or for what reason the landscape has changed in which the Boston Red Sox have to do Business or Compete in. I expect them to be able to have plans and contingencies in place to still be able to put a team on the field that is expected to compete for a Division Title. I don't care how much more complicated the CBA or the Rules are compared to 5yrs ago. And I don't care how Unique the situation is this year. I expect the Team not to be stupid & I expect The Team To Be Competitive. I expect the Projected Opening Day Roster to Compete for The Division Title Every Year. This is a Big Market Team & they should NEVER be in a position where they have to take a step back or have a "Bridge Year" to GET BACK to being competitive. That is unacceptable.
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Post by elguapo on Nov 14, 2012 16:22:17 GMT -5
The point is the Sox currently have tons of room for salary and with some good decision-making they should be able to field a winning team every year, at least "competing" for a wild card slot, sometimes seriously competing for a pennant or world series title.
Unfortunately there was some weak decision-making and there's a real hangover effect as a result. Unacceptable, maybe, but it happened.
Maybe the immediate plan is relatively modest, like signing Victorino and Napoli on mid-range deals, plus one or two 1-year pickups (why not?), swinging a trade or three, and keeping an eye out for opportunities in the next 8 months. But it's clear Cherington is considering a host of options, including high dollar free agent and trade acquisitions (Reyes/Johnson, Hamilton, Sanchez), so maybe it won't be so modest after all.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 14, 2012 16:31:27 GMT -5
You are completely missing my point and trying to read something into my post that is not there. Let see if I can get you to understand. I don't care how or for what reason the landscape has changed in which the Boston Red Sox have to do Business or Compete in. I expect them to be able to have plans and contingencies in place to still be able to put a team on the field that is expected to compete for a Division Title. I don't care how much more complicated the CBA or the Rules are compared to 5yrs ago. And I don't care how Unique the situation is this year. I expect the Team not to be stupid & I expect The Team To Be Competitive. I expect the Projected Opening Day Roster to Compete for The Division Title Every Year. This is a Big Market Team & they should NEVER be in a position where they have to take a step back or have a "Bridge Year" to GET BACK to being competitive. That is unacceptable. Do you think the Cubs or the Mets should be competitive next year? They play in bigger markets than the Red Sox do. Yet I think everyone would agree that a long-term rebuilding process is needed for both clubs.
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Post by dmaineah on Nov 14, 2012 16:39:57 GMT -5
In your plan, you want the Red Sox to trade Xander, JBJ, Cecchini, Workman, and Melancon for Fielder. Your plan also calls for trading more prospects/assets for OF/SS help, and would take the Red Sox over the luxury tax for the next few seasons. Yup, My plan just might take the team over the luxury tax. But I'm not the Pro siting at the Round Table making the decisions. I'm talking about what should be expected from the Front Office Team for a Big Market Team like The Boston Red Sox. Bust me all you want for my suggestions on what I think the team should do. But why should we/I as a fan of the team expect anything less then what I'm calling for from the Front Office? I think they should be held accountable to put together a team that has a realistic chance of competing for a Division Title Every Year.
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Post by dmaineah on Nov 14, 2012 16:50:07 GMT -5
I don't care about The Cubs or The Mets or any other Larger Market team. I care about The Boston Red Sox and quite frankly find it very disturbing that so many posters here are fine with anything less then what I am calling for from the Front Office.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 14, 2012 17:21:34 GMT -5
In your plan, you want the Red Sox to trade Xander, JBJ, Cecchini, Workman, and Melancon for Fielder. Your plan also calls for trading more prospects/assets for OF/SS help, and would take the Red Sox over the luxury tax for the next few seasons. Yup, My plan just might take the team over the luxury tax. But I'm not the Pro siting at the Round Table making the decisions. I'm talking about what should be expected from the Front Office Team for a Big Market Team like The Boston Red Sox. Bust me all you want for my suggestions on what I think the team should do. But why should we/I as a fan of the team expect anything less then what I'm calling for from the Front Office? I think they should be held accountable to put together a team that has a realistic chance of competing for a Division Title Every Year. There are 29 other franchises in baseball, expecting to be a playoff team every single season is unrealistic. We aren't dealing with a cheap ownership here. Other teams have money too, and no, the Red Sox can't sign every good free agent on the market. You have no idea what the Dodgers or Angels are willing to offer Greinke, or what offers are out for Hamilton. Advocating to sign the yearly best free agents for blank checks isn't a strategy. Wanting to deal the top two prospects for a guy who signed a huge contract last year is a bad strategy. You can spend $175m on payroll without signing multiple guys long term for $20m+ AAV. The Red Sox have a ton of resources, but they don't have the deepest pockets in baseball. Your plan wouldn't just take them over the tax next year, but it would force them to be up against the cap for years to come, at least the next 3-4 years. With the new cap penalties, the Red Sox can't sustain that spending AND supplement the necessary talent when future team inevitably need upgrades, ESPECIALLY when you just dealt the near ready elite MLB talent. What is your plan when that core inevitably needs upgrades? Spend $400m on Bryce Harper in five years? We aren't playing with monopoly money, this is real life. Everyone wants instant gratification, but when this plan fails you'll want instant gratification then too.
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Post by dmaineah on Nov 14, 2012 17:30:22 GMT -5
beasleyrockah - You completely miss my point. No sense going any further with you on this topic.
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