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Post by Mike Andrews on Jun 11, 2015 8:18:47 GMT -5
Please use this thread for general draft discussion. I'll post my "super wicked early signing projections" shortly.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 11, 2015 8:33:45 GMT -5
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 11, 2015 8:36:10 GMT -5
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jun 11, 2015 8:39:15 GMT -5
Here are my "super wicked early speculative gut-check predictions" for the 2015 signing season. I don't have any inside info behind this yet, these predictions are just based on gut feel and years of history. (Although there have been some reports on Logan Allen's potential bonus). These have usually been fairly solid projections in years past, but they're just that - projections with a significant amount of possible variability. Feedback is welcome and appreciated. I will update as more info comes in and as opinions evolve.
Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap)
Round, Overall Pick, Player, Projected Bonus
1 (7) Andrew Benintendi $3,000,000
3 (81) Austin Rei $700,000
4 (111) Tate Matheny $500,000
5 (141) Jagger Rusconi $384,000
6 (171) Travis Lakins $287,500
7 (201) Ben Taylor $10,000
8 (231) Logan Allen $725,000
9 (261) Tucker Tubbs $10,000
10 (291) Mitchell Gunsolus $25,000
After 10th round, above $100K (first $100,000 does not count towards bonus cap)
11 (321) Nick Hamilton $250,000
14 (411) Bobby Poyner $150,000
16 (471) Mark Brakeman $150,000
18 (531) James Nelson $200,000
20 (591) Yomar Valentin $250,000
23 (681) Kyri Washington $400,000
25 (741) Andrew Noviello $150,000
After 10th round, possible $100,000 or less signs (count $0 towards cap)
12 (351) Kevin Kelleher
13 (381) Matt Kent
15 (441) Jerry Downs
17 (501) Chad De La Guerra
19 (561) Logan Boyd
21 (621) Danny Zandona
22 (651) Max Watt
24 (711) Brad Stone
27 (801) Saige Jenco
29 (861) Will Stillman
32 (951) Clate Schmidt
34 (1011) Nick Lovullo
35 (1041) Tyler Spoon
36 (1071) Trevor Kelley
37 (1101) Adam Lau
Total spent towards cap using these projections: $6,491,500
Red Sox Cap: $6,223,800
Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $6,534,990
Super wicked early projected not to sign
26 (771) Kevin Ginkel
28 (831) Steve Mangrum
30 (891) Jack Conley
31 (921) Nick Duron
33 (981) Cal Smith
38 (1131) CJ Ballard
39 (1161) Daniel Reyes
40 (1191) DJ Artis
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 11, 2015 8:39:54 GMT -5
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 11, 2015 8:41:46 GMT -5
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Jun 11, 2015 8:42:33 GMT -5
Josh Hyber@joshhyber·18h18 hours ago
Red Sox draftee Bobby Poyner: "They were who I really wanted to sign w/ after spending 2 summers in the Cape." A scout texted him to inform.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 11, 2015 8:54:38 GMT -5
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Post by taftreign on Jun 11, 2015 9:01:44 GMT -5
After 10th round, possible $100,000 or less signs (count $0 towards cap)
11 (351) Kevin Kelleher Should read: 12 (351) Kevin Kelleher |
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Post by jdb on Jun 11, 2015 9:05:51 GMT -5
Regarding Schmidt. Clemson fired their coach last week so that may factor into his descion. I know their coach was a hard ass and players were split on him but I don't know what side of the fence he was on.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 11, 2015 9:11:17 GMT -5
I don't see how Bobby Poyner is any different than Whitson, Shepherd and Beeks who all got 100k last year. I would assume he is a 100k or less signing this year.
I also think Marc Brakeman will need more than 150k to sign as he is a draft-eligible sophomore who was rumored to go in the top three rounds before injury. He is also from Stanford who are known for keeping their guys.
Thanks for putting together the list!
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jun 11, 2015 10:09:06 GMT -5
Brakeman is a junior but I still think you might be right
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 11, 2015 10:28:05 GMT -5
Brakeman is a junior but I still think you might be right Whoops, you are right about that. I could also see Kyri Washington getting less....maybe 200-300k. No inside info here just thinking that as a very low floor player (who hit sub .300 in college) and at a lesser school, his leverage might not be that huge. |
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 11, 2015 10:34:05 GMT -5
Not sure about the bonus Washington could command, but $400k is a lot of coin to throw at a guy with that profile. A ton of risk there. I might go there at the deadline of there was money left, but I think I'd have other priorities. It will be interesting to see what he gets and/or is looking for.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 11, 2015 10:47:58 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 11, 2015 11:07:37 GMT -5
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Post by bigpupp on Jun 11, 2015 11:49:40 GMT -5
Useless information, but I believe he is the first player drafted by the Red Sox to win that award (it's only been around since 1981). Other winners that have played for the Sox include: John Olerud, J.D. Drew, Jason Varitek, David McCarty, and Andrew Miller (Mark Prior too, but he only played for Pawtucket).
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 11, 2015 12:22:15 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 11, 2015 12:53:17 GMT -5
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Post by soxfanatic on Jun 11, 2015 17:01:03 GMT -5
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Post by mjammz on Jun 11, 2015 17:31:59 GMT -5
Kendall Rogers @kendallrogersd1
Hearing Texas A&M will get hit hard by the draft. LHP Matt Kent, OF Logan Taylor expected to sign, P Chris Paddack, a prep star, will sign.
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Post by saysbill on Jun 11, 2015 21:03:53 GMT -5
From MLBTradeRumors (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/06/draft-signings-andrew-moore-tanner-rainey.html)
"Red Sox eighth-rounder Logan Allen says that he is in verbal agreement with the club on an above-slot deal between $725K and $750K, Andrew Pearson of the Citizen-Times reports. The 231st pick came with just a $175,100 bonus allocation. Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs had the IMG Academy southpaw, who was a South Carolina commit, rated as the 100th-best draft-eligible player coming in."
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 11, 2015 22:26:20 GMT -5
I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around the Matheny pick at that slot. Thoughts?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 11, 2015 22:47:36 GMT -5
I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around the Matheny pick at that slot. Thoughts? What about it? It was entirely in line with where he'd been ranked by the various publications. |
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 11, 2015 22:54:47 GMT -5
I get that he was ranked there, I did see the rankings. The scouting reports just seemed a little underwhelming from what I read. Maybe Im expecting too much from a 4th round pick. I also thought Logan Allen seemed like a bit of a steal in the 8th round.
I'm no expert I was just hoping someone might explain it better.
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