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Post by jmei on Jul 11, 2015 8:47:13 GMT -5
If it's TJ like we fear would we pick up his option and see how he recovers? I'm sure it's insured. No, you cut your losses and move on. I don't think it's so clear cut. Assuming one year's recovery time, if you pick up both options, that's $26m for a year and a half (or a year and a third) of Buccholz. Even if he comes back a notch worse than he's been this year, that's worth considering.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 11, 2015 8:54:14 GMT -5
No, you cut your losses and move on. I don't think it's so clear cut. Assuming one year's recovery time, if you pick up both options, that's $26m for a year and a half (or a year and a third) of Buccholz. Even if he comes back a notch worse than he's been this year, that's worth considering. Buccholz can't stay healthy when he's healthy. What makes you think he could pitch for 1yr and a half without getting hurt again? Just doesn't have the body you need to front a staff. Move on if TJ. Unless he wants to rehab with the Sox because he's comfortable with the organization. Offer him 2-3m next year.
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Post by jmei on Jul 11, 2015 9:05:22 GMT -5
Like I said, he doesn't have to perform at an All-Star level or stay healthy to be worth that money. He needs to be worth something like three-and-a-half wins over that year and a third. I'd bet on that happening.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 11, 2015 9:39:17 GMT -5
Like I said, he doesn't have to perform at an All-Star level or stay healthy to be worth that money. He needs to be worth something like three-and-a-half wins over that year and a third. I'd bet on that happening. He takes awhile to get his mechanics back after he's hurt though. It's pretty much like clockwork.
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 11, 2015 9:59:22 GMT -5
Like I said, he doesn't have to perform at an All-Star level or stay healthy to be worth that money. He needs to be worth something like three-and-a-half wins over that year and a third. I'd bet on that happening. There's also a non-negligible chance of him never being any good again. TJ doesn't have a 100% success rate. Given the risk, you probably have to think he gives you more like 4 wins, which is a lot to ask of a 32 year old who has been inconsistent his whole career. I agree that it's not an obvious call, but I would err on the side of not picking up the option and putting that money towards another starter.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 11, 2015 10:39:17 GMT -5
No, you cut your losses and move on. I don't think it's so clear cut. Assuming one year's recovery time, if you pick up both options, that's $26m for a year and a half (or a year and a third) of Buccholz. Even if he comes back a notch worse than he's been this year, that's worth considering. Seems like a waste. You still have to fill Clay's spot in the rotation, which makes the cost $26mm++. Plus, the Red Sox will not want to exceed the luxury tax threshold two years in a row. Plus, there is no guarantee that you get a healthy ace Buchholz before 2017, if at all.
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Post by soxfan4life on Jul 11, 2015 11:47:11 GMT -5
Buchholz is a great pitcher but we all have to agree on one thing, he is not durable.I do believe we can contend if we can find a # 1 starter .Even if Buchholz is that good, we will always be wondering when will the time come when he misses 4 -6 weeks of the season.When if he comes back,we should trade him when his value is at its highest once he proves he is healthy again.
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Post by jmei on Jul 11, 2015 17:14:09 GMT -5
I'm increasingly of the opinion that the luxury tax is a red herring and that their being over it is not a significant concern going forward. I also think they can fill the spot internally (one of Kelly, Johnson, Owens or Wright)
It is a fair point that $26m for a year and change is a lot to pay for a high-risk pitcher, but I think it's not that much of an overpay. If guys like Masterson and Anderson are getting $10m, Buchholz would easily get a one-year deal in the $15m range, and if you prorate that for a year and a third, you're at least in the neighborhood.
Hopefully this was all for naught and he's back not too much later than the trade deadline.
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Post by ray88h66 on Jul 11, 2015 17:27:08 GMT -5
I'm increasingly of the opinion that the luxury tax is a red herring and that their being over it is not a significant concern going forward. I also think they can fill the spot internally (one of Kelly, Johnson, Owens or Wright) It is a fair point that $26m for a year and change is a lot to pay for a high-risk pitcher, but I think it's not that much of an overpay. If guys like Masterson and Anderson are getting $10m, Buchholz would easily get a one-year deal in the $15m range, and if you prorate that for a year and a third, you're at least in the neighborhood. Hopefully this was all for naught and he's back not too much later than the trade deadline. [/b] He's being shut down for a week. Best case is early August. He would need two sides and one minor league start or simulated game. My bad, I read before the deadline.
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Post by ray88h66 on Jul 13, 2015 16:50:48 GMT -5
I know I shouldn't post this without a link, but I'm use to being flamed. Heard on the radio that Clay is still feeling pain in his elbow. Likely to be shut down more than a week. Won't be allowed to throw till he's pain free.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 16, 2015 17:39:50 GMT -5
I know I shouldn't post this without a link, but I'm use to being flamed. Heard on the radio that Clay is still feeling pain in his elbow. Likely to be shut down more than a week. Won't be allowed to throw till he's pain free. If you (not literally you Ray) expect him back before September (if at all), you are kidding yourself. This is Clay Buchholz.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2015 19:24:06 GMT -5
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