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2015 Red Sox Trade Deadline Strategy
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Post by GyIantosca on Jun 18, 2015 14:54:36 GMT -5
This is great, if someone summit this to Ben. All he would have to do is decline or trade Buch clear that money and at the end you have 35.7 million in the kitty. Get your number one or CLOSE to it. You can argue a savings of about 10 million.
I believe this team is not as bad as they are playing. Plus our number one pick will be protected probably. I mean the team is gonna give Ortiz a mulligan.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,305
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Post by radiohix on Jun 18, 2015 15:28:33 GMT -5
The so-called "decline" in Pablo Sandoval's performance over the past several years is entirely attributable to a declining ability to hit lefthanded pitching when batting righthanded. Well, that's a declining hitting skill, no?
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Post by arzjake on Jun 18, 2015 17:04:44 GMT -5
Not sure if that's true. Being over the luxury tax threshold this year means they won't be next year. 2016 AAV commitments: PitchersStarters: Porcello (20.63) Buchholz (assume option picked up, 13.00) E.Rodriguez (0.55) Miley (6.42) Kelly (arb1, assume 1.50) Bullpen:Uehara (9.00) Tazawa (arb3, assume 3.00) Ogando (arb3, assume 2.00) Barnes (0.55) Light (0.55) Layne (0.55) Wright (0.55) Position playersCF – Bradley, Jr. (0.55) 2B – Pedroia (13.30) DH – Ortiz (assume option vests, 15.00) LF – Betts (0.55) 3B – Sandoval (19.00) 1B – H.Ramirez (22.00) SS – Bogaerts (0.55) RF – Castillo (10.36) C – Hanigan (3.59) Holt (0.55) Vazquez/Swihart (0.55) +2 bench players (assume 5.00 combined) (assume no Craig/Varvaro/Ross/Nava on 25-man, assume all FAs leave (Napoli/Victorino/Breslow/Masterson/De Aza))That is 149.3 AAV + 17.00 for 40 man/benefits, or 166.3 total. That leaves approx $22.7mm for upgrades, based on a luxury tax threshold of $189mm (per the CBA). Last month I had been looking at the same thing (got 23M as my estimate) when I was trying to figure out how they could add an 'Ace' for 2016. Only thing I can think of is that they trade Miley (would make things a bit tight on the cap as Aces cost 25M+) or they trade Buchholz, but trading Buch will mean losing their best current pitcher. Finding a way to move Ortiz would work, but that would cause a Holt/Castillo/Ramirez OF/DH/1B platoon that would leave the team thin in case of injury/ineffectiveness elsewhere. One glimmer of hope (probably not the right word) - there is still time to reduce the luxury tax number this year so that they can go over next year.... In my mind I was thinking Castillo in LF, Betts in CF and Bradley in RF since (from mostly what i hear/read) Castillo is the worst route-runner of the 3 and LF at Fenway could be a better fit (Betts in LF seems like a waste for 50% of the games). Do you feel Castillo in RF is superior? Trades need to be made. As I stated before, if you "CAN GET" value, (some straight up salary dumps), for say Miley, CBuc, Koji, maybe somebody takes Craig with another piece, Dodgers owed money is off the books at 4 million, Ortiz? well who knows but you can get down to I believe 90 million. I believe if the Sox want they can get to that amount. With Ortiz your at 101, that also includes at least 1mill for 7 or 8 Arb players.. I said it once, I'll say it again, Sandoval has value, his post season numbers prove it, now there would only be a few suitors, but I believe a deal could be had. After last nights phone debacle, he goes and he goes tomorrow. If Im Cherington, Im on the phone with SD involving CBuc in a sell mode or perhaps Upton Kimbrell in a buy mode since Padres sold the farm to win it this year, or perhaps they have a fire sale due to already dumping the Manager. Upton? well. Now Kimbrell different story under team control. Cherington strikes me as no dummy. He is a Duquette disciple where DD's motto was sign 3 players at 18 mill instead of one at 18. Exactly what you had in 13 after the AGone trade. That is why I believe Ownership has a little to much say in Player Personnel. Ben makes a great deal for EROD, yet stumbles with Lackey for Craig? 2 FA bust at the moment in Panda HRam. I don't see Ben being that stupid, I just don't. Luchinno, Henry involved? I believe NESN has a big say in what and who is traded for or spent.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jun 18, 2015 17:49:05 GMT -5
The so-called "decline" in Pablo Sandoval's performance over the past several years is entirely attributable to a declining ability to hit lefthanded pitching when batting righthanded. Well, that's a declining hitting skill, no? No, not if he can hit LHPs better batting lefthanded.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 18, 2015 18:17:20 GMT -5
Trades need to be made. As I stated before, if you "CAN GET" value, (some straight up salary dumps), for say Miley, CBuc, Koji, maybe somebody takes Craig with another piece, Dodgers owed money is off the books at 4 million, Ortiz? well who knows but you can get down to I believe 90 million. I believe if the Sox want they can get to that amount. With Ortiz your at 101, that also includes at least 1mill for 7 or 8 Arb players.. I said it once, I'll say it again, Sandoval has value, his post season numbers prove it, now there would only be a few suitors, but I believe a deal could be had. After last nights phone debacle, he goes and he goes tomorrow. If Im Cherington, Im on the phone with SD involving CBuc in a sell mode or perhaps Upton Kimbrell in a buy mode since Padres sold the farm to win it this year, or perhaps they have a fire sale due to already dumping the Manager. Upton? well. Now Kimbrell different story under team control. Cherington strikes me as no dummy. He is a Duquette disciple where DD's motto was sign 3 players at 18 mill instead of one at 18. Exactly what you had in 13 after the AGone trade. That is why I believe Ownership has a little to much say in Player Personnel. Ben makes a great deal for EROD, yet stumbles with Lackey for Craig? 2 FA bust at the moment in Panda HRam. I don't see Ben being that stupid, I just don't. Luchinno, Henry involved? I believe NESN has a big say in what and who is traded for or spent. Since this is the trade forum, why don't you give us some realistic and fair trades to mull over?
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,305
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Post by radiohix on Jun 18, 2015 18:28:02 GMT -5
Well, that's a declining hitting skill, no? No, not if he can hit LHPs better batting lefthanded. So it's all hypothetical?
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 18, 2015 18:58:48 GMT -5
“@jared_Carrabis: Per @nickcafardo, scouts are looking at Clay Buchholz, but he questions Red Sox willingness to move him.”
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Post by bannedfromsosh on Jun 18, 2015 19:40:29 GMT -5
Holt might have more value to another team than he does to the Sox. The cycle excepted, Holt is a good hitting middle infielder, and while a very capable defender in the outfield he doesn't have the power generally required for an outfielder, and this is especially true with the Sox. Another team that has sufficient power hitting already might find him very helpful because of his OBP and versatility. He isn't a permanent solution in the outfield. At this point it makes more sense for the team to try to find one, whether it is Castillo, or someone else. He might be about the valuable position player trade chip the Sox have right now. Holt may not have the track record of Zobrist, but he's the sort of versatile position player that contending teams are already seeking out. Apparently Beane asked the Nationals for Michael Taylor....so that type of return seems somewhat realistic. This year, Holt has proven to be healthier, cheaper, and better at the plate. It's easy to argue that Holt may fetch a nice piece. Regardless, I'd like to see Ben sell high on Holt and Clay. Standing pat because we still look good on paper for 2016 is the same sort of flawed logic that got us into this mess. The team needs a bonafide ace and a 1st baseman for next year. Clearing Clay's salary opens up the potential to bring in a more reliable SP1/2 via free agency, and trading Holt gives us the prospect flexibility needed to bring in a replacement for Napoli at 1b (the FA options offer little comfort). I'm sure we'd all be pretty comfortable seeing Miley get dealt for salary relief as well. I'd take a bag of balls if the salary considerations didn't have us eating too much against the luxury threshold. Like Clay, there are times where he pitches above his pay grade, but the inconsistency is too much of a concern....as is the penchant for putting up very crooked numbers. Cueto and a relatively cheap mid/back-of-the-rotation starter (someone LIKE Harang) would represent much more stability than Clay and Wade currently represent. Of course, if the cheap SP we take a flier on doesn't work out, its much easier to slide in Johnson or Owens. SP1: Cueto/Zimmerman (25m) SP2: EdRod (Min) SP3: Porcello (20m) SP4: Kelly (Near Min) SP5: Buehrle/Floyd/Haren/Latos/Lohse/Norris/Simon/Harang (7-13m) *Not all these guys will command this range, but you get the point.... Depth: Johnson/Owens/Workman/Wright ....also should point out that Cliff Lee might be worth a gamble if the price is right and expectations are VERY LOW. I'm also in favor of dealing Tazawa and Koji. Not expecting an EdRod return like last year, but a few useful pieces that fill organizational holes would be nice. Position Players should be similar: OF: Betts, Castillo, Hanley IF: Panda, Bogaerts, Pedey, _____ C: Vasquez, Swihart DH: Ortiz A few points: 1. Its optimistic, but fair, to assume that Hanley can at least improve his LF defense as this year goes on. I still believe he'll be one of the worst fielders in baseball, but I don't think a shift to 1B is gonna be any prettier or easy to facilitate until we DFA Napoli on August 1st. Let's just assume that this is a crappy scenario that we simply cannot escape without a huge "Ortiz pushed out the door" scandal. I think the Sox avoid that sort of negativity, as business is bad enough. 2. Sometimes you have to take gambles that make you feel uncomfortable in life. For the Sox, trading one of their two catchers seems like a necessary evil to improve the roster overall. I have no qualms about having a two-headed monster at the dish for years to come, but catchers with their talent are sparse in the majors, and this means we'll match up well with other teams. 3. 1B strikes me as one of the toughest spots to fill. I wouldn't even be surprised if they brought Napoli back on a 1 yr/6m contract. An outside the box option might be converting Wieters to the position, as his catching days may soon be behind him (30 years old). The best trade targets are probably out of reach (Goldschmidt Freeman), so its gonna take some creativity and good luck to field a first baseman who hits like you'd want. Finally the bullpen is such a crapshoot for any team that you might as well start 2016 with all the kids, and if the team is in contention you deal for a more established guy. Barnes, Escobar, Hembree, Ogando, Workman, Wright, Light, and Aro is a huge risk, but it costs nothing, and a better rotation should minimize their exposure. If you can pry Chapman from the Reds without giving up a stud, I guess you do that.
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Post by larrycook on Jun 18, 2015 20:23:54 GMT -5
3. 1B strikes me as one of the toughest spots to fill. I wouldn't even be surprised if they brought Napoli back on a 1 yr/6m contract. An outside the box option might be converting Wieters to the position, as his catching days may soon be behind him (30 years old). The best trade targets are probably out of reach (Goldschmidt Freeman), so its gonna take some creativity and good luck to field a first baseman who hits like you'd want. There is no bigger gildschmidt fan than me, but he and freeman are probably out of reach. And I am deadset against us trading for washed up Phillies veterans, but I am all for trading for Phillies prospects Nola and Franco, who could solve our first base problem. We can easily put together a package of some combination of kelly, tawaza, Owens, Johnson plus whoever.
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Post by bannedfromsosh on Jun 18, 2015 20:33:25 GMT -5
Just spitballing here, but is there any reason to believe Castillo could get some reps at 1st when we're out of contention?
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,980
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Post by jimoh on Jun 18, 2015 20:43:21 GMT -5
Castillo at 1b? Height: 5' 9"
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Post by xanderbogaerts2 on Jun 18, 2015 20:48:05 GMT -5
Astros have been linked, anyway we could pry Appel? he hasn't had a good start to pro ball but does have nasty deceptive stuff.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 18, 2015 20:53:53 GMT -5
Just spitballing here, but is there any reason to believe Castillo could get some reps at 1st when we're out of contention? Castillo's not hitting well enough to get in the lineup in RF, nevermind 1B. Castillo could get some more reps in Pawtucket.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 18, 2015 21:28:47 GMT -5
I honestly think the game of musical chairs in RF needs to stop. Just put one of bradley or castillo in there, and put the other in AAA and stick with it for a while, and they both get playing time everday. We're a freaking last place team, we have time to let them figure it out. Yeah Holt might be playing better than either of them right now but he should be playing the Zobrist role and probably should be pawned off any day now for prospects.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 18, 2015 21:50:24 GMT -5
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Post by ray88h66 on Jun 19, 2015 7:34:36 GMT -5
I was wrong again. I thought he'd at least consider Minnesota. Sox are stuck with two DH's, Papi and Hanley. And two guys that are playing their way to DH status in Panda and Rusney. What a mess.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 19, 2015 8:27:33 GMT -5
Sox are stuck with two DH's, Papi and Hanley. And two guys that are playing their way to DH status in Panda and Rusney. What a mess. If the Red Sox wanted to send a strong message, they would start platooning Ortiz and Hanley at DH. I disagree with the second sentence entirely. This is just an overreaction on Panda, who is off to a not-stellar beginning in Boston, and a rush to judgment on Rusney (who definitely is not a DH, in any event).
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Post by jdb on Jun 19, 2015 10:52:14 GMT -5
I know someone mentioned this week about trading Hanley for a bad/big contract and Rosenthalls article got me thinking if there's anyone out there?
Say the Brewers would trade Braun and his extra year on his deal would you do that? What if the Reds came and said they're rebuilding and would work something similar to the Prince/Kinsler trade with Votto thinking they'd rather get out of Votto's 8+ years in favor of a 3+ with Hanley and they may could trade him.
Any thoughts?
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 19, 2015 11:26:12 GMT -5
I'm not in favor of trading Hanley at this time, but you need to ask yourself these questions - how does Hanley make my team better? what position does he play? how much money am I willing to assume or which level of prospect am I trading? - before you start throwing teams out there.
If Hanley cannot play LF (and I am not yet convinced of this, BTW, on a long-term basis), can he play 3B? 1B? SS? If an NL team doesn't think he can play the field, why would a NL team trade for him, even if Boston subsidizes the cost? If it's an AL team, does it have a permanent DH or does it rotate players?
I think this organization, before it considers making such a trade (and I do not believe they are considering it), has to determine its plan with Ortiz. If Ortiz will be phased out, then keeping Hanley seems like a decent move (when he was signed, we all assumed he would take over at DH when Ortiz retired after this year or next).
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Post by Jonathan Singer on Jun 20, 2015 7:27:05 GMT -5
If I am the Sox one way I would try to force Ortiz to waive his 10/5 rights would be to play Hanley at DH more than him.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 20, 2015 8:16:19 GMT -5
If I am the Sox one way I would try to force Ortiz to waive his 10/5 rights would be to play Hanley at DH more than him. You could do that, but you'd be depriving the lineup of a guy who mashes righties still, which is something the Sox lineup still needs. If given a theoretical choice between forcing a true Red Sox icon like Papi out or getting out from under Hanley's contract, I'd choose the latter because if another team wanted to take on Hanley's contract, the Sox could always spend that money to get a hitter Hanley's caliber, but one who could perhaps play a necessary position such as 1b, but in reality it's a silly exercise given that unless the Sox subsidize a good portion of Hanley's contract, he isn't going anywhere, and Papi is going to stay with the Sox for as long as he wants, which is probably thru next year after he hits his 500th homer.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 20, 2015 12:23:54 GMT -5
You could do that, but you'd be depriving the lineup of a guy who mashes righties still, which is something the Sox lineup still needs. After all we don't want the 7th pick in the draft again.
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Post by sibbysisti on Jun 20, 2015 14:03:09 GMT -5
Trades need to be made. As I stated before, if you "CAN GET" value, (some straight up salary dumps), for say Miley, CBuc, Koji, maybe somebody takes Craig with another piece, Dodgers owed money is off the books at 4 million, Ortiz? well who knows but you can get down to I believe 90 million. I believe if the Sox want they can get to that amount. With Ortiz your at 101, that also includes at least 1mill for 7 or 8 Arb players.. I said it once, I'll say it again, Sandoval has value, his post season numbers prove it, now there would only be a few suitors, but I believe a deal could be had. After last nights phone debacle, he goes and he goes tomorrow. If Im Cherington, Im on the phone with SD involving CBuc in a sell mode or perhaps Upton Kimbrell in a buy mode since Padres sold the farm to win it this year, or perhaps they have a fire sale due to already dumping the Manager. Upton? well. Now Kimbrell different story under team control. Cherington strikes me as no dummy. He is a Duquette disciple where DD's motto was sign 3 players at 18 mill instead of one at 18. Exactly what you had in 13 after the AGone trade. That is why I believe Ownership has a little to much say in Player Personnel. Ben makes a great deal for EROD, yet stumbles with Lackey for Craig? 2 FA bust at the moment in Panda HRam. I don't see Ben being that stupid, I just don't. Luchinno, Henry involved? I believe NESN has a big say in what and who is traded for or spent. Since this is the trade forum, why don't you give us some realistic and fair trades to mull over? Well, the Trade Subforum does carry the caption "Go nuts...." Guess he's taking advantage of it.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 20, 2015 15:50:16 GMT -5
You could do that, but you'd be depriving the lineup of a guy who mashes righties still, which is something the Sox lineup still needs. After all we don't want the 7th pick in the draft again. Nothing like sarcasm. The Sox are quite capable of drafting 7th or higher regardless of whether Ortiz or Ramirez is the DH. I just prefer Ortiz and his swan song over having to pay Hanley over 4 years if his contract suddenly was unloadable.
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Post by larrycook on Jun 20, 2015 17:09:24 GMT -5
If I am the Sox one way I would try to force Ortiz to waive his 10/5 rights would be to play Hanley at DH more than him. Is that also a plan to keep year 2 of Ortiz's contract from vesting?
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