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2015 Red Sox Trade Deadline Strategy
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Post by sibbysisti on Jun 20, 2015 21:37:49 GMT -5
If I am the Sox one way I would try to force Ortiz to waive his 10/5 rights would be to play Hanley at DH more than him. The Sox want to keep Papi in the organization post playing career. His name carries a lot of weight, a la Pedro, in Latin baseball venues. But, by playing Hanley more at DH, it reduces Papi's PAs to the point where he wouldn't have enough to qualify for an extension.
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Post by Jonathan Singer on Jun 21, 2015 10:00:35 GMT -5
If I am the Sox one way I would try to force Ortiz to waive his 10/5 rights would be to play Hanley at DH more than him. The Sox want to keep Papi in the organization post playing career. His name carries a lot of weight, a la Pedro, in Latin baseball venues. But, by playing Hanley more at DH, it reduces Papi's PAs to the point where he wouldn't have enough to qualify for an extension. Pedro didn't finish his career with the Red Sox. Continuing to pick up Ortiz's options hurts this team down the road. I wish the Red Sox would take a page from the Patriots and learn to get rid of a guy early than late. I'm all for bringing back Ortiz when his career is over but we shouldn't need to kiss his *** to keep him happy.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 21, 2015 12:53:34 GMT -5
The Sox want to keep Papi in the organization post playing career. His name carries a lot of weight, a la Pedro, in Latin baseball venues. But, by playing Hanley more at DH, it reduces Papi's PAs to the point where he wouldn't have enough to qualify for an extension. Pedro didn't finish his career with the Red Sox. Continuing to pick up Ortiz's options hurts this team down the road. I wish the Red Sox would take a page from the Patriots and learn to get rid of a guy early than late. I'm all for bringing back Ortiz when his career is over but we shouldn't need to kiss his *** to keep him happy. I think it's a little different in that Pedro was in line for a huge payday, and Papi isn't. Pedro was also much younger and thought he had a lot more career ahead of him. Papi, at worst will be mediocre this year and not so good next year, but easily replaceable. With Pedro, the Sox wanted no part of a four year deal with him. Pedro had a strong 2005, but finally gave out thereafter, meaning three wasted years of his contract. I don't think it's quite one in the same, as I think the financial risk is a lot lesser with Ortiz, who did age much better than Pedro did.
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Post by sibbysisti on Jun 22, 2015 7:37:07 GMT -5
The Sox want to keep Papi in the organization post playing career. His name carries a lot of weight, a la Pedro, in Latin baseball venues. But, by playing Hanley more at DH, it reduces Papi's PAs to the point where he wouldn't have enough to qualify for an extension. Pedro didn't finish his career with the Red Sox. Continuing to pick up Ortiz's options hurts this team down the road. I wish the Red Sox would take a page from the Patriots and learn to get rid of a guy early than late. I'm all for bringing back Ortiz when his career is over but we shouldn't need to kiss his *** to keep him happy. My point is not in comparing careers or contract status. Rather by "a la Pedro" I wanted to point out that Papi has the same cache as Pedro that the Sox can use to their advantage once Papi's career is over. If, by limiting his PAs to less than 425, he would not qualify for the automatic renewal of his contract even if he were to pass his physical. It would be difficult to do barring injury.
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Post by soxfan4life on Jun 24, 2015 8:59:01 GMT -5
I would trade Haniigan because I think you can get something for him if not it allows the Sox to keep Swihart as their starting catcher.if they are out of it and he is progressing,why send him back to AAA anyways.I think Nava will be traded as Deaza is an upgrade in the outfield and on the bases.I also think that trading Tazawa and Uehara would help too.At least while there is a demand for them.
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Post by ray88h66 on Jun 24, 2015 9:57:31 GMT -5
I would trade Haniigan because I think you can get something for him if not it allows the Sox to keep Swihart as their starting catcher.if they are out of it and he is progressing,why send him back to AAA anyways.I think Nava will be traded as Deaza is an upgrade in the outfield and on the bases.I also think that trading Tazawa and Uehara would help too.At least while there is a demand for them. Love your avatar. Agree on trading Koji. Not Taz or Hannigan. Catching is too weak to dump a good catcher. Taz is a rubber arm, I want him on my team.
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Post by soxfan4life on Jun 24, 2015 10:43:01 GMT -5
As far as some of the things that were mentioned.I agree that David Ortiz would be a big recruiting asset once his playing days are overbut,if his performance diminishes so should his role.He may be upset about that but so wasn't Pedro when the Sox allowed him to sign with the Mets.He got over it and i am sure Ortiz will as well.I also think that the Sox need to see what their farm players can do so trading some of the position players that are on the last year of their contracts should be dealt.I think they could get something for Buchholz,Hannigan and Tazawa so if the right deal comes along,I think the Sox should pursue it.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 24, 2015 12:29:08 GMT -5
I would trade Haniigan because I think you can get something for him if not it allows the Sox to keep Swihart as their starting catcher.if they are out of it and he is progressing,why send him back to AAA anyways.I think Nava will be traded as Deaza is an upgrade in the outfield and on the bases.I also think that trading Tazawa and Uehara would help too.At least while there is a demand for them. The Red Sox traded WMB for Hanigan and Ben Cherington as much as admitted that they sold low on WMB. If WMB is considered a lot of value for Hanigan, it's hard to imagine that a catcher who is better as a backup because he can't hit much anymore would fetch the Sox much in a trade. Nava wouldn't fetch much in a trade either. Nor would DeAza. Holt, Tazawa, Uehara, and Buchholz would fetch the most value in a deal. Napoli would bring in something, but not much, but more than Hanigan or Nava or DeAza would.
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Post by jmei on Jun 24, 2015 12:39:09 GMT -5
a catcher who is better as a backup because he can't hit much anymore Ryan Hanigan has a 94 wRC+ this year and had a 92 wRC+ last year. That's above the league-average at catcher (87 wRC+) and would rank in the top twenty amongst catchers with 100+ PAs this year. That's not to mention his status as a well above-average pitch framer and overall defensive catcher. Hanigan might profile best as a backup because his age and injury history mean that it's not a great idea to give him a full starter's workload. But on a per-game basis, he's absolutely still a starting-caliber catcher. Fangraphs projects him to be worth about 2.5 wins per 600 PAs going forward. He's not going to fetch a blue-chip prospect or even a top-100-type guy, but there aren't a lot of above-average catchers available on the trade market and he might be able to fetch a useful piece (think an Edwin Escobar-type or a pre-breakout Frank Montas-type). If he's not going to be a part of the next contending Red Sox team, that's a trade I probably make.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 24, 2015 12:52:13 GMT -5
a catcher who is better as a backup because he can't hit much anymore Ryan Hanigan has a 94 wRC+ this year and had a 92 wRC+ last year. That's above the league-average at catcher (87 wRC+) and would rank in the top twenty amongst catchers with 100+ PAs this year. That's not to mention his status as a well above-average pitch framer and overall defensive catcher. Hanigan might profile best as a backup because his age and injury history mean that it's not a great idea to give him a full starter's workload. But on a per-game basis, he's absolutely still a starting-caliber catcher. Fangraphs projects him to be worth about 2.5 wins per 600 PAs going forward. He's not going to fetch a blue-chip prospect or even a top-100-type guy, but there aren't a lot of above-average catchers available on the trade market and he might be able to fetch a useful piece (think an Edwin Escobar-type or a pre-breakout Frank Montas-type). If he's not going to be a part of the next contending Red Sox team, that's a trade I probably make. Most of Hanigan's offensive value is tied up in his walks. That's the one offensive thing he does well. His OBP is respectable because of the walks, but it's getting lower as his BA declines as he ages and his hitting skills decline. He has no power to speak of. I suppose the bar for an offensive catcher is set low so Hanigan can clear it if he isn't overexposed, so the Sox might be able to get a lottery ticket type player for him. I'd have no problem if that's what they did. Those players normally don't amount to much, but it's not like the Sox can't live without Hanigan, so it's a gamble I wouldn't mind the Sox taking, but I wouldn't anticipate the move impacting the team in the future very much.
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Post by arzjake on Jun 24, 2015 18:48:17 GMT -5
a catcher who is better as a backup because he can't hit much anymore Ryan Hanigan has a 94 wRC+ this year and had a 92 wRC+ last year. That's above the league-average at catcher (87 wRC+) and would rank in the top twenty amongst catchers with 100+ PAs this year. That's not to mention his status as a well above-average pitch framer and overall defensive catcher. Hanigan might profile best as a backup because his age and injury history mean that it's not a great idea to give him a full starter's workload. But on a per-game basis, he's absolutely still a starting-caliber catcher. Fangraphs projects him to be worth about 2.5 wins per 600 PAs going forward. He's not going to fetch a blue-chip prospect or even a top-100-type guy, but there aren't a lot of above-average catchers available on the trade market and he might be able to fetch a useful piece (think an Edwin Escobar-type or a pre-breakout Frank Montas-type). If he's not going to be a part of the next contending Red Sox team, that's a trade I probably make. .255 OBPCT is selling low? Big Ben better go back to Harvard.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 24, 2015 19:29:38 GMT -5
I'm starting to think we're not going to want to give Napoli a QO. ZiPS/Steamer project him around 1 WAR the rest of the war, so a bit under 2 WAR prorated to an entire season. Throw in a bit more age-related decline and you could be looking at about a 1.5 WAR projection for next year.
Ideally you would want a 2 WAR projection to hand out a QO. Giving it to a 1.5 WAR player is possible, but you have to think he'll accept. That's not terrible in a vacuum, fits with the Sox philosophy of "overpay a bit for less years", but might not be a great fit unless they find a way to get rid of one of their two DHs.
So, better to avoid that headache by trading Napoli. The Pirates seem like an ideal trade partner in that Napoli would be a clear upgrade for them, they have very good playoff chances, and they are on a tight budget so will appreciate our willingness to cover Napoli's salary. All we want in return is another Brock Holt...
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Post by sibbysisti on Jun 24, 2015 21:00:27 GMT -5
I'm starting to think we're not going to want to give Napoli a QO. ZiPS/Steamer project him around 1 WAR the rest of the war, so a bit under 2 WAR prorated to an entire season. Throw in a bit more age-related decline and you could be looking at about a 1.5 WAR projection for next year. Ideally you would want a 2 WAR projection to hand out a QO. Giving it to a 1.5 WAR player is possible, but you have to think he'll accept. That's not terrible in a vacuum, fits with the Sox philosophy of "overpay a bit for less years", but might not be a great fit unless they find a way to get rid of one of their two DHs. So, better to avoid that headache by trading Napoli. The Pirates seem like an ideal trade partner in that Napoli would be a clear upgrade for them, they have very good playoff chances, and they are on a tight budget so will appreciate our willingness to cover Napoli's salary. All we want in return is another Brock Holt... .....or Mark Melancon.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 24, 2015 21:05:15 GMT -5
I'm starting to think we're not going to want to give Napoli a QO. ZiPS/Steamer project him around 1 WAR the rest of the war, so a bit under 2 WAR prorated to an entire season. Throw in a bit more age-related decline and you could be looking at about a 1.5 WAR projection for next year. Ideally you would want a 2 WAR projection to hand out a QO. Giving it to a 1.5 WAR player is possible, but you have to think he'll accept. That's not terrible in a vacuum, fits with the Sox philosophy of "overpay a bit for less years", but might not be a great fit unless they find a way to get rid of one of their two DHs. So, better to avoid that headache by trading Napoli. The Pirates seem like an ideal trade partner in that Napoli would be a clear upgrade for them, they have very good playoff chances, and they are on a tight budget so will appreciate our willingness to cover Napoli's salary. All we want in return is another Brock Holt... Napoli is in decline. The Sox would be foolish to spend $16 million or so on him as a stop gap at this point. Almost all players hit a point in their career where they become a shell of what they once were. Napoli is at that point, I believe.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 25, 2015 6:30:54 GMT -5
Ryan Hanigan has a 94 wRC+ this year and had a 92 wRC+ last year. That's above the league-average at catcher (87 wRC+) and would rank in the top twenty amongst catchers with 100+ PAs this year. That's not to mention his status as a well above-average pitch framer and overall defensive catcher. Hanigan might profile best as a backup because his age and injury history mean that it's not a great idea to give him a full starter's workload. But on a per-game basis, he's absolutely still a starting-caliber catcher. Fangraphs projects him to be worth about 2.5 wins per 600 PAs going forward. He's not going to fetch a blue-chip prospect or even a top-100-type guy, but there aren't a lot of above-average catchers available on the trade market and he might be able to fetch a useful piece (think an Edwin Escobar-type or a pre-breakout Frank Montas-type). If he's not going to be a part of the next contending Red Sox team, that's a trade I probably make. .255 OBPCT is selling low? Big Ben better go back to Harvard. It's not exactly high, is it?
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Post by jdb on Jun 27, 2015 18:26:52 GMT -5
Another good outing by Miley today. Given he's signed for two more years plus an option I'd bet he'd be appealing to a lot of teams.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,799
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Post by nomar on Jun 27, 2015 19:47:34 GMT -5
Another good outing by Miley today. Given he's signed for two more years plus an option I'd bet he'd be appealing to a lot of teams. He's inexpensive, and if we deal him we'd be out looking for another Wade Miley next offseason. I don't really see much of a point because he's probably not bringing in an impact talent.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 30, 2015 15:23:32 GMT -5
It may be heresy, but the Red Sox will have to ask Ortiz if he's willing to be moved to a playoff contender (assuming they guarantee the 2016 option, of course). Ortiz then frees up DH for Hanley and allows for a Castillo/Betts/Bradley OF. If they trade Ortiz, then the Red Sox also have to trade Victorino and Koji. Not sure what spot you are looking to open up by trading Napoli - Holt? Shaw? Also, I don't see the point of trading Hanigan; he takes over for Leon and he and Swihart split time. De Aza becomes your 4th OF, unless you somehow believe that Nava will be able to bounce back fully (I don't). I'm still on the fence with Buchholz, Ogando and Tazawa. My guess is that I'd keep Tazawa for now, unless blown away. I don't think we'll get value for Buchholz or Ogando, so my guess is that they stay under this scenario. Here's where I am as of this afternoon. 1. Don't do anything until the ASB, except figure out when/if Hanley, Nava ShaneO and Hanigan become/are healthy. Let Masterson keep his starting spot until the ASB and keep Kelly/Johnson/Craig in Pawtucket until then. 2. Use the ASB to gauge interest in our players, start laying the groundwork for trades and figure out promotion paths. However, if the Red Sox are less than seven games out of the 2nd WC, don't sell yet. Once/if the Red Sox are seven games out of the 2nd WC, they should be starting to sell into the market as follows: A. Players on the trade block would clearly include the FAs (Napoli, ShaneO, De Aza, Masterson, Breslow) to try to free up roster spots, save a little bit of money and get closer to the luxury tax threshold, although none of these players will bring back any significant return. B. The next tier of players to consider trading are the relievers (Koji, Taz and Ogando) and Buchholz, who are players who will free up money and bring back a significant return. The goal would be to get under the luxury tax threshold this year, open pitching spots for Johnson and either Kelly/Wright in the rotation and Light and Wright/Kelly in the bullpen, and get some additional prospects in trade to plug into the organization and/or to use as trade bait for upgrades.
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Post by jdb on Jul 3, 2015 12:41:32 GMT -5
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 3, 2015 15:23:20 GMT -5
Makes sense... given a 20% or thereabouts chance of making the playoffs if you add anything you want to add something that will help down the road too.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 4, 2015 11:02:06 GMT -5
So, Sonny Gray becomes the new Giancarlo Stanton. Every genius on the board will offer a ridiculous package and be pissed when we don't acquire him.
I've flip-flopped on Buchholz. If president's can do it, so can I:) My reasoning is that I though Porcello would rebound and give us what Clay does. I'm not so sure about that any longer. Porcello might be one of the guys who can't play in Boston.
We really only have one tradeable asset whom other teams covet that we might be able to deal. Who might be able to contribute right away. Blake Swihart. We've got to keep Mookie and Xander. They're untouchables. The rest of our vets have untouchable contracts. Many on board think Vazquez will make an ideal catcher. If you think he is, then Swihart becomes a tradeable asset. I want to see how Wieters is throwing at the end of the year. That might factor into my decision on Vazquez because they had the same injury. Blake would be an off-season move.
Anyone else think we're crazy to deal Tazawa? Our bullpen has been horrific lately. Koji can't pitch forever. All of the yutes we bring up have shiat the bed so far.
Just get rid of the vets to get more playing time for the young guys. Not going to get anything for them. But, dump Napoli and Victorino. Get Castillo back up here in August if he's playing better. Maybe play Pablo or Hanley at 1B a little to see how they handle it.
All in all, a boring trade deadline.
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Post by whoareyoukarimgarcia on Jul 4, 2015 12:07:06 GMT -5
The braves are reportedly looking for young catching www.mlbtraderumors.com/atlanta-braves. Not that I am looking to trade Blake necessarily but if we are going to trade for pitching that is cost controlled, we are going to have give something up. Hypothetically who in the Braves system would be worth Swihart and say JBJ? Alex wood is interesting, but I don't know a lot about they minor league system. Is Atlanta a possible good trading partner?
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tedf
Rookie
Posts: 79
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Post by tedf on Jul 4, 2015 12:15:39 GMT -5
We really only have one tradeable asset whom other teams covet that we might be able to deal. Who might be able to contribute right away. Blake Swihart. We've got to keep Mookie and Xander. They're untouchables. The rest of our vets have untouchable contracts. Many on board think Vazquez will make an ideal catcher. If you think he is, then Swihart becomes a tradeable asset. Even assuming his arm is sound, Vazquez reminds me more of Jose Molina than Yadier Molina. If the Red Sox trade Blake Swihart, it will be reminiscent of trading Bagwell because he was blocked by Cooper. Plenty of room to keep both Vazquez and Swihart on the roster. Margot fits your definition better than anybody else in the system, I would say. Betts has a lock on the CF/leadoff jobs, and Margot's defensive range is wasted elsewhere. The Red Sox can definitely make room for him, if he develops, but he might be more valuable to a team with a CF need.
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tedf
Rookie
Posts: 79
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Post by tedf on Jul 4, 2015 12:21:02 GMT -5
The braves are reportedly looking for young catching www.mlbtraderumors.com/atlanta-braves. Not that I am looking to trade Blake necessarily but if we are going to trade for pitching that is cost controlled, we are going to have give something up. Hypothetically who in the Braves system would be worth Swihart and say JBJ? Alex wood is interesting, but I don't know a lot about they minor league system. Is Atlanta a possible good trading partner? Not seeing anything there that would tempt me, either on the ML or ml rosters. Freeman would be interesting, of course, but that would be taking things in a very different direction.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jul 4, 2015 12:30:36 GMT -5
The braves are reportedly looking for young catching www.mlbtraderumors.com/atlanta-braves. Not that I am looking to trade Blake necessarily but if we are going to trade for pitching that is cost controlled, we are going to have give something up. Hypothetically who in the Braves system would be worth Swihart and say JBJ? Alex wood is interesting, but I don't know a lot about they minor league system. Is Atlanta a possible good trading partner? Not seeing anything there that would tempt me, either on the ML or ml rosters. Freeman would be interesting, of course, but that would be taking things in a very different direction. Shelby Miller would be the guy that makes the most sense to the Sox.
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