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2015 Red Sox Trade Deadline Strategy
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 4, 2015 12:37:16 GMT -5
The braves are reportedly looking for young catching www.mlbtraderumors.com/atlanta-braves. Not that I am looking to trade Blake necessarily but if we are going to trade for pitching that is cost controlled, we are going to have give something up. Hypothetically who in the Braves system would be worth Swihart and say JBJ? Alex wood is interesting, but I don't know a lot about they minor league system. Is Atlanta a possible good trading partner? Not really, at least for the Red Sox. Their farm system has definitely improved, mostly because they sold off so many major league pieces, but is still fairly shallow. Wisler is a close-to-the-majors starter, whereas Sims is a bit further away and Max Fried is out for the year. Rio Ruiz (AA-3B) has disappointed this year. I like Braxton Davidson (A-OF). They also have Folty, Banuelos and Perez in the majors. Assuming that the Braves aren't trading Wood, Teheran or Miller, you are probably looking at something like a Swihart for one of Folty/Banuelos/Perez, plus Davidson, plus a lotto ticket. Doesn't thrill me, frankly, and I cannot see the Red Sox making that trade.
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 4, 2015 13:01:52 GMT -5
Assuming that the Braves aren't trading Wood, Teheran or Miller, you are probably looking at something like a Swihart for one of Folty/Banuelos/Perez, plus Davidson, plus a lotto ticket. Doesn't thrill me, frankly, and I cannot see the Red Sox making that trade. I think if you assume that [other team] isn't trading [premium assets] then it's safe to also assume that the Red Sox aren't trading Swihart.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 4, 2015 13:34:01 GMT -5
Assuming that the Braves aren't trading Wood, Teheran or Miller, you are probably looking at something like a Swihart for one of Folty/Banuelos/Perez, plus Davidson, plus a lotto ticket. Doesn't thrill me, frankly, and I cannot see the Red Sox making that trade. I think if you assume that [other team] isn't trading [premium assets] then it's safe to also assume that the Red Sox aren't trading Swihart. I don't think BOS is trading Swihart under any circumstance. I was just trying to respond to the poster's question.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 4, 2015 15:01:32 GMT -5
I think if you assume that [other team] isn't trading [premium assets] then it's safe to also assume that the Red Sox aren't trading Swihart. I don't think BOS is trading Swihart under any circumstance. I was just trying to respond to the poster's question. How bout the Phils deal Hamels to NYY for a nice package. Then, flip Severino to us for Swihart?? Add Ruiz, if we toss someone in.
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Post by larrycook on Jul 4, 2015 16:45:28 GMT -5
I don't think BOS is trading Swihart under any circumstance. I was just trying to respond to the poster's question. How bout the Phils deal Hamels to NYY for a nice package. Then, flip Severino to us for Swihart?? Add Ruiz, if we toss someone in. Swihart should be untouchable, I think we need to look at some relief pitchers to replace Ross and Breslow. I know we have holes in the starting pitching rotation in porcello and masterson, but I doubt Farrell takes porcello out and we have Owens or johnson to replace masterson.
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Post by charliezink16 on Jul 4, 2015 20:42:21 GMT -5
I think if you assume that [other team] isn't trading [premium assets] then it's safe to also assume that the Red Sox aren't trading Swihart. I don't think BOS is trading Swihart under any circumstance. I was just trying to respond to the poster's question. Interesting that you say that. I personally would rather trade Swihart than Vazquez. Swihart can be the centerpiece of any big deal, and I'm fine with giving up offensive production at the C position when you have an absolute stud influencing every pitch of the game. If Swihart is untouchable to Boston, what do you think happens next year? Pure speculation at this point, but assuming Napoli is gone and Ortiz is back at DH in 2016, maybe the following is plausible: C: Vazquez (110), Swihart (50) 1B: Swihart (80), Hanley (60), Holt/Craig/Nava/etc. (20) LF: Hanley (90), JBJ/Castillo/Holt/etc. (70) This becomes irrelevant if Boston does what I want, trade for elite 1B (Goldschmidt, Freeman, etc.). But if that doesn't happen, I see no reason why Swihart couldn't develop into a plus defensive 1B. It's not ideal to move an above average C there for extended time, but I don't see how else we fit both him and Vaz on the roster. Ideally we trade Swihart in a megadeal for Goldy (I know, I know), and have Vazquez/Hanigan for the next 2 seasons, but hey what do I know. What I do know is that the Vaz/Swihart discussion will heat up on this board and become a focal point during the 2015-2016 offseaosn. Lots of ways to settle this debate.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 4, 2015 21:09:09 GMT -5
How bout the Phils deal Hamels to NYY for a nice package. Then, flip Severino to us for Swihart?? Add Ruiz, if we toss someone in. Swihart should be untouchable, I think we need to look at some relief pitchers to replace Ross and Breslow. I know we have holes in the starting pitching rotation in porcello and masterson, but I doubt Farrell takes porcello out and we have Owens or johnson to replace masterson. It doesn't appear the Sox have any confidence in JBJ. Could we deal him for a lefty reliever. Want something more than a LOOGY, not expecting Glen Perkins either. A happy medium.
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 4, 2015 21:18:05 GMT -5
Interesting that you say that. I personally would rather trade Swihart than Vazquez. Swihart can be the centerpiece of any big deal, and I'm fine with giving up offensive production at the C position when you have an absolute stud influencing every pitch of the game. Welcome to the club! (Our first club meeting took place here last year). Meh... even with good defense Swihart's ceiling is basically a league average first baseman. If, on the other hand, you're able to hit like a league average first baseman and play catcher ... But I guess it's possible as a one year stopgap.
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Post by larrycook on Jul 6, 2015 22:07:13 GMT -5
I really can not see bc trading for an established starter this July, but I could see hm pulling off another Andrew miller for a near ready top prospect type starting pitcher.
And to that end, you have to wonder if bc is not dangling tawaza to see what fringe contender team would part with.
For example: if Colorado was a contender, I would gladly part with tawaza and Bradley or Castillo for gray. Or
Whatever prospects Miami wants for kolek.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jul 7, 2015 5:42:36 GMT -5
Holt's value has just gone up a tiny bit, right? He could be a very Useful Piece for someone.
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Post by jmei on Jul 7, 2015 7:49:38 GMT -5
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Post by jdb on Jul 8, 2015 15:18:45 GMT -5
Well a few weeks back it looked like a sell thread but only 5 games back its debatable. I think tonight's game, the Yankee series and the west coast trip to LAA than Houston will decide that.
I don't think we should trade any top guys for rentals but if we could add a pen arm without given up a ton I'd be for it. I'd hope to see Johnson get some starts to see if he could take the Masterson/Kelly spot and I'd like to see Kelly out of the pen. Hopefully his stuff would play up and he could make a jump like Miller did for us.
Thinking out loud would you trade Napoli for LaRoche? He isn't having a great season but i think I'd trust him over Nap. With Chicago looking like a seller maybe they'd be okay getting away from next years commitment to him and let Napoli play this year out.
Also any starters out there that aren't rentals? Ross or Cashner?
Edit: looks like LaRoche is due $13 mill next year. I thought it was less. Doubt I'd do that.
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Post by jdb on Jul 11, 2015 9:41:15 GMT -5
Just when I thought maybe we buy a cost controlled piece or two Buch goes down. Clouds not only the deadline but the season and off season. I'll hold judgment until the Yankee series is over and the 7 games out west vs LAA and Houston but it's not looking good for the home team.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 11, 2015 9:45:12 GMT -5
Well, imagine how much worse it could be if Buchholz got hurt in August instead of now. It makes decisions much easier.
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Jul 11, 2015 11:04:20 GMT -5
If The Sox get swept they will likely be sellers. The Sox needed an ace before buchholz got hurt. Noway do we trade for another ace, and are a playoff team. We might trade for an ace to contend next year.
I would never trade a future all-star catcher for nothing less than an ace pitcher. Which is harder to find an all-star starting pitcher or catcher?
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Post by dridiot on Jul 12, 2015 16:09:04 GMT -5
If The Sox get swept they will likely be sellers. The Sox needed an ace before buchholz got hurt. Noway do we trade for another ace, and are a playoff team. We might trade for an ace to contend next year. I would never trade a future all-star catcher for nothing less than an ace pitcher. Which is harder to find an all-star starting pitcher or catcher? Well, we didn't get swept, but I think they should still be sellers. There's a chance at the postseason still but this is a really iffy team. It's thin depth-wise (the starting pitching can't withstand an injury, relief is very thin, 1B, 3B not even playing at replacement level) and I don't really have any hopes for a good postseason run anymore. There aren't really that many chips to sell anyway (possibly Koji -- I like this idea because I'm a little worried about his age next season but it seems like he's been solid this season, and Victorino seems to be hitting fairly well lately), but what I'd really want to see is players we don't expect to see next year (Napoli, Victorino) benched in favor of players we do expect to play (Castillo, when he gets healthy, maybe even JBJ). It would also mean we could keep Porcello in the rotation, and either try Kelly in the rotation again or in the bullpen, and see if they can fix whatever went wrong, without any pressure. In terms of return, probably looking mostly for prospects that could have a shot at the bullpen for next year, at least. Maybe they can bring Craig up and see if he can re-establish any value but he's hitting .260 in AAA so it doesn't seem likely. If they can get anyone to pay enough of his salary I'd take that deal. And, maybe in the offseason, a review of John Farrell?
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 13, 2015 9:40:58 GMT -5
I don't think it is a question of the Sox being buyers or sellers. It is a question of fixing problems with the team not just for this season, but for the future. Those problems primarily are with the pitching, but also with the outfield and with first base.
The Sox bullpen is second rate and needs to be rebuilt. The current bullpen cannot get the team to the postseason this year or in the future. The strategy of rotating replaceable arms in and out isn't working. A core of really good RPs must be assembled. Even the Yankee secondary RPs are better than what the Sox have.
The strategy of having the rotation composed of mid-range pitchers isn't working. Rodriguez looks like a number one or two. At least two more of similar quality are needed. It is time to write off Buchholz as one of them. He is one when he pitches, but even his biggest fans have to admit he can't be counted on.
The best prospects to fill Napoli's shoes are below AAA and are not yet proven. I can't see the team waiting for one. But they have to do something. Napoli has not given any evidence that he is going to recover and he is gone after this year. Either they make a big deal to get a first rate 1B, or they play Shaw, or they convert one of the other players to 1B.
The current OF, with De Aza's amazing performance, has improved substantially, but what is it going to be next year? If a big acquisition is to be made that may be something for the off-season. If the Sox do not move up very soon, and if they don't trade JBJ, then I think he should be brought back and given extensive playing time.
If they could be acquired, I would have the Sox trade some assets for two top starters, two top RPs, and a top 1B. Those deals would be expensive, but the team would be greatly improved not only for this year but for the next several years. However, I would not trade elite prospect assets for anyuthing less than elite players with several years of control ahead.
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Post by jmei on Jul 14, 2015 11:53:07 GMT -5
I don't think it is a question of the Sox being buyers or sellers. It is a question of fixing problems with the team not just for this season, but for the future. Those problems primarily are with the pitching, but also with the outfield and with first base. The Sox bullpen is second rate and needs to be rebuilt. The current bullpen cannot get the team to the postseason this year or in the future. The strategy of rotating replaceable arms in and out isn't working. A core of really good RPs must be assembled. Even the Yankee secondary RPs are better than what the Sox have. The strategy of having the rotation composed of mid-range pitchers isn't working. Rodriguez looks like a number one or two. At least two more of similar quality are needed. It is time to write off Buchholz as one of them. He is one when he pitches, but even his biggest fans have to admit he can't be counted on. The best prospects to fill Napoli's shoes are below AAA and are not yet proven. I can't see the team waiting for one. But they have to do something. Napoli has not given any evidence that he is going to recover and he is gone after this year. Either they make a big deal to get a first rate 1B, or they play Shaw, or they convert one of the other players to 1B. The current OF, with De Aza's amazing performance, has improved substantially, but what is it going to be next year? If a big acquisition is to be made that may be something for the off-season. If the Sox do not move up very soon, and if they don't trade JBJ, then I think he should be brought back and given extensive playing time. If they could be acquired, I would have the Sox trade some assets for two top starters, two top RPs, and a top 1B. Those deals would be expensive, but the team would be greatly improved not only for this year but for the next several years. However, I would not trade elite prospect assets for anyuthing less than elite players with several years of control ahead. I generally think the above is an overreaction to one season's struggles. I think you've identified the relevant flaws, but the solution to those flaws isn't necessarily to commit large amounts of cash/prospects to fill those holes with "top" options. Just signing or trading for the consensus best option on the market for each of their holes is (a) not really practicable considering resource constraints and (b) probably not a good idea both in the short term and (especially) in the long term. I'm also very skeptical that it's worth trying to fill their roster holes midseason (and pay inflated midseason trade prices to do so) rather than waiting for the offseason. I don't think their playoff odds are high enough or would increase enough that it's worth acquiring a bunch of big-name (or even medium-name; think Scott Kazimir) guys midseason.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 14, 2015 12:06:16 GMT -5
I'm also very skeptical that it's worth trying to fill their roster holes midseason (and pay inflated midseason trade prices to do so) rather than waiting for the offseason. I don't think their playoff odds are high enough or would increase enough that it's worth acquiring a bunch of big-name (or even medium-name; think Scott Kazimir) guys midseason. This. Why pay inflated prices now when you can pay market value in the offseason? If you can trade a Koji and/or Taz and/or Holt (ie, attractive trade pieces at the top of their value that likely do not fit into your future and/or are replaceable) to get these pieces now, go for it. Otherwise, why deplete your farm for a chance at the playoffs when you can retool in total in the offseason.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 15, 2015 9:58:22 GMT -5
I probably should have written it, but I meant my 7-13 piece to include an assumption that deals should not be made if the prices become too high. However, the Sox should be opportunistic and not be afraid to pay a high price if high value can be gained in return.
Not all deadline deals are overpays and sometimes players become available who might not be available later.
I would not trade for any player with little time left on his contract - certainly no one who will become a free agent this fall.
I was trying to describe a strategy that was neither buy or sell but some of both - and some maybe now and some maybe in the off season - designed to build a team that can contend for several years.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 15, 2015 13:29:15 GMT -5
I don't think BOS is trading Swihart under any circumstance. I was just trying to respond to the poster's question. Interesting that you say that. I personally would rather trade Swihart than Vazquez. Swihart can be the centerpiece of any big deal, and I'm fine with giving up offensive production at the C position when you have an absolute stud influencing every pitch of the game. If Swihart is untouchable to Boston, what do you think happens next year? Pure speculation at this point, but assuming Napoli is gone and Ortiz is back at DH in 2016, maybe the following is plausible: C: Vazquez (110), Swihart (50) 1B: Swihart (80), Hanley (60), Holt/Craig/Nava/etc. (20) LF: Hanley (90), JBJ/Castillo/Holt/etc. (70) This becomes irrelevant if Boston does what I want, trade for elite 1B (Goldschmidt, Freeman, etc.). But if that doesn't happen, I see no reason why Swihart couldn't develop into a plus defensive 1B. It's not ideal to move an above average C there for extended time, but I don't see how else we fit both him and Vaz on the roster. Ideally we trade Swihart in a megadeal for Goldy (I know, I know), and have Vazquez/Hanigan for the next 2 seasons, but hey what do I know. What I do know is that the Vaz/Swihart discussion will heat up on this board and become a focal point during the 2015-2016 offseaosn. Lots of ways to settle this debate. First we have to see how well Vasquez recovers before that discussion even starts.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 16, 2015 16:59:26 GMT -5
If San Diego is going to blow it up, I'd be targeting Ross and/or Myers. We have plenty of assets that would be great additions for them, although those two won't come cheap by any means.
They really need a CF badly, as well as a long term SS and 2B/3B.
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Post by rafael on Jul 16, 2015 20:07:47 GMT -5
If San Diego is going to blow it up, I'd be targeting Ross and/or Myers. We have plenty of assets that would be great additions for them, although those two won't come cheap by any means. They really need a CF badly, as well as a long term SS and 2B/3B. I don't think they are going to blow up, they should have a good roster next year if they trade just Upton, Kimbrel and Kennedy/Cashner. No need to trade either Ross or Myers. If they do make Ross available, I'd be all over him.
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Post by larrycook on Jul 16, 2015 21:11:53 GMT -5
If San Diego is going to blow it up, I'd be targeting Ross and/or Myers. We have plenty of assets that would be great additions for them, although those two won't come cheap by any means. They really need a CF badly, as well as a long term SS and 2B/3B. Bleacher report thinks shields could be on the trading block. If so we could send them sandavol and kelly for shields.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 17, 2015 7:02:01 GMT -5
If San Diego is going to blow it up, I'd be targeting Ross and/or Myers. We have plenty of assets that would be great additions for them, although those two won't come cheap by any means. They really need a CF badly, as well as a long term SS and 2B/3B. Bleacher report thinks shields could be on the trading block. If so we could send them sandavol and kelly for shields. I would do that simply for the fact that Shields would be easier to move than Sandoval, even if he's a horrible fit for Fenway. Sandoval isn't a key part of this club going forward and he's getting paid like he is. I highly doubt we'd move him though. Probably could use him another year at third and see if he can raise his value and bridge the gap to Moncada/Devers.
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