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Should the Red Sox sign Josh Hamilton?
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Post by jmei on Dec 7, 2012 11:49:07 GMT -5
I find it very unlikely that a Myers-for-Lester deal has been explicitly offered to the Red Sox. The Royals probably asked about Lester and Myers' name was brought up, but I doubt talks were more in-depth than that.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 7, 2012 11:55:16 GMT -5
From what I read, the Sox turned down Myers for Lester. Don't know if that's necessarily true - there's always false reports around, but if it is true, wow.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Dec 7, 2012 12:09:08 GMT -5
You know they can't appear as giving up on a .500 season so thats probably true. There is another possibility perhaps they want more than Myers.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 7, 2012 12:10:04 GMT -5
The best part about acquiring Wil Myers would be in five years, when he'd established himself as a quality major league player, people could get upset about the Red Sox not trading him for a top prospect.
I mean, I love Myers, but he's not a slam dunk. He strikes out in more than 1/4 of his at bats, and does show some trouble with the curveball. Meanwhile, they'd be trading Lester when his value is at its lowest. It was the first time in five years he'd had an ERA above 4.00. It's possible he's trending downward, but it's equally possible that it's a mediocre season in an otherwise very good career. Considering that the Red Sox really need pitching, Lester doesn't come at too much of a cost, Bradley might be ready to take RF next year, Bogaerts might end up in RF.... there are a lot of variables here which make this far less than a no-brainer.
I certainly don't think it's guaranteed that Myers is better than Lester in 2015.
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Post by pbgallag on Dec 7, 2012 12:53:51 GMT -5
Lester has been in steady decline for a few years now. Not just in his numbers, but in his stuff as well. This is a guy that once threw 96 mph, with a 12-6 curveball, and an elite cutter. None of those pitches have been seen in about 2 years.
Regarding Hamilton, it is starting to seem like 4/100 would get it done. Possibly even less. If this the case, the Red Sox should strongly consider him.
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Post by bluechip on Dec 7, 2012 12:56:06 GMT -5
The best part about acquiring Wil Myers would be in five years, when he'd established himself as a quality major league player, people could get upset about the Red Sox not trading him for a top prospect. I mean, I love Myers, but he's not a slam dunk. He strikes out in more than 1/4 of his at bats, and does show some trouble with the curveball. Meanwhile, they'd be trading Lester when his value is at its lowest. It was the first time in five years he'd had an ERA above 4.00. It's possible he's trending downward, but it's equally possible that it's a mediocre season in an otherwise very good career. Considering that the Red Sox really need pitching, Lester doesn't come at too much of a cost, Bradley might be ready to take RF next year, Bogaerts might end up in RF.... there are a lot of variables here which make this far less than a no-brainer. I certainly don't think it's guaranteed that Myers is better than Lester in 2015. While it is true that Lester may be better than Myers in 2015, for we cannot know. We do know that Myers will be earning the league minimum in 2014 (when Lester is making 13 million dollars, I believe). If Lester gets back to his form, he will be receiving a very large contract when he reaches free agency. The deal is certainly not one to be made without thinking, but it is a trade I make.
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Dec 7, 2012 13:10:23 GMT -5
I would sign him to a 1 year 30 mil deal or a 2 year 60 mil deal. If not Hamilton, then Bourn. I'd sign him on a 1 year deal and use Gomes off the bench and backup OF. Hamilton and Bourn are both huge upgrades. I would then trade several of our FA's to be during the July trade deadline. We need more almost ready prospects.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 7, 2012 13:14:06 GMT -5
And if Lester doesn't return to form or doesn't resign, they'll need to go out of the organization to get a front-line starting pitcher, who will cost just as much money, plus either prospects or a draft pick. Being cost controlled is very important, yes, but lets not overdo it. The goal isn't to win with the lowest payroll possible, the goal is to win.
My argument for not doing the deal is this - the Red Sox are better off if Lester returns to form as a solid #2/borderline #1 than they are with Wil Myers, even if Myers turns into an All-Star. The Red Sox can afford to pay Lester, replacing starting pitching is much harder than replacing a right fielder, and the Red Sox have in-house options for RF, both in the long and short term.
Of course, there's also the chance that Myers will play at a high level, and that Lester is falling apart physically and won't be able to return to form. If that happens, then not making the trade will look bad, because they'll need a front-end starter anyway. That's the risk of not doing the deal. I'm just not as ready to write off Lester as a lot of people here.
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Post by buffs4444 on Dec 7, 2012 15:18:20 GMT -5
Note to Josh: loyalty is nice, but blind loyalty where you drive down your market by telling people you're just going to shop their offer to your current employer, well, it may not be warranted in this case.
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Post by jioh on Dec 8, 2012 7:42:40 GMT -5
I have to keep reminding myself that trading Ellsbury and replacing him with with an FA who costs a pick like Hamilton or Swisher involves a net loss of two picks, one the pick we lose for the FA (admittedly only a 2nd rounder this year), and the sandwich pick you might get for Ellsbury.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Dec 8, 2012 10:47:55 GMT -5
More importantly they lose about a Million in the bonus pool which could cost 2-3 prospects depending how the Red Sox attack their bonus pool this year.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 9, 2012 23:54:59 GMT -5
The best part about acquiring Wil Myers would be in five years, when he'd established himself as a quality major league player, people could get upset about the Red Sox not trading him for a top prospect. I mean, I love Myers, but he's not a slam dunk. He strikes out in more than 1/4 of his at bats, and does show some trouble with the curveball. Meanwhile, they'd be trading Lester when his value is at its lowest. It was the first time in five years he'd had an ERA above 4.00. It's possible he's trending downward, but it's equally possible that it's a mediocre season in an otherwise very good career. Considering that the Red Sox really need pitching, Lester doesn't come at too much of a cost, Bradley might be ready to take RF next year, Bogaerts might end up in RF.... there are a lot of variables here which make this far less than a no-brainer. I certainly don't think it's guaranteed that Myers is better than Lester in 2015. But given where the Red Sox are - they're a rebuilding team or should be - not a reloading team. Myers should fit the Sox of the future more than Lester would have and at this point the odds are the Sox will get two years out of Lester and wind up with a draft pick. Meanwhile Bryce Brentz figures to be Victorino's successor and if you have doubts about Myers, I'm sure you have a lot more doubts about Brentz. The 25% strikeout figure doesn't stop me from thinking that Myers will be an excellent player. Hamilton whiffed in 25% of his ABs (more than that actually) - it didn't stop him from getting on base and a good clip and slugging pretty well. Whiffing in 25% of his ABs didn't stop Jim Thome from being an excellent player all of these years. The odds are Myers will be an excellent corner OF and middle of the order threat, the kind a rebuilding Sox team could have used to team with Bogaerts. Instead Tampa took the plunge and they'll reap the benefit of Kansas City's desperation.
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Post by kindasweaty on Dec 10, 2012 10:09:00 GMT -5
at this point the odds are the Sox will get two years out of Lester and wind up with a draft pick. Why would this be true? If he returns to form why would the Red Sox not pony up the money he's worth? He's not Ellsbury, has never shown any extreme desire to test the FA market. And if I'm Lester and I saw that the Red Sox refused to trade me even after my worst year why would I be unhappy with them?
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 10, 2012 11:54:10 GMT -5
I would have loved it if the Sox had pulled off the Myers' trade, but the Rays are a completely different "animal". I truly could not see them not doing this. They have to always worry about bringing in new talent. Talent that permits them to keep competing. This is a chancy choice for the Rays also, but one you have to applaud.
So Josh Hamilton?
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Post by bluechip on Dec 10, 2012 11:56:29 GMT -5
Note to Josh: loyalty is nice, but blind loyalty where you drive down your market by telling people you're just going to shop their offer to your current employer, well, it may not be warranted in this case. There are times when a team is just negotiating hard and times when teams do not want a current player. The Rangers really seem to not want Hamilton. I understand why Josh Hamilton wants Texas to match the Mariners's offer, but many player would have become angry with the Rangers and simply signed elsewhere.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 10, 2012 12:00:17 GMT -5
There are times when a team is just negotiating hard and times when teams do not want a current player. The Rangers really seem to not want Hamilton. I understand why Josh Hamilton wants Texas to match the Mariners's offer, but many player would have become angry with the Rangers and simply signed elsewhere. Eh, what do they know? They're only one of the smartest teams in baseball. Pay that man!
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