Trading Swihart: The Discussion Thread

The poll is being replaced tomorrow with a different kind of survey, which will have its own dedicated thread.  But this intro still applies, mostly, to the questions in that survey ... and is the place to discuss the issue.

This, I do believe, is DDo's biggest decision. It shapes the whole winter.

Like others on this board, I believe Blake Swihart will end up somewhere between a poor man's Buster Posey and ... Buster Posey. This poll is not about trading him just to trade him. It's about getting what we all feel he's worth.

So, imagine that this winter, the Sox have the opportunity to make Swihart the centerpiece of a fair trade for Chris Archer, Sonny Gray, Jose Fernandez, Matt Harvey, or Jacob deGrom* -- whichever one of those guys you think would be the best guy to trade for, given the likely price. By "fair," I mean the whole trade is judged by the average poster here to be reasonable and well-balanced.  And yes, of course the trade would likely involve some or even all of the other names we've talked about like Margot, Guerra, Miley, and Marrero.

(*I just don't think Chris Sale is a viable option, between his asking price, his left-handedness, his $12.2M AAV going forward, and his second-half struggles.  deGrom, in contrast, is here because he has 5 years of control compared to the 3 of Fernandez and Harvey. And yes, a trade with the Mets would require a third team, since they have D'Arnaud at catcher already. I think Billy Beane would turn around and trade Steven Vogt for more prospects as part of a rebuild.)

Would you do it?

Four notes:

_- Option one is not the same as "I want to defer the decision." It's saying you think the smartest thing is to have them both catch 80 games, or have Vazquez catch 120, and Swihart catch 40 and play 110 somewhere else (probably 3B, maybe 1B). If you pick this option, you should explain your plan below.

- Options one through three obviously render the state of Vazquez's elbow moot. The other options are all based on the idea that we should trade Swihart if Vazquez is OK to get the ace we need. The multiple options are designed to measure your risk-level comfort.

-- The "unless there's a problem with CV's elbow" option is of course the same as "As long as CV's elbow looks OK," which is to say, no problems or setbacks but not noticeably going well. (Although it should not affect your answer, right now, the reports on Vazquez's elbow seem good.)

-- If you pick the second or third options, you should provide one or more of the following rationales by posting in the thread.

Because right now, based on reasonable projections for both players, it sure looks like it makes more sense to keep Vazquez and trade Swihart. There are two or three reasons:

- Right now, CV appears to be by far the better player (6.5 WAR rookie season versus 1.7, both per 125 games) and the team is ready to contend right now;

- Just as importantly, Vazquez has a gap between his actual and trade value that Swihart doesn't have, for two further reasons: a good deal of his value is not fully recognized by the market (his pitch-framing ability), and because he was never a hugely-regarded prospect.

Now, there are many reasons that this logic might be wrong, too many to include in the poll even if they were mutually exclusive, which they aren't. So folks who don't buy the argument should just quote this, switch to BBCode mode, and edit out everything except the items in this list they believe are true!

-- I don't think we can contend until 201_, by which time Swihart will be the better player
-- I think Swihart will reach his peak (much) quicker than expected, and thus be better than Vazquez as soon as 201_
-- I think Swihart will hit even better than his projections
-- I think Swihart will become an elite pitch-framer himself (so far he's been good, not great)
-- I think Vazquez will hit (substantially) worse than his projections
-- I'm convinced that Vazquez's elbow will never recover
-- I think Vazquez, post-surgery, will lose a significant chunk of value off his throwing
-- I think the estimates of Vazquez's pitch-framing ability are (way) too high
-- I think that umpires will adapt to Vazquez's pitch-framing ability, largely negating it
-- I think that Vazquez's pitch-framing is real but will be properly evaluated by the market by next winter, so you'll get plenty for him
-- I expect to extend the guy I keep, and by the time you get to that many years, Swihart will have enough excess actual value to offset any trade value gap
-- I believe in keeping the better player, period, even if it means getting 7 cents on the dime for the excellent guy you trade
-- Other

This should be interesting! (Especially so if the keep-Swihart folks explain themselves. They should realize that they'll probably need multiple items from that list.)