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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 4, 2016 15:52:43 GMT -5
Leaders in bwar- Trout, Betts, Bryant, Altuve, Donaldson, Cano, Seager, Machado, and Dozier. He's not the only guy in league that can slug and play great D at premium position. Do I think Fenway would inflate his numbers? Nope, not compared to Coors field. As to Pedroia, last year his OPS was .856 at home and.793 on road. He hit 7 HR at home and 8 HR on the road. Players normally hit better at home, it's there comfort zone. But when a players OPS is 200 points higher for his career at home compared to road that's a red flag. Sure what Telson said about some of the road parks is true, he does play a decent amount of games in pitcher parks. That alone doesn't explain 200 points on his OPS though. So when a Sox player hits better at home, it's normal and fine. When Nolan hits better at home and then hits worse against some of the most pitcher friendly parks in the the game, it's a red flag? You realize that Fenway is one of the most hitter friendly parks because of the least amount of foul territory in the majors and there's a wall 300 feet away from right handed hitters, right? Sure Fenway will take some homeruns away, but it won't take away from his extra base totals unless he's hitting hard singles off the monster every time out. Which is why I think both Trout and Arenado would both be 30 homerun plus bats at Fenway. You're post is filled with double standards and it's really not worth arguing anymore. You don't value Arenado like I think you should be. That's your opinion versus mine. He isn't just a "really good player," he's a franchise player you can build around for the next 10 years if you wanted to imo. Haha you leave out the whole part where I showed you the HR totals for Ortiz, Betts and Pedroia on the road and at Fenway. I wouldn't Question his numbers if they were like Pedroia, .050 lower OPS on road compared to home, but it's 200 points lower for his career, not just one season. Again that's the difference from Ortiz to Pedroia. I have no problem saying he would hit 30 HR as a Red Sox, but you said Fenway would inflate his stats, hence you said he would hit more that 41 HR, which is crazy if he's not playing in Coors. His HR split is 26 HR at home and 15 on road, that's huge. Yes he plays in some pitcher friendly parks on the road, but what is that like 20 games a year? It's not like all his road games are played in Petco. Also if I'm not mistaken they brought in walls at Petco, it's not the pitchers park it was 10 years ago.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 4, 2016 15:56:23 GMT -5
Fenway naturally takes away homeruns. The wall is 38 feet high. It's the way it is. I imagine Nolan's extra base totals would be about the same versus if he was playing in Coors, maybe even more extra base hits because the wall is so close. That's the difference.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 4, 2016 16:01:03 GMT -5
Altuve, Bryant, Cano, and Dozier are no where on the same planet in terms of Arenado defensively. Do you know why they have higher war totals? It's because bwar is using OPS+ if I'm not mistaken. They are discounting his stats because of Coors Field. OPS+ takes the parks you play in, into account and adjusts the numbers accordingly. That way you can compare all players equally. If he put up those numbers as a Red Sox with his D he would have been a top 5 player in war, but Baseball-Reference is saying he only put up those numbers because of Coors field. You really need to understand the modern day stats. We no longer just look at raw stats without context, which is exactly what you are doing! Go to Baseball-Reference and fangraphs, you can get all the information you want to compare players!
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 4, 2016 16:06:09 GMT -5
Fenway naturally takes away homeruns. The wall is 38 feet high. It's the way it is. I imagine Nolan's extra base totals would be about the same versus if he was playing in Coors, maybe even more extra base hits because the wall is so close. That's the difference. Maybe, Fenway is a small field, not a huge amount of room for doubles to the monster. Also a ton of balls that are doubles in other parks are long singles when hit off the green monster. Fenway is not even close to Coors field. Also what happend to Fenway increases his HRs? Now it will increase doubles, which is just in no way a fact!
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jimed14
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 4, 2016 16:24:33 GMT -5
All WAR is park adjusted.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 4, 2016 16:31:52 GMT -5
Fenway naturally takes away homeruns. The wall is 38 feet high. It's the way it is. I imagine Nolan's extra base totals would be about the same versus if he was playing in Coors, maybe even more extra base hits because the wall is so close. That's the difference. Maybe, Fenway is a small field, not a huge amount of room for doubles to the monster. Also a ton of balls that are doubles in other parks are long singles when hit off the green monster. Fenway is not even close to Coors field. Also what happend to Fenway increases his HRs? Now it will increase doubles, which is just in no way a fact! I never said he would increase his homerun totals. I said he was a franchise player, which he is. He isn't the "very good player" you perceived him to be. He's a franchise player. Period.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 4, 2016 16:36:11 GMT -5
Altuve, Bryant, Cano, and Dozier are no where on the same planet in terms of Arenado defensively. If he put up those numbers as a Red Sox with his D he would have been a top 5 player in war, I really hope the Sox trade for Arenado and he puts 40 homeruns in Fenway. That would be hilarious. Thanks for basically agreeing with me though.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 4, 2016 16:36:32 GMT -5
Ok I looked up park factors, best hitter parks. For Colorado's division, there parks are ranked 1, 2, 13(Petco) and 14th. They don't list Dodger stadium for some reason. Red Sox division is 4, 6, 11, 22 and 27. Goes to show Petco is no longer the pitcher park it used to be.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 4, 2016 16:39:46 GMT -5
Maybe, Fenway is a small field, not a huge amount of room for doubles to the monster. Also a ton of balls that are doubles in other parks are long singles when hit off the green monster. Fenway is not even close to Coors field. Also what happend to Fenway increases his HRs? Now it will increase doubles, which is just in no way a fact! I never said he would increase his homerun totals. I said he was a franchise player, which he is. He isn't the "very good player" you perceived him to be. He's a franchise player. Period. You said his numbers would inflate and they wouldn't. He would have lower average and HRs.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 4, 2016 16:41:59 GMT -5
If he put up those numbers as a Red Sox with his D he would have been a top 5 player in war, I really hope the Sox trade for Arenado and he puts 40 homeruns in Fenway. That would be hilarious. Thanks for basically agreeing with me though. In no way did I agree with you, I said if he did, not that he would. Wow, you like to twist things!!
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 4, 2016 16:48:00 GMT -5
I never said he would increase his homerun totals. I said he was a franchise player, which he is. He isn't the "very good player" you perceived him to be. He's a franchise player. Period. You said his numbers would inflate and they wouldn't. He would have lower average and HRs. Like I said, there's no point in arguing with you because your perceived opinion of the player is way different from mine and really yours is far off imo. I'm not going to argue about Arenado. It's pointless but he is worth the farm system imo.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 4, 2016 16:55:44 GMT -5
Ok, maybe some day you'll look at more than just raw numbers!
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Post by telson13 on Nov 4, 2016 17:16:44 GMT -5
To be fair, he does have to hit in Petco, Pac Bell, and Chavez Ravine in a substantial number of away games. So his away totals may be excessively *deflated*. But I'd still be very concerned that Arenado's numbers outside of Coors would be much more pedestrian. With his defense and an .900 OPS (guesstimate in the AL), he'd be a terrific addition, but not worth the whole future for three years. That's why you extend him. Or don't trade for him, and use that money to extend the players they already have. If you want to guarantee he stays, you may have to grossly overpay early on. Then you run the risk of him not being worth the contract before it even begins. It's also likely to be a 7+/- year deal, at $25-30M per year. No thanks. I'll take my chances on one of the many extremely talented players you're advocating trading away coming through with similar performance, for a fraction of the cost.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 4, 2016 17:20:42 GMT -5
Fenway naturally takes away homeruns. The wall is 38 feet high. It's the way it is. I imagine Nolan's extra base totals would be about the same versus if he was playing in Coors, maybe even more extra base hits because the wall is so close. That's the difference. Actually, in Fenway HR often turn into singles, due to velocity/launch angle. The wall tends to make 2b out of weak flies, since the hang time is greater and the drop angle is more acute (wall-scrapers fall much deeper in the OF than ricochet line drives).
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Post by telson13 on Nov 4, 2016 17:31:00 GMT -5
If he put up those numbers as a Red Sox with his D he would have been a top 5 player in war, I really hope the Sox trade for Arenado and he puts 40 homeruns in Fenway. That would be hilarious. Thanks for basically agreeing with me though. He's not agreeing with you. Arenado's not a top-5 player because Coors so greatly inflates his offensive stats that when they're normalized (such as in calculating WAR), he drops way down. The point is that he's not at all likely to be the same offensive player in Fenway as in Coors. His offense would take a significant, if not substantial, hit. One caveat that I'll give you is that while his power numbers would likely suffer, his BA might actually be slightly better due to wall-scraper 2b instead of outs. He's also only 24, meaning his historical prime is still 2-3 years away. So his power may still improve. Either way, the Sox are a playoff team without him, and I'd much prefer that they keep their talent depth rather than trade the entire future for one player. If I recall, you were advocating doing the same for Fernandez.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 4, 2016 19:42:19 GMT -5
I really hope the Sox trade for Arenado and he puts 40 homeruns in Fenway. That would be hilarious. Thanks for basically agreeing with me though. He's not agreeing with you. Arenado's not a top-5 player because Coors so greatly inflates his offensive stats that when they're normalized (such as in calculating WAR), he drops way down. The point is that he's not at all likely to be the same offensive player in Fenway as in Coors. His offense would take a significant, if not substantial, hit. One caveat that I'll give you is that while his power numbers would likely suffer, his BA might actually be slightly better due to wall-scraper 2b instead of outs. He's also only 24, meaning his historical prime is still 2-3 years away. So his power may still improve. Either way, the Sox are a playoff team without him, and I'd much prefer that they keep their talent depth rather than trade the entire future for one player. If I recall, you were advocating doing the same for Fernandez. I just don't believe you don't want to trade for franchise players. Of course I would of wanted Fernandez. He was a hall of fame type talent. His power has already improved. He went from hitting 15 homeruns in Coors to 40 homeruns in Coors. That wasn't just Coors either. Trading for franchise type of talent should always be considered and traded for. Beckett worked out great, even without having Hanley's best years. Trading for super star talent in their primes is always less risky than developing from within imo.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 4, 2016 19:43:27 GMT -5
Fenway naturally takes away homeruns. The wall is 38 feet high. It's the way it is. I imagine Nolan's extra base totals would be about the same versus if he was playing in Coors, maybe even more extra base hits because the wall is so close. That's the difference. Actually, in Fenway HR often turn into singles, due to velocity/launch angle. The wall tends to make 2b out of weak flies, since the hang time is greater and the drop angle is more acute (wall-scrapers fall much deeper in the OF than ricochet line drives). So you basically agreed with my first sentence?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 4, 2016 19:49:20 GMT -5
That's why you extend him. Or don't trade for him, and use that money to extend the players they already have. If you want to guarantee he stays, you may have to grossly overpay early on. Then you run the risk of him not being worth the contract before it even begins. It's also likely to be a 7+/- year deal, at $25-30M per year. No thanks. I'll take my chances on one of the many extremely talented players you're advocating trading away coming through with similar performance, for a fraction of the cost. He's 25 with no prior injury risk, which was a major deal breaker for you with Fernandez. I don't get why you wouldn't want Arenado. You're taking more of a chance that most of those players don't turn into half of what Nolan is and you end up overpaying in other ways (free agency). I mean aren't you the one who's advocating extending Mookie but now would be against extending a guy like Arenado because the Sox have to overpay? Edit- A 7 year deal would end at his age 32 season. The perfect time to get out of a deal. I don't see any risk.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 4, 2016 20:12:55 GMT -5
I would normally be on board with developing from within too but Arenado and even Fernandez are really the kind of pieces you want to build around, not be afraid to pay or trade for.
I would say the same about Paul Goldshmidt in Arizona but he's a little older and I wouldn't trade a whole system for a older player like that.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 4, 2016 21:03:52 GMT -5
We would all love Nolan Arenado, he would certainly help our team. We just don't want to massively overpay for a player thst his team doesn't want to trade. We also don't really need him, we already have elite bats.
The downside is very simple, the elite prospects we trade reach their potential and 2-3 years from now Moncada is an elite player just like Arenado and Kopech is a front of the rotation starter. Plus whatever other players you have to give up, because you will have to massively overpay to get him. Also we would risk losing our current core because we don't have the money to resign them and we traded the young elite guys making peanuts.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 4, 2016 22:16:14 GMT -5
We would all love Nolan Arenado, he would certainly help our team. We just don't want to massively overpay for a player thst his team doesn't want to trade. We also don't really need him, we already have elite bats. The downside is very simple, the elite prospects we trade reach their potential and 2-3 years from now Moncada is an elite player just like Arenado and Kopech is a front of the rotation starter. Plus whatever other players you have to give up, because you will have to massively overpay to get him. Also we would risk losing our current core because we don't have the money to resign them and we traded the young elite guys making peanuts. Weren't you the one saying that third base is a major question mark heading into 2016? By the way, you would be right in saying this too. Arenado would solve this issue for 10 years. Edit- What if Moncada never reaches his full potential?
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Post by telson13 on Nov 4, 2016 22:17:41 GMT -5
Actually, in Fenway HR often turn into singles, due to velocity/launch angle. The wall tends to make 2b out of weak flies, since the hang time is greater and the drop angle is more acute (wall-scrapers fall much deeper in the OF than ricochet line drives). So you basically agreed with my first sentence? Of course. I don't think that's new information. But you'd have to look at his granular batted-ball stats to definitively show that he would have similar or more XBH. And even if the number stayed the same, fewer HR and similarly more 2b means lower SLG. Regardless, park factors suggest his offense would take a hit. Even if it didn't, your opinion re: trading for franchise players is just that: an opinion. For example, by keeping the core the Sox have now, they've had three above-average players among Betts, JBJ, and Bogaerts. One (Betts) is better than Arenado. And the other two are excellent players. You're stuck in black-and-white: I'm not saying trading for Arenado is a bad idea. It's fine if the price is right. Your price is ludicrous. I wouldn't give up that package for Arenado.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 4, 2016 22:19:37 GMT -5
We would all love Nolan Arenado, he would certainly help our team. We just don't want to massively overpay for a player thst his team doesn't want to trade. We also don't really need him, we already have elite bats. The downside is very simple, the elite prospects we trade reach their potential and 2-3 years from now Moncada is an elite player just like Arenado and Kopech is a front of the rotation starter. Plus whatever other players you have to give up, because you will have to massively overpay to get him. Also we would risk losing our current core because we don't have the money to resign them and we traded the young elite guys making peanuts. Weren't you the one saying that third base is a major question mark heading into 2016? By the way, you would be right in saying this too. Arenado would solve this issue for 10 years. At the cost of the farm system, creating a massive talent deficit in the coming years and severely restricted salary mobility. Fixing one hole for several years by creating several more is poor strategy.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 4, 2016 22:24:33 GMT -5
Weren't you the one saying that third base is a major question mark heading into 2016? By the way, you would be right in saying this too. Arenado would solve this issue for 10 years. At the cost of the farm system, creating a massive talent deficit in the coming years and severely restricted salary mobility. Fixing one hole for several years by creating several more is poor strategy. I don't see having Mookie and Nolan in the same lineup and see it as a hole. I'm sorry. That's a team in contention for a ton of years.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 4, 2016 22:26:20 GMT -5
Or don't trade for him, and use that money to extend the players they already have. If you want to guarantee he stays, you may have to grossly overpay early on. Then you run the risk of him not being worth the contract before it even begins. It's also likely to be a 7+/- year deal, at $25-30M per year. No thanks. I'll take my chances on one of the many extremely talented players you're advocating trading away coming through with similar performance, for a fraction of the cost. He's 25 with no prior injury risk, which was a major deal breaker for you with Fernandez. I don't get why you wouldn't want Arenado. You're taking more of a chance that most of those players don't turn into half of what Nolan is and you end up overpaying in other ways (free agency). I mean aren't you the one who's advocating extending Mookie but now would be against extending a guy like Arenado because the Sox have to overpay? Edit- A 7 year deal would end at his age 32 season. The perfect time to get out of a deal. I don't see any risk. You get three years of Arenado on the cheap. And then his contract is going to be FA-value. You keep repeating that we "don't want" him. No: we don't think mortgaging the system for one player is at all wise, especially when that player will cost market value on a long contract in 3 years. They don't NEED the offense. What they do NEED is young, homegrown low-cost talent that makes getting guys like Arenado, or Otani, or whoever, possible via FA, or in trade when the high-end talent they give up is reasonably redundant. Theo Epstein argued vehemently against what you're advocating, and his approach seems pretty viable.
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