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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Oct 1, 2015 7:43:12 GMT -5
OK, so here is a scenario that is unlikely, but not inconceivable. What happens?
The Yankees now have 72 losses. They are dormie for the playoffs, because they are currently competing with 3 other teams for two spots: Minnesota, Houston, and LAA. Minnesota already has 76 losses, and LAA finishes with 4 games with Texas, who has 72 losses. If LAA sweeps, Texas ends with 76 losses; any other result and LAA has at least 76 losses. So one win, anytime, anywhere, for the Yankees guarantees they are in the playoffs.
BUT .....
Suppose the Yankees lose out, to finish with 76 losses. Houston takes two of 3 from Arizona to finish with 76 losses. LAA wins either 3 or all 4 from Texas to finish, meaning that one of them has 76 losses, the other 75 to win the division. And just fer schizzles, say Minnesota sweeps an unmotivated KC over the weekend to finish with 76 losses.
NOW WHAT?
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Post by kman22 on Oct 1, 2015 8:26:02 GMT -5
Chaos?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 1, 2015 9:51:44 GMT -5
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Oct 1, 2015 10:53:12 GMT -5
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 1, 2015 14:27:16 GMT -5
There's a scenario that's maybe even crazier, where the Astros win out and the Angels win three or sweep vs. the Rangers, leaving the Astros tied with the Rangers or Angels for the division, which means you have their game to decide between division champ and first WC simultaneously with a three-game playoff between the Yankees, Twins, and the Angels or Rangers for the second WC.
It'll all be much clearer after tonight, most likely, when I plan to run down everything we're watching for over the weekend. Besides this crazy scramble for three of the five AL spots, home field advantage in the AL and home field in the Mets / Dodgers NLCS are very much up in the air. And the Cubs still have a shot to catch the Pirates for home field advantage in their WC game (they have the tiebreaker).
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 1, 2015 14:53:52 GMT -5
Playoff odds (BP, FG)
NYY: 99.7, 99.6
Tex: 98.5, 97.3
Htn: 66.9, 67.9
LAA: 28.1, 31.2
Min: 6.7, 3.9
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 2, 2015 0:25:30 GMT -5
First, the biggest thing to keep in mind is that TBS will have the irresistible NLDS Dodgers / Mets and Cardinals / Cubs or Pirates matchups, while the painfully inferior Fox coverage will be of the less interesting ALDS (probably Blue Jays / X, Royals / Rangers).
So, as of tonight, the Rangers have clinched a playoff spot and have a magic number of 1 for the division. If they lose their last three while Houston wins theirs (roughly 1 in 64 chance), they'll host Houston in a game to decide who's the division champ and who's the second wild card (first WC if the Yankees get swept, as both teams have the season edge on the Yankees).
The Angels and Twins are a game behind the Astros for the second wild card. In the case of a 2 team tie requiring a play-in game (roughly a 26% chance), the Astros would host the Angels, the Angels would host the Twins (just a 2.5% chance of that), while the Twins would host the Astros. A three-way tie (roughly a 7 - 8% chance) would probably have the Angels host the Astros, with the winner hosting the Twins, although the Angels could choose to have the Astros host the Twins and then play one game on the road against the winner.
The Yankees have a MN of 1 to clinch home field in the AL WC game.
The Pirates have a MN of 2 to clinch home field in the NL WC game.
The Mets have a MN of 3 to clinch home field in the NLDS.
The Blue Jays have a MN of 3 to clinch home field throughout the playoffs.
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Post by klostrophobic on Oct 2, 2015 1:24:31 GMT -5
What about five-team tiebreaker scenarios? Would this not necessitate a triple-header of some sort where team A is given a 'bye' while team 'B' and 'C' play and 'D' and 'E' play. Then A plays winner of D,E and winner of that plays winner of B,C. Or something. Or play on two nights and delay the start of the divisional series.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 2, 2015 22:54:37 GMT -5
Assuming the Astros and Dodgers do not blow their respective 99.1% and 98.1% win probabilities ...
The Rangers still have a magic number of 1 for the division. If they lose their last two while Houston wins theirs (roughly a 1 in 16 chance), they'll host Houston in a game to decide who's the division champ and who's the second wild card (first WC if the Yankees get swept, as both teams have the season edge on the Yankees).
The Angels and Twins are 1 and 2 games respectively behind the Astros for the second wild card. There's a roughly 1 in 16 chance that the Angels win it outright, and a 1 in 4 chance that Astros and Angels tie, with the Astros hosting the Angels in a play-in. There's a roughly 1 in 16 chance of a three-way tie, which would probably have the Angels host the Astros, with the winner hosting the Twins, although the Angels could choose to have the Astros host the Twins and then play one game on the road against the winner.
With their rainout, the Yankees still have a MN of 1 to clinch home field in the AL WC game.
With their 12-inning walk-off victory, the Pirates reduced their MN to clinch home field in the NL WC game to 1. The Cubs have a roughly 1 in 16 chance at it.
The Blue Jays reduced their MN to clinch home field throughout the playoffs to 2.
With the Mets rainout and Dodgers win, each team has a MN of 3 to clinch home field in the NLDS (Mets have the tiebreaker).
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Oct 3, 2015 22:43:23 GMT -5
Magic number of ONE on Sunday for the following teams:
TEX (DIV)
HOU (wildcard)
NYY (host wildcard)
KC (#1 seed)
PITT (host wildcard)
TEX would host the Monday tiebreaker game vs HOUS.
HOUS would host the Monday tiebreaker game vs LAA.
if:
NYY 87-75
TEX 87-75
HOU 87-75,
then NYY will be the visitor on TUES in wildcard (vs. Monday loser).
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 3, 2015 23:00:20 GMT -5
OK, we're on. Thanks to the Ranger's incredible 9th-inning collapse, the odds of some sort of play-in game on Monday are now roughly 50%.
If the Rangers beat the Angels tomorrow, the Rangers are division champs and the Astros are a wild card. If they win and the Yankees lose, they host the WC game; otherwise the Yankees do.
However, if the Angels beat the Rangers again, there will be a tie.
If Houston wins, they'll go to Texas for a play-in game, with the loser hosting the WC game if the Yankees lose and going to NY if the Yankees win.
If Houston loses, they'll host the Angels for a play-in game for a WC berth. The Yankees host that game unless they lose and Houston is the other team.
(So the Astros have clinched at least a play-in game.)
The Dodgers clinched home field in their hopefully epic NLDS, thanks to winning 4 of 5 while the Mets, who had gone 37-17 since just before the trade deadline, lost 5 straight.
The Pirates have home field in their WC game unless they lose and the Cubs win.
The Royals have home field throughout the playoffs unless they lose and the Blue Jays win, thanks to winning 4 straight while the Blue Jays, who had gone 42-15 since just before the deadline, lost 3 of 4.
All 7 meaningful games start at either 3:05 or 3:10 PM; the Rangers / Angels are on TBS.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Oct 4, 2015 6:26:12 GMT -5
Angels are basically facing 3 must win "elimination" games.
Sunday Monday and Tuesday.
As they must win all 3, no logic is switching Richards to pitch Sunday on short rest.
No logic. NONE.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 4, 2015 10:44:43 GMT -5
Angels are basically facing 3 must win "elimination" games. Sunday Monday and Tuesday. As they must win all 3, no logic is switching Richards to pitch Sunday on short rest. No logic. NONE. Good call. And shades of starting Pete Schourek and then Pedro. The CHB will go to his grave not understanding why that was absolutely correct. The guy that they're skipping over and who will go presumably on Monday, Nick Tropeano, has been good -- 90 xFIP-, 67 FIP-, 100 ERA-, and had a 6.2 3 1 1 1 11 line in his last start. Richard has 94, 99, and 95, and has never pitched on 3 days rest. Figuring that one of them had to pitch the WC game no matter what happened, flipping them was amazingly was senseless even before the play-in game became their only path. Tuesday's starter, Andrew Heaney, has been 109, 96, 92. But include last year, and his career ERA- is just 4 points less than his xFIP-, so it looks like he's been more lucky (especially with HR/FB) than good. I'm torn here between rooting for the excitement of a Monday game, and, OTOH, rooting for the possibility of the Yankees losing home field advantage, and against the team with bad managing (always my tiebreaker in the post-season) ... and for more free time on Monday! I have movies to see Monday through Wednesday night and will already be watching both WC games hours after they happen. |
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