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The Castillo in 2016 Poll
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Post by jrffam05 on Oct 12, 2015 15:13:33 GMT -5
This is a joke, right? You honestly think the Sox should send Rodriguez off to the Yankees to get Miller back? That was a huge net positive, so let me thank him for you. Let's think about this one for a moment. The Red Sox could have BOTH Rodriguez AND Miller if they'd matched the offer the Yanks made. Faced with two offers of 4 years / $36 million, who do you think Miller would be playing for right now? But, no. Ben thought Breslow could fill the role. I read somewhere recently that the Red Sox made a serious push to sign Miller. I recall they offered a 3 year deal on par or better than the Yankees aav, but the 4th year was the sticking point. It's not unreasonable to balk at a 4 year deal for a reliever. Anyway, the trade shouldn't matter in free agency, unless you consider the QO lowering his value.
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Post by congusgambler33 on Oct 12, 2015 17:36:52 GMT -5
I chose the medium leash because he has provided very solid leftfield defense and has a strong arm. i am not in love with his hitting tools yet. He has no discipline and is a problem on the basepaths. Most of his hits are bouncers up the middle and I am not seeing him driving the ball much. H ran into a few homers, but most times he is taking a long swing at outside pitches with little success or curve balls down low that he bounces out on. Even with all that I am willing ti see if some of this can be corrected with some instruction in spring training. If he hasn't improved come May. I would seriously consider moving him. I have to take into account that he hadn't played baseball in a year and a half previously.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 12, 2015 19:10:12 GMT -5
I see no reason to believe he will drastically change his batted ball profile this late into his career.
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wcp3
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Post by wcp3 on Oct 12, 2015 22:10:54 GMT -5
Not a huge Castillo fan, but lol at the people who think he's a finished product.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 13, 2015 3:45:44 GMT -5
If he wasn't being paid so much there would be no need for a poll. Sox are stuck with him. Have to root for him to perform. His contract has essentially nothing to do with it. If he were paying the Sox to play, you'd still have to decide whether he's currently good enough to start, whether he might get better, and so on. He's not penciled in as the starting LF because we're "stuck with him." He's penciled in because he projects to be OK, may be even better than that, and seems to be the best current option.
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Post by justinp123 on Oct 13, 2015 8:00:12 GMT -5
I think he's plenty good enough to play left field. I don't get why some people are so quick to just want to trade him. Who would we even be able to get for him anyways? Plus if we do trade him, who are we going to put int he outfield? I honestly think we should hang onto him.
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Post by jmei on Oct 13, 2015 9:01:03 GMT -5
Not a huge Castillo fan, but lol at the people who think he's a finished product. I mean, he'll be 29 next year, so there's unlikely to be a ton of upside left there.
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Post by justinp123 on Oct 13, 2015 9:06:15 GMT -5
i think we should give him a full season of starting in the outfield before we completely give up on him.
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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 13, 2015 9:11:55 GMT -5
Not a huge Castillo fan, but lol at the people who think he's a finished product. Do you mean finished as in "polished product", or finished as in "all washed up"?
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 13, 2015 9:11:52 GMT -5
Not a huge Castillo fan, but lol at the people who think he's a finished product. I mean, he'll be 29 next year, so there's unlikely to be a ton of upside left there. That's true, but a) he also hasn't really had enough plate appearances to say definitively what his current talent level is (even if he isn't likely to improve from whatever that level is) and b) he's been worth 2.9 bWAR/2.4 fWAR per 600 PA. So even if he is roughly as good as he has shown, even a marginal upgrade from his 50th percentile projection is likely to be expensive or come with higher risk.
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Post by jmei on Oct 13, 2015 9:29:28 GMT -5
I mean, he'll be 29 next year, so there's unlikely to be a ton of upside left there. That's true, but a) he also hasn't really had enough plate appearances to say definitively what his current talent level is (even if he isn't likely to improve from whatever that level is) and b) he's been worth 2.9 bWAR/2.4 fWAR per 600 PA. So even if he is roughly as good as he has shown, even a marginal upgrade from his 50th percentile projection is likely to be expensive or come with higher risk. Almost all of his value to date has come from his defense (+20 UZR/150, +29 DRS/year). I can buy that he's an above-average defender, and maybe even a plus one, but he's not one of the five or so best defensive outfielders in the league. My personal 50th percentile projection for him going forward is something like a 90 wRC+ hitter (something like .260/.300/.400) with +5 defense in CF and big platoon splits. That's still a pretty good player (something around two wins over the course of 600 PAs), but one you're not afraid to upgrade on or lightly/moderately platoon (think Chris Denorfia or Chris Young).
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wcp3
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Post by wcp3 on Oct 13, 2015 9:49:59 GMT -5
Not a huge Castillo fan, but lol at the people who think he's a finished product. I mean, he'll be 29 next year, so there's unlikely to be a ton of upside left there. He has 329 MLB plate appearances, so I'd think there's room for improvement. I didn't say anything about untapped potential. But he could probably improve on the skills he possesses with consistent major league ABs.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 13, 2015 10:00:19 GMT -5
If you platoon him lightly or manage his off-days well, though, he's probably closer to a 95-105 wRC+ player though, right? If he's someone who would be worth something like 2.2 WAR over 600 PA but 1.8 over 450 (so a player who is clearly above replacement level and a tick above average) then he's probably worth holding onto unless a replacement is readily available. So what I'm trying to say is that you have to be open to upgrading the position (as with any position), but you don't go looking to deal him without a replacement lined up. And of course all of the addenda apply - if someone loves him and has a glowing report on him and offers significant value for him, sure, go for it.
Ideally I think I'd go for an outfield alignment of the current trio, giving Betts about 600-650 PA, Bradley 500, Castillo 450, with a worse defensive take n' rake type who complements the latter two.
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Post by jmei on Oct 13, 2015 10:44:23 GMT -5
If you platoon him lightly or manage his off-days well, though, he's probably closer to a 95-105 wRC+ player though, right? If he's someone who would be worth something like 2.2 WAR over 600 PA but 1.8 over 450 (so a player who is clearly above replacement level and a tick above average) then he's probably worth holding onto unless a replacement is readily available. So what I'm trying to say is that you have to be open to upgrading the position (as with any position), but you don't go looking to deal him without a replacement lined up. And of course all of the addenda apply - if someone loves him and has a glowing report on him and offers significant value for him, sure, go for it. Ideally I think I'd go for an outfield alignment of the current trio, giving Betts about 600-650 PA, Bradley 500, Castillo 450, with a worse defensive take n' rake type who complements the latter two. Yeah, I agree with most of that. I do think that being "open to upgrading the position" means actively sniffing around free agents and trade opportunities and seeing if you can add someone for good value, though, whether that's a fourth outfielder type (think De Aza or Nori Aoki) or an outright replacement.
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Post by slam761 on Oct 13, 2015 13:44:50 GMT -5
This is the major DDo decision that's gotten the least discussion here. The three "leash" choices are a combination of patience and slack given, before you decide (if you do) that he's not good enough to start, and needs to either be traded or relegated to a platoon OF role. "A long leash" means that you expect to wait until the trade deadline before making the decision, and are giving him a lot of leeway to struggle before that. (Obviously, if he's just plain bad for the first three months or awful for the first two, you might make a move sooner, i.e., relegating him to a platoon role. See the final note.) The "medium leash" means you expect to make that decision around mid-season, and are cutting him an ordinary amount of slack. The "short leash" means he has, at most, until the end of May to prove he should be out there every day, and he doesn't have a lot of slack. He has to be good, not just OK. Note that I am assuming that because of Castillo's struggles this year, the 4th OF we pick up over the winter will be a LHH who can assume the larger half of a platoon and do an OK job when and if it's decided that Castillo's simply not good enough to start against RHP. (More or less the role we envisioned for Nava at the start of this season, as an alternative to Victorino.) That's what would happen in the "short leash" scenario, and in some of the "medium leash" ones (depending on how good the 4th OF has been and on the availability of better bats via trade). Giving the 4th OFer the big half of the platoon, to upgrade suckage to adequacy, does not preclude trading for someone better at the deadline, but this poll is about what the plan should be at the start of ST. I too believe we need another left handed hitting outfielder. Maybe even being the starter! I'd like for us to explore Josh Reddick in Oakland. Maybe Castillo can be part of a trade for him. But I don't see Rusney being totally effective going forward. He is so raw it is surprising. He has little clue at bat and on the bases. Certainly I hope I'm wrong, but I was very disappointed with his performance especially in September. I love Reddick, but he's been very vocal about how angry he is that the A's platoon him. If he's not going to be playing every day here he might be a problem.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 13, 2015 14:34:27 GMT -5
If Reddick wants to make the playoffs he's going to be platooned by any competitive team, at least partially.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 13, 2015 15:19:43 GMT -5
That's true, but a) he also hasn't really had enough plate appearances to say definitively what his current talent level is (even if he isn't likely to improve from whatever that level is) and b) he's been worth 2.9 bWAR/2.4 fWAR per 600 PA. So even if he is roughly as good as he has shown, even a marginal upgrade from his 50th percentile projection is likely to be expensive or come with higher risk. Almost all of his value to date has come from his defense (+20 UZR/150, +29 DRS/year). I can buy that he's an above-average defender, and maybe even a plus one, but he's not one of the five or so best defensive outfielders in the league. My personal 50th percentile projection for him going forward is something like a 90 wRC+ hitter (something like .260/.300/.400) with +5 defense in CF and big platoon splits. That's still a pretty good player (something around two wins over the course of 600 PAs), but one you're not afraid to upgrade on or lightly/moderately platoon (think Chris Denorfia or Chris Young). Yes, but on the Sox he has to be seen as an excellent left fielder, the best LF on the team, a position that a solid 15 years of Red Sox players have played poorly. Neither JBJ nor Mookie (especially showing off his improved arm) are playing LF, and El Castillo, because of Fenway, may become one of the plus defenders in the league. Hs instincts in LF already appear above average, unlike baserunning (a problem which appears endemic to Cuban players). A quick look at the top Left Fielders around the League (per MLB.com), like Brantley, Cespedes, Dickerson, Gordon, Holiday, Marte, Upton, Werth, Yelich, indicate that Rusney might indeed be in or close to the top ten, especially if any of his tools like base stealing and running, xbh power, develop. Finally, there is no one near ready on the farm, and Rusney will, as is, add wins to LF in 2016 both on offense and defense; and contimue the combined BBC high level of energy and production we saw in Aug and Sept. Sign a deAza or Young or ?? and get some pitching. Keep the "youth" movement going.
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Post by jmei on Oct 13, 2015 15:57:38 GMT -5
A quick look at the top Left Fielders around the League (per MLB.com), like Brantley, Cespedes, Dickerson, Gordon, Holiday, Marte, Upton, Werth, Yelich, indicate that Rusney might indeed be in or close to the top ten, especially if any of his tools like base stealing and running, xbh power, develop. I don't think Castillo comes close to any of those guys (especially offensively), and I think it's hard to make a case that he does with a straight face.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 13, 2015 16:56:40 GMT -5
A quick look at the top Left Fielders around the League (per MLB.com), like Brantley, Cespedes, Dickerson, Gordon, Holiday, Marte, Upton, Werth, Yelich, indicate that Rusney might indeed be in or close to the top ten, especially if any of his tools like base stealing and running, xbh power, develop. I don't think Castillo comes close to any of those guys (especially offensively), and I think it's hard to make a case that he does with a straight face. It's kinda crazy to even compare LFers. The best LFers are in RF or CF.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 13, 2015 19:48:12 GMT -5
I don't think Castillo comes close to any of those guys (especially offensively), and I think it's hard to make a case that he does with a straight face. It's kinda crazy to even compare LFers. The best LFers are in RF or CF. That is my point, or part of it. He is a CF who may not, even if he figures things out, be a top CF, even on the Sox. But his CF skills plus ability to play the wall, as well as cover LF on the road, may make him the best choice for LF on the Sox. I listed the top 10 LF per MLB and said, with a straight face, that if he starts hitting and improves baserunning and stealing, he could become, key word become, part of that group. They all, with few exceptions, have hitting or power or fielding or running issues, and they all developed into the top ten, and none as rookies. There are another 50+ Left Fielders in the Majors, and Rusney already compares well in most categories with most of them. I think we need a better look at Rusney beyond his rookie season before shipping him out, especially as there is no big need to do so.
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Post by jmei on Oct 13, 2015 20:57:34 GMT -5
I listed the top 10 LF per MLB and said, with a straight face, that if he starts hitting and improves baserunning and stealing, he could become, key word become, part of that group. They all, with few exceptions, have hitting or power or fielding or running issues, and they all developed into the top ten, and none as rookies. There are another 50+ Left Fielders in the Majors, and Rusney already compares well in most categories with most of them. I think we need a better look at Rusney beyond his rookie season before shipping him out, especially as there is no big need to do so. I think you need to project a pretty sizable amount of improvement before he joins the top 10 left fielders. I don't see any basis for arguing that Castillo "compares well" with other major league left fielders based on his performance to date. Among the 64 players with 250+ PAs and who played LF last year, Castillo ranks: - 34th in BA
- 57th in OBP
- 52nd in SLG
- 58th in wRC+
- 57th in baserunning
- 4th in "Def" (which combines positional adjustment and UZR)
- 41st in fWAR
Maybe he has that sort of upside. I wouldn't count on it, though. All he needs to be is an averagish regular to earn his contact, and that's what I think he projects to be. I think you're setting yourself up for heartbreak if you think he's much better than that, though.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 14, 2015 1:42:46 GMT -5
I listed the top 10 LF per MLB and said, with a straight face, that if he starts hitting and improves baserunning and stealing, he could become, key word become, part of that group. They all, with few exceptions, have hitting or power or fielding or running issues, and they all developed into the top ten, and none as rookies. There are another 50+ Left Fielders in the Majors, and Rusney already compares well in most categories with most of them. I think we need a better look at Rusney beyond his rookie season before shipping him out, especially as there is no big need to do so. I think you need to project a pretty sizable amount of improvement before he joins the top 10 left fielders. I don't see any basis for arguing that Castillo "compares well" with other major league left fielders based on his performance to date. Among the 64 players with 250+ PAs and who played LF last year, Castillo ranks: - 34th in BA
- 57th in OBP
- 52nd in SLG
- 58th in wRC+
- 57th in baserunning
- 4th in "Def" (which combines positional adjustment and UZR)
- 41st in fWAR
Maybe he has that sort of upside. I wouldn't count on it, though. All he needs to be is an averagish regular to earn his contact, and that's what I think he projects to be. I think you're setting yourself up for heartbreak if you think he's much better than that, though. Ouch. Should have dug deeper. Thanks for the data. My hope is he, in his sophomore year, exceeds those numbers going forward, and suspect he will. However, while enjoying the huge success of guys like Cespedes, Puig, Soler in the postseason, I wince at their fubars on defense, on the basepaths, at the plate, which got me wondering if this is who Rusney will become. If so, we must learn to accept such dichotomies.
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Post by larrycook on Oct 14, 2015 13:17:59 GMT -5
If you platoon him lightly or manage his off-days well, though, he's probably closer to a 95-105 wRC+ player though, right? If he's someone who would be worth something like 2.2 WAR over 600 PA but 1.8 over 450 (so a player who is clearly above replacement level and a tick above average) then he's probably worth holding onto unless a replacement is readily available. So what I'm trying to say is that you have to be open to upgrading the position (as with any position), but you don't go looking to deal him without a replacement lined up. And of course all of the addenda apply - if someone loves him and has a glowing report on him and offers significant value for him, sure, go for it. Ideally I think I'd go for an outfield alignment of the current trio, giving Betts about 600-650 PA, Bradley 500, Castillo 450, with a worse defensive take n' rake type who complements the latter two. Castillo is muscled up extra tight and has all the flexibility of a baseball bat. Can we realistically expect 450 at bats from a guy that pulls a hammy just tying his shoes?
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 14, 2015 17:17:58 GMT -5
Well he had 461 plate appearances this year, which included his extremely sparse playing time (46 PA in 20 team games) during his first Boston trip.
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wcp3
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Post by wcp3 on Oct 14, 2015 17:37:46 GMT -5
Well he had 461 plate appearances this year, which included his extremely sparse playing time (46 PA in 20 team games) during his first Boston trip. Other than that, larry made a solid point.
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