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The Castillo in 2016 Poll
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 10, 2015 12:34:44 GMT -5
This is the major DDo decision that's gotten the least discussion here.
The three "leash" choices are a combination of patience and slack given, before you decide (if you do) that he's not good enough to start, and needs to either be traded or relegated to a platoon OF role.
"A long leash" means that you expect to wait until the trade deadline before making the decision, and are giving him a lot of leeway to struggle before that. (Obviously, if he's just plain bad for the first three months or awful for the first two, you might make a move sooner, i.e., relegating him to a platoon role. See the final note.)
The "medium leash" means you expect to make that decision around mid-season, and are cutting him an ordinary amount of slack.
The "short leash" means he has, at most, until the end of May to prove he should be out there every day, and he doesn't have a lot of slack. He has to be good, not just OK.
Note that I am assuming that because of Castillo's struggles this year, the 4th OF we pick up over the winter will be a LHH who can assume the larger half of a platoon and do an OK job when and if it's decided that Castillo's simply not good enough to start against RHP. (More or less the role we envisioned for Nava at the start of this season, as an alternative to Victorino.) That's what would happen in the "short leash" scenario, and in some of the "medium leash" ones (depending on how good the 4th OF has been and on the availability of better bats via trade). Giving the 4th OFer the big half of the platoon, to upgrade suckage to adequacy, does not preclude trading for someone better at the deadline, but this poll is about what the plan should be at the start of ST.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 10, 2015 13:28:39 GMT -5
I'm not a believer. Trade him while he's still worth something. Maybe something like a Kimbrel trade.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 10, 2015 14:15:36 GMT -5
This is the major DDo decision that's gotten the least discussion here. The three "leash" choices are a combination of patience and slack given, before you decide (if you do) that he's not good enough to start, and needs to either be traded or relegated to a platoon OF role. "A long leash" means that you expect to wait until the trade deadline before making the decision, and are giving him a lot of leeway to struggle before that. (Obviously, if he's just plain bad for the first three months or awful for the first two, you might make a move sooner, i.e., relegating him to a platoon role. See the final note.) The "medium leash" means you expect to make that decision around mid-season, and are cutting him an ordinary amount of slack. The "short leash" means he has, at most, until the end of May to prove he should be out there every day, and he doesn't have a lot of slack. He has to be good, not just OK. Note that I am assuming that because of Castillo's struggles this year, the 4th OF we pick up over the winter will be a LHH who can assume the larger half of a platoon and do an OK job when and if it's decided that Castillo's simply not good enough to start against RHP. (More or less the role we envisioned for Nava at the start of this season, as an alternative to Victorino.) That's what would happen in the "short leash" scenario, and in some of the "medium leash" ones (depending on how good the 4th OF has been and on the availability of better bats via trade). Giving the 4th OFer the big half of the platoon, to upgrade suckage to adequacy, does not preclude trading for someone better at the deadline, but this poll is about what the plan should be at the start of ST. I too believe we need another left handed hitting outfielder. Maybe even being the starter! I'd like for us to explore Josh Reddick in Oakland. Maybe Castillo can be part of a trade for him. But I don't see Rusney being totally effective going forward. He is so raw it is surprising. He has little clue at bat and on the bases. Certainly I hope I'm wrong, but I was very disappointed with his performance especially in September. |
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 10, 2015 14:16:44 GMT -5
I'm not a believer. Trade him while he's still worth something. Maybe something like a Kimbrel trade. I'm all for this kind of thinking! |
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 10, 2015 14:18:36 GMT -5
IMO he has the talent and tools the scouts and his history indicated. He has shown an ability to play a potentially elite LF (maybe it just looks that way following Hanley, but he seems real.). He has made some bonehead plays, particularly in the weeks following his callup, but he has also made some great plays. He works hard, which could translate to reaching his ceiling. His contract is reasonable for his potential. Dave Dombrowski came in 2nd to the Sox in acquiring him. He has him now.
Rusney may be an older rookie, but he is still a rookie getting used to MLB style baseball, team mates, the USA, family life, etc. I don't know if he needs a leash any more than any other rookie not named Mookie. Personally, the defensive, offensive, baserunning upside and excitement of a Brusney, Betts, Bradley OF in 2016+ is, on its own, tempting me to renew NESN despite tts Orsillo idiocy.
Edited for grammar.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 10, 2015 14:38:07 GMT -5
I'm not a believer. Trade him while he's still worth something. Maybe something like a Kimbrel trade. I'm all for this kind of thinking! There are also plenty of suitable bridge OFs out there like Rasmus (if not QO'd) for example. We just need someone to hold down the for until Benintendi/Moncada/Margot is ready to assume an OF spot. |
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 10, 2015 14:39:10 GMT -5
I'd like us all to think through his defensive value as we go through this exercise. He played Fenway"s left field wall about as well as I've see anyone play it in the short time he was out there.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 10, 2015 14:48:09 GMT -5
Medium to long leash based on the potential to be an above average player both defensively and offensively. The potential is there for the Sox to have one of the best all around outfields in baseball. They will probably have to be patient with both he and JBJ but I'm hoping they are and they reach their ceilings.
If he is on the Sox to start the year they shouldn't be in any rush to sit him. I would expect him to start slow solely based on the cold weather he isn't used to. He wouldn't be the first southern player to have some issues dealing with that. It would also be helpful if the team gets off to a good start so if he is struggling a little bit it can be marginalized. He wouldn't be the first Cuban to take a little while to be productive.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 10, 2015 14:57:55 GMT -5
I'd like us all to think through his defensive value as we go through this exercise. He played Fenway"s left field wall about as well as I've see anyone play it in the short time he was out there. Exactly. There is no reason to maintain the accepted wisdom that the Sox LF can be a defensive weakness because of its dimensions. Having above average speed, glove and arm in LF is at least as valuable as having an average defender and proven 20+HR bat, especially as Rusney may himself become that 20HR bat, with 30-40 2B-3B xbh. Having one of the very best defensive OF in the league, one which other teams dare not run against, has tremendous value. Despite his rough start, he is worth our patience. |
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 10, 2015 15:31:11 GMT -5
I was pretty disappointed with RC and quite frankly amazed that the scouting was so far off. We heard about his speed but whatever speed he has doesn't play because he's so slow getting out of the box and has no base-stealing instincts at all. The guy we heard was a blazer stole a grand total of four and got caught five times in 2015.
As a hitter, his problem is pretty simple: he swings too much and misses too often. He swung at pitches out of the zone 36.6 percent of the time (league average was 31.3 percent) and made contact on 61.5 percent of those hacks (league average was 65 percent). All that flailing contributed to a lot of first strikes - 67.1 percent; league average of 60.9 percent.
He's great defensively but the idea of the RS going into 2016 with a LF with a wRC+ of 72 isn't inspiring, particularly with his splits. He had a wRC+ of 49 vs. RHP. Since most of the P are RH, that means that in most games we would have serious offensive suckage at a position on the left side of the defensive spectrum.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 10, 2015 16:01:25 GMT -5
I went with the medium leash option, but I'd have like to have left-handed options for left field on the team to begin with. I guess a Holt or Shaw-type guy has to be that option, since anyone better is going to deserve semi-regular playing time, which means you're not even giving Castillo a real chance. I look at Castillo as a tremendous defensive left fielder who is also likely to kill the ball against a lot of left handed pitchers. The baserunning was atrocious, but I'm fairly confident he'll improve considerably there over time. Similarly atrocious, and more worrisome, was his ability to pick up (and hit) pitches from RHP's.
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Post by soxcentral on Oct 10, 2015 17:13:04 GMT -5
I went with the platoon option for now, as I'm not totally sold on either Rusney or JBJ just yet as full time players.
Really would like to see us run a 3 man rotation with the corner OF's by adding a strong veteran presence on a short-term deal. Torii Hunter would be ideal as a mentor to both Castillo and JBJ if he's open to coming here on a one year deal, or someone else of his skill-set and character.
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Post by larrycook on Oct 10, 2015 18:14:26 GMT -5
I would have no problem trading him or packaging him in a trade if it was for an established starter or an established closer.
I.e.: part of a package for Harvey or part of a package for Kimbrell.
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Post by sarasoxer on Oct 10, 2015 18:15:45 GMT -5
I'm not a believer. Trade him while he's still worth something. Maybe something like a Kimbrel trade. I'm all for this kind of thinking! I saw a report that the Yankees are thinking Kimbrel too...to add to an already overwhelming bullpen. They can't unload many players like A-Rod, Ells, Beltran, Headley and perhaps Tex but they can add to their supernatural pen at a lot less cost. Imagine. (shudder) Kimbrel and Reddick would be a couple of antacid tablets for us. Let Castillo keep learning on the fly somewhere else[/b
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Oct 10, 2015 19:57:16 GMT -5
It's too early to tell what you really have with him....so therefore he should be on the 25 man come April and should be given every chance to prove his worth.
It's hard to believe any club would have enough of a book on him to want to trade for him.
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Post by mgoetze on Oct 11, 2015 20:00:37 GMT -5
Torii Hunter would be ideal as a mentor to both Castillo and JBJ if he's open to coming here on a one year deal, or someone else of his skill-set and character. You think Castillo and JBJ need to learn homophobia?!? |
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Post by mgoetze on Oct 11, 2015 20:02:36 GMT -5
On trading Castillo: does AJ Preller have anything left that we want? (No, James Shields doesn't count, he's a horrible fit for Fenway.)
Can anyone estimate for how many teams Castillo would be a defensive upgrade over their current starting CFer? (Assuming here that Castillo would be more valuable in CF than in a corner, which may or may not be true.)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2015 20:58:24 GMT -5
I saw a report that the Yankees are thinking Kimbrel too...to add to an already overwhelming bullpen.
If only the Red Sox could find and develop a guy like one of those guys. Oh wait, we did and then let him get away. Thanks again, Ben. |
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Post by larrycook on Oct 11, 2015 23:24:20 GMT -5
I saw a report that the Yankees are thinking Kimbrel too...to add to an already overwhelming bullpen.
If only the Red Sox could find and develop a guy like one of those guys. Oh wait, we did and then let him get away. Thanks again, Ben. Ouch! Ps: maybe the Nationals would part with papelbon and Ross for Castillo and prospects? I think span is leaving. |
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 12, 2015 8:29:36 GMT -5
This is a joke, right? You honestly think the Sox should send Rodriguez off to the Yankees to get Miller back? That was a huge net positive, so let me thank him for you.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 12, 2015 8:45:30 GMT -5
If only the Red Sox could find and develop a guy like one of those guys. Oh wait, we did and then let him get away. Thanks again, Ben. Ouch! Ps: maybe the Nationals would part with papelbon and Ross for Castillo and prospects? I think span is leaving. Quality trolling Larry. Anyone will be able to have Papelbon for a song in a week or so. Ross is a different story. |
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 12, 2015 9:16:06 GMT -5
I actually like that trade Larry, but I don't think they'll trade Ross with Zimmermann and Strasburg being FA this year and next.
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Post by jrffam05 on Oct 12, 2015 12:17:58 GMT -5
The Castillo question is one I've been pondering to myself for a while. I wasn't crazy about the signing at the time, but I still feel he has a good shot of earning his reasonable but lengthy contract (~12M AAV off the top of my head). That in today's market is less than 2 WAR per season. I'd forecast his bat roughly similar to what he did in AAA this year, probably less avg/obp and more potential ISO.
That being said, if you had the opportunity to trade 100% of his contract and get some value back, I'd pull the trigger. Find a 1 year stopgap or someone to platoon in LF and spend the saving on pitching. In this situation I'd also shy away from trading Margot.
I don't think it's a bad move to keep him either.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 12, 2015 12:57:45 GMT -5
This is a joke, right? You honestly think the Sox should send Rodriguez off to the Yankees to get Miller back? That was a huge net positive, so let me thank him for you. Let's think about this one for a moment. The Red Sox could have BOTH Rodriguez AND Miller if they'd matched the offer the Yanks made. Faced with two offers of 4 years / $36 million, who do you think Miller would be playing for right now? But, no. Ben thought Breslow could fill the role. |
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Post by ray88h66 on Oct 12, 2015 13:02:46 GMT -5
If he wasn't being paid so much there would be no need for a poll. Sox are stuck with him. Have to root for him to perform.
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