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SoxProspects season-end rankings
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 13, 2015 8:51:05 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on Oct 13, 2015 9:02:20 GMT -5
Cross-posting what I had posted in another thread: Random thoughts on the SP.com year-end list as compared to my own: -Basabe at 12 is aggressive. I don't know that he has the ceiling to be ranked that high considering how far from the majors he is. -I just can't get excited about Stankiewicz and his 13.2% strikeout rate. I have him at 32, down with Trey Ball, Aaron Wilkerson, and Kevin McAvoy. -Sean Coyle at 46 and Henry Ramos at 47-- I know health is at least somewhat a skill, but they've dropped too far, too fast for two guys who had been in or approaching the top twenty as recently as six or seven months ago. -Ditto for Simon Mercedes being out of the top 60. |
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Post by jrffam05 on Oct 13, 2015 9:06:01 GMT -5
Espinoza beating out Margot, who been pretty much on all the top 25 lists. SP usually beats the trend, so lets see this dude rocket up prospects lists.
What's the justification of Kopech passing Johnson? Not saying I necessarily disagree, but too much hasn't changed since the last couple of rankings where Johnson was on top.
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Post by soxfanatic on Oct 13, 2015 10:47:05 GMT -5
Disappointed in Raudes, Steen, Matheny and Cosart rounding out the bottom (57-60).
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Post by soxfanatic on Oct 13, 2015 10:48:02 GMT -5
Espinoza beating out Margot, who been pretty much on all the top 25 lists. SP usually beats the trend, so lets see this dude rocket up prospects lists. What's the justification of Kopech passing Johnson? Not saying I necessarily disagree, but too much hasn't changed since the last couple of rankings where Johnson was on top. Maybe Johnson's inability to stay healthy? |
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Post by soxfanatic on Oct 13, 2015 10:52:13 GMT -5
Also, I don't see how Marrero is good enough of a prospect to be ranked in the top ten. I know his glove gives him a high floor, but he didn't hit at all this year and struggled in AAA the year before as well. He's 25 now and to me what you see is what you get. IMO, very little untapped projection left.
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Post by humanbeingbean on Oct 13, 2015 10:57:00 GMT -5
I have no problems with Travis at 9, as obviously, being a first baseman with fringe-average power shouldn't make you an elite-tier prospect, but are we all giving him enough credit? Everyone ranked higher than him deserves their rankings, but I feel like Travis is very underrated, or at least under-appreciated. Just glancing quickly at his stat lines show you he's raked since college, and hasn't really stopped. His walk rates aren't the best, but look some stats while in Portland:
Against righties: .284/.360 with a .736 OPS.
Against lefties: .370/.475 with a 1.170 OPS.
And with men on base: .385/.431/.963
So, at the very least, he figures to be the lefty-masher side of a possible platoon, or capable bench bat. But he doesn't even need to be platooned, as a .284/.360/.736 isn't awful at all. It isn't as much power as should be desired from your first baseman, but does anyone have any objections to him possibly topping out as a .280/.340/.820 or so guy, with 15-20 homers? He also mans first well.
I think he should seriously be considered as a viable first base option in the near future; maybe he could share some AB's with Shaw and (Hanley), if that's what our first base is, by September, or even earlier in the summer. If he doesn't get a shot because of his lack of overwhelming power thus far, and he's traded, I think we might regret it.
Also, this isn't a comment on the ranking at all (also find it fair), but I'm very excited to watch how Kopech grows this season. I think we all understand who Espinoza is, but Kopech's also only 19, won't be 20 until April 30, and more than held his own in Greenville. It's such a shame that he made that (definitely unintentional) mistake and got suspended, but I bet this fuels his fire for next year. I'm hoping he makes it to Portland next year; his stuff seems electric, from how it's described, and from the little video I've seen. I hope he finds consistency in his mechanics and control.
I hope we retain both Anderson and Kopech at all costs, but I'd be willing to part with Kopech if it meant we'd get Carrasco. But I'd be sad.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 13, 2015 11:11:42 GMT -5
Espinoza beating out Margot, who been pretty much on all the top 25 lists. SP usually beats the trend, so lets see this dude rocket up prospects lists. What's the justification of Kopech passing Johnson? Not saying I necessarily disagree, but too much hasn't changed since the last couple of rankings where Johnson was on top. Fair question to ask. One part is a positive report on him from Instructs. Also, these rankings involved a more thorough back-and-forth over a conference call than we typically do in our monthly rankings. Part of it, for me, was asking "would you trade X for Y? How about Y for X?" On those two, I found myself saying I would probably at least consider Johnson for Kopech, but would be less likely to want to do Kopech for Johnson. Even with recent positive reports, I admittedly found it hard to get over Johnson's injury, and maybe it would've been different if Johnson finished the year healthy. It's not an injury history thing the way it is with, say, Coyle, but you hear elbow and... it's just hard to ignore, y'know? Frankly, it's close. They're such different profiles in terms of risk and ceiling that it's really hard to compare the two. 7a and 7b for me, honestly. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 13, 2015 11:13:38 GMT -5
Also, I don't see how Marrero is good enough of a prospect to be ranked in the top ten. I know his glove gives him a high floor, but he didn't hit at all this year and struggled in AAA the year before as well. He's 25 now and to me what you see is what you get. IMO, very little untapped projection left. As I always ask when I hear "X player is too high" - what player would you rank higher (in this case, in the top 10), and why? I definitely feel you, but after the top 9, there was a pretty clear drop off, for me. For me, came down to him and Chavis. Chavis is nowhere near as good defensively, although improving, and still has a lot of development left at the plate. Marrero is at least an MLB bench player and could potentially start for a B division team. That's not nothing. |
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 13, 2015 11:25:29 GMT -5
Espinoza beating out Margot, who been pretty much on all the top 25 lists. SP usually beats the trend, so lets see this dude rocket up prospects lists. What's the justification of Kopech passing Johnson? Not saying I necessarily disagree, but too much hasn't changed since the last couple of rankings where Johnson was on top. Fair question to ask. One part is a positive report on him from Instructs. Also, these rankings involved a more thorough back-and-forth over a conference call than we typically do in our monthly rankings. Part of it, for me, was asking "would you trade X for Y? How about Y for X?" On those two, I found myself saying I would probably at least consider Johnson for Kopech, but would be less likely to want to do Kopech for Johnson.Even with recent positive reports, I admittedly found it hard to get over Johnson's injury, and maybe it would've been different if Johnson finished the year healthy. It's not an injury history thing the way it is with, say, Coyle, but you hear elbow and... it's just hard to ignore, y'know? Frankly, it's close. They're such different profiles in terms of risk and ceiling that it's really hard to compare the two. 7a and 7b for me, honestly. Most of us probably drool over ceilings that way. I'd hate to give up any prospect with a high ceiling because what if he reaches it? |
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dd
Veteran
Posts: 979 
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Post by dd on Oct 13, 2015 11:32:06 GMT -5
DetailsSummary:
- Anderson Espinoza up from 5 to 3 and his Current Grade is up from 5 to 6. His ETA, previously 2020, is now 2018.
- Andrew Benintendi moved up a spot, from 6 to 5, and his Current Grade also increased from 5 to 6.
- Michael Kopech is up from 9 to 7.
- Luis Alexander Basabe jumped from 23 to 12.
- Allen Logan was another big riser going from 22 to 13.
- Williams Jerez moved up 5, from 26 to 21.
- Luis Ysla is ranked for the first time at # 22.
- Jonathan Aro up from 28 to 24.
- Noe Ramirez went from 31 to 24.
- Edwin Escobar went the other way from 30 to 27.
- Yoan Aybar fell from 24 to 29.
- Travis Lakins climbed up 10 spots from 44 to 34.
- Chandler Shepherd moved from 45 to 40.
- Austin Rei down from 37 to 41.
- Yankory Pimentel is ranked for the first time at # 43.
- Gerson Bautista returned to the top 60 at # 45. He was last ranked # 57 on 7/31.
- Josh Ockimey jumped up 8, 57 to 49.
- Josh Pennington is ranked for the first time at 50.
- Kyri Washington up from 58 to 51.
- Jeremy Rivera followed him from 59 to 52.
- Victor Diaz at # 53 is in the rankings for the first time.
- Kevin Steen fell from 50 to 57.
- Rauniel Raudes paralleled Steen falling from 51 to 58.
- Tate Matheny dropped 11 spots down to # 59.
- Jake Cosart rounds out the top 60. He was # 54 last month. At the end of April Jake was ranked 24th.
- Not ranked this week were:
- Henry Owens - graduated, # 4 last month.
- Travis Shaw - graduated, # 12
- Heath Hembree - graduated, #27
- Simon Mercedes - from # 56
- Jorge Marban - from # 60
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 13, 2015 11:54:16 GMT -5
- Andrew Benintendi moved up a spot, from 5 to 6, and his Current Grade also increased from 5 to 6.
Think you mean from 6 to 5 for the ranking. Thanks for doing these. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 13, 2015 12:04:22 GMT -5
Disappointed in Raudes, Steen, Matheny and Cosart rounding out the bottom (57-60). There is at least a report on Cosart from Instructs coming this week. I believe we'll have a Raudes report coming too. Unsure on Steen, and on Matheny, he was not seen while our guys were down there, and a lot of that was based on talking through what our guys saw in Lowell. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 16, 2015 14:26:42 GMT -5
Cross-posting what I had posted in another thread: Random thoughts on the SP.com year-end list as compared to my own: -Basabe at 12 is aggressive. I don't know that he has the ceiling to be ranked that high considering how far from the majors he is. -I just can't get excited about Stankiewicz and his 13.2% strikeout rate. I have him at 32, down with Trey Ball, Aaron Wilkerson, and Kevin McAvoy. -Sean Coyle at 46 and Henry Ramos at 47-- I know health is at least somewhat a skill, but they've dropped too far, too fast for two guys who had been in or approaching the top twenty as recently as six or seven months ago. -Ditto for Simon Mercedes being out of the top 60. Was thinking more about how Basabe wound up at 12, and I think the thing is this: looking at the prior rankings without the guys who graduated, there really was a pretty big gap, at least in my opinion, between Chavis and the next guy, who at that time was Ball. The brass all had the same top 9, in some order. We all had Marrero and Chavis between 10 and 12. The differentiation on the lists really started from there. Votes for the 12th guy in the top 12 (although not necessarily for #12) were 2 for Basabe, 1 for Ball, 1 for Rijo. Votes for #13 were split between Basabe and Allen. Point is, it really felt to me like things started to fall off precipitously after Travis, and then there was another sort of tier with Marrero and Chavis followed by a vaccuum that nobody had really stepped into all year. There wasn't a lot of difference, for me, in the guys ranked from say 14 to 23. That's a vaccuum created by the likes of Cecchini, Coyle, Escobar (all three being in the top 20 to start the year), Brentz, Cosart, and Mercedes falling off; Swihart, Rodriguez, Owens, Barnes, & Shaw graduating; and the lack of a second-round pick plus the poor debuts of Matheny and Rei meaning the draft class didn't exactly step up either. In other words, 11 guys disappeared from the top 30, while just 2 new guys entered, plus Espinoza rocketing upward. That top 8 is as strong as I can ever remember it being, and the U25 list is insanely good (as I tweeted, my U25 list has Johnson at 15, which is just dumb). But to me, 10-23 is about as good as it typically is, if not a shade below. |
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Nov 3, 2015 13:06:48 GMT -5
Why is Raudes not in the top 60?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 3, 2015 13:32:42 GMT -5
Why is Raudes not in the top 60? He is. At 58. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 4, 2015 7:04:17 GMT -5
Based on Chris's post above, it looks like 2 years from now this system could have a major fall in the rankings. Dumbroski will undoubtedly get the blame but the writing is on the wall already.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Nov 4, 2015 7:55:21 GMT -5
Based on Chris's post above, it looks like 2 years from now this system could have a major fall in the rankings. Dumbroski will undoubtedly get the blame but the writing is on the wall already. The Red Sox system was historically good from low A down this year and you think they are set up to have a major fall in the rankings in two years? It is entirely possible (though not certain) that Moncada, Devers, Espinoza, Benintendi, Guerra, Kopech, Chavis, Basabe, Allen, Longhi, and others are all still eligible for this list in two years. Plus, trying to predict what the system will look like in two years is kind of a fool's errand anyways. Where were Moncada, Devers, Espinoza, Benintendi, Guerra, Kopech, Travis, Chavis, Basabe, Allen etc two years ago? I'll give you a clue: Only two of that group had played a game for the Red Sox and it was in the DSL: Guerra and Basabe. And the only other one that was even in the organization at that point was Devers. |
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