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Post by SlugLife on Oct 19, 2015 9:20:25 GMT -5
Jonathan Papelbon.
Say what you will about his behavior, but Boston is probably one of the few cities where he could thrive again and he will cost almost nothing, with either Washington picking up the majority of his salary or as part of a larger contract swap.
He is no Aroldis Chapman, but he has been pretty darn good since leaving the Red Sox.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 19, 2015 10:24:27 GMT -5
Jonathan Papelbon. Say what you will about his behavior, but Boston is probably one of the few cities where he could thrive again and he will cost almost nothing, with either Washington picking up the majority of his salary or as part of a larger contract swap. He is no Aroldis Chapman, but he has been pretty darn good since leaving the Red Sox. I'd actually like to see that move myself. He is still held in high regard by most in Boston and would certainly give us another solid option at the end of games. It wouldn't balance out exactly and the Nats would have to maybe add some dough, but how about Allen Craig?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 19, 2015 13:27:32 GMT -5
Jonathan Papelbon. Say what you will about his behavior, but Boston is probably one of the few cities where he could thrive again and he will cost almost nothing, with either Washington picking up the majority of his salary or as part of a larger contract swap. He is no Aroldis Chapman, but he has been pretty darn good since leaving the Red Sox. I'd actually like to see that move myself. He is still held in high regard by most in Boston and would certainly give us another solid option at the end of games. It wouldn't balance out exactly and the Nats would have to maybe add some dough, but how about Allen Craig? The one interesting question: how do you use him and Koji? At this point, they're close enough to one another in quality that it's impossible to predict who will have the better season, so that doesn't enter into it. Papelbon presumably wants to close and Koji doesn't care. But Farrell believes that Koji's splitter gets chased more often in the 9th then in the 8th because hitters are more aggressive. However, in his career he's been as effective in the 8th as in the 9th. I would have them share the 8th / 9th inning roles, depending on which hitters they've facing. Koji in his career has been deadly against weak hitters (1, 2, 8, 9 in the batting order) and has struggled relatively against guys with more power (especially 3 and 4). In contrast, Papelbon has amazingly mild splits across the batting order, tougher than Koji against elite power hitters and not nearly as good against weak hitters. In terms of players liking to know what their roles will be, I would think that knowing which hitters you were likely to face would be even better than knowing which innings you were probably going to pitch. Before each game, you've decided which guy pitches the 8th based on which hitter is up first. I think Papelbon would buy into closing expect for when the heart of the order was coming up in the 8th. And in fact, it would raise the question as to why any team would want to throw a good but not great set-up guy against 3, 4, 5, 6, in the 8th inning, and then bring in the unhittable closer to face 7, 8, 9 in the 9th. Of course, if teams start platooning relievers that way, we're really going to have to start adjusting more visibly for quality of batters faced.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 19, 2015 16:30:54 GMT -5
If I went that way and acquired Papelbon I'd sell them both on a two headed closer built completely off of match-ups for the 9th. Not sure that sells.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 19, 2015 16:40:30 GMT -5
Farrell's head would explode if you gave him two closers who have to pitch the 9th inning in every save situation.
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Post by cambos174 on Oct 19, 2015 18:01:02 GMT -5
The only chance to trade Craig is to a team in Japan or the like, while eating a LOT of his contract. I'd still do it but no way are the Nats that desperate to move Pap. They'd sooner cut him than trade for Craig.
I could see a Workman for a subsidized Pap. Something like Pap and 3-5 mil for Workman.
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Post by soxfanatic on Oct 19, 2015 18:03:55 GMT -5
The only chance to trade Craig is to a team in Japan or the like, while eating a LOT of his contract. I'd still do it but no way are the Nats that desperate to move Pap. They'd sooner cut him than trade for Craig. I could see a Workman for a subsidized Pap. Something like Pap and 3-5 mil for Workman. Lol
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Post by artfuldodger on Oct 19, 2015 18:04:46 GMT -5
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Post by chavopepe2 on Oct 19, 2015 18:09:58 GMT -5
According to this story, the Astros could have acquired Kimbrel for Francis Markes, Josh Hadlet, and Joseph Musgrave. Would the Red Sox equivalent be Owens, Barnes, and Johnson? Would you give something along these lines for Kimbrel? I'm not sure about the prospect comps, but Owens, Johnson, and Barnes for Kimbrel is NUTS.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 19, 2015 18:18:19 GMT -5
Lol that would never happen. Martes alone would be too much.
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Post by klostrophobic on Oct 19, 2015 18:18:51 GMT -5
I think what's really important is that someone internally flashes in the minors and winds up as a key piece in the bullpen by season's end because throwing a lot of money at relievers is a loser's proposition. Someone like Pat Light, Luis Ysla or Matt Barnes. Right now it's Uehara, Tazawa and a bunch of middle to long relievers. Maybe Roman Mendez has the upside (with plenty of downside) potential to be a high-leverage reliever?
Basically I hope they go into spring training without a lot of the bullpen set in stone. Much better for it to be fluid where you aren't playing the inferior player because he has a guaranteed MLB contract and the better pitcher is in AAA because he has options.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2015 19:32:54 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 19, 2015 23:09:40 GMT -5
Just for record-keep purposes, that hasn't actually happened yet. Outside pitch reported that CBS reported it. CBS reported that The Boston Herald reported it. The Herald basically said it was almost certain to happen in November at the deadline. It would've been a pretty big indictment of Light had he not been added. Even if the Sox don't love him he has enough value as a trade chip that they weren't going to risk exposing him to the Rule 5. ----- Unrelated thought: My pet 2016 reclamation project idea is Rafael Soriano. Given how little he'd cost and how good he was as recently as '14 I'd give him a guaranteed one-year deal with an option for '17. Plus there's the fact that he has a history of success in the AL East, if that's the sort of thing you are worried about.
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Post by soxfanatic on Nov 4, 2015 5:36:48 GMT -5
Rob Bradford @bradfo 8 u Dombrowski says on Hot Stove Show that Matt Barnes will head into spring training as a reliever
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Post by sox fan in nc on Nov 4, 2015 10:16:29 GMT -5
Rob Bradford @bradfo 8 u Dombrowski says on Hot Stove Show that Matt Barnes will head into spring training as a reliever Not sure why his stuff hasn't played up the pen as Wade Davis/Danny Duffy did. I know it doesn't mean everything, but their velocities are similar. I do agree if he is going to succeed in the majors, it will be as a reliever. Hopefully he's a late bloomer.
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Post by justen on Nov 4, 2015 10:46:02 GMT -5
Just for record-keep purposes, that hasn't actually happened yet. Outside pitch reported that CBS reported it. CBS reported that The Boston Herald reported it. The Herald basically said it was almost certain to happen in November at the deadline. It would've been a pretty big indictment of Light had he not been added. Even if the Sox don't love him he has enough value as a trade chip that they weren't going to risk exposing him to the Rule 5. ----- Unrelated thought: My pet 2016 reclamation project idea is Rafael Soriano. Given how little he'd cost and how good he was as recently as '14 I'd give him a guaranteed one-year deal with an option for '17. Plus there's the fact that he has a history of success in the AL East, if that's the sort of thing you are worried about. Agreed! How about a Trevor Cahill kind of guy as well? I know he was pitching for the Cubs after a transition to the bullpen. Pretty sure Maddon even used him in the post season as a reliever. Young guy with a good sinker, and his shady track record of late should keep him at a pretty moderate price. Could also provide value with some spot starts. Davis and Clippard seem poised to be overpaid by someone else, but either one of them would be such a nice get for this bullpen which really needs a shutdown arm. Love me some Tony Sipp as well, but here's to hoping Hill comes back just as strong. Once we get Workman back from TJS, that will be a nice boost as well. Wonder if Dom picks a couple arms from our system to fast track to the bullpen, as many people above have mentioned. Barnes and kelly themselves have good enough arms to make a pretty big impact on that bullpen.
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Post by mandelbro on Nov 4, 2015 11:43:23 GMT -5
Rob Bradford @bradfo Dombrowski says on Hot Stove Show that Matt Barnes will head into spring training as a reliever Glad to see the new regime is willing to move quickly on something like this, rather than cling onto the fantasy of him as a more valuable starting pitcher. Barnes doesn't fool anyone right now and he won't until he improves his command to the edges of the plate. Maybe ditching the curve and pitching out of the stretch can help him do that?
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Post by goldenmonkey34 on Nov 5, 2015 11:24:51 GMT -5
I'm I the only one who's genuinely concerned about Koji? The guys coming off an injury and is 42 I believe. His fastball tops out at around 88mph now. It seems really risky to rely on someone with that kind of wear and tear
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 5, 2015 12:51:59 GMT -5
I like Ryan Madson quite a bit. His stuff looked really good during the 2nd half. No idea what it would take, but would think it wouldn't be too bad. Darren O'Day certainly looks like a sure thing (as much as a reliever can be). What kind of contracts will these guys and Tony Sipp get this off season? My own opinion, here, but the time to buy on guys like Madson is before they re-emerge, not after when you'll pay 2-3 times more for their services. The issue is the one that's been mentioned many times before: there is no greater year-to-year variability in performance than what you'll find in the corps of relievers. The idea is to find what jmei refers to as those "fungible assets" just as they're, once again, coming on. That's not easy obviously, but paying through the nose for guys who may pitch 50-70 innings, and who may be having one of those years where they struggle for a good part of those, is a mistake. Add: This is also what makes Papelbon a very viable option - if you can put up with the boatload of baggage he hauls in. He's been very effective and the stink in DC is still strong. He'll be a good buy low candidate... but you will have to manage he and his role, and there's always the risk of an explosion.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 5, 2015 13:05:24 GMT -5
I'm I the only one who's genuinely concerned about Koji? The guys coming off an injury and is 42 I believe. His fastball tops out at around 88mph now. It seems really risky to rely on someone with that kind of wear and tear Well I think this might finally be the year that someone tells Farrell to knock his crap off with overusing bullpen guys. Koji should be fine, though not as dominant. I wouldn't be surprised if they got a new closer to help Farrell with his mindset of 'closers have to close' even if there have been 7 save opportunities in 8 days.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Nov 5, 2015 13:40:07 GMT -5
I'm I the only one who's genuinely concerned about Koji? The guys coming off an injury and is 42 I believe. His fastball tops out at around 88mph now. It seems really risky to rely on someone with that kind of wear and tear Well I think this might finally be the year that someone tells Farrell to knock his crap off with overusing bullpen guys. Koji should be fine, though not as dominant. I wouldn't be surprised if they got a new closer to help Farrell with his mindset of 'closers have to close' even if there have been 7 save opportunities in 8 days. A trickle down affect of having a far superior defense in the second half really made that surge happen....LF, RF, 1B, even Pablo got better....a lot of games came down to HAVING to use Koji/Tazawa to just have a chance. How many hits would have not fallen if JBJ or Castillo was in LF, missed cut-offs, overthrows, runners tagging up due to an OF not setting up correctly for a throw.....
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 5, 2015 15:13:38 GMT -5
Koji and Tazawa have not been worked particularly hard relative to their peers.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 5, 2015 15:56:22 GMT -5
Koji and Tazawa have not been worked particularly hard relative to their peers. But if Tazawa suffers from an average amount of work, you have to give him less. SIERA by months, 2013-15 2.64 April / May (71.1 IP) 2.72 June / July (63 IP) 3.48 August / September (56.2 IP) The last figure would be about 3.60 if he hadn't been shut down this year. My eyes tell me that his HR/FB has spiked as well, but I wanted to look at just his baseline stuff first.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 5, 2015 16:23:29 GMT -5
Koji and Tazawa have not been worked particularly hard relative to their peers. Koji has probably been worked hard relative to 40 year olds who have had a history of getting fatigued or injured when used too much.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 5, 2015 16:33:39 GMT -5
I like Ryan Madson quite a bit. His stuff looked really good during the 2nd half. No idea what it would take, but would think it wouldn't be too bad. Darren O'Day certainly looks like a sure thing (as much as a reliever can be). What kind of contracts will these guys and Tony Sipp get this off season? My own opinion, here, but the time to buy on guys like Madson is before they re-emerge, not after when you'll pay 2-3 times more for their services. The issue is the one that's been mentioned many times before: there is no greater year-to-year variability in performance than what you'll find in the corps of relievers. The idea is to find what jmei refers to as those "fungible assets" just as they're, once again, coming on. That's not easy obviously, but paying through the nose for guys who may pitch 50-70 innings, and who may be having one of those years where they struggle for a good part of those, is a mistake. Add: This is also what makes Papelbon a very viable option - if you can put up with the boatload of baggage he hauls in. He's been very effective and the stink in DC is still strong. He'll be a good buy low candidate... but you will have to manage he and his role, and there's always the risk of an explosion. A study I really want to do now, if I can find the time: an examination of where valuable relievers pitched the year before, and what their background was. I want to break them down several ways. Most importantly, what they were the year before: good, average, bad, or minor league prospect relievers, or MLB or minor league starters. Second, whether they changed teams or not (and maybe how they changed). And finally, I want to divide the guys who were already relievers and who were not good the previous year into guys who had never been good versus those who had been. IOW, blossomers versus reclamation projects. The question I'm most curious about is whether there are GMs who have a track record for spotting guys who are about to become good. But it would also be nice to find out just how common blossomers are versus reclamation projects versus starter conversions. Of course, the tricky part will be defining the criteria. If Matt Barnes is good in 2016, should he count as a guy who blossomed as a reliever (without changing teams), or as a starter conversion?
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