SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Offseason 40-man roster/Rule 5 thread
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 20, 2015 9:20:29 GMT -5
Lots of moving parts on the 40-man this offseason. There's always Rule 5, which we can discuss in here, but there are other considerations as well.
For example, the Red Sox are going to need to DFA three players by the conclusion of the World Series. The roster is at 40 and the only two free agents are Breslow and Hill. Meanwhile, five players (Buchholz, Workman, Vazquez, Varvaro, Uehara) need to come off the 60-day DL.
One figures that Craig is the super-easy first choice. I think Leon would also be fairly certain (he's cleared once). Beyond that, Varvaro, Machi, Cook, Mendez are probably the next candidates. Then you start looking at guys like Coyle, Cecchini, Brentz, and Rutledge.
Meanwhile, in Rule 5 land, you're probably looking at something like this:
Certain: Margot, Hernandez, Light
Possible, likely: Jerez
Possible, but unlikely: Buttrey, Mercedes, Ramos, Scott, Taveras
Worth mentioning, won't happen: Augliera (who pitched better in the bullpen - check his splits), Haley, Pimentel
On Buttrey, having seen him twice this year, there's NO way he'd stick on an MLB roster. He's putting the tools together, but the mental aspects of his game still need a lot of work. I think they'll add the four of Margot, Hernandez, Light, and Jerez.
Should also look at the potential MLFAs: Dayan Diaz, William Cuevas, Luis Diaz, and Madison Younginer. If re-signed, they would also need to be protected. I think the only one they might consider protecting if re-signed is Diaz, but they're so deep in guys at his strata (Workman, Barnes, Escobar, Aro, Hembree, Ramirez, Light, Jerez, and right behind, Kyle Martin, Luis Ysla, German Taveras, Mercedes if he puts it together, etc.) that it probably isn't worth wasting the roster spot.
So in sum, it looks like three roster spots getting cleared soon, with another four coming if not opened up by trades, but that latter space needn't be cleared for a bit. They've got some breathing room in DFA candidates Craig, Leon, Varvaro, Machi, Cook, and Mendez, (non-tendering Ogando also seems like an option) so doesn't appear to be much of a logjam.
|
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Oct 20, 2015 10:28:44 GMT -5
Excellent - I was thinking of posting this last night when I saw something about Pat Light, so you saved me a lot of work. Additional thoughts: Coyle and Brentz are certainly DFA candidates as well at this point (and maybe Cecchini as well though I personally wouldn't). I'd actually probably have Coyle on the block before the Varvaro/Cook/Mendez trio.
There's a chance they actually like Cook. He could be the first person DFA'd or he could be penciled into the 2016 bullpen - I have no gauge on where they stand on him.
Of the five on your "possible but unlikely" group I'd say Ramos is the one with a chance. I don't necessarily think he could stick on a good team's roster all year but he does enough well and he has the athleticism that a bad team could probably hide him. Also, he wouldn't really be a waste of a 40-man spot, because in the case of injury I'd have no problem calling him up as a stopgap. Compare that with someone like Buttrey, who is certainly too far away from putting it together to be able to help the team in 2016. Adding Buttrey would hurt the current roster and start his options burning before he's anywhere near ready - they'd end up in a Drake Britton situation again (with someone who doesn't have the upside Britton did).
I'm excited for the Orioles to play all kinds of roster games next year in order to keep Simon Mercedes on the roster at the expense of their own team.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 20, 2015 10:54:05 GMT -5
By the way, speaking of the O's, Jason Garcia, by my count, was active for 96 days, just barely making the cutoff of 90 days, so he's officially O's property now and will probably head to Bowie or something. Well played, O's. Hope it was worth spending that roster spot for 60 non-September days.
April 6 - May 11 (36 days)
August 6 - Oct 4 (60 days)
|
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Oct 20, 2015 12:53:46 GMT -5
Holding onto Garcia directly cost the Orioles Ryan Webb, who is actually a real major league pitcher (3.43 career FIP/3.35 ERA in 376 MLB innings) and had a pretty nice season for the Indians. The difference between Garcia and Webb specifically didn't cost the Orioles the five games they missed the playoffs by, but the decision-making process that led to thinking that sort of thing is a good idea probably did. And for what? Who would you rather have in 2016 or 2017? A useful-enough player like Webb or Garcia who lost another year of development because of those roster games?
That dynamic is something to keep in mind when worrying about protecting someone with upside like Mercedes. Could he stick on a major league roster all year long? Of course he could, because any player can stick on a roster all year long if a the people managing that roster are dumb enough. That doesn't mean it's a good idea.
|
|
|
|
Post by amfox1 on Oct 20, 2015 17:13:45 GMT -5
My 40-man plan:
Gone: Breslow (FA), R.Hill (FA), Cook (DFA/non-tender), Leon (DFA), Brentz (DFA), Escobar (outrighted, out of options), Coyle (outrighted), Craig (outrighted)
Add from 60-man DL: Buchholz (assume option is picked up), Vazquez, Uehara (let Workman/Varvaro go)
Add: Margot, Light, M.Hernandez
Leaves two 40-man roster spots for upgrades.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,989 
|
Post by jimoh on Oct 20, 2015 17:49:01 GMT -5
My 40-man plan: Gone: Breslow (FA), R.Hill (FA), Cook (DFA/non-tender), Leon (DFA), Brentz (DFA), Escobar (outrighted, out of options), Coyle (outrighted), Craig (outrighted) Add from 60-man DL: Buchholz (assume option is picked up), Vazquez, Uehara (let Workman/Varvaro go) Add: Margot, Light, M.Hernandez Leaves two 40-man roster spots for upgrades. Why let Workman/Varvaro go, rather than keeping them and putting them on the bubble? Some upgrades could come in a trade of people on the 40-man. |
|
|
|
Post by juanpena on Oct 20, 2015 19:33:57 GMT -5
I've never seen Williams Jerez pitch, but judging from his writeup here (inconsistent velocity but can hit 95) and his good, not great stats in his first year as a pitcher, I think he needs to be protected.
A team with pennant aspirations drafted a righty in Jason Garcia, who had never pitched above Greenville. Jerez pitched two levels higher than that this year, and has potential to improve, especially because he's so new to pitching as a pro and is left-handed. A contender might take a shot on him, and a team building for 2017 or beyond could definitely snap him up and give him a chance to learn on the job.
Lefty relievers seem fungible, but sometimes you really have trouble finding them, and you have to send out a cooked Craig Breslow for 65 innings.
|
|
|
|
Post by soxcentral on Oct 20, 2015 20:58:13 GMT -5
I'd also keep Jerez due to the seemingly rapid nature of his development as a pitcher.
Would also add Light, Hernandez, Margot, and Ramos as our OF depth is quite thin.
Amfox, you are keeping all three of Machi, Mendez, and Ogando?
|
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Oct 20, 2015 23:35:20 GMT -5
Amfox, you are keeping all three of Machi, Mendez, and Ogando? Workman and Varvaro seem clearly better than that lot. |
|
|
|
Post by amfox1 on Oct 21, 2015 7:39:00 GMT -5
Amfox, you are keeping all three of Machi, Mendez, and Ogando? For now. The Red Sox need to clear space first, then make upgrades. Machi and Ogando are both major league pitchers, and relievers' performance vary year-to-year. Mendez has the arm strength DD likes in relievers and therefore could be given a chance to make the club in ST, although he could be a roster casualty over the winter. Varvaro is only on the roster because he was hurt before he was released, and my guess is that the Red Sox have tacitly agreed to let him be a FA. Workman is not the pitcher he was, and I don't see DD having any burning desire to keep him on the roster. As for Jerez, I understand the argument for keeping him, and the Red Sox may do so. However, I am not sold on the possibility that he will definitely stick on a major league roster. Yes, Garcia stuck on BAL, but he threw 98+ mph, and BAL probably did itself a disservice by keeping him over other major league options. Jerez doesn't have the same velocity. |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 21, 2015 8:44:10 GMT -5
Jerez doesn't have the same velo as Garcia, but he's got far better pitchability, especially for someone who has been pitching full-time for two seasons.
Yes, part of it is definitely an evaluation of whether he'd stick. But another part of it is whether he'd make it to the majors soon enough that putting him on the 40 was worthwhile. The Red Sox thought they could sneak Garcia through given that he'd missed a lot of time, and they probably would have if Garcia hadn't thrown 10 innings at the O's complex at Instructs last year so that they had video of him. Jerez, on the other hand, seemed to be pretty clearly being evaluated for addition to the 40-man, based on his rapid rise from Greenville to Portland, imo. If you think he might be up and able to help the club this year, I don't see the harm in adding him to the 40. I think a better comp than Garcia is determining whether he's a Josh Fields/Ryan Pressly type.
You can also put me in the camp that doesn't want to let Workman go quite yet, unless it's with the understanding he'd re-sign a minor league deal for similar money.
|
|
|
|
Post by brianthetaoist on Oct 21, 2015 9:09:41 GMT -5
Amfox, you are keeping all three of Machi, Mendez, and Ogando? For now. The Red Sox need to clear space first, then make upgrades. Machi and Ogando are both major league pitchers, and relievers' performance vary year-to-year. Mendez has the arm strength DD likes in relievers and therefore could be given a chance to make the club in ST, although he could be a roster casualty over the winter. Varvaro is only on the roster because he was hurt before he was released, and my guess is that the Red Sox have tacitly agreed to let him be a FA. Workman is not the pitcher he was, and I don't see DD having any burning desire to keep him on the roster. As for Jerez, I understand the argument for keeping him, and the Red Sox may do so. However, I am not sold on the possibility that he will definitely stick on a major league roster. Yes, Garcia stuck on BAL, but he threw 98+ mph, and BAL probably did itself a disservice by keeping him over other major league options. Jerez doesn't have the same velocity. I'd bet significant money that Machi doesn't stay on the 40-man ... he's the very definition of fungible. He'll be 33 years-old next year and was a waiver claim and, afaik, is out of options. Just the options alone make Workman significantly more valuable. I can see Ogando sticking, at least for a while, maybe you take a shot that one more year removed from injury trouble will give him a boost. But Machi was just to get through last season. Mendez is less clear to me, he may stay until the pen is more clear for next year. Varvaro is an interesting case, though. He has some history of success, but we don't know why he was released. Was he released because his stuff was noticeably down, which may have been because of his injury? If so, then I could see the Sox keeping him to see how he recovers. |
|
|
|
Post by amfox1 on Oct 21, 2015 11:41:39 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by gator39 on Oct 21, 2015 12:29:12 GMT -5
I think it would be a mistake to let Workman go. He showed a lot of potential pitching out of the pen 2 years ago.
|
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Oct 21, 2015 12:51:52 GMT -5
I'm not particularly bullish on Workman, but I don't think there is enough or a roster crunch currently to let him go. He shouldn't be a starter, but he deserves an extended look in the bullpen and the flexibility exists that the Red Sox should give it to him. It's worth noting that, despite the fact it seems like he's been around forever, he still has two options remaining. He didn't use one in 2013 and his option was rescinded when he was placed on the DL in 2015. If there was a real squeeze there'd be an argument for letting him go, but not with space remaining on the roster.
I actually feel the same about Ryan Cook. I'd keep him over Varvaro, Machi, and Mendez. He struck out a ton of guys from 2012 to 2014. That said, the Red Sox got a bit of a look at him this year and have a better idea than I would whether his drop-off was something mechanical that can be corrected, an injury, or simple skill erosion.
|
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Oct 21, 2015 15:00:10 GMT -5
Not a reason on its own to keep him but a possible consideration - if Workman picks up an extra 2-4 mph on his FB via the TJ surgery - not guaranteed but happens frequently - he could become a much more effective reliever as his near miss FBs now may induce more swing and misses. Of course this would have to be balanced with his ramp-up and reacquisition of control. Then again, for pen work he really only needs two pitches.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
|
Post by ericmvan on Oct 22, 2015 13:30:20 GMT -5
Depending on whether you are adding Jerez or not, you are at 46 or 47 before you start trimming (40 + 5 from the 60-day DL + Margot, Hernandez, Light, - Breslow, Hill FA).
The trims can be broken down into three groups: trivial / obvious, relatively easy, at least a little reluctant, and if we have to. I'd put it this way (feel free to re-arrange):
Trivial / Obvious
Cook
Varvaro
Leon
Relatively Easy:
Coyle
Brentz
Craig
A Little Reluctant:
Escobar
Mendez
Machi
Ogando
If We Have To:
Workman
Cecchini
Rutledge
I think the main question, then, is which of the 3rd group you first bump to make room for Jerez. I'd say Mendez. Most or all of the others will probably follow as we sign FAs, but as has been pointed out, if we make multi-player deals, that may free up space and allow us to hold onto and take a ST look at one or more of the other three relievers.
We're probably acquiring 4 or 5 players in the offseason. It's very unlikely that they'll all be FA's, so it seems unlikely that we'll need to decide on who to keep from the last group.
Nevertheless, in the long term, you do want to rank the last 7 guys in order of expendability. I'd go Mendez, Ogando, Machi, Escobar, Rutledge, Cecchini, Workman.
Edit: Another reason you have that list is because, at any time in the post-season you may want to claim someone on waivers and DFA the guy who's currently at the top.
|
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 22, 2015 13:58:30 GMT -5
Hate asking this question, but can someone please educate me on the Allen Craig dollars owe to him. This last season we were fortunate enough to be able to "store" him in Pawtucket, and his big contract did not impact us because he was taken off the 40. If we release him, does all of those dollars owed to him this year count against our CAP?
I would love to alleviate this anchor, but even if we some how traded him and were responsible for 80% of his yearly contract to get rid of him, isn't this still counting on our CAP number?
Also, I am not a Sandy Leon fan, but with questions about Christian Vazquez, might we need him around till Spring Training?
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 22, 2015 15:32:39 GMT -5
Depending on whether you are adding Jerez or not, you are at 46 or 47 before you start trimming (40 + 5 from the 60-day DL + Margot, Hernandez, Light, - Breslow, Hill FA). The trims can be broken down into three groups: trivial / obvious, relatively easy, at least a little reluctant, and if we have to. I'd put it this way (feel free to re-arrange): Trivial / Obvious
Cook Varvaro Leon Relatively Easy:
Coyle Brentz Craig A Little Reluctant:
Escobar Mendez Machi Ogando If We Have To:
Workman Cecchini Rutledge I think the main question, then, is which of the 3rd group you first bump to make room for Jerez. I'd say Mendez. Most or all of the others will probably follow as we sign FAs, but as has been pointed out, if we make multi-player deals, that may free up space and allow us to hold onto and take a ST look at one or more of the other three relievers. We're probably acquiring 4 or 5 players in the offseason. It's very unlikely that they'll all be FA's, so it seems unlikely that we'll need to decide on who to keep from the last group. Nevertheless, in the long term, you do want to rank the last 7 guys in order of expendability. I'd go Mendez, Ogando, Machi, Escobar, Rutledge, Cecchini, Workman. Edit: Another reason you have that list is because, at any time in the post-season you may want to claim someone on waivers and DFA the guy who's currently at the top. Couple thoughts: 1) They need to clear three spots by the end of the WS. I think it's rather plain they're not making any trades of consequence by then. However, it IS entirely possible they swing a deal that alters the 40-man by the time they need to protect Rule 5 guys. 2) Craig really is in the "trivial" category. First, he's already cleared once. Second, if you outright him and he elects FA, being rid of his contract is a good thing. Third, if he's claimed, that's also a good thing. There is no way to justify his contract right now. 3) And this is the point that's easy to forget: it's not whether you would rather have a player on this list or Jerez. It's weighing the chances of Jerez getting selected and sticking versus the chances of a player on this list clearing waivers. For example, it's entirely possible to rather have Jerez than Coyle, but still think the Sox should not protect Jerez and not DFA Coyle if you think it's more likely a team claims Coyle than that a team selects Jerez and he stays up all year. For this reason, I think it may be less likely than you say that Coyle, who still has options, gets DFA'ed, and perhaps a shade more likely that Escobar, who's out of options, does. |
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Oct 22, 2015 15:44:10 GMT -5
I wouldn't necessarily have Varvaro in the "trivial" category. If his struggles over the last year or so were caused by the need for surgery (not TJ; tendon and removal of bone chips), he could well be a keeper (at least initially), especially if, as suggested in this article from June, he's started throwing again and the early returns are promising. Remember, as recently as last year, Varvaro was an above-average major league reliever. I don't know how this works with that weird thing where he got returned by the Cubs, but he might even have an option left since he spent most of the season on the major-league DL. You could make a similar argument with Cook, but he, by all accounts, was healthy all year and was pretty bad both in the majors and the minors. |
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Oct 22, 2015 15:54:28 GMT -5
Hate asking this question, but can someone please educate me on the Allen Craig dollars owe to him. This last season we were fortunate enough to be able to "store" him in Pawtucket, and his big contract did not impact us because he was taken off the 40. If we release him, does all of those dollars owed to him this year count against our CAP?I would love to alleviate this anchor, but even if we some how traded him and were responsible for 80% of his yearly contract to get rid of him, isn't this still counting on our CAP number? Also, I am not a Sandy Leon fan, but with questions about Christian Vazquez, might we need him around till Spring Training? I believe if they DFA Craig and he is outrighted and clears waivers, he wouldn't count against the cap. At that point, they could release him and it still wouldn't count against the cap, but they'd still have to pay him. I wouldn't worry much about Leon, those kinds of catchers are always available. They could probably trade Cecchini for one who has options if they had to. |
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Oct 22, 2015 16:12:38 GMT -5
Considering that Marrero and Hernandez will be on the 40-man next year, I have Rutledge pretty high on my list of guys to DFA. He's a 2B-only guy (maybe he could pick up 3B? but he's not a SS) who has a career -0.8 fWAR/-1.3 bWAR in 1032 major league plate appearances. He turns 27 next year, so despite his power potential, I'm not sure there's much upside left there. If it's a choice between him and a reliever with options, I'm probably taking the reliever.
|
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Oct 22, 2015 16:23:29 GMT -5
My rank order of 40-man candidates is probably as follows (assuming Margot, Hernandez and Light are locks):
Craig
Leon
---------
Cook
Ogando [MLBTR projects him to cost $2.4m in arb next year, which is non-trivial money]
Mendez
Rutledge
Coyle
Brentz
---------
[Jerez]
Escobar
Machi
Varvaro
Cecchini
Workman
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 22, 2015 16:54:04 GMT -5
Hate asking this question, but can someone please educate me on the Allen Craig dollars owe to him. This last season we were fortunate enough to be able to "store" him in Pawtucket, and his big contract did not impact us because he was taken off the 40. If we release him, does all of those dollars owed to him this year count against our CAP?I would love to alleviate this anchor, but even if we some how traded him and were responsible for 80% of his yearly contract to get rid of him, isn't this still counting on our CAP number? Also, I am not a Sandy Leon fan, but with questions about Christian Vazquez, might we need him around till Spring Training? I believe if they DFA Craig and he is outrighted and clears waivers, he wouldn't count against the cap. At that point, they could release him and it still wouldn't count against the cap, but they'd still have to pay him. I wouldn't worry much about Leon, those kinds of catchers are always available. They could probably trade Cecchini for one who has options if they had to. Sox DFA Craig and place him on waivers: Potential outcome #1: A team claims him on waivers. Team assumes the contract. Yay! Potential outcome #2: Craig clears waivers. He elects free agency. This terminates his contract. Yay! Potential outcome #3: Craig clears waivers. He declines to elect for free agency. He is still owed all of the money on his contract, but he no longer counts towards the CBT. This is what will happen when he is DFA'ed to make room for the 60-day DL guys, because it's happened once already. He won't elect free agency because there's NO way he gets anything more than a minor league deal with a ST invite with the way he's hit for two years. As to the other questions raised, yes, if they pay any of his contract in order to trade him, then that counts toward the cap if he's on the 40-man at the time he's traded. That's why he will be placed on waivers first. As for Leon, he already cleared waivers once during the season. And I agree with jimed that he's replacement level, although he's a nice kind of replacement level because all of his value is in his defense at the catcher position. Plus, not sure they need Vazquez insurance quite yet - they still have both Swihart and Hanigan, and I can't see them dealing either while there is still any uncertainty with Vazquez. |
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 22, 2015 20:25:54 GMT -5
Thanks Chris! At this point Craig is definitely a sunk cost, I just didn't want there to be any way he would hurt our cap figure. Sounds good.
Hard to believe a far he has fallen!
|
|
|
