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Qualifying Offer Discussion
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Post by sibbysisti on Nov 2, 2015 10:16:36 GMT -5
Deadline for QOs will be in a few days(11/6 to be exact), followed by players' decision to accept or reject a few days thereafter(11/13). Some interesting names (none Red Sox) on the bubble. Orioles have decisions to make on Wieters and Wei-Yin Chen.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Nov 2, 2015 11:02:17 GMT -5
Deadline for QOs will be in a few days(11/6 to be exact), followed by players' decision to accept or reject a few days thereafter(11/13). Some interesting names (none Red Sox) on the bubble. Orioles have decisions to make on Wieters and Wei-Yin Chen. As I understand it, the clock is ticking and there is some agreement that Dave is likely to make some moves quickly. We know he has won trades in the past, and since his hiring has spoken about the possibility of trading redundant prospects and players to acquire a rotation "horse" and to re-inforce the BP. Some on this board have placed top prospects Guerra, Margot and Owens among the redundant. Others have put them into their "zone of protection" along with Benitenddi, Devers, Espinoza and Moncada. One of my areas of concern is giving up promising young prospects AND going after a player with a QO attached, as this depletes the Farm wihile minimizing an opportunity to add to it, (refresh it) substantially by losing our highest pick, hopefully in a while, in a strong draft, and the additional $$$$ to further enhance the class of 2016. If Dave improves this already good team while strengthening the Farm, he will deserve a cape to enhance his super powers. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 2, 2015 11:33:21 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 2, 2015 11:37:17 GMT -5
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Post by sammo420 on Nov 2, 2015 17:19:39 GMT -5
That above list, if nothing else, proves to me how much these sucktastic sox have affected my love of baseball. There's a lot of names in places I wasn't aware of.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 2, 2015 17:36:43 GMT -5
Before that, he'd reported "The Orioles don't seem to want to give the $15.8 million qualifying offer to Matt Wieters" That seems odd to me. I know his last really good full season was 2012, but in the last two years he's been a 3.0 WAR/650 PA player, and there isn't a lot of catching depth out there. |
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Post by thursty on Nov 2, 2015 18:03:30 GMT -5
Before that, he'd reported "The Orioles don't seem to want to give the $15.8 million qualifying offer to Matt Wieters" That seems odd to me. I know his last really good full season was 2012, but in the last two years he's been a 3.0 WAR/650 PA player, and there isn't a lot of catching depth out there. Olney is tweeting that the Orioles *will* offer Wieters QO |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 2, 2015 18:07:57 GMT -5
Agreed that didn't make sense. I should have more fully said that they don't want to if he'll accept it, because they don't want to pay him that.
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Post by thursty on Nov 2, 2015 18:25:15 GMT -5
Jonathon Broxton's option declined, so he's a FA; throws hard, but has never K'd a lot of guys (similar to M. Lowe)
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 2, 2015 18:53:33 GMT -5
Broxton used to K guys by the bushel - 31.2% from 2005 to 2010. He hasn't been the same pitcher after the elbow/forearm problems, though he's still been generally above average. The Red Sox are pretty set in terms of right-handed relievers who are okay but not great. They're going to have like 26 of those on the 40-man roster.
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Post by thursty on Nov 2, 2015 18:55:46 GMT -5
Not that can reach triple digits
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 2, 2015 19:09:21 GMT -5
Looks like the last time he hit triple digits was 5/3/12. He hit 99 twice this year, but hadn't previously since '12. Pat Light throws harder, and Broxton isn't an upside guy anymore. His results are fine - he'd be good enough to make the team if he were signed, for sure, but he's probably not going to be worth the cost of the upgrade as the #3 righty out of the pen unless something is physically wrong with Tazawa.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Nov 2, 2015 20:50:20 GMT -5
If you're going to have a gaping hole on your team going into an off-season, BP is the place to have it. Unless you're pursuing an elite closer, you really never have to worry about surrendering a draft pick. Middle relievers don't get the QO.
On the list that's posted, I'd look hard at Soria (2.53 ERA, 8.5 k/9, though a xFIP that's higher than the ERA by a run), O'Day (love the 11.3 k/9), and Kelly (11 k/9).
Snag at least one of those and talk to the Nats about Papelgoon, whom I'm sure they're desperate to move. The RS are in a unique position there because they're probably the one team that can take him on without any concerns about how he'll behave. The Nats would probably be willing to eat at least half the money he has coming in 2016 without expecting much in return.
The other nice thing about being aggressive in going for relievers is that even with an overpay (and free agency is almost always an overpay) you don't have to worry about a catastrophic loss. Signing one of the guys I mentioned, for instance, might mean going to three years at $6 million/per instead of two years. Unlike the signings we saw last winter, a bad middle reliever signing doesn't affect a team's ability to obtain talen in the future.
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Post by jmei on Nov 2, 2015 21:14:35 GMT -5
Looks like the last time he hit triple digits was 5/3/12. He hit 99 twice this year, but hadn't previously since '12. Pat Light throws harder, and Broxton isn't an upside guy anymore. His results are fine - he'd be good enough to make the team if he were signed, for sure, but he's probably not going to be worth the cost of the upgrade as the #3 righty out of the pen unless something is physically wrong with Tazawa. I think you're underrating him some. He had a 3.15 SIERA in 2015, which ranks 54th best among qualified relievers, ahead of, among others, Junichi Tazawa and Joakim Soria. I do think he has some upside-- he's only 31, was one of the best relievers in the league when he was younger, and is another year removed from the major injuries which derailed his career. He's not a lock to be a stud, but he's better than your run-of-the-mill righty reliever, and I'd happily take him at a reasonable cost (say, one year and $4m). ADD: I also think you're exaggerating their right-handed reliever depth. Yes, they have a bunch of names, but in my mind, only a couple of them project to be above-average bullpen arms (of the righties, just Uehara and Tazawa). The likes of Hembree, Ogando, Machi, Aro, Ramirez, Varvaro, Cook, etc. are closer to replacement-level than league-average (which is why the guys on that list without options are in the DFA mix). |
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 2, 2015 21:42:43 GMT -5
If you really think he can be had for 1/$4M, I'd be fine with that.
EDIT: For what it's worth, Tazawa's SIERA was 2.75 on 7/31, (before his implosion) which would have put him 33rd. That is in line with his 2012 to 2014 performance.
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Post by thursty on Nov 2, 2015 23:45:26 GMT -5
The Redbirds declined Broxton's 9m option; 4m is probably unrealistic
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 3, 2015 7:27:55 GMT -5
Geez, Lackey giving the Cardinals a supplemental draft pick is just one more kick in the face on how badly they lost that trade. They'll probably draft the next Cy Young with that pick.
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Post by sibbysisti on Nov 3, 2015 8:54:47 GMT -5
It may not be all that bad. Sure, Craig looks like a lost cause. But Kelly came back nicely with eight straight wins after his stint in Pawtucket. He followed advice, throwing inside more and not relying on his FB to blow hitters away.
I, for one, am optimistic that he can stay in a starter's role from here on out. He's still only 27.
Bullpen looks very fixable either from FA or trade, or both.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 3, 2015 8:59:01 GMT -5
I like the thought process in signing 2 (maybe even 3) relievers may be a good way to proceed. NO Qualifying Offers and less risk! KC had no top of the rotation starters and a shut-down bullpen. I've mentioned several times locking up O'Day and I'm fine with bringing in a Madson or Broxton. We could use a lefty in the pen also...maybe Sipp.
I'm like most of you, I want a top of the rotation starter, but not if it hurts us doing other things. Signing a TOR without improving the pen is stupid. If I had to pick one or the other, I think I'd go "pen"!
For the 4th outfielder (and probably a starter) I'd seriously think of Parra. Castillo would be a good 4th IMO. Again....no QO!
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 3, 2015 9:35:35 GMT -5
For what it's worth, folks, let's not make this yet another "here are the things the Red Sox should do this offseason" thread. I know typically we're cool with letting discussion flow as it will, but it looks like this is about to veer into another broad discussion that's happening in a few other places already.
Let's put it this way - if you're about to post something that has nothing to do with a player getting (or not getting) a qualifying offer, then it should go into one of the other threads I'm referring to.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Nov 3, 2015 12:24:52 GMT -5
For what it's worth, folks, let's not make this yet another "here are the things the Red Sox should do this offseason" thread. I know typically we're cool with letting discussion flow as it will, but it looks like this is about to veer into another broad discussion that's happening in a few other places already. Let's put it this way - if you're about to post something that has nothing to do with a player getting (or not getting) a qualifying offer, then it should go into one of the other threads I'm referring to. OK...back to the QO discussion.....I'm sure every team out there will be monitoring the QO's & as soon as the best pitcher that is not offered one, it will be like a shark attack after him (this is not breaking news or anything).....I'm guessing someone like Estrada. It will be interesting though who the bottom guys that are offered a QO, what their market will be like, possibly like Drew & Morales a few years ago? |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 3, 2015 12:37:21 GMT -5
I'm going to guess that the best pitcher not to get a qualifying offer is going to be David Price. Gut feeling.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Nov 3, 2015 13:21:59 GMT -5
I'm going to guess that the best pitcher not to get a qualifying offer is going to be David Price. Gut feeling. Chris, you just said to keep the conversation within the QO parameters which does not include Price & Cueto.....I was only speaking of the bottom 2 or 3 SP who are offered a QO, what their market will look like. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 3, 2015 13:34:56 GMT -5
You took my post way too literally. My point was not to come in here and post 18 moves the Sox should make this offseason without any reference to qualifying offers.
The point you made that I was responding to was that there would be some kind of sudden surge in interest in the best pitcher not given a qualifying offer. I was making the point that doesn't make any sense because there are plenty of better pitchers who can't be given a QO because they were traded.
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Post by sammo420 on Nov 3, 2015 15:48:22 GMT -5
Geez, Lackey giving the Cardinals a supplemental draft pick is just one more kick in the face on how badly they lost that trade. They'll probably draft the next Cy Young with that pick. Yeah, but we never had to watch Lackey give a defender a dirty look when he didn't make the gold glove type play again. You can't put a price tag on that. |
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