Post by ericmvan on Nov 6, 2015 2:38:55 GMT -5
What do people think it would take?
Strasburg is worth a year of his value plus a draft pick. He's been a consistent 3.0 bWAR pitcher, but he's clearly got the talent to throw up a 6.0 or even 7.0 WAR season. He's just never come remotely close due to injuries and inconsistency, which are almost certainly related.
Last year he had a 2.84 SIERA (league-adjusted), the sixth best mark in MLB, but that was 3.86 with a 6.55 ERA in his 10 starts before his first DL stint, and 2.13 with a 1.76 ERA in his 13 subsequent ones. The 2.13 would have led MLB comfortably; Kershaw actually led with 2.30, and Sale was second at 2.52. Strasburg's bWAR/GS ranked 54th, but that was because when he was pitching hurt, his SIERA ceased to be predictive of his ERA, which is to say he legitimately gave up far harder contact (.389 BABIP, 12.2 HR/FB%) than his K%, BB%, and GB% would ordinarily lead to.
Miley's been a consistent 2.0 WAR pitcher, and he's got three years of control left.
On paper, Miley is worth twice as much as Strasburg, and is worth more even if Strasburg steps it up reasonably and puts up a 5.0 WAR year. Guerra is worth way more than a compensation pick. And Papelbon, at his salary and with his antics, probably has negative value, or at least close to nil.
So in theory, the extra guy is nobody. But Strasburg, if he's on the market, is a rare and valuable commodity, and that will drive up his price. But of course, every acquiring team can use the same logic to determine his theoretical value. And we may be the only team willing to take on Papelbon and his contract.
Given how much of a gamble Strasburg will be, how reliable Miley can be expected to be as a contender's 4th or 5th starter, and the unique Papelbon situation, the straight trade doesn't sound so strange. (A lot depends, of course, on how desparate they are to dump Papelbon.) My sense is that one more solid prospect might make it hard for the Nats to resist -- say, Chavis or Basabe. And in fact your opening offer would be something like Miley and Basabe (yes, that sounds silly until you realize that they're probably saying, wow, they'll take Papelbon and they're not asking for cash).
Strasburg is worth a year of his value plus a draft pick. He's been a consistent 3.0 bWAR pitcher, but he's clearly got the talent to throw up a 6.0 or even 7.0 WAR season. He's just never come remotely close due to injuries and inconsistency, which are almost certainly related.
Last year he had a 2.84 SIERA (league-adjusted), the sixth best mark in MLB, but that was 3.86 with a 6.55 ERA in his 10 starts before his first DL stint, and 2.13 with a 1.76 ERA in his 13 subsequent ones. The 2.13 would have led MLB comfortably; Kershaw actually led with 2.30, and Sale was second at 2.52. Strasburg's bWAR/GS ranked 54th, but that was because when he was pitching hurt, his SIERA ceased to be predictive of his ERA, which is to say he legitimately gave up far harder contact (.389 BABIP, 12.2 HR/FB%) than his K%, BB%, and GB% would ordinarily lead to.
Miley's been a consistent 2.0 WAR pitcher, and he's got three years of control left.
On paper, Miley is worth twice as much as Strasburg, and is worth more even if Strasburg steps it up reasonably and puts up a 5.0 WAR year. Guerra is worth way more than a compensation pick. And Papelbon, at his salary and with his antics, probably has negative value, or at least close to nil.
So in theory, the extra guy is nobody. But Strasburg, if he's on the market, is a rare and valuable commodity, and that will drive up his price. But of course, every acquiring team can use the same logic to determine his theoretical value. And we may be the only team willing to take on Papelbon and his contract.
Given how much of a gamble Strasburg will be, how reliable Miley can be expected to be as a contender's 4th or 5th starter, and the unique Papelbon situation, the straight trade doesn't sound so strange. (A lot depends, of course, on how desparate they are to dump Papelbon.) My sense is that one more solid prospect might make it hard for the Nats to resist -- say, Chavis or Basabe. And in fact your opening offer would be something like Miley and Basabe (yes, that sounds silly until you realize that they're probably saying, wow, they'll take Papelbon and they're not asking for cash).
