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Choose Your Own Adventure: You're Dave Dombrowski!
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Post by xanderdu on Nov 26, 2015 21:48:56 GMT -5
Happy Thanksgiving to all, and I hope you all enjoyed a wonderful day. OK, things will be percolating soon, so I'm making the case now for Price, and Greinke to be signed this year. 1) But the cost is too high! This is the year to spend. As first time offenders they'll only have to pay 10% on the overage. In 2017, there will either be a much more generous LT, or a new system that allows for higher spending by the big market teams. The Sox spent 70M on international signings the last two years, so clearly they have the budget, but they can't spend that again for 2 years. I say use it in Boston! JH simply detests welfare for billionaires, and that's why he historically doesn't overspend, but all the signs point to that overspend in 2016. 2) But the risk is too great. They might break, or degrade! By signing these two, we get to retain all the prospects. We don't have to trade any kids to find a 2nd reliable starter. In effect, they allow us to retain ERod and Espinoza. If we match up ERod with Greinke, and Espinoza with Price, we see a counterbalance to each ace By the time the vets are fading, they move deeper in the rotation, and the kids ascend. Meanwhile, the kids develop without the pressure to be a #1, or #2. Owens, Johnson and Kopech, and I hope Trey Ball provide additional insurance against the risk. Finally, they seem pretty sure of accepting half the risk in chasing Price anyway; so why not the other guy, who by all accounts is a Red Sox kind of baseball junkie, who happens to pitch really well? 3) But, we'll need that money as the kids enter their arb years! Not really, as illustrated below, with in house replacents: 2016, Papi, Uehara, Tazawa = 40 - Ramirez, Kelly, ? 2017, Buchholz = 13.5 Owens /Johnson/other 2018, Sandoval = 18 Devers or Moncada 2019, Ramirez Porcello = 44 Devers/Moncada, Espinoza 2020, Greinke = 31 ? Arb years (if no trades) 2016 Kelly, Tazawa3 2017 Kelly2, Bogaerts 2018 Kelly3, Bogaerts2, Betts, Bradley, ERod 2019 Bogaerts3, Betts2, Bradley2, ERod2, Shaw The size of the departing salaries lines up well with the arbitration years, with the highest amounts available when the kids are reaching 2nd and 3rd years. 4) But we won't be able to add pieces in future years! Likely, or possible trades to bring new prospect talent, and or draft picks: 2016 Miley, Hanigan 2017 Buchholz?, Castillo?, Sandoval?, Ramirez? 2018 Sandoval, Ramirez? Truth be told, they may not need a lot of outside help from here and may be able to restock more kids. Rosters, by year: Rotation 2016 Greinke, Price, Porcello, Buchholz, ERod 2017 Same, possibly one of Owens/Johnson makes Buchholz a trade piece 2018 Greinke, Price, Porcello, ERod, Espinoza?? 2019 same Lineup, by year, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 C Swihart through all 1B Ramirez, Moncada, Moncada, Moncada 2B Pedroia through all SS Bogaerts through all 3B Sandoval, Sandoval, Devers, Devers LF Castillo, Brnintendi, Benintendi, Benintendi CF Bradley through all RF Betts through all DH Ortiz, Ramirez through rest SUT Holt through all SUT Shaw through all BUC Vazquez through all RHOF ??, could be Castillo through rest Bullpens are a guess, but we know Kimbrel and Kelly are here for the next 3 years. There is youth in that lineup and that provides a surety in that mitigates the risk greatly. I'm all in, I'm hoping DDo, and John Henry are also. Thoughs? Am I crazy?
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 26, 2015 22:01:46 GMT -5
You are not crazy but it won't happen. I'd be all about it though. I'd want this years rotation to be:
Greinke Price Erod Porcello Miley
Trade Buccholz for more bullpen help.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 26, 2015 23:22:51 GMT -5
Happy Thanksgiving to all, and I hope you all enjoyed a wonderful day. OK, things will be percolating soon, so I'm making the case now for Price, and Greinke to be signed this year. 1) But the cost is too high! This is the year to spend. As first time offenders they'll only have to pay 10% on the overage. In 2017, there will either be a much more generous LT, or a new system that allows for higher spending by the big market teams. The Sox spent 70M on international signings the last two years, so clearly they have the budget, but they can't spend that again for 2 years. I say use it in Boston! JH simply detests welfare for billionaires, and that's why he historically doesn't overspend, but all the signs point to that overspend in 2016. 2) But the risk is too great. They might break, or degrade! By signing these two, we get to retain all the prospects. We don't have to trade any kids to find a 2nd reliable starter. In effect, they allow us to retain ERod and Espinoza. If we match up ERod with Greinke, and Espinoza with Price, we see a counterbalance to each ace By the time the vets are fading, they move deeper in the rotation, and the kids ascend. Meanwhile, the kids develop without the pressure to be a #1, or #2. Owens, Johnson and Kopech, and I hope Trey Ball provide additional insurance against the risk. Finally, they seem pretty sure of accepting half the risk in chasing Price anyway; so why not the other guy, who by all accounts is a Red Sox kind of baseball junkie, who happens to pitch really well? 3) But, we'll need that money as the kids enter their arb years! Not really, as illustrated below, with in house replacents: 2016, Papi, Uehara, Tazawa = 40 - Ramirez, Kelly, ? 2017, Buchholz = 13.5 Owens /Johnson/other 2018, Sandoval = 18 Devers or Moncada 2019, Ramirez Porcello = 44 Devers/Moncada, Espinoza 2020, Greinke = 31 ? Arb years (if no trades) 2016 Kelly, Tazawa3 2017 Kelly2, Bogaerts 2018 Kelly3, Bogaerts2, Betts, Bradley, ERod 2019 Bogaerts3, Betts2, Bradley2, ERod2, Shaw The size of the departing salaries lines up well with the arbitration years, with the highest amounts available when the kids are reaching 2nd and 3rd years. 4) But we won't be able to add pieces in future years! Likely, or possible trades to bring new prospect talent, and or draft picks: 2016 Miley, Hanigan 2017 Buchholz?, Castillo?, Sandoval?, Ramirez? 2018 Sandoval, Ramirez? Truth be told, they may not need a lot of outside help from here and may be able to restock more kids. Rosters, by year: Rotation 2016 Greinke, Price, Porcello, Buchholz, ERod 2017 Same, possibly one of Owens/Johnson makes Buchholz a trade piece 2018 Greinke, Price, Porcello, ERod, Espinoza?? 2019 same Lineup, by year, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 C Swihart through all 1B Ramirez, Moncada, Moncada, Moncada 2B Pedroia through all SS Bogaerts through all 3B Sandoval, Sandoval, Devers, Devers LF Castillo, Brnintendi, Benintendi, Benintendi CF Bradley through all RF Betts through all DH Ortiz, Ramirez through rest SUT Holt through all SUT Shaw through all BUC Vazquez through all RHOF ??, could be Castillo through rest Bullpens are a guess, but we know Kimbrel and Kelly are here for the next 3 years. There is youth in that lineup and that provides a surety in that mitigates the risk greatly. I'm all in, I'm hoping DDo, and John Henry are also. Thoughs? Am I crazy? Two things. First, they're not going to have two 30 million/year long-term pitcher contracts. That would kill any future financial flexibility down the road. Second, I doubt Moncada winds up at 1b. I would say it's going to be Ramirez in 2016 and Sam Travis from 2017 thru 2019 and Moncada will probably replace Sandoval when he's ready or wind up in the outfield if JBJ or Benintendi doesn't perform or gets dealt. Devers could wind up at 1b or DH down the road if he doesn't wind up at 3b. I'd also be surprised if Hanley's option was picked up for 2019. Don't think the Sox will spend $22 million/year on a DH if they don't have to at that point.
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Post by xanderdu on Nov 26, 2015 23:35:13 GMT -5
Happy Thanksgiving to all, and I hope you all enjoyed a wonderful day. OK, things will be percolating soon, so I'm making the case now for Price, and Greinke to be signed this year. 1) But the cost is too high! This is the year to spend. As first time offenders they'll only have to pay 10% on the overage. In 2017, there will either be a much more generous LT, or a new system that allows for higher spending by the big market teams. The Sox spent 70M on international signings the last two years, so clearly they have the budget, but they can't spend that again for 2 years. I say use it in Boston! JH simply detests welfare for billionaires, and that's why he historically doesn't overspend, but all the signs point to that overspend in 2016. 2) But the risk is too great. They might break, or degrade! By signing these two, we get to retain all the prospects. We don't have to trade any kids to find a 2nd reliable starter. In effect, they allow us to retain ERod and Espinoza. If we match up ERod with Greinke, and Espinoza with Price, we see a counterbalance to each ace By the time the vets are fading, they move deeper in the rotation, and the kids ascend. Meanwhile, the kids develop without the pressure to be a #1, or #2. Owens, Johnson and Kopech, and I hope Trey Ball provide additional insurance against the risk. Finally, they seem pretty sure of accepting half the risk in chasing Price anyway; so why not the other guy, who by all accounts is a Red Sox kind of baseball junkie, who happens to pitch really well? 3) But, we'll need that money as the kids enter their arb years! Not really, as illustrated below, with in house replacents: 2016, Papi, Uehara, Tazawa = 40 - Ramirez, Kelly, ? 2017, Buchholz = 13.5 Owens /Johnson/other 2018, Sandoval = 18 Devers or Moncada 2019, Ramirez Porcello = 44 Devers/Moncada, Espinoza 2020, Greinke = 31 ? Arb years (if no trades) 2016 Kelly, Tazawa3 2017 Kelly2, Bogaerts 2018 Kelly3, Bogaerts2, Betts, Bradley, ERod 2019 Bogaerts3, Betts2, Bradley2, ERod2, Shaw The size of the departing salaries lines up well with the arbitration years, with the highest amounts available when the kids are reaching 2nd and 3rd years. 4) But we won't be able to add pieces in future years! Likely, or possible trades to bring new prospect talent, and or draft picks: 2016 Miley, Hanigan 2017 Buchholz?, Castillo?, Sandoval?, Ramirez? 2018 Sandoval, Ramirez? Truth be told, they may not need a lot of outside help from here and may be able to restock more kids. Rosters, by year: Rotation 2016 Greinke, Price, Porcello, Buchholz, ERod 2017 Same, possibly one of Owens/Johnson makes Buchholz a trade piece 2018 Greinke, Price, Porcello, ERod, Espinoza?? 2019 same Lineup, by year, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 C Swihart through all 1B Ramirez, Moncada, Moncada, Moncada 2B Pedroia through all SS Bogaerts through all 3B Sandoval, Sandoval, Devers, Devers LF Castillo, Brnintendi, Benintendi, Benintendi CF Bradley through all RF Betts through all DH Ortiz, Ramirez through rest SUT Holt through all SUT Shaw through all BUC Vazquez through all RHOF ??, could be Castillo through rest Bullpens are a guess, but we know Kimbrel and Kelly are here for the next 3 years. There is youth in that lineup and that provides a surety in that mitigates the risk greatly. I'm all in, I'm hoping DDo, and John Henry are also. Thoughs? Am I crazy? Two things. First, they're not going to have two 30 million/year long-term pitcher contracts. That would kill any future financial flexibility down the road. Second, I doubt Moncada winds up at 1b. I would say it's going to be Ramirez in 2016 and Sam Travis from 2017 thru 2019 and Moncada will probably replace Sandoval when he's ready or wind up in the outfield if JBJ or Benintendi doesn't perform or gets dealt. Devers could wind up at 1b or DH down the road if he doesn't wind up at 3b. I'd also be surprised if Hanley's option was picked up for 2019. Don't think the Sox will spend $22 million/year on a DH if they don't have to at that point. All those roster possibilities could happen, no doubt. The larger point I was trying to make, you bore out. That being the replacement pieces are likely in the system. And thanks for pointing out the Hanley option. No doubt they buy out there. As for the cost and financial flexibility, I addressed that in the original post and showed that A) They would indeed have the same flexibility they have any other year; and B) with 9 pitchers on the Boston 40 man roster, with Price, Greinke, Buchholz, Porcello, ERod, Kelly, Wright, Owens, and Johnson they really wouldn't go outside themselves for help Those 9 would exist after trading Miley. It bears noting they can use two more option years on Owens and Johnson, while I project Kelly and Wright in the bullpen. By the time Owens and Johnsons options wear out Espinoza should be appearing on the scene. Where and what exactly is the root of your financial flexibility statement?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 26, 2015 23:57:49 GMT -5
Two things. First, they're not going to have two 30 million/year long-term pitcher contracts. That would kill any future financial flexibility down the road. Second, I doubt Moncada winds up at 1b. I would say it's going to be Ramirez in 2016 and Sam Travis from 2017 thru 2019 and Moncada will probably replace Sandoval when he's ready or wind up in the outfield if JBJ or Benintendi doesn't perform or gets dealt. Devers could wind up at 1b or DH down the road if he doesn't wind up at 3b. I'd also be surprised if Hanley's option was picked up for 2019. Don't think the Sox will spend $22 million/year on a DH if they don't have to at that point. All those roster possibilities could happen, no doubt. The larger point I was trying to make, you bore out. That being the replacement pieces are likely in the system. And thanks for pointing out the Hanley option. No doubt they buy out there. As for the cost and financial flexibility, I addressed that in the original post and showed that A) They would indeed have the same flexibility they have any other year; and B) with 9 pitchers on the Boston 40 man roster, with Price, Greinke, Buchholz, Porcello, ERod, Kelly, Wright, Owens, and Johnson they really wouldn't go outside themselves for help Those 9 would exist after trading Miley. It bears noting they can use two more option years on Owens and Johnson, while I project Kelly and Wright in the bullpen. By the time Owens and Johnsons options wear out Espinoza should be appearing on the scene. Where and what exactly is the root of your financial flexibility statement? I'm thinking along the lines if the Sox want to try to extend Mookie Betts for big money or they take a crack at tying up Xander Bogaerts (unlikely as that is), or perhaps Greinke or Price have injuries and/or decline and they're not the same pitchers, and they need to get more pitching because Espinoza and Kopech aren't ready yet. What if Otani from Japan becomes available? Would the Sox be able to have a viable bid? What if JBJ didn't hit enough to merit playing everyday and the Sox needed to have money for an expensive corner OF for 2017 with Big Papi gone? Some of those things will never come to fruition, or there may be other things that do that we haven't anticipated. It's a huge risk for the Sox to tie up that much money in one free agent pitcher, but it's one the Sox need to take, but to make two of those risks? I just don't see the Sox tying up that much money on two guys like that, and taking that many risks.
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Post by larrycook on Nov 26, 2015 23:59:19 GMT -5
I really can not see giving up the 12 th pick in the draft for grienke.
However I do agree that dombrowski is going all out for price.
The second ace will come from trading prospects and fringe major leaguers.
At this point, Cleveland makes the most sense as a trading partner, since sale, gray, Fernandez and any mets pitcher is probably not being moved.
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Post by xanderdu on Nov 27, 2015 0:00:47 GMT -5
For the sake of clarity, the salary projections by year
2016 Rotation 31, 31, 13, 22, .5 total = 97.5 Bullpen 10, 9, 5, 3, .5, .5, .5 total = 28.5 Lineup with Hanigan 3, 22, 13.65, .75, 18, 10.6, .5, .5, 16 total = 85
2016 total = 211, or 22M over the LT line, a 2.2M penalty
2017 Rotation 31, 31, 13.5, 22, .5 total = 98 Bullpen 10, 6, 4.5, .5, .5, .5, .5 total = 22.5 Lineup .5, .5, 13.65, 3.5, 18, 10.6, .5, .5, 22 total = 60.75 Total 2017 = 181.25M
2018, assuming two of Benintendi, Moncada and Devers have displaced Sandoval and Castillo, who were dealt for prospects Rotation 31, 31, 22, .5, .5 total = 85 Bullpen 10, 6, 5.5, .5, .5, .5, .5 total = 23.5 Lineup .5, .5, 13.65, 8.5, .5, .5, 3.5, 3.5, 22 total = 53.15 Total 161.65M
Keep in mind, the LT threshold is expected to increase greatly starting in 2017. I also know benefits and the remainder of the 40 man must be accounted for, but at the projected values, that should easily fit under future LT levels.
I'm seeing the signing of these guys as adding financial flexibility by allowing the team to fully develop kids, as opposed to dealing them. There needs outside of their own organization would be modest.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 27, 2015 0:08:21 GMT -5
I really can not see giving up the 12 th pick in the draft for grienke. However I do agree that dombrowski is going all out for price. The second ace will come from trading prospects and fringe major leaguers. At this point, Cleveland makes the most sense as a trading partner, since sale, gray, Fernandez and any mets pitcher is probably not being moved. I think Greinke would be somebody that DDo would give up the 12th pick in the draft for. I don't know that any other FA would be worth that, though. Don't think they're trading for another "ace" though. Can't imagine they'd want to deplete their farm system further. Buchholz is capable of pitching like an ace for stretches of time, and DDo has already gone on record saying that he thinks E-Rod can be an ace.
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Post by xanderdu on Nov 27, 2015 0:29:23 GMT -5
I really can not see giving up the 12 th pick in the draft for grienke. However I do agree that dombrowski is going all out for price. The second ace will come from trading prospects and fringe major leaguers. At this point, Cleveland makes the most sense as a trading partner, since sale, gray, Fernandez and any mets pitcher is probably not being moved. I think Greinke would be somebody that DDo would give up the 12th pick in the draft for. I don't know that any other FA would be worth that, though. Don't think they're trading for another "ace" though. Can't imagine they'd want to deplete their farm system further. Buchholz is capable of pitching like an ace for stretches of time, and DDo has already gone on record saying that he thinks E-Rod can be an ace. Concur with this. I've been looking at possible trades, but none that don't hurt the franchise dearly have appeared. Not for a 1, or high 2 guy anyway. They are set up to where their future excess should drive more prospects into the system through trades. What's nice about gaining kids via trade is you target the type of player you want, as opposed to simply grabbing the best player on your board. Trading a pitcher this year, and Hanigan adds two, or three pieces, depending on who is dealt. Next year could see others dealt as kids push veterans. Could Benintendi and Moncada make Sandoval and Castillo expendable, but now with restored value? If they are at their value, they return nice pieces, with only 2, and 3 years remaining on their deals. I'm seeing this as the new market efficiency to gain prospects. They are surely going to close the loopholes that allowed the Sox to gobble up Devers, Espinoza and Guerra. They are also likely to start penalizing players, or draft picks for future transgressions. The only way to gain more high value prospects that your competition will be by trading prime talent for future gain. Sox are primed for that coming reality. It's also part of the reason I think they need to sign two elite starters.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 27, 2015 7:19:31 GMT -5
I'd be shocked if they got more than one starting pitcher and a 4th outfielder.
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Post by jmei on Nov 27, 2015 10:17:51 GMT -5
A few things:
-They were over the luxury tax threshold last year, so they'll be paying repeater tax increases in 2016 and beyond.
-As far as I can tell, you're not accounting for bench players, player benefits, 40-man optioned players, and in-season trades in your salary projections. That adds somewhere in the range of $20m per year in luxury tax-calculated salary.
-You cannot project out two or three years and assume that all your prospects will be able to adequately fill starting spots in their first year or two in the majors and that all your veterans will stay healthy and productive enough to keep their starting spots (or, in the case of Sandoval and Ramirez, play well enough to be traded without eating any salary). If any players need to be replaced, you've left yourself with very little open payroll to replace them.
-It's easy to just assume that Henry would be OK with running up a $250m+ payroll next year (plus resultant tax penalties), but I find that unlikely.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 27, 2015 11:46:21 GMT -5
I'd be shocked if they got more than one starting pitcher and a 4th outfielder. I would be in shocked if that's all we did. We have a add a few bullpen arms
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Post by sox fan in nc on Nov 27, 2015 12:15:50 GMT -5
You are not crazy but it won't happen. I'd be all about it though. I'd want this years rotation to be: Greinke Price Erod Porcello Miley Trade Buccholz for more bullpen help. This looks eerily similar to 2009 when the NYY basically bought a world series win by signing arguably the 2 best SP FA that offseason in CC & Burnett & ALSO adding Texeira. That was also following a poor season by not making the playoffs. That's like us signing Price, Greinke and Heyward. Worked out well that 1st year, but crippled them for years to come afterwards.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 27, 2015 12:22:08 GMT -5
You are not crazy but it won't happen. I'd be all about it though. I'd want this years rotation to be: Greinke Price Erod Porcello Miley Trade Buccholz for more bullpen help. This looks eerily similar to 2009 when the NYY basically bought a world series win by signing arguably the 2 best SP FA that offseason in CC & Burnett & ALSO adding Texeira. That was also following a poor season by not making the playoffs. That's like us signing Price, Greinke and Heyward. Worked out well that 1st year, but crippled them for years to come afterwards. Very true but the Yankees at that time had no real young cornerstones and a crappy farm system. Major difference. The Sox are in a prime position to spend big on veterans because of their young core players and the strength of their system. Not saying they should buy those things make it a lot less risky.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Nov 27, 2015 13:19:26 GMT -5
This looks eerily similar to 2009 when the NYY basically bought a world series win by signing arguably the 2 best SP FA that offseason in CC & Burnett & ALSO adding Texeira. That was also following a poor season by not making the playoffs. That's like us signing Price, Greinke and Heyward. Worked out well that 1st year, but crippled them for years to come afterwards. Very true but the Yankees at that time had no real young cornerstones and a crappy farm system. Major difference. The Sox are in a prime position to spend big on veterans because of their young core players and the strength of their system. Not saying they should buy those things make it a lot less risky. Good point. If we overpay for Price, which is what I think we will, it will take, Probably 7/230, hopefully Espinoza/Kopech can offset those last 3 years of meh performance.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 27, 2015 13:37:55 GMT -5
I'd be shocked if they got more than one starting pitcher and a 4th outfielder. I think they'll grab another bullpen arm, not a high price one though.
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Post by xanderdu on Nov 27, 2015 16:31:48 GMT -5
Lot of discussion on SoSH regarding the use of opt out options in any premier FA deal. Basically load up the early years and taper off to lesser value in later years.
33, 33, 33, opt out, 30, 30, opt out, 29, 29 would be the 7 year plan. Its a 7/217 deal. Opt outs after 3, and 5 years
For Greinke, it would look like:
32, 32, 31, opt out, 30, 30 for a 5/155 deal. Price could shop himself again at 33, and 35, while Greinke could do so at 35. Thoughts?
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Post by PedroKsBambino on Nov 27, 2015 16:45:05 GMT -5
I wouldn't mind an opt out after 5 years on a 7 year deal. Something like 7/220 with an opt out. I think Price will pitch at an ace level for at least the next 5 years then he can decide to cash in after that or not. Seems fair for both sides
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Post by xanderdu on Nov 27, 2015 18:35:40 GMT -5
I wouldn't mind an opt out after 5 years on a 7 year deal. Something like 7/220 with an opt out. I think Price will pitch at an ace level for at least the next 5 years then he can decide to cash in after that or not. Seems fair for both sides Agreed! The narrative on opt outs is it's always favorable to the player. I get that and mostly agree, but if the pitcher has earned his paycheck, and therefore positioned himself to consider opting out, then it's been a fair deal for both sides to that point. The team may have been grooming a stud to arrive at the time of the opt out, and if so, gets to decide which direction it prefers. Flexibility on both sides! With the Commissioner projectng baseball to become a $15B industry, from its present $8B, there's no reason to not include these clauses in long term deals. Revenue, and salaries will continue to expand.
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Post by xanderdu on Nov 28, 2015 0:24:15 GMT -5
A few things: -They were over the luxury tax threshold last year, so they'll be paying repeater tax increases in 2016 and beyond. -As far as I can tell, you're not accounting for bench players, player benefits, 40-man optioned players, and in-season trades in your salary projections. That adds somewhere in the range of $20m per year in luxury tax-calculated salary. -You cannot project out two or three years and assume that all your prospects will be able to adequately fill starting spots in their first year or two in the majors and that all your veterans will stay healthy and productive enough to keep their starting spots (or, in the case of Sandoval and Ramirez, play well enough to be traded without eating any salary). If any players need to be replaced, you've left yourself with very little open payroll to replace them. -It's easy to just assume that Henry would be OK with running up a $250m+ payroll next year (plus resultant tax penalties), but I find that unlikely. I hadn't seen anywhere that confirmed the 2015 overage. I was working from the assumption they had returned to below the line with their late season moves. That single fact renders this moot. I can only ever forsee JH paying one time, and even then doing so while gritting his teeth. I was further assuming an increase in the LT level to somewhere in the 205 range for 2017. At that value, there would be room for benefit, and 26 through 40, plus in season moves starting in 2017. As for big ticket roster pieces, I looked at them going full term on their contracts as worst case scenario. There could always be a trade, and if so, that only brightens the financial picture. But back to the original paragraph. If they exceeded the LT level in 2015, that was poor planning on their part, and wipes out my suggestion. All that said, signing Price alone will place them into 2nd year offender status. This can't make JH happy, having to pay that after another last place finish. Almost makes me wonder, why not just go with what they have?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 28, 2015 1:25:57 GMT -5
A few things: -They were over the luxury tax threshold last year, so they'll be paying repeater tax increases in 2016 and beyond. -As far as I can tell, you're not accounting for bench players, player benefits, 40-man optioned players, and in-season trades in your salary projections. That adds somewhere in the range of $20m per year in luxury tax-calculated salary. -You cannot project out two or three years and assume that all your prospects will be able to adequately fill starting spots in their first year or two in the majors and that all your veterans will stay healthy and productive enough to keep their starting spots (or, in the case of Sandoval and Ramirez, play well enough to be traded without eating any salary). If any players need to be replaced, you've left yourself with very little open payroll to replace them. -It's easy to just assume that Henry would be OK with running up a $250m+ payroll next year (plus resultant tax penalties), but I find that unlikely. I hadn't seen anywhere that confirmed the 2015 overage. I was working from the assumption they had returned to below the line with their late season moves. That single fact renders this moot. I can only ever forsee JH paying one time, and even then doing so while gritting his teeth. I was further assuming an increase in the LT level to somewhere in the 205 range for 2017. At that value, there would be room for benefit, and 26 through 40, plus in season moves starting in 2017. As for big ticket roster pieces, I looked at them going full term on their contracts as worst case scenario. There could always be a trade, and if so, that only brightens the financial picture. But back to the original paragraph. If they exceeded the LT level in 2015, that was poor planning on their part, and wipes out my suggestion. All that said, signing Price alone will place them into 2nd year offender status. This can't make JH happy, having to pay that after another last place finish. Almost makes me wonder, why not just go with what they have? They want to make the post-season and they need a top of the line starter who can give them quality and quantity in innings. They're not going to get far with a bunch of mid rotation to backend starters. After finishing last 3 out of 4 years, the Sox not only want to get out of the basement but be a legit threat to win the World Series, especially in Ortiz's final season. Sometimes to make money you have to spend money and I think that's the case here.
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Post by blizzards39 on Nov 28, 2015 1:39:35 GMT -5
You are not crazy but it won't happen. I'd be all about it though. I'd want this years rotation to be: Greinke Price Erod Porcello Miley Trade Buccholz for more bullpen help. This looks eerily similar to 2009 when the NYY basically bought a world series win by signing arguably the 2 best SP FA that offseason in CC & Burnett & ALSO adding Texeira. That was also following a poor season by not making the playoffs. That's like us signing Price, Greinke and Heyward. Worked out well that 1st year, but crippled them for years to come afterwards. Actually turned out pretty good for MFY. Had they just walked away on CC when he opted out then it woulda been great. I'd take a mass signing and if we can't get price(witch is what I want), I think we try greinke and go for an OF. Probably Upton.
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Post by larrycook on Nov 28, 2015 8:59:44 GMT -5
An opt out year for price after year three or four would be perfectly acceptable as far as I am concerned.
We keep Espinoza and kopech away from the trade market and they become our safety net in case price walks.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 29, 2015 4:06:35 GMT -5
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Post by blizzards39 on Nov 29, 2015 4:25:27 GMT -5
3 things I noticed from this list 1-Walmart is crazy profitable 2- Facebook is stupid crazy profitable 3- Ted Rogers/blue jays owner is worth 3 times JH. And owns the stadium and the cable TV Chanel. What if he ever decides to just start spending??
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