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Which FA Starter Would You Sign?
ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 14, 2015 23:04:45 GMT -5
Assume market value. Guys with * cost a pick.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 15, 2015 1:23:37 GMT -5
In a perfect world I offer Price 7 years $210 million although I could see the Dodgers giving him 8 years and $250 million.
My gut is that Price doesn't want the Sox and he prefers either LA or the Cubs.
My #2 choice would probably be Greinke for 5 years $150 million, but the odds are he winds up back with the Dodgers, regardless if LA gets Price or not. He's the only guy I'd be willing to sacrifice the #12 pick in the draft for.
So that leaves the guy I'd realistically sign - if his medicals are proven sound - Johnny Cueto.
I'm not convinced that Cueto is washed up, although he was pretty scary for a stretch.
I think 5 years $125 million or perhaps 6 years $150 million would get you Cueto and he's had a lot of acelike past performances. The big question is what to expect in the future. I think he'll actually age better than people expect as I suspect he'll reinvent his game as he has been doing, but I can understand the hesitancy to sign him by others.
I'd still be willing to take the Cueto gamble and hope that he pitches as well as Lester did with the Sox.
My gut (which is just about always wrong) tells me that Jordan Zimmerman will ultimately be the guy DDO signs, and they'll lose that 12th pick, which wouldn't make me very happy.
I don't think the Shark or Leake or signing Iwakuma and giving up the draft picks are viable alternatives.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 15, 2015 4:38:39 GMT -5
What ^ said. I'm hopeful that Price signs with DD but I'm thinking his preference would be the Cubs.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 15, 2015 8:02:54 GMT -5
Really quite simple. Price by a big margin because of 1) no QO, 2) been dominant in the AL East, 3) he is a lefty, 4) no known physical concern. The 2nd choice is just as easy.....Johnnie Cueto. Less money, no QO, and past track record. No one else is close, although I would have to consider Grienke if he was interested.
I actually like Zimmerman, but he is not strong enough for me to give up the 12th over-all pick for.
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Post by soxfanatic on Nov 15, 2015 8:04:46 GMT -5
I also very much like Samardzija as a buy low option, but I hate giving up the pick for him if he's the only one. He also isn't your sure fire number 1 or 2, but could bounce back nicely as a number 2 or 3 starter.
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Post by Smittyw on Nov 15, 2015 9:22:21 GMT -5
I'd be very happy with Price or Greinke, but Cueto is probably more likely. Hopefully not Zimmermann. Agree that Greinke is the only one really worth giving up a pick for, unless we're also signing a Gordon or Heyward.
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Post by mandelbro on Nov 15, 2015 9:34:24 GMT -5
The only one of the "real aces" that intrigues me is Price. If he's off the table I'm going straight to Kazmir. Assuming his arm hasn't finally fallen off I think he's well suited to pitch in the AL east. Don't think he's any worse here than Zimmerman or Cueto, but he'll presumably come on more favorable terms. He keeps the ball down and locates his pitches. As an aside he'd be a great mentor to our younger pitchers, as a former fireballer who reinvented himself.
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Post by Alonzo on Nov 15, 2015 10:57:08 GMT -5
Assuming money doesn't play a role, I'd take Price. 7/210 - 7/217 would be my highest offer. But it's certainly possible that he gets more than that, especially if someone tags on another year. I can also see something around 8/230.
So Price is the obvious #1, but the #2 and #3 is actually pretty tricky. There is Greinke, older but better than Cueto. But he'd cost us a draft pick/prospect + the slot money.
if worst comes worst, I'd take either of them, but it's definitely a tough decision to make.
Besides the top 3, I wouldn't sign and therefore sacrifice the pick for anyone. Not a huge fan of Zimmermann and Samardzija would have been a prime "buy low" type if it wasn't for the pick. Well, maybe Kazmir, but he's another fringe candidate. He would come without compensation, but is he much better than the pitcher he would replace in the rotation? I'd rather stay away, his peripherals don't look great.
Fact is: we have to get one of the big 3, otherwise someone needs to be fired for bringing in a shutdown closer who won't have many games to close.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Nov 15, 2015 11:15:14 GMT -5
I can live with Cueto as long as it's not my money. I'd prefer Price or Grienke. But, 3/4 last place finishes makes billionaires impatient. They don't have to wait to get something. Like saving for a new car. Just write the check.
I'm not going to evaluate Cueto over such a small sample size because of his track record. He pitched in a much more difficult park than Fenway. 3 other hitting parks in that division too; Wrigley, Milwaukee and St. Louis. I think he'll be good for 2-3 years, who knows after that.
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Post by bigpapismangosalsa on Nov 15, 2015 11:36:49 GMT -5
If it were up to me, I'd sign two. Personally, I think Price is easily the best of the bunch, and has the fewest question marks, which is why he'd pretty easily be the most expensive. 7yrs at $31M per is too high of a cost in terms of years and dollars, so I think that's out the window.
The next one up for me is Johnny Cueto. Yes, he had some transition issues to a new team, but taking 20 starts or so to fit in to a new team is not unusual (Beckett, Lackey and Pocello all had this issue, for instance). Overall, his career numbers in inter-league play (so against the AL) are very good. He has nearly a full season (28 starts) with a 2.68ERA and a 1.101WHIP against the American League, which leads me to believe he would still be a very good pitcher in the AL East. If his medicals check out, and we can get him at the 5yr at $23M per that MLBTR suggests, I'm on board.
THEN I would also sign Jordan Zimmermann. While he will be 30 next season, he has only 1100ip on his arm (or about 500ip less than Lester did last year at 1600ip), so in "innings" he's really only about 27 or 28. He had a (for him) down year last season, and I think that will keep him out of the huge deals that set the market this year. Similarly, in 24 starts against the AL, he has a very good 3.05ERA and a 1.210WHIP; getting him at the projected 6 yrs and $21M is a very nice deal in my opinion.
I don't want to hijack this thread with the numbers and other moves, but trust me, I have a plan as to how you do this within the limitations of the luxury tax as calculated by Speier going into the off-season and the move to acquire Kimbrel. If this is the thread for me to explain it, I will, but suffice it to say my rotation going into the year would be Cueto, Zimmermann, Porcello, Rodriguez and one of Kelly, Owens, Wright or Johnson with the remaining three in Pawtucket providing depth - or in Wright's case the 'pen since I believe he is out of options.
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Post by Guidas on Nov 15, 2015 11:48:56 GMT -5
Greinke if I can get him for 5 or fewer years. I think the farm is still strong enough to absorb the #12 pick loss. Figure he will be about $25-26M a year. Love to see if he could defer a few mil a year like Scherzer did.
Price is my back-up to this, but he cost you 7 years min. Not sure if those dollars at the other end will off-set the loss of a pick, plus two more years absorbing a $27M salary. So there will have to be an institutional commitment that will be the equivalent of a python swallowing a pony.
The only guys remaining who interest me at the money they will likely get as a possible second purchase would be Hill and Kazmir. Then you're prob talking about trading Miley or Kelly.
Also remember that next year the starter class is much more diluted, though the Strasberg looms large.
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Post by humanbeingbean on Nov 15, 2015 12:21:59 GMT -5
Greinke if I can get him for 5 or fewer years. I think the farm is still strong enough to absorb the #12 pick loss. Figure he will be about $25-26M a year. Love to see if he could defer a few mil a year like Scherzer did. Price is my back-up to this, but he cost you 7 years min. Not sure if those dollars at the other end will off-set the loss of a pick, plus two more years absorbing a $27M salary. So there will have to be an institutional commitment that will be the equivalent of a python swallowing a pony. The only guys remaining who interest me at the money they will likely get as a possible second purchase would be Hill and Kazmir. Then you're prob talking about trading Miley or Kelly. Also remember that next year the starter class is much more diluted, though the Strasberg looms large. You think Greinke's only getting 25-26 per? Seems like everyone else assumes he'll make at least 30. That's a big difference.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 15, 2015 12:29:19 GMT -5
Greinke if I can get him for 5 or fewer years. I think the farm is still strong enough to absorb the #12 pick loss. Figure he will be about $25-26M a year. Love to see if he could defer a few mil a year like Scherzer did. Price is my back-up to this, but he cost you 7 years min. Not sure if those dollars at the other end will off-set the loss of a pick, plus two more years absorbing a $27M salary. So there will have to be an institutional commitment that will be the equivalent of a python swallowing a pony. The only guys remaining who interest me at the money they will likely get as a possible second purchase would be Hill and Kazmir. Then you're prob talking about trading Miley or Kelly. Also remember that next year the starter class is much more diluted, though the Strasberg looms large. You think Greinke's only getting 25-26 per? Seems like everyone else assumes he'll make at least 30. That's a big difference. I concur. He wouldn't have opted out if he was satisfied with that money. I'm sure he's looking around saying I'm every bit as good as my teammate Kershaw who gets $30 million/year. Odds are Greinke will win the Cy Young Award this year (over his teammate) so I'm sure that enters his thinking. He will get 5 or 6 years at about $30 - $31 million/year.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 15, 2015 12:55:58 GMT -5
Greinke won't get that AAV at his age even for 5 years.
And I also doubt Price gets $250M. I see 7/210 tops.
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 15, 2015 12:57:46 GMT -5
As with most, I think Price is the choice, but I also feel he will go elsewhere. I hope I'm wrong. Grienke would be great, I think he will go elsewhere too. Of the rest Cuato is the best option. Maybe if the other pitchers didn't have a pick attached to them we could debate a bit, but because of the pick, I have to go with Cuato over Zimmerman, Shark, etc.
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Post by jclmontana on Nov 15, 2015 14:08:26 GMT -5
The oft repeated perception is that Kimbrel will be a wasted acquisition unless the Sox get a top FA starter. But I don't think that is necessarily true. Having a collection of middle of the rotation guys demands a better bullpen then a rotation of top guys (at least if winning is a goal). This is the KC example, more or less.
If you have a mediocre rotation, but a deep, high-quality pen, a manager can take out Joe Kelly, for example, before he sees the 3/4 hitters for the third time early-ish (5-6 inning) in a close game and still reasonably hope for a win and not burnout key guys.
I think the idea that the Sox have to sign one of the available free agents is faulty thinking. If they are all overpriced, need too long of a contract, or otherwise not a good value, then the Sox should not sign anyone. (Random example alert) Not completely black and white, but if Zimmerman is the best option at 5/125, maybe he shouldn't be much of an option.
The Sox could then shift gears and go after another top reliever, maybe O'Day, or (gulp) even make a trade for somebody (Papelbon?) and still have a chance at competing....I know there are obvious holes in this scenario, but if the Sox don't get Greinke or Price, I hope they get decent value in the market, even if that means playing out the string and signing one of the second or third tier pitchers late in the off season, or foregoing a FA pitcher altogether.
Everyone is freaking out about the opportunity cost of giving up so many good prospects in the Kimbrel deal, but another fat FA contract would, I think, leave the sox with little financial flexibility for the next few years (barring another Punto trade). A team needs both financial flexibility and a strong farm to take advantage of a good player becomimg available through a money dump and to cope with unexpected performance drops or injuries.
The scenario laid out above only makes sense if one believes that Porcello, Kelly, and E-Rod are all at least middle of the rotation guys or better, which is too much of a leap for some to accept. I am more comfortable taking the risk of the Sox not getting an arm they need versus the risk they acquire a 20 million/ year clunker and then have Pocello, Sandoval, and Hanley continue to underperform. I think all three will bounce back to one degree or another, but the Sox's contract portfolio is far too risky already without adding a big money contract for anyone with more than the typical FA question marks (Cueto, Zimmerman, Samardzija).
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 17, 2015 17:05:11 GMT -5
For the AAV arguments, the Fangraphs crowdsourced numbers (which are usually a little low) were as follows: Price: 7/196 (28M AAV) Greinke: 6/156 (26M AAV) Cueto: 6/132 (22M AAV) Zimmermann: 6/126 (21M AAV) Samardzija: 4/64 (16M AAV) Leake: 4/56 (14M AAV) Gallardo: 4/56 (14M AAV) Chen: 4/52 (13M AAV) Kazmir: 3/42 (14M AAV) Iwakuma: 3/42 (14M AAV) Kennedy: 3/36 (12M AAV) Happ: 3/33 (11M AAV) Lackey: 2/30 (15M AAV) Latos: 2/22 (11M AAV) Fister: 2/20 (10M AAV) Dickey: 2/20 (10M AAV) Pelfrey: 2/16 (8M AAV) Colon: 1/10 Simon: 1/7 Lincecum: 1/6 Young: 1/6 Guthrie: 1/4 K. Kendrick: 1/3 www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-crowd-the-top-82-free-agents/FWIW, Hill was 1/6 to the degree anyone can pretend he's predictable.
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Post by thursty on Nov 17, 2015 17:15:20 GMT -5
to be precise, the crowd-sourcing has historically undervalued the elite free agents, and overvalued the lesser FAs
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Post by Guidas on Nov 17, 2015 17:16:32 GMT -5
Greinke if I can get him for 5 or fewer years. I think the farm is still strong enough to absorb the #12 pick loss. Figure he will be about $25-26M a year. Love to see if he could defer a few mil a year like Scherzer did. Price is my back-up to this, but he cost you 7 years min. Not sure if those dollars at the other end will off-set the loss of a pick, plus two more years absorbing a $27M salary. So there will have to be an institutional commitment that will be the equivalent of a python swallowing a pony. The only guys remaining who interest me at the money they will likely get as a possible second purchase would be Hill and Kazmir. Then you're prob talking about trading Miley or Kelly. Also remember that next year the starter class is much more diluted, though the Strasberg looms large. You think Greinke's only getting 25-26 per? Seems like everyone else assumes he'll make at least 30. That's a big difference. I do, but I would pay as much as 5 x $30M. I think Price gets something like Scherzer's deal, which is just a few years too long for me.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 17, 2015 17:26:09 GMT -5
to be precise, the crowd-sourcing has historically undervalued the elite free agents, and overvalued the lesser FAs Ah, right. Thanks.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 17, 2015 18:08:37 GMT -5
For the AAV arguments, the Fangraphs crowdsourced numbers (which are usually a little low) were as follows: Price: 7/196 (28M AAV) Greinke: 6/156 (26M AAV) Cueto: 6/132 (22M AAV) Zimmermann: 6/126 (21M AAV) Samardzija: 4/64 (16M AAV) Leake: 4/56 (14M AAV) Gallardo: 4/56 (14M AAV) Chen: 4/52 (13M AAV) Kazmir: 3/42 (14M AAV) Iwakuma: 3/42 (14M AAV) Kennedy: 3/36 (12M AAV) Happ: 3/33 (11M AAV) Lackey: 2/30 (15M AAV) Latos: 2/22 (11M AAV) Fister: 2/20 (10M AAV) Dickey: 2/20 (10M AAV) Pelfrey: 2/16 (8M AAV) Colon: 1/10 Simon: 1/7 Lincecum: 1/6 Young: 1/6 Guthrie: 1/4 K. Kendrick: 1/3 Based on these numbers, the safest bet of the top 4 is Greinke. Price's contract will be so damn big that it could look like Sabathia's in a few years. Cueto carries too many uncertainties, ranging from how inconsistent he was in the AL to his weight. Zimmerman is five years into Tommy John surgery. Among the second tier, only Kazmir interests me, and only mildly at that. Lackey and Fister actually interest me more. Consider, however, that Price is two years younger than Greinke and has about 800 fewer professional innings on his arm (comes down to about 550 fewer innings if you include his 3 years at Vandy). To me, that's a big part of why he's going to get a bigger contract, not just the pick - he's got more left in his arm, in theory.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 17, 2015 18:30:11 GMT -5
Based on these numbers, the safest bet of the top 4 is Greinke. Price's contract will be so damn big that it could look like Sabathia's in a few years. Cueto carries too many uncertainties, ranging from how inconsistent he was in the AL to his weight. Zimmerman is five years into Tommy John surgery. Among the second tier, only Kazmir interests me, and only mildly at that. Lackey and Fister actually interest me more. Consider, however, that Price is two years younger than Greinke and has about 800 fewer professional innings on his arm (comes down to about 550 fewer innings if you include his 3 years at Vandy). To me, that's a big part of why he's going to get a bigger contract, not just the pick - he's got more left in his arm, in theory. It's a plus in Price's column for sure. Then again, it's merely 1 component to a much larger question that involves things like body composition, injury history, and the history of how those innings were accumulated. Greinke's not a max effort guy. Price isn't so much either anymore, but he used to be a fastball pumper. (and I agree Price will get the overall bigger contract, not entirely sure about AAV however.)
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Post by GyIantosca on Nov 17, 2015 21:22:01 GMT -5
I want the whale. Price with no compensation esp. were picking at 12.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Nov 18, 2015 10:15:14 GMT -5
The oft repeated perception is that Kimbrel will be a wasted acquisition unless the Sox get a top FA starter. But I don't think that is necessarily true. Having a collection of middle of the rotation guys demands a better bullpen then a rotation of top guys (at least if winning is a goal). This is the KC example, more or less. If you have a mediocre rotation, but a deep, high-quality pen, a manager can take out Joe Kelly, for example, before he sees the 3/4 hitters for the third time early-ish (5-6 inning) in a close game and still reasonably hope for a win and not burnout key guys. I think the idea that the Sox have to sign one of the available free agents is faulty thinking. If they are all overpriced, need too long of a contract, or otherwise not a good value, then the Sox should not sign anyone. (Random example alert) Not completely black and white, but if Zimmerman is the best option at 5/125, maybe he shouldn't be much of an option. The Sox could then shift gears and go after another top reliever, maybe O'Day, or (gulp) even make a trade for somebody (Papelbon?) and still have a chance at competing....I know there are obvious holes in this scenario, but if the Sox don't get Greinke or Price, I hope they get decent value in the market, even if that means playing out the string and signing one of the second or third tier pitchers late in the off season, or foregoing a FA pitcher altogether. Everyone is freaking out about the opportunity cost of giving up so many good prospects in the Kimbrel deal, but another fat FA contract would, I think, leave the sox with little financial flexibility for the next few years (barring another Punto trade). A team needs both financial flexibility and a strong farm to take advantage of a good player becomimg available through a money dump and to cope with unexpected performance drops or injuries. The scenario laid out above only makes sense if one believes that Porcello, Kelly, and E-Rod are all at least middle of the rotation guys or better, which is too much of a leap for some to accept. I am more comfortable taking the risk of the Sox not getting an arm they need versus the risk they acquire a 20 million/ year clunker and then have Pocello, Sandoval, and Hanley continue to underperform. I think all three will bounce back to one degree or another, but the Sox's contract portfolio is far too risky already without adding a big money contract for anyone with more than the typical FA question marks (Cueto, Zimmerman, Samardzija). I agree with this. I don't want to add another "potential" albatross contract. Obtain O'day or Pap to make us have one of the better BP in the league. Only Grienke knows if he WANTS to come to Boston. If he does, & we don't have to overpay, then great. If we have to overpay, move on. Even with our current rotation, maybe with adding Kazmir to the mix, I think would get us to the playoffs. We also improved defensively since our bad 1st half. Looking at the AL East, it doesn't look as strong as in recent years. NYY are old, Toronto lacks pitching, Balt & TB are depleted. Look at Lester's year, another "TOR" starter, put him in the AL with the DH this past year, I don't think he has a great year. Stay away from anything more than 5 years. I'd go Grienke @ 5/150 & if he takes it great, if not, sign Kazmir & call it a day for the staff.
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Post by jrffam05 on Nov 18, 2015 10:44:35 GMT -5
If the Sox are comfortable having a $200M+ payroll, I'll go with premium, Price. I wouldn't like it though if it restricted us from spending on mid level talent in future years.
I think it's going to be Cueto
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