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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 20, 2015 1:48:15 GMT -5
For the record, I changed from 3 to 4. I was at 3.5 anyways and I see too many alternatives avenues to obtain a starter but see no other avenue to improve our most glaring weakness, our pen by this wide a margin.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 20, 2015 9:53:35 GMT -5
Folks, again, not a discussion thread. There already is one.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 20, 2015 11:28:25 GMT -5
2. If we had a guarantee that Kimbrel's three years would be as good as his 2012-4, it's a 3 bordering on 4, but no way is that guaranteed. If, as seems more likely, he's just excellent (say, 5th best closer in MLB) over the three years, it's a large overpay. We paid for the best closer in MLB, but what we got is a guy who used to be the best closer in MLB and now may well be heading into his mild decline phase; it's as if the decline risk were left out of his evaluation. And there is a very big difference between being THE unbeatable closer and being a guy who is excellent but fallible (an argument which should be Familia to everyone).
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Post by bobrsox on Nov 20, 2015 12:22:20 GMT -5
4 - (actually 3.5 because of the wording, they may not have "won" the trade, but have significantly upgraded the bullpen, and hence the team)
- solid power arm closer slides Taz and Koji to 7th and 8th respectively, upgrading 2015 major weakness.
- still positioned to upgrade front line starter via free agency.
- did not give up talent from MLB core.
- retained solid top of farm (Moncada, Espinoza, Benintendi, Devers)
- current wins (2016) typically valued/costs more than future yield
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 20, 2015 13:49:41 GMT -5
I changed my vote to 4 based on the post Rizdog had. I was wavering between 3 and 4 but could not bring myself to say that the Sox "won" the trade (implying San Diego "lost") which is why I didn't initially select 4. I really think this is a deal where both teams "win" the trade with the Sox getting what they want from Kimbrel without losing the prospects they wanted to lose while the Padres get the prospects they desperately need that certainly aren't blocked for a closer they really don't need. If I don't have to hang myself up on the "win" at an expense of a "loss", then I can pick 4 instead of option 3.
Win-Win. Kimbrel's value was higher to the Sox than the Padres' current value of him and the prospects' values were higher to SD than it was to the Red Sox. It was an overpay but one that I think is worth the gamble given where the Red Sox are.
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Post by libertine on Nov 21, 2015 1:36:03 GMT -5
Voted for 3 but in reality I am more of a 2.5 on this.
Always liked Kimbrel, and always wanted to see him in a Sox uniform. It helps the team by getting an elite closer while giving us what should be good 7th and 8th inning guys in Koji and Taz and goes a long way to start getting the pen sorted out.
But we overpaid big time and could come back to haunt us in the short term (not having the prospects for another deal, for a top of the rotation SP, if we can't sign Greinke or Price) and in the long term (Margot and Guerra could develop into solid major league players).
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 21, 2015 1:37:45 GMT -5
Going to say 2.5. I think we gave up way too much, but we did get an elite closer for 3 years. I just don't think another team could have come close to what we gave up. This trade will look better if Dave is able to sign an ace and it will look worst if he can't and is forced to trade for one or sign a second tier pitcher. I am very torn on this trade because I wanted Dave to trade for Kimbrel or Chapman and he did. But two top 50 prospects and a upside young arm is just a massive amount. I bet one or two good starters get traded for a prospect package less then what we gave up for a closer this offseason. Also how does Dave also throw in Allen? Do the Padres really not make this deal without Allen? I could almost talk myself into liking this trade if Allen wasn't involved. Sure chances are he doesn't make an impact in majors, but there is a chance he becomes a 4/5 starter or high end reliever. For some reason adding Allen really bugs me. It's like Allen takes this from an overpay to a massive overpay, which really doesn't make sense.
In the long run I just hope we win a world series in the next 3 years and Kimbrel plays a big part in it. If we do this is a great trade no matter what Margot, Guerra and Allen become.
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Post by bigpupp on Nov 21, 2015 13:03:12 GMT -5
Didn't see this until too late to vote. I would have been down for a 3 as it was written, but I'm a little higher on the trade than that. 3.446 is where I am to be exact.
My thought is that there are only a few elite players in baseball and Kimbrel is one of them. Kimbrel is also probably the best player we could have got for this exact package, even if he doesn't represent the best WAR value.
My ultimate preference would have been using these players in a larger package for someone like Carrasco but if that wasn't going to happen then so be it; I'll take this deal and be glad we got better.
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Post by orcoaster on Nov 21, 2015 18:37:43 GMT -5
Had I gotten here earlier I'd have voted 5. I don't think DD overpaid, but he did pay top dollar. There was no better bullpen piece available through trade or free agency than Kimbrel. Elite players aren't cheap. They also win championships. He's worth it. There is an opportunity cost to be sure, but the Red Sox still have plenty of resources to get the pieces they need without sacrificing the future.
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