For posterity: rate the Kimbrel trade

I'll start.

I rated this a 2. I think they gave up too much for a relief pitcher, even though Kimbrel is elite and I'm happy they got him.

On the positive side, this was a great way to do a lot to fix the bullpen in one move. I'll also note here that it's entirely possible they sold high on Margot and Guerra, who have holes in their offensive games they need to fix, and Allen, whose ceiling really isn't THAT high for a high school draftee. I'll add that I think the Sox knew full well what they were doing - this wasn't Dombrowski not knowing what he had. Overpaying in itself isn't necessarily a bad thing - I just think they did by too much. Finally, I think the players they gave up were the prospects they could most afford to trade this offseason - if you told me weeks ago that Margot and Guerra were getting dealt this offseason, it wouldn't have surprised me in the least. And the system is still flush with talent - this is still a top 5 system that's even better when you consider all U-25 talent.

On the negative side, I'm convinced they gave up too much. I think that Andrelton Simmons, a player who can provide more value as an elite defensive player who's on the field every day, went for less days before. I think that Dombrowski overpaid by as much as he did in order to get the deal done now, and that perhaps by waiting Preller out could have gotten him to come down a bit. That risks someone else swooping in, sure, but I'm not convinced that this was the lowest offer Preller would take for Kimbrel, who's signed for a reasonable deal but is also still the highest paid RP in the game. I am afraid that later this offseason players will become available that the Sox will wish they still had one or more of these assets to use - they still have the bullets to make any deal they want, and the organization is still flush with prospects and young MLB'ers, but two top 100, or perhaps even top 75, prospects is a big hit for a relief pitcher.

In sum, I think it's a philosophy thing. I think Cherington held too tightly to his trade assets, but I think Dombrowski may swing farther than I would the other way. Not a good trade, but not one that sets the franchise back either.

2.

I agree with what Chris wrote. There will be opportunities between now and July 31 that help this team more than a relief pitcher will and we've limited our ability to capitalize when those opportunities do come up (without having to give away our elite level talent).

I voted #3 because any won/loss assessment at this time
seems premature. I'm happy to get Kimbrel but only time may tell if this is a winner or loser.

Option 2, overpaid, bad trade.

2

It's a bad trade that could work out (but a bad trade still). Chris' comparison to overpaying for an investment that ultimately pays out is one that I've been using with my buddies for a while.

Many seem to think their only 2 types of transactions. Good ones and bad ones (how often do we hear "we'll have to wait a few years to evaluate this move"). It's not true. There are 4:

1. Good trades (or signings or picks) that work out positively
2. Bad trades that work out positively
3. Good trades that work out negatively
4. Bad trades that work out negatively.

Of course, when you look back, you want the first 2 to be the long term outcome of the deals. However, if your GM is consistently making types 1 and 3, your long-term prognosis will be better (even if you take some bad beats along the way - another analogy I've tried to use with my friends).

3. I think Margot and Guerra are the two players I think have the least likelihood of being as good as their rankings suggest. I have major doubts that Guerra sees the majors ever. Margot could be a 750+ OPS CFer with plus defense, or a solid defensive player/pitch runner who can't hit at the corners - there is a lot of variance in his potential career outcomes (while true of all prospects, the variance is higher than many with who will likely be around his consensus top 100 ranking). I don't think Asuje gets more than 100 PAs in the majors, and I doubt Allen logs 30 IP. So, of all the players with good rankings/trade value to trade, this is the group that I think stings the least.

Kimbrel is very good and its good to get very good players.

That said, I recognize that there is a very real opportunity cost and for what I expect was the precieved value, I'd have hopped for more in return that 65 wonderful (high leverage) innings -- again, assuming that I'm not wrong on what the industry view is regarding their value of Margot/Guerra.

2. It was an overpay that will likely hurt them down the road, and puts the crown jewels of the system in jeopardy if they can't fill the rest of their needs (i.e. starting pitching) via free agency.

I gave it a 3. Did they overpay? Yes. But I think they needed a closer badly. Hard to count on Koji being healthy all year. And if he is, they have a great 1-2 with the K brothers. Then Tazawa and others (likely 1 more signing) in setup.

I don't think Margot and Guerra get you a top of the rotation starter - not without other significant pieces. And while they overpaid, I'm not convinced it's by as much as some people think. Not to give DDo blind faith, but he's been around. He's not stupid. If he could have gotten them for a lot less he would have. Looks the Yankees were making a competitive offer. He closed the deal.

I think the addition of Kimbrel has a waterfall effect on the rest of the BP. I think adds to the confidence of the starters and the rest of the BP. Intangibles. It may be only 65 innings, but it'll be 65 crucual and high stress innings. So, I'm ok with this even if we did overpay and in spite of the opportunity cost.

2. Now we choose between overpaying Price/Greinke or losing our best prospects in trade pretty much.

I voted a 2, for most of the reasons of other 2s above, and for the fact that Margot, if not included for a starter either, could've maybe had a nice impact for us late in the year. Who knows if perhaps JBJ or Rusney tapered off, if Manny could've stepped up for us this season.

I guess theoretically it could be worse if Kimbrel wasn't such a great pitcher, but I still voted 1.