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Jackie Bradley Jr. for Jorge Soler
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Post by dcsoxfan on Jan 7, 2016 13:14:12 GMT -5
First, I don't have a strong opinion regarding whether I would rather have five years of JBJ or Soler.
However, when looking objectively at how risk and present vs. future value are valued, JBJ SHOULD have a significantly higher trade value than Jorge Soler. The fact that he probably doesn't is worrisome.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 7, 2016 13:33:19 GMT -5
I think you're overvaluing jbj. No way do the cubs value jbj more than Soler, sorry. It's more that you're overvaluing offense (particularly, offensive potential, since Soler was not very good offensively in the bigs). It's like the Ortiz/Mookie argument over again. JBJ had as many HR, with a substantially better triple slash line, **and** plays much, much better defense, at a premium position. Soler may have a lot more offensive potential, but he hasn't shown it at the MLB level. Defense is nice but JBJ has one month of production and is a threat to become a fourth outfielder in baseball. At the very least Soler is a everyday player, regardless if he's a good defender or not.
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Post by dcsoxfan on Jan 7, 2016 13:36:22 GMT -5
It's more that you're overvaluing offense (particularly, offensive potential, since Soler was not very good offensively in the bigs). It's like the Ortiz/Mookie argument over again. JBJ had as many HR, with a substantially better triple slash line, **and** plays much, much better defense, at a premium position. Soler may have a lot more offensive potential, but he hasn't shown it at the MLB level. Defense is nice but JBJ has one month of production and is a threat to become a fourth outfielder in baseball. At the very least Soler is a everyday player, regardless if he's a good defender or not. Jorge Soler's floor is a lot lower than that. He wasn't an average player last year and isn't projected to be one this year. He carries substantial short-term and long-term risk.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 7, 2016 14:07:34 GMT -5
Defense is nice but JBJ has one month of production and is a threat to become a fourth outfielder in baseball. At the very least Soler is a everyday player, regardless if he's a good defender or not. Jorge Soler's floor is a lot lower than that. He wasn't an average player last year and isn't projected to be one this year. He carries substantial short-term and long-term risk. I think soler is a regular 15-25 homerun hitter. I think a lot of people in the league sees it the same way. Jbj is a 10-15 homerun hitter who might not hit for more than .220 in a full season. Sorry if I'm a gm, I want more than jbj straight up.
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Post by dcsoxfan on Jan 7, 2016 16:51:45 GMT -5
Jorge Soler's floor is a lot lower than that. He wasn't an average player last year and isn't projected to be one this year. He carries substantial short-term and long-term risk. I think soler is a regular 15-25 homerun hitter. I think a lot of people in the league sees it the same way. Jbj is a 10-15 homerun hitter who might not hit for more than .220 in a full season. Sorry if I'm a gm, I want more than jbj straight up. That's not what I'm debating, although Soler with 15-25 home runs may not have much value. What I'm saying is that a player with a pretty solid 2 WAR floor and five years control SHOULD have more market value than Jorge Soler. That doesn't mean one shouldn't trade Bradley for Soler; one could readily believe Soler will be the better player. What I'm puzzled by is the suggestion that the Red Sox, and not the Cubs, are the ones who would have to sweeten the deal.
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Post by telson13 on Jan 7, 2016 17:02:14 GMT -5
It's more that you're overvaluing offense (particularly, offensive potential, since Soler was not very good offensively in the bigs). It's like the Ortiz/Mookie argument over again. JBJ had as many HR, with a substantially better triple slash line, **and** plays much, much better defense, at a premium position. Soler may have a lot more offensive potential, but he hasn't shown it at the MLB level. Defense is nice but JBJ has one month of production and is a threat to become a fourth outfielder in baseball. At the very least Soler is a everyday player, regardless if he's a good defender or not. Not if he produces like he did last year. Go compare their offensive numbers from last year: JBJ's are clearly superior. And when you bring defense into the equation, everything you're saying is the polar antithesis of reason.
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nomar
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Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on Jan 8, 2016 8:46:44 GMT -5
I think their ceilings are Kevin Kiermaier and JD Martinez (this year's version) respectively.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 8, 2016 14:33:58 GMT -5
Just wanted to point out JBJ's .249 ISO last season. Obviously that will be tough to duplicate, but it might indicate his actual offensive ceiling. Both players have had similar disappointing stretches in the majors.
I think JBJ has a super high ceiling with the flashes he has shown as a hitter along with his defense. He still only has 785 major league PAs which isn't enough to fully evaluate him.
More than likely, Soler turns out to be a much better hitter, but there's also a very good chance JBJ is a more valuable player. I bet the Red Sox feel this way as well given DDo's preference for defense and there's no way in hell I'd add more to the deal on the Red Sox' end. If they want more, then have fun watching Soler play for the Cubs.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on Jan 8, 2016 16:03:07 GMT -5
No chance in hell does JBJ ever ISO .240 in any season. That's above his ceiling IMO.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 8, 2016 20:58:43 GMT -5
No chance in hell does JBJ ever ISO .240 in any season. That's above his ceiling IMO. OK, but he just did.
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Post by jmei on Jan 9, 2016 2:23:12 GMT -5
...in 255 PAs, which is a little more than two months of playing time. Hard to see him sustaining anything close to that for a full season.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jan 9, 2016 6:49:36 GMT -5
No chance in hell does JBJ ever ISO .240 in any season. That's above his ceiling IMO. OK, but he just did. We don't need him to have that high an ISO. He's already a defensive whiz. I'd rather see him focus on cutting down his strikeouts, just like X did last year. That was a helluva run he had, but it doesn't seem any where near sustainable
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jan 9, 2016 8:03:20 GMT -5
...in 255 PAs, which is a little more than two months of playing time. Hard to see him sustaining anything close to that for a full season. Probably not, but I think it's reasonable to think that if he did it over a 250 PA season it is his ceiling (~10% likely).
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Post by telson13 on Jan 9, 2016 12:34:57 GMT -5
...in 255 PAs, which is a little more than two months of playing time. Hard to see him sustaining anything close to that for a full season. Probably not, but I think it's reasonable to think that if he did it over a 250 PA season it is his ceiling (~10% likely). Yeah, "ceiling" (10% projection) for JBJ based on a half-season is reasonable. FWIW, he seems to have a very broad spread offensively, with possibly a .280/.400/.520 ceiling, a .250/.340/.450 mean, and a .200/.270/.370 or so floor. BUT, if he approaches that ceiling he's still more valuable than Soler, even if Soler becomes a .320/.400/.600 monster (or his rough ceiling). And Soler's K rate suggests to me that he's going to have a real tough time hitting .320. JBJ may have a similar (slightly lower) K rate, but he's put up a better ISO, walks more, and doesn't need to hit .320 (or even .280) to be valuable. If both play to near their mean projection, JBJ is easily the better player. He's also shown more at the MLB level. I'd prefer that the Sox keep him, see what happens, and develop Benintendi and Moncada as backup.
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Post by telson13 on Jan 9, 2016 12:46:00 GMT -5
Jorge Soler's floor is a lot lower than that. He wasn't an average player last year and isn't projected to be one this year. He carries substantial short-term and long-term risk. I think soler is a regular 15-25 homerun hitter. I think a lot of people in the league sees it the same way. Jbj is a 10-15 homerun hitter who might not hit for more than .220 in a full season. Sorry if I'm a gm, I want more than jbj straight up. I just have no idea where you get these projections from. Are you looking at minor league performance? Or MLB? Both? Because based on what you're saying here, you're entirely willing to ignore all of Soler's MLB results and project him to be a good to excellent MLB hitter based on minor league numbers. At the same time, you seem to completely discount JBJ's stellar minor league hitting record, and his MLB successes last summer, and focus on his MLB failures. Your rationale is completely at odds with itself...there's no internal logic. Beyond that, there is WAY more to baseball than HR and batting average. You're getting hung up on 1978 Topps baseball card stats...that stuff tells only a small fraction of the story of a player's contributions to the team.
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Post by jmei on Jan 9, 2016 13:19:07 GMT -5
FWIW, he seems to have a very broad spread offensively, with possibly a .280/.400/.520 ceiling, a .250/.340/.450 mean, and a .200/.270/.370 or so floor. These are all super, super aggressive power projections. You're projecting a player with a career .164 isolated power in the minors (1400 PAs) and a career .136 ISO in the majors (785 PAs) and who was never particularly known for his power (I don't think I've read a single scouting report which characterized him as having plus power) to have a floor of a .170 ISO, a mean projection of a .200 ISO, and a ceiling of a .240 ISO. That seems like a huge stretch to me (not to mention the fact that that median projection essentially sees Bradley as one of the top 25 or so position players in baseball).
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Post by telson13 on Jan 9, 2016 23:12:36 GMT -5
FWIW, he seems to have a very broad spread offensively, with possibly a .280/.400/.520 ceiling, a .250/.340/.450 mean, and a .200/.270/.370 or so floor. These are all super, super aggressive power projections. You're projecting a player with a career .164 isolated power in the minors (1400 PAs) and a career .136 ISO in the majors (785 PAs) and who was never particularly known for his power (I don't think I've read a single scouting report which characterized him as having plus power) to have a floor of a .170 ISO, a mean projection of a .200 ISO, and a ceiling of a .240 ISO. That seems like a huge stretch to me (not to mention the fact that that median projection essentially sees Bradley as one of the top 25 or so position players in baseball). Yeah, I'm probably overestimating his power, maybe more like .140-.150/.180/.240. Two reasons for that were his MLB performance last year (I think it's reasonable that a half-season is a fair estimate of ceiling), and the aging curve which shows peak power between 26-28 y/o. I also see him hitting a fair number of doubles because of his swing, and Fenway. But yeah, the lower end there is probably too high. I do think his 2b totals will keep his floor projection in the .140-.150 range; despite an atrocious offensive first year his career MLB ISO is still about at my revised floor, and I don't think it's unreasonable to think his floor is more of the same with a slight bump due to maturity. But I agree, I was probably too aggressive. I will say that, given his defense, I do think he's a reasonable bet to be an above-average regular. His ISOD should keep his OBPs about .070 above BA, even with no improvement. And I think there's enough evidence to reasonably predict that he can hit .245-.255. So maybe a more conservative mean would be .250/.330/.420, and that's presuming that he can't hit for average like he did in the minors. Regardless, I think his floor is probably 1.5 WAR, and a reasonable mean gets him in the 3-4 range. Which, given Soler's defense, is why I wouldn't do a straight-up trade. Soler would have to play a corner for the Sox, and I doubt his mean projection at either corner is 3-4 WAR. I think JBJ's downside risk is fairly low, with considerable upside, while Soler has a broader range of outcomes, particularly on the low end, due to his middling defensive value.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 10, 2016 11:20:45 GMT -5
I thought I remembered reports of JBJ adding a huge amount of muscle to his lower half last offseason which he said was the main reason why he was hitting for more power.
A lot of disagreement for a statement with so many clarifiers - "Obviously that will be tough to duplicate, but it might indicate his actual offensive ceiling." I didn't say it was definitely his ceiling and I didn't say he was going to duplicate it. But it does make it incredibly hard to give up on him, especially for a guy who showed similar struggles hitting in the majors and without any major league floor.
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Post by notguilty on Jan 10, 2016 13:03:34 GMT -5
I think soler is a regular 15-25 homerun hitter. I think a lot of people in the league sees it the same way. Jbj is a 10-15 homerun hitter who might not hit for more than .220 in a full season. Sorry if I'm a gm, I want more than jbj straight up. I just have no idea where you get these projections from. Are you looking at minor league performance? Or MLB? Both? Because based on what you're saying here, you're entirely willing to ignore all of Soler's MLB results and project him to be a good to excellent MLB hitter based on minor league numbers. At the same time, you seem to completely discount JBJ's stellar minor league hitting record, and his MLB successes last summer, and focus on his MLB failures. Your rationale is completely at odds with itself...there's no internal logic. Beyond that, there is WAY more to baseball than HR and batting average. You're getting hung up on 1978 Topps baseball card stats...that stuff tells only a small fraction of the story of a player's contributions to the team. Not to talk for Dirty Water, but I think he's basing his projection on..how Soler looks - and I'm being half facetious..You look at Soler, and the guy looks like a baseball beast, like he should be hitting 30-40 home runs minimum. Then you look at the numbers, and they tell you a different story. He reminds me a bit of Ruben Sierra in that sense, or Willy Mo. I used to shudder when those guys came to the plate; then wondered why I ever worried after they struck out, time and time again. Of course, Soler has a bit of time to actually grow into that kind of player. But I can see where one would conflate what the numbers suggest he is, with what he looks like he can be. And if you've watched JBJ over the past two years and see 2015 as a flash in the pan, I can see where you have a preference for the purported Soler upside, JBJ defense be damned. This is a fun debate though. I think both teams (and most fans of both teams) say no to such a trade, but only one team will wonder why they ever said no.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Jan 10, 2016 13:36:27 GMT -5
I suspect that this gap is why a JBJ/Soler trade is highly unlikely. Each team is likely to value its asset higher than the other team.
Now if Hanley looks as though he isn't going to bounce back to what we'd need out of a Papi successor at DH, how about JBJ for Schwarber?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 10, 2016 14:20:21 GMT -5
I suspect that this gap is why a JBJ/Soler trade is highly unlikely. Each team is likely to value its asset higher than the other team. Now if Hanley looks as though he isn't going to bounce back to what we'd need out of a Papi successor at DH, how about JBJ for Schwarber? Schwarber is probably going to be a monster with the bat, cranking out 30 plus homers per year. Can't see Theo giving that up as Bryant/Rizzo/Schwarber make up a powerful middle of the order. I'm sure Theo would give up Baez for Bradley. Don't see the Sox doing that one, although I do believe in time that Baez, if given a full chance, will become a productive hitter.
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Post by telson13 on Jan 10, 2016 19:05:19 GMT -5
Baez is an interesting case. Ludicrous bat speed but atrocious contact. Terrific arm and the ability to play SS. If he's having contact issues due to selling out for power and less so pitch recognition, he could easily make the adjustments to be an excellent MLB SS. But if his problem is recognizing spin, he's pretty much done for. I don't think I'd offer much for him if I were a GM, but I'd certainly hope I could steal him away on a buy-low.
FWIW, I'm on the fence about Schwarber-JBJ. It sounds (and even feels) a little ridiculous, but Schwarber is so bad defensively...if JBJ hits anywhere near his minor league numbers, that's a loss for the Sox. I just can't convince myself that JBJ is a .220/.290/.360 hitter. But Schwarber does look like a 3/4 hitter.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jan 10, 2016 19:13:09 GMT -5
It is a fun exercise to consider this swap, but most of us look at Soler's strikeouts and shudder. IMO his potential is huge, but until he makes more contact on a consistent basis, a team like the Sox may be VERY hesitant to make any move like this.
It just seemed to me, as the perfect swap.
I am more than fine giving Jackie a full year to show what he can do. I bet the staff feels the same way....especially the fly ball pitchers.
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Post by telson13 on Jan 10, 2016 22:42:53 GMT -5
I think my favorite thing about this swap is that's it's probably pretty fair. The question becomes, how much does one value offensive upside (beyond traditional measures), defense, and a high floor? It also incorporates some thinking on team building. For now, I'm on the conservative side, partly because I enjoy watching Bradley Jr in CF. All those juiced-era HR have jaded me to offense. I'm in the mood for pitching and defense.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jan 13, 2016 9:52:56 GMT -5
Obtaining Soler would make sense for an offensive starved 2nd division team that is loaded in another area of need for the Cubs. I can't see Boston or the NYY type team "banking" on Soler to be a solid starter out of the gate. A team like the Phillies or Braves can roll the dice on him.
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