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Jackie Bradley Jr. for Jorge Soler
steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 16, 2015 15:23:25 GMT -5
Joon Lee of Over the Monster had a good article (http://www.overthemonster.com/2015/12/16/10270972/red-sox-outfield-free-agent-trade).
It got me to thinking, never a good idea. Actually when the Cubs signed one Jason Heyward for over $180 mill and I looked at their potential everyday line-up, one thing stood out. Heyward is an adequate center fielder and an outstanding right fielder, and Kyle Schwarber is currently terrible as their left fielder (although I really like his bat).
Having an above-average center fielder for the Cubs is REALLY important with Schwarber needing help, and with Heyward back in right, that new center fielder would be able to concern themselves with worrying more of what goes on to his right. Currently the Cubs have no one who can make this happen.
The Red Sox have 3 center fielders on their 25-man roster. Betts is ticketed for right field.....and is not going anywhere. Castillo is marked for left, and his performance and contract will not permit the kind of return we would like. This leaves us with Jackie. I love Jackie. I would be fine if Jackie plays center for us this year and many years after (if he ever gets consistent with the bat).
If we traded Bradley Jr. for Soler, we could easily move Betts back to center where he is quite comfortable. Jorge Soler is 23 and will be 24 when the season starts. He has potentially outstanding power. He hit 10 homers (29 extra base hits) last year in limited action (366 at-bats) with Chicago last year. His biggest concern is his K's. Jorge struck out 121 times last year! In the minors this was not a big problem. Can he correct this problem? Soler is young, athletic, and a decent outfielder. He smacks with potential and the possibility of being a middle-of-the-order bat.
His minor league stats in 2014 were 62 200 42 68 23 2 15 57 33 48 .340 .432 .700 1.132 (G AB R D T HR RBI BB K AVE OBP SLG OPS)
Chancy? For sure. Worth it? Don't know, but he is so intriguing. We are a perfect match for the Cubbies, but would you do it?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 16, 2015 16:33:15 GMT -5
It's an interesting thought. Not sure I'd do it for this reason: we know JBJ can play outstanding defense in MLB. We're not nearly as certain that Soler can hit. A deal like that, to me, has some upside, but a pretty steep downside. I'm not sure I'd do it. I'd feel like a huge chicken for not doing so though.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 16, 2015 16:36:06 GMT -5
A year ago asking about this trade would get you laughed at. "How fast would the Cubs hang up on you?" Jokes would be flying.
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Post by jmei on Dec 16, 2015 16:58:01 GMT -5
I think I'd do it. His middling defensive/baserunning value and somewhat short track record make him riskier than Bradley, but as recently as a year ago, he was a stud prospect. Yeah, he struck out a lot in the majors last year, but scouts have always been very high on his hit tool, and he should be one of those guys who puts up plus-to-better BABIPs that let him hit for average even with a 25% strikeout rate.
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Post by ramireja on Dec 16, 2015 17:44:41 GMT -5
We probably should have discussed this here in trade proposal sub forum, but a few of us discussed this exact possibility over in the JBJ rumors thread. I think its certainly an interesting proposition, one that could make senses for both teams if Soler looked healthy. |
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Post by telson13 on Dec 16, 2015 18:09:05 GMT -5
Bradley strikes out at a roughly similar rate, but he's a vastly superior fielder and slugged about 60 points higher last year in 100 or so fewer PAs. He also has better on-base skills. Interesting idea...Soler has more offensive upside, but if they both hit their ceilings, I think Bradley would still be more valuable because of his defense. Soler would probably have to hit .320/.380/.550 or so as a COF to be worth what JBJ will be worth in CF hitting .260/.360/.440. I think the odds are in JBJ's favor.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 16, 2015 18:59:09 GMT -5
Trades are supposed to make each team fell some pain. It would be a scary move, but what worries me after 2016 is we lose David Ortiz and it creates a large vacuum. I acknowledge that teams have won and been successful without having a big bopper hitting 4th, but we will need to replace some of that power some how.
I love our farm system, but we are like most organizations....void of big power bats. Yes there are some possibilities coming. Devers especially may be that kind of force, but I sort of see Benitendi and Moncada has guys who will give between 20 and 25 homers....and hopefully a boatload of doubles. That is great, but we've gotten a little spoiled with Papi and Manny.
Certainly ii is hard to project that Jorge Soler will hit 30 plus, but in Fenway he may. The Cubs in their wisdom 2 years ago went above the wisdom of that draft day, passed on the "stud" potential starter, and took a power bat in Kris Bryant. Boy that worked out well. I like our line-up moving forward. I would just like it somewhat more with a guy like Jose Batista in the middle scaring the hell out of the other team. Can Soler be that type of guy? No one knows. No one knew Batista could be either.
Don't get me wrong....I don't know what is the right decision.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Dec 16, 2015 20:13:53 GMT -5
I would trade JBJ for Soler. I don't think the Cubs would though.
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Post by mgoetze on Dec 16, 2015 20:14:03 GMT -5
what worries me after 2016 is we lose David Ortiz and it creates a large vacuum. Well, we have this one other dude on the roster who can hit the ball pretty hard but can't really play any position well... |
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Post by sox fan in nc on Dec 17, 2015 9:00:08 GMT -5
what worries me after 2016 is we lose David Ortiz and it creates a large vacuum. Well, we have this one other dude on the roster who can hit the ball pretty hard but can't really play any position well... If he can just be (his) average self, he will be fine as DH in 2017 & 2018, just have to get thru this year. It's the other corner infielder I'm worried about. |
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Dec 20, 2015 0:15:34 GMT -5
Theo and co. drafted JBJ right?
Could definitely be some interest there. It makes sense in theory for both sides, especially when taking Schwarber's defensive struggles into consideration. Soler could do some damage at Fenway
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 20, 2015 10:39:12 GMT -5
You don't often see a young OF traded for a young OF straight up. It's like this weird scenario where both teams are saying "we like your guy better." Not saying it couldn't happen, it's just a bit rare.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 20, 2015 12:38:50 GMT -5
You don't often see a young OF traded for a young OF straight up. It's like this weird scenario where both teams are saying "we like your guy better." Not saying it couldn't happen, it's just a bit rare. Yeah....it sort of makes too much sense. I started this thread.....and the idea scares me even. I've known and followed Jackie Bradley Jr while in South Carolina (close to Charlotte). He has always come through for the Gamecocks (that is the University of South Carolina mascot....and not something else!). I loved watching his march through our minor league system. I've also cringed at (most of his) hitting lines. I really can see benefits by swapping him for Soler. Soler could be a real weapon offensively. Again....it still scares the blank out of me too. Wonder if Dombrowski ever thinks about a move such as this? Theo? |
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Dec 21, 2015 7:58:21 GMT -5
Theo strikes me as someone who gives a great deal of attention to the defensive aspect of the game: He traded Nomar to get the glove of Cabrera, the bridge year and its run prevention part in signing Beltre and Cameron and shifting Ellsbury...So yeah, I bet he'd be very interested to see if a deal could be worked on to get JBJ, the willingness of DD or the price the Sox asked for is a whole different story.
I prefer keeping JBJ, I like his upside more.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Dec 21, 2015 8:30:16 GMT -5
You don't often see a young OF traded for a young OF straight up. It's like this weird scenario where both teams are saying "we like your guy better." Not saying it couldn't happen, it's just a bit rare. I believe it's more of a team need. Sure they are both gifted athletes with upside. If a team like the Sox need offense & the Cubs need defense, it may make sense to make the move. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 21, 2015 13:43:00 GMT -5
In the past, I might have jumped at a deal to send JBJ to Chicago for Soler. I very badly wanted the Sox to get Soler when he was available to be signed. And I certainly would have been all over that deal in 2014.
Now, I don't think I'd make that trade if I were DDo.
I don't know that JBJ will ever be a reliable hitter. I know that he has long, long bouts where he's terrible. I know that he had a stretch where he hit like a superstar, and I know that he has a positive minor league track record in regards to hitting.
So that gives me hope that JBJ can hit between .240 - .270 with some power - 15 HRs or so - and the Sox can use all the LH power they can get in the future, and some OBP as JBJ is willing to draw walks. And the guy can play amazing defense. He frees Betts up to play RF, which is kind of a secondary CF position at Fenway Park, and while Betts can be great in CF, JBJ is even a defensive upgrade on Betts.
So you get a respectable OPS and tremendous defense. That's a lot of value. Soler would have to hit like a monster to make it worth losing JBJ, and if he's healthy, he might. I don't know that his OBP will be much better than JBJs, but I'm pretty sure his defense would be well below JBJ's and as a result the small step down defensively from JBJ to Betts in CF and the large dropoff in defense from Betts to Soler would be pretty impactful.
So from a Sox perspective I would say no to a JBJ for Soler deal, so if JBJ hits .198 again and Soler blossoms, I'll be wrong again, but I just wouldn't make that trade.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 21, 2015 14:55:48 GMT -5
In the past, I might have jumped at a deal to send JBJ to Chicago for Soler. I very badly wanted the Sox to get Soler when he was available to be signed. And I certainly would have been all over that deal in 2014. Now, I don't think I'd make that trade if I were DDo. I don't know that JBJ will ever be a reliable hitter. I know that he has long, long bouts where he's terrible. I know that he had a stretch where he hit like a superstar, and I know that he has a positive minor league track record in regards to hitting. So that gives me hope that JBJ can hit between .240 - .270 with some power - 15 HRs or so - and the Sox can use all the LH power they can get in the future, and some OBP as JBJ is willing to draw walks. And the guy can play amazing defense. He frees Betts up to play RF, which is kind of a secondary CF position at Fenway Park, and while Betts can be great in CF, JBJ is even a defensive upgrade on Betts. So you get a respectable OPS and tremendous defense. That's a lot of value. Soler would have to hit like a monster to make it worth losing JBJ, and if he's healthy, he might. I don't know that his OBP will be much better than JBJs, but I'm pretty sure his defense would be well below JBJ's and as a result the small step down defensively from JBJ to Betts in CF and the large dropoff in defense from Betts to Soler would be pretty impactful. So from a Sox perspective I would say no to a JBJ for Soler deal, so if JBJ hits .198 again and Soler blossoms, I'll be wrong again, but I just wouldn't make that trade. Solid point and I get it. Once again, I'm a Bradley fan myself! |
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 22, 2015 7:53:55 GMT -5
There have been reports that DD has told the Cubs and Royals JBjr is unavailable. There's no chance they'd trade him for Soler at this point. We talked a lot the riskiness of the Red Sox roster and adding Soler just increases that risk.
For as risky as JBjr is from an offensive perspective, he's zero risk defensively. His glove alone makes the pitching staff better and this team should not have many issues offensively even if Bradley struggles. Same goes for Castillo, the outfield defense might be the best in the league in a difficult park to play in. Castillo is kind of like a Green Monster Savant, which can play huge dividends.
Back to Bradley. As much as I've questioned him, I do think it's fairly safe to assume his bat won't be nearly as bad as it was at first. Even if he struggles, I doubt he gives away all those at bats and has no power at all. His track record is too good as is his work ethic and mind set. He may still
Be a below average offensive center fielder, which is pretty bad but I doubt he's putrid. Not sure a hitter who's that bad can have the type of hot streak he did.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Jan 6, 2016 12:36:20 GMT -5
Not that it means anything at all, but Dave Cameron did drop a reference to a Bradley/Soler swap in his latest fangraphs chat when asked about what the Cubs options for CF could be.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jan 7, 2016 9:51:58 GMT -5
Not that it means anything at all, but Dave Cameron did drop a reference to a Bradley/Soler swap in his latest fangraphs chat when asked about what the Cubs options for CF could be. It's good to know he's keeping an eye on us |
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Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 7, 2016 11:18:04 GMT -5
Not that it means anything at all, but Dave Cameron did drop a reference to a Bradley/Soler swap in his latest fangraphs chat when asked about what the Cubs options for CF could be. Soler for JBJ would be an awesome trade for the Sox. I think the cubs would need a little more in return to get Soler though. Too much offensive ceiling for the cubs to trade one for one. |
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Post by dcsoxfan on Jan 7, 2016 12:28:54 GMT -5
Not that it means anything at all, but Dave Cameron did drop a reference to a Bradley/Soler swap in his latest fangraphs chat when asked about what the Cubs options for CF could be. Soler for JBJ would be an awesome trade for the Sox. I think the cubs would need a little more in return to get Soler though. Too much offensive ceiling for the cubs to trade one for one. Other way around. JBJ has more present value, less risk. His market value SHOULD be higher than Soler's. |
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Post by dirtywater43 on Jan 7, 2016 12:34:33 GMT -5
Soler for JBJ would be an awesome trade for the Sox. I think the cubs would need a little more in return to get Soler though. Too much offensive ceiling for the cubs to trade one for one. Other way around. JBJ has more present value, less risk. His market value SHOULD be higher than Soler's. I think you're overvaluing jbj. No way do the cubs value jbj more than Soler, sorry. |
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Post by jmei on Jan 7, 2016 12:56:39 GMT -5
Now that the Cubs are generally regarded as projecting to be the best team in the league, they might be interested in a move like this that gives them less upside but reduces risk (assuming that they agree with my assessment that they project to be similar players in the near future but that Bradley's defense makes him less risky than Soler).
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Post by telson13 on Jan 7, 2016 13:08:49 GMT -5
Other way around. JBJ has more present value, less risk. His market value SHOULD be higher than Soler's. I think you're overvaluing jbj. No way do the cubs value jbj more than Soler, sorry. It's more that you're overvaluing offense (particularly, offensive potential, since Soler was not very good offensively in the bigs). It's like the Ortiz/Mookie argument over again. JBJ had as many HR, with a substantially better triple slash line, **and** plays much, much better defense, at a premium position. Soler may have a lot more offensive potential, but he hasn't shown it at the MLB level. |
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