Three Up, Three Down, Three Gems - 2016

THREE UP

1) Luis Alexander Basabe - I believe his power/speed combo will begin to play up even more, and he will be the guy that makes us forget Margot. Young and athletic...my favorite mix.

2) Pat Light - he will learn to command his splitter and become a solid valuable bullpen piece

3) Marc Brakeman - Marc will finally be healthy, productive, and wise

THREE DOWN

1) Sean Coyle - injury prone, big swing and miss, and running out of time

2) Karsten Whitson - hopefully healthy, but he better show something soon

3) Edwin Escobar - makes it this spring or heading somewhere else after a poor season

THREE GEMS

1) Lorenzo Cedrola - probably will be in GCL. Nice stats and very young. Interesting to see what we have state side.

2) Austin Glorius - already 22, but man he has a nice arm. It will be very interesting to see how he performs the whole year. He may end up in Portland by August

3) Travis Lakins - may fly through the system. Older, but finally healthy

There's no way in hell Kopech is going to be in the 2017 rotation. That's next summer. It just ain't happening. He only pitched in single A last year and was very good, but not truly dominant. I would be a little surprised if he's in the 2018 rotation - at least before August. 2019 is most reasonable. He'll need this summer for A+, maybe some AA, 2017 for AA, maybe some AAA, 2018 for AAA and some taste of Boston, 2019 Boston. That's if all goes and on the starter track.

I don't know about three but I'll pick one of each:

Up

Benintendi - every time I see the combine numbers he put up between college and pro-ball last year I go WTF. Will not be surprise if he reaches the big leagues next year.

Down

Chavis - too many Ks. Still has the power and defense but I worry the hit tool will prevent him from reaching his ceiling. I know he had a reputation of a good hit tool out of HS so there is hope.

Gem

Albert Guaimaro - a bit of a forgotten man cause he didn't get the highest bonus for technical reasons. But Eddie and his crew know what they are doing I say he has a big debut and is on everyone's radar this time next year.

UP:

Sam Travis. The dude can hit, and I really doubt he's going to be challenged by AAA pitching any more than he was by AA pitching. Unless he pulls a Cecchini and just forgets how to hit, which is possible but probably not that likely, he's either going to hold steady, or show some power gains and increase his stock.

Michael Chavis. It's possible that every scout missed on the hit/power combo that he supposedly possesses, but at this point I'm more inclined to believe he simply struggled to adjust to life in pro ball last year. There were reports of him pressing, not surprising for a 19 year old who's never really been challenged before. Having been through the grinder last year, I'm hopeful he'll learn from that experience and we'll see his tools start to manifest this year.

Trey Ball. I still think there's enough there in terms of stuff and projection, he probably repeats Salem this year, and that would be as good a time as any to start putting things together consistently. Something of a make-or-break year for him, I'm betting on the make side, although I can't say I'm incredibly confident about it.

DOWN:

Andrew Benintendi. I like him, but he's SO hyped right now, mostly based on him punishing competition at a level where he should punish it given his pedigree. I know there's scouting juice there as well, but I think scouts can be fooled by performance as much as anyone. He's great, but I think he gets pushed to a level where he'll struggle a bit this year, and his projections will come back down to earth a little bit.

Nick Longhi. Basically a bat-only guy without any spectacular abilities with the bat, I feel like he's the kind of guy who you can sort of dream on when he's at the lower levels, but as he moves up and his limitations become more apparent, I think he becomes more of an afterthought.

Brian Johnson. I feel kind of bad putting him here, but mysterious arm issues for a guy who's already pretty old and already has fairly marginal stuff... it's a dangerous profile. He could be in the big league next year, but I think there's a strong chance he could go the Brandon Workman rout and just slide off into oblivion. Which probably happens more often to that type of pitcher than we like to think about.

GEMS:

I won't pretend I'm smart enough or well informed enough about the deep dark depths of the system to make great predictions here, but Williams Jerez, Pat Light, and Marco Hernandez remain relatively anonymous players despite being decent candidates to make a big league impact next year.

UP:

Sam Travis. I'm a believer in his bat. I think he'll be UP enough that the Sox will seriously look to get him the 1b job for 2017 with Hanley shifting over to DH.

Michael Chavis. I know he whiffs a ton, but he was improving as the season was progressing, so I'm not sold on the thought that his season last year represents what he will be going forward. Players improve and players decline. I don't think Chavis' stats represent who he'll be. I think the power will continue to intrigue and the Ks will go down and his stock will go upward.

Luis Alexander Basabe. I think he has a good year for his age and establishes himself as another reason why Manny Margot was expendable. I like his ability to draw walks and hit with some power.

DOWN:

Marco Hernandez. I don't think he's that good a hitter and with his OBP depending upon his BA, it means he'll be a AAA guy, rather than a potential bench guy in the majors.

Pat Light. I like Pat Light's potential but if he can't throw strikes it won't matter. I don't think Light is somebody to give up on. I do think he'll struggle this year, though.

Wendell Rijo. I don't think he'll rebound. I think he's already peaked as a prospect.

GEMS:

Roniel Raudes. Am interested to see what he can do. Have heard good things about him.

Josh Ockimey. I like his power potential. I think we see some of it this year.

Travis Lakins. I like to think that guy at Fangraphs knows what he's talking about.

Very tricky way to get an extra guy, tonyc, very tricky...

My 3 gems requires patience but will pan out, Steen, Ockimey,Pennington. 3 up, Kopech, Ball, Buttrey. 3 down, Chavis,Marrero, Matheny. I feel with Buttrey he is gonna be one of those kids that rebounds but we don't believe in him so trade high on him. We need those types also. I stress patience with the gems. Pennington looks like he is earmarked for pen but if something goes right we might have another starter. Ockimey to me is bash,bash,bash. I not giving up on Ball he is gonna figure this out.
The three I am down on is easy. Marrero was to me the highest rated pick still available and we fell for it. I hated the right up on Matheny and we didn't need the pick to me. Finally I haven't seen it from Chavis and he should be doing good because the other kids are getting the attention. This year is the key.

Also I disappointed they released Jalen Williams. They had a purge in December I didn't see until now. I like this by the way.

Chris at first I didn't know what you were talking about and kept checking to see that I listed 3 for each category- then I got it..very clever.