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Post by soxfanatic on Feb 18, 2016 3:10:21 GMT -5
As the O's are expected to land both Dexter Fowler and Yovani Gallardo, it begs the question: Which AL East team are you most afraid of going into the season? I included a poll for fun.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 18, 2016 3:33:03 GMT -5
The Jays have the deepest lineup and okay pitching. However they have durability issues and age issues. I'm not sure if they'll hold up.
The yankees are already running into depth issues and spring training hasn't even come yet. Bird is out for the year. Their pitching is pretty good if they can hold up, which is a huge question for them. I don't expect them to hold up like they did last year.
The Rays could be really good or mediocre again. All depends on how Cobb looks coming back from injury. Snell could be a huge boost for them. Their lineup is improved but probably is one of the worst offenses in the al. Their defense should be sneaky good.
The Orioles to me are the most solid team up and down. Their rotation is solid. Their bullpen is good. Their lineup will be at the top of the league. Their defense is outstanding.
My vote goes to the Orioles. All being said though, the Sox should beat all of these teams for the Al East this year. They have the best overall team mixed with youth and veteran presence. Hard to find any real flaws on the Sox. There are questions but the Sox have depth behind every question they do have this year. The only one position the Sox might not have depth in is the outfield. Either way it's going to be a dogfight to the end and might come down to the last week of the year. Going to be a great year.
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Post by soxfanatic on Feb 18, 2016 6:06:22 GMT -5
I'm a little bit torn. The obvious answer seems Blue Jays, but I'm not sold on their starting pitching after Stroman. I'm giving it a little more thought.
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Post by theghostofjoecronin on Feb 18, 2016 6:39:28 GMT -5
Blue Jays for me. Their offense is absolutely loaded and that alone scares me more than anything else. I will cringe every time our starter is pitching to: Tulo/Encarnacion/Bautista.
I will say that the Yankees have the scariest bullpen, and the Rays the scariest starting staff, but you never want to have to go against one of the (if not the) best offense in baseball.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 18, 2016 7:44:52 GMT -5
Yankees probably sold one last soul to the devil to get production out of Arod and Sabathia and Beltran and all the other old farts. I don't know where they get all those souls.
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Post by jmei on Feb 18, 2016 8:04:02 GMT -5
Good thread.
I honestly wouldn't be surprised if any team won the division-- all five teams should be in the picture through at least summer. I wouldn't underestimate the Yankees-- best bullpen in the league, a very good rotation (Tanaka, Pineda, Severino, Eovaldi, Sabathia, Nova), a very good defense, and the resources to make an upgrade at the deadline. They've sneakily pivoted to become a better version of the Rays.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,824
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Post by nomar on Feb 18, 2016 8:54:35 GMT -5
The whole division will be good this year.
The Orioles will probably sign Fowler and Gallardo, which will probably add an extra 3-4 wins to their team over their current projections.
The Rays sneakily had the 7th best wRC in baseball last year and have Cobb and Smyly back behind Archer for what could be the best rotation in the division. I don't like Dickerson, but if he pans out they could legitimately threaten to win the division right under everyone's nose.
Health will play a big role in how things shake out this year.
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pd
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Post by pd on Feb 18, 2016 9:43:50 GMT -5
Where's the "I have no fear" option?
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Post by sox fan in nc on Feb 18, 2016 10:33:46 GMT -5
Good thread. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if any team won the division-- all five teams should be in the picture through at least summer. I wouldn't underestimate the Yankees-- best bullpen in the league, a very good rotation (Tanaka, Pineda, Severino, Eovaldi, Sabathia, Nova), a very good defense, and the resources to make an upgrade at the deadline. They've sneakily pivoted to become a better version of the Rays. The Yankee starters match up with ours 1-5, but I think our depth (6-9) gives us an edge. So many variables, who will show up, injuries, age, ect...With their thin position player depth & age, I believe we'll have a better year overall. This may be one of those years you can project any scenario 1-5 in the division & not be floored who finishes 1st or last or anything in between.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 18, 2016 10:41:50 GMT -5
Where's the shruggy face?
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Post by brianthetaoist on Feb 18, 2016 11:24:05 GMT -5
Good thread. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if any team won the division-- all five teams should be in the picture through at least summer. I wouldn't underestimate the Yankees-- best bullpen in the league, a very good rotation (Tanaka, Pineda, Severino, Eovaldi, Sabathia, Nova), a very good defense, and the resources to make an upgrade at the deadline. They've sneakily pivoted to become a better version of the Rays. Yeah, I've pretty consistently bashed Cashman as overrated, but, gotta say, I've been impressed by how he's transitioned that team as his budget got more constrained. Basically, his budget was cut back and therefore was eaten up by a few gigantic, inefficient contracts. So he looked at the rest of his team as if he was a smaller budget team, was early on the increasing valuation of elite relievers, emphasized defense, made some decent acquisitions in starting pitching, and hoped for reasonable production from his overpriced veteran position players. It's not a sure-fire road to success (and they could fall apart this year), but it's a solid plan that was pretty well executed in the constraints he had. He still should re-evaluate his amateur and minor league systems, but I think he did a solid job with the major league team in different circumstances than he has usually worked under.
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Post by okin15 on Feb 18, 2016 12:04:11 GMT -5
How do the Yankees keep finding better than serviceable starting pitchers out of nowhere? Drives me nuts. Rationally, I think the Jays, but those pinstripes man. Those pinstripes!
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Post by humanbeingbean on Feb 18, 2016 12:42:13 GMT -5
The Jays are the big boppers, but the Rays always find a way to be competitive. I think the Orioles, even if they add Gallardo and Fowler, aren't too above a .500 team because of the lack of rotation depth, and the Yankees have to start showing signs of aging at some point. I think it'll be an extremely tight division this season, though, and I wouldn't be surprised if we all end up between 80-92ish wins.
My final standings: 1. Sox 2. Jays 3. Rays 4. Yankees 5. Orioles
But I could also definitely see any other order, maybe besides having the Orioles in first. The second likeliest scenario to me is either the Jays or Rays in first, and the Sox nabbing a Wild Card around 86 wins.
EDIT: Also, I have to have the Sox in first. But in all seriousness, I could see us in second or third, but still around 86-88 wins. It's gonna be a tight AL in its entirety and September's gonna be a lot of fun.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 18, 2016 13:59:12 GMT -5
I went with the Yankees. Their bats aren't particularly frightening, yet I think they'll find a way to put runs up on the scoreboard. Age and injuries certainly could catch up to them.
But I think their pitching could be scary good. With Chapman, Betances, and Miller, just about any lead they get after six or seven should be tough to overcome.
I think Severino will be very good. In fact I think he'll become their ace this year. Tanaka's health is a big key. I keep waiting to hear that he'll be out for the season with injuries, but that doesn't happen, and he's still pitching effectively. Pineda and Eovaldi have electric stuff, and Sabathia might even bounce back somewhat.
I honestly think by the end of the decade the Sox and Yankees will be battling it out for AL East supremacy.
If I was picking the standings, I'd go with Yankees, Red Sox (wild card), Blue Jays, Rays, Orioles
I think the Yanks will win with extremely good pitching, but the Sox certainly have a chance to capture the division. I just think the Jays' pitching won't be anywhere near as good and some of those great performances by the veterans might decline a bit. The Rays will have good pitching but struggle to score and the Orioles will start their descent to the bottom of the east and losing draft picks for Gallardo and Fowler won't help that at all.
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Post by tonyc on Feb 18, 2016 14:18:59 GMT -5
The Yankees have a high enough ceiling if things break right, but have some widcards in their rotation- Sabbathias and Tanakas health, and the aged hitters- to where they could finish poorly as well. Brian, you echo my thoughts regarding Cashman for about the last year and a half. His "throw money to the wall and see who sticks" never impressed me, and I think he's done some of his finer work lately under a budget.
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Post by jrffam05 on Feb 18, 2016 15:22:14 GMT -5
I picked Toronto, because Sandoval was not an option
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Post by pedroelgrande on Feb 18, 2016 16:11:30 GMT -5
I think the Yankees are gonna be great this year. Win the east and go deep in the playoffs, perhaps win it all.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 18, 2016 18:43:04 GMT -5
I think the Yankees are gonna be great this year. Win the east and go deep in the playoffs, perhaps win it all. That is a solid attempt at an intentional jinx. Anyhow, as the question is phrased, I definitely fear the Blue Jays the most. If it was "who will win the division" I'd have no idea. But the Blue Jays upside - where Stroman stays healthy and Sanchez sticks in the rotation and the lineup doesn't show its age - is enormous. Other than the Cubs and maybe the Dodgers they have the highest "if everything goes right" ceiling. I think the Orioles will finish in last place and that the other four teams could go in any order.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 19, 2016 2:34:17 GMT -5
The yankees won't make it into September healthy. They'll be exactly where they've been the past 5 years. 2nd or 3rd in the al east.
I don't know how taking away Justin Wilson and Adam Warren while replacing them with Chapman who's going to be suspended for about a month if not more, makes the yankees any better.
They replaced Stephen Drew last year with Castro who could be worse than drew was in 2015. Not to mention everyone of their big bopers are once again a year older.
They have limited depth in the minors and not much ammunition to trade at the deadline if they're not willing to trade their young talent like last year.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 19, 2016 10:57:16 GMT -5
The yankees won't make it into September healthy. They'll be exactly where they've been the past 5 years. 2nd or 3rd in the al east. I don't know how taking away Justin Wilson and Adam Warren while replacing them with Chapman who's going to be suspended for about a month if not more, makes the yankees any better. They replaced Stephen Drew last year with Castro who could be worse than drew was in 2015. Not to mention everyone of their big bopers are once again a year older. They have limited depth in the minors and not much ammunition to trade at the deadline if they're not willing to trade their young talent like last year. Yeah, while obviously Chapman is a better pitcher than Wilson, Wilson had a *ridiculous* year last year, and pitched his absolute best in the most critical situations: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-yankees-bullpen-probably-wont-be-any-better/ . NY was something like 57-2 when leading after six and 72-0 when leading after eight. There's really no way to improve on that without improving the offense, because the relief pitching was pretty much maxed out. Adam Warren is a bigger loss than people realize, although Severino may replace him. Severino's FIP was around 4, though, so his 2.8- ERA was a bit of a magic trick. Losing Bird is a tough hit to their depth, and their lineup is getting really long in the tooth. Still tons of talent, but injuries and mediocre depth are a huge risk. They do have some minor league talent, though. Gary Sanchez has looked a little better, Aaron Judge struggled some in AAA but has huge power, and Jorge Mateo has blazing speed and a good hit tool, and is pretty good defensively. They'll be able to make some moves if they're in it, although I think Cashman has a decree to hold the line on his young talent, and he's made some terrific deals with his second-tier guys. That said, I think the Yankees have basically no chance at improving their bullpen **outcomes** over last year, even if Chapman ups their **talent** in 2016. The offense probably won't be much better (I do think Castro is a 2b upgrade though), and could be a LOT worse. If Severino steps up, and Tanaka and Pineda stay healthy, they could repeat last year's performance, maybe even make 90 wins in the outside. But the downside risk is huge. I'm not sold that they're much better than an 82-84 win team.
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Post by borisman on Feb 19, 2016 10:59:46 GMT -5
I picked Toronto, as things stand right now. There will be injuries so that will play a huge part in who wins the division. I don't fear Tampa though. Every other team has a legit chance to make the playoffs. This is probably the toughest division in all of baseball and I'm glad we overpaid some to get Price, Kimbrel and Smith (Wade Miley was a solid SP and a good bet to start 30 games so I think that is more valuable than a set-up guy). Those guys were needed and make us a better/deeper team.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,824
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Post by nomar on Feb 19, 2016 12:54:43 GMT -5
The thing about Toronto is that Price gets replaced by Stroman, which I'll call a neutral.
Donaldson, EE, and Bautista are great players, but I don't expect them to do any better in sum than they were last year.
Colabello will definitely be worse this year.
Goins has downside risk because we don't know if his second half was legitimate or not.
Their power hitters are getting old, which is a risk in itself.
I would call Toronto the favorite, but I also think that they lack depth and there are many risks to them not being able to duplicate their success. Their year last season was a lot like the 2013 Red Sox team, they just didn't happen to win it all unfortunately for them.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Feb 19, 2016 14:29:35 GMT -5
The thing about Toronto is that Price gets replaced by Stroman, which I'll call a neutral. Donaldson, EE, and Bautista are great players, but I don't expect them to do any better in sum than they were last year. Colabello will definitely be worse this year. Goins has downside risk because we don't know if his second half was legitimate or not. Their power hitters are getting old, which is a risk in itself. I would call Toronto the favorite, but I also think that they lack depth and there are many risks to them not being able to duplicate their success. Their year last season was a lot like the 2013 Red Sox team, they just didn't happen to win it all unfortunately for them. Tulo may the wild card. He can be a beast or be nothing (major DL time) & neither would shock anyone. Your right as you pretty much know what your getting from the other big 3. Also, 2 of them are in a walk year.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,824
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Post by nomar on Feb 19, 2016 16:39:06 GMT -5
Almost forgot they had Tulo. Yeah he's got a wide array of potential outcomes. He looked pretty mediocre last year and he's getting up there in age, but we all know his ceiling is incredible. Their new infield should help him stay on the field a bit more.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 19, 2016 18:11:13 GMT -5
The thing about Toronto is that Price gets replaced by Stroman, which I'll call a neutral. Donaldson, EE, and Bautista are great players, but I don't expect them to do any better in sum than they were last year. Colabello will definitely be worse this year. Goins has downside risk because we don't know if his second half was legitimate or not. Their power hitters are getting old, which is a risk in itself. I would call Toronto the favorite, but I also think that they lack depth and there are many risks to them not being able to duplicate their success. Their year last season was a lot like the 2013 Red Sox team, they just didn't happen to win it all unfortunately for them. Tulo may the wild card. He can be a beast or be nothing (major DL time) & neither would shock anyone. Your right as you pretty much know what your getting from the other big 3. Also, 2 of them are in a walk year. I think they'll resign Encarnacion at least. Edwin has stated that he wants to build his legacy in Toronto. Also there may not be a ton of dh slots available if the nl doesn't enforce the dh rule by 2017. Edwin will be more affordable than Bautista in the open market because he's a dh only.
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