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The Big-Time Trade Target List
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 18, 2016 14:19:47 GMT -5
No, I'm not saying that. I said he relies on luck and a large park and weaker competition to get great results. Don't you think he'd get worse results pitching in Fenway, Toronto, NY and Baltimore for about 2/3 of the season? There it is again the word luck. Please explain what you mean, because with 2 1/2 years of stats I don't see how you think his results are because of luck. Sure a large park and weaker competition would help any pitcher, but they help certain pitchers more then others. Only 28% of his outs come on FBs, he has a 2 to 1 GB to FB ratio for his career. So while I'm sure his park helps him, it's not what makes him good. He's not getting a ton of deep FB outs in that big park, he's a ground ball pitcher. Show me a pitcher that won't have worse stats pitching in AL East compared to other divisions, your just stating the obvious. The difference is I see him going from 2.75 era to like 3.25 era and you act like he would have a 4.25 era because he's all luck, large park and different division. I think he'd pitch like his SIERA, which is exactly what SIERA is used for. Tell me how many foul pop ups he gets in Oakland that he wouldn't get in Boston. That isn't a tracked stat unfortunately.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 18, 2016 15:24:50 GMT -5
Grays interesting bc he outperforms his periphials. I can see both sides of the argument but at the end of the day think he's more of a very good 2-3 than ace. That's basically what I'm saying. He'd probably be valued as a top 10 pitcher, but he isn't one. He's actually pretty similar to what Shelby Miller might become IMO. Though now that he's in Arizona, he'll have a hard time outperforming his peripherals. That's a bidding war that I don't want the Red Sox to win. See that's the problem you think Miller could become Gray, they are very different pitchers. Miller will never become close to being Gray unless he completely changes his pitching style. Where Gray had almost 2 to 1 GB to FB ratio, Miller had almost a 1 to 1 ratio in his career. Miller would scare me to death at Fenway and would be like a good #3 pitcher. Your whole argument about Gray, Fenway, AL East and big parks applies to Miller 100% more then it does Gray.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 18, 2016 15:43:13 GMT -5
There it is again the word luck. Please explain what you mean, because with 2 1/2 years of stats I don't see how you think his results are because of luck. Sure a large park and weaker competition would help any pitcher, but they help certain pitchers more then others. Only 28% of his outs come on FBs, he has a 2 to 1 GB to FB ratio for his career. So while I'm sure his park helps him, it's not what makes him good. He's not getting a ton of deep FB outs in that big park, he's a ground ball pitcher. Show me a pitcher that won't have worse stats pitching in AL East compared to other divisions, your just stating the obvious. The difference is I see him going from 2.75 era to like 3.25 era and you act like he would have a 4.25 era because he's all luck, large park and different division. I think he'd pitch like his SIERA, which is exactly what SIERA is used for. Tell me how many foul pop ups he gets in Oakland that he wouldn't get in Boston. That isn't a tracked stat unfortunately. SIERA is a backward looking calculation that shows you based largely on strikeouts how a pitcher should have done. It's not an end all and will undervalue players that don't get a ton of strikeouts but get very good results. Tell me how many years in a row does Gray have to out perform his SIERA before you would think maybe SIERA doesn't work well on a pitcher like him? We only have SIERA on Maddux last 4 years, if we had his first 6-8 years it would clearly show how SIERA doesn't like pitchers with low strikeouts numbers and how it can be wrong year after year. As to foul pops up its a good point, but he's a ground ball pitcher so I think the number would be a lot lower than you think. If he was Miller your point would mean a lot more.
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Post by jmei on Apr 18, 2016 15:50:12 GMT -5
I never thought I'd see jimed become the hardline defender of DIPS theory...
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 18, 2016 16:12:25 GMT -5
I never thought I'd see jimed become the hardline defender of DIPS theory... Feel free to take over... I'm done. I'm definitely more inclined to believe in it with pedestrian k-rates. Oh and here's another guy who used to outperform his peripherals before he came to Fenway and the AL East - Joe Kelly.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 18, 2016 16:13:32 GMT -5
Have they gone up like 300%? Otherwise that's a very valid comparison. Maddux had a K/BB ratio below 2 his first 4 years. Guys that don't strikeout hitters can still be great pitchers and luck has nothing to do with it. It's a fairly rare trait now a days, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't value those pitchers. But what, then, is the value of the comparison to Maddux? Maddux was pitching in the majors for those two years while Gray was in college/minors. Maddux pitched in a couple of bandboxes, in an age of increasing offense and smaller strike zones. There's a bigger picture than just looking at K/BB rates. Are you saying that you think Gray is going to further refine his command like Maddux did? I'm not disputing that Gray is a good pitcher. I don't think he's great, but he might be eventually. There's maybe a 0.1% chance he becomes Greg Maddux, but he could certainly approach that territory. But I think that presuming he will, and trading a bunch of young talent hoping he will, isn't a wise move. I'm the pitchman for the "velocity and strikeouts aren't everything" crowd, so I think I get where you're coming from. I just don't have the faith you do that Gray would translate well to Fenway. Like I said, I think he's Damon in reverse. Johnny was pretty bad his one year in Oakland (low BA, low OBP, not much XB power--including only 4 triples despite all of the space, low assists because his arm was overchallenged in a big OF, etc etc). Damon just wasn't a good fit for that park. Same with Mo Vaughn when he left Fenway...he went from a great hitter to just a very good one. Look at Peavy and Lackey, and what happened to them leaving Fenway. I get the sense that Gray, out of a park (and division) that suit him, and into a small ballpark with unforgivingly small foul territory and the wall in LF...well, he'd turn into a pumpkin. My point was what I said guys that don't strikeout a ton of guys can be great pitchers year in and year out and luck has nothing to do with it. I'm not saying Gray becomes Maddux just that he is similar. Gray had better K/B ratio in his age 24 and 25 season compared to Maddux and a lot better strikeout per 9 numbers. I don't think he needs to improve at all to be worth trading for right now. A slight decrease in walks though could make him a top 5 pitcher. As far as Damon it's one year I would say it was a combination of ballpark and not wanting to be in Oakland. Again Gray has a 2 to 1 GB to FB ratio, with only 28% of outs coming on fly balls. So while I'm sure his ballpark helped him, it wouldn't help him to the degree it would Shelby Miller and his GB to FB ratio of 1 to 1, with fly ball outs of 39%.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 18, 2016 16:26:12 GMT -5
I think he'd pitch like his SIERA, which is exactly what SIERA is used for. Tell me how many foul pop ups he gets in Oakland that he wouldn't get in Boston. That isn't a tracked stat unfortunately. SIERA is a backward looking calculation that shows you based largely on strikeouts how a pitcher should have done. It's not an end all and will undervalue players that don't get a ton of strikeouts but get very good results. Tell me how many years in a row does Gray have to out perform his SIERA before you would think maybe SIERA doesn't work well on a pitcher like him? We only have SIERA on Maddux last 4 years, if we had his first 6-8 years it would clearly show how SIERA doesn't like pitchers with low strikeouts numbers and how it can be wrong year after year. As to foul pops up its a good point, but he's a ground ball pitcher so I think the number would be a lot lower than you think. If he was Miller your point would mean a lot more. That's a gross oversimplification (and really, a misrepresentation) of SIERA, which is essentially a complex model to combine batted-ball information with FIP. I don't agree with the idea of Gray being lucky for 2 1/2 years, because that's just too long of an extended period of luck. He may certainly represent an outlier in terms of the axiom "more missed bats equals weaker contact." And he probably does have a BABIP skill; Grienke is a fairly similar pitcher stylistically and he routinely outperforms his FIP. But the issue that I think jimed is getting at (and which I agree with) is that Fenway in particular, and the AL East in general, are likely to be *much* more unforgiving to a pitcher of that type over one who misses bats. Your 3.25 prediction may be accurate, but I would argue that the error bars skew a lot higher than they do lower, simply because pitching to contact (weak or not) implies a dependency on getting foul outs, INF popups, grounders, and lazy flies. The foul outs and lazy flies are sure to be a problem in Fenway. And in the AL East, I've got to think the HR/FB rate will bump up, regardless, because of the shorter porches. Really, the simple question is this: why trade for an industry-overvalued (based on performance history in a pitcher's environment) player who is likely a poor fit for your ballpark, rather than a different, industry-undervalued player who's a good fit? I'm not sure exactly who that might be, but overpaying talent-wise for Gray, who's probably a worse risk than average to suffer a significant performance drop in Boston doesn't make sense to me. I like him as a pitcher; I respect his consistently very good performance. I think he may actually get even better. But I'd rather see them spend markedly less in terms of talent and get a guy like Taijuan Walker, who changes speeds well, misses bats, but hasn't fully broken out. Gray just isn't a good match for the Sox.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 18, 2016 16:57:01 GMT -5
Actually, Taijuan Walker is someone I'd wished they'd gone after last year. His HR/FB rate last year was high at 13%, which *was* probably bad luck. His SIERA and xFIP accordingly were quite good. His lack of an established record and mediocre ERA last year mean he's not the industry darling Gray is. But he has #1 stuff, is very young, still has 4 years of control, mixes speeds (with excellent velocity separation), may have a BABIP skill (see mixing speeds, but not enough data), and has a history of good K rates in both the minors and in MLB. He might have some risk as a 1:1 GB:FB pitcher, but Lester is an example of a guy who learned to pitch to INF popups vs deep flies, and frankly I'm not sure that, with the Sox OF, flies are by nature a bad thing. Certainly, *weak* flies aren't, and missing bats correlates with weak contact. It's also well-established that BABIP on GB is higher than for flies. So GB are not always ideal, unless a guy can pitch to GB contact with a runner on first.
As much as I think Gray's a very good pitcher (and I'd be happy if he were on the Sox), I just think there's better value out there for this team, in this park.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 18, 2016 17:18:28 GMT -5
SIERA is a backward looking calculation that shows you based largely on strikeouts how a pitcher should have done. It's not an end all and will undervalue players that don't get a ton of strikeouts but get very good results. Tell me how many years in a row does Gray have to out perform his SIERA before you would think maybe SIERA doesn't work well on a pitcher like him? We only have SIERA on Maddux last 4 years, if we had his first 6-8 years it would clearly show how SIERA doesn't like pitchers with low strikeouts numbers and how it can be wrong year after year. As to foul pops up its a good point, but he's a ground ball pitcher so I think the number would be a lot lower than you think. If he was Miller your point would mean a lot more. That's a gross oversimplification (and really, a misrepresentation) of SIERA, which is essentially a complex model to combine batted-ball information with FIP. I don't agree with the idea of Gray being lucky for 2 1/2 years, because that's just too long of an extended period of luck. He may certainly represent an outlier in terms of the axiom "more missed bats equals weaker contact." And he probably does have a BABIP skill; Grienke is a fairly similar pitcher stylistically and he routinely outperforms his FIP. But the issue that I think jimed is getting at (and which I agree with) is that Fenway in particular, and the AL East in general, are likely to be *much* more unforgiving to a pitcher of that type over one who misses bats. Your 3.25 prediction may be accurate, but I would argue that the error bars skew a lot higher than they do lower, simply because pitching to contact (weak or not) implies a dependency on getting foul outs, INF popups, grounders, and lazy flies. The foul outs and lazy flies are sure to be a problem in Fenway. And in the AL East, I've got to think the HR/FB rate will bump up, regardless, because of the shorter porches. Really, the simple question is this: why trade for an industry-overvalued (based on performance history in a pitcher's environment) player who is likely a poor fit for your ballpark, rather than a different, industry-undervalued player who's a good fit? I'm not sure exactly who that might be, but overpaying talent-wise for Gray, who's probably a worse risk than average to suffer a significant performance drop in Boston doesn't make sense to me. I like him as a pitcher; I respect his consistently very good performance. I think he may actually get even better. But I'd rather see them spend markedly less in terms of talent and get a guy like Taijuan Walker, who changes speeds well, misses bats, but hasn't fully broken out. Gray just isn't a good match for the Sox. See I don't think Gray is overvalued, if anything I think he's undervalued. I also think he's a good fit at Fenway as a ground ball pitcher. I want to add that Ben who was one of the Top GMs at using advanced stats reportley tried to acquire Gray more then once. Then Dave a GM thats just about the opposite of Ben again tried to acquire him. Seems the Red Sox GM's don't agree with your Gray's not a good fit for the Sox. If you go back to the article that started all this, the trade package was equal or less then what D Backs paid to get Miller a guy I don't think is any where near the pitcher Gray is. If you make an in season trade for pitching you want more of a sure thing then a former top prospect that has yet to put it all together. That's the type of guy you get in the offseason in my opinion. Also those are also some of the hardest players in Baseball to go get. Sure it sounds great, go get a former top pitching prospect like Walker for a ton less then Gray. It's not that easy. You wanna risk the post season and chance at a title on a guy putting it all togethet? I bring up Gray based on article and the fact that we know that chances are Oakland trades him in next two years.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 18, 2016 18:21:11 GMT -5
Eh, look at LA with Kershaw-Grienke. Compare with the 2007 Sox, or 2013 edition. A player like that makes the team reasonably better in the immediate term, but there's substantial ripple. Reduced roster flexibility, increased dependence on FA (and less familiarity with players' "fit", psychological or skill-wise), increased long-term cost, reduced internal options for unexpected needs, reduced trade options for unexpected needs... I'm not a fan of trades that are predicated on volume out, at least when that volume is non-redundant. I just don't see the connection between Kershaw-Grienke, 2007 Sox and 2013 Sox. LA didn't trade a bunch of prospects for either pitcher and 2013 Sox didn't make a major trade for an elite arm either. Only the 2007 team that traded Ramirez and Sanchez for Beckett seems to compare to Sox trading a bunch of prospects for an elite pitcher. How did that workout? We won a title so in my book that was a slamdunk trade. You seem to prefer to keep all our prospects, were I prefer winning titles and if we need to trade some prospects to do it so be it. I'll refer back to this post re: the idea of trading for Gray. There's no guarantee than an outstanding 1-2 (Kershaw-Greinke is better than Price-Gray, too) wins you a WS. I believe in making value trades, not flashy ones. And teams need more than just to add a pitcher to win in the postseason (which is why I brought up the 15-win, barely-sub-4-ERA Lester-led 2013 team). I think that trading for Gray isn't a *bad* idea, but I think there are better deals to be made with the talent the Sox have, without punching major holes in the roster or minor league depth. I mean, Shelby Miller was an insane overpay...even the Giles (think Houston would like Velazquez back?) and Kimbrel (I think he'll be very good, but Margot/Guerra/Allen could potentially have netted a 2 elsewhere) trades are looking like overpays. Yes, I prefer that the team develop its own players, but I'm OK with trading prospects *in the right deal*. I'm not convinced the Gray trade is the right deal (in the same way I balked at Kimbrel, although for different reasons). But that's OK...you're high on Gray and I'm not.
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Post by larrycook on Apr 24, 2016 16:57:37 GMT -5
Do we really need to burn our minor league depth by overpaying for a top of the rotation starter?
Or would we better served by trading complimentary pieces for dependable relievers.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 24, 2016 19:04:16 GMT -5
Do we really need to burn our minor league depth by overpaying for a top of the rotation starter? Or would we better served by trading complimentary pieces for dependable relievers. I'd like to see them develop their own relievers, but I agree re: trading for an established 1a/2. I think that's a mistake, given the market valuation of those guys in terms of prospects recently. I'd rather see them trade redundant prospects/complementary players for potential breakout (recent struggles, MiLB or MLB) candidates. The rotation is not as bad as it has been these first few weeks.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Apr 25, 2016 15:17:01 GMT -5
DD appears to be ok to trade from redundancy. I could see Swihart being moved for a #2. Quality catchers are really hard to find. With CV & Hanigan (thru 2017) I'd move Blake for a #1a or solid #2 & live with the consequences.....2004 happened because we had Pedro AND Shilling. Just like Randy Johnson & Shilling....I believe Price would actually improve with a 1A behind him.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on May 1, 2016 10:52:56 GMT -5
Gray makes a lot of sense given his peripherals, his arb years coming up and Oakland's overall situation.
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