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The Big Cool Thing About 2016
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 18, 2016 23:33:04 GMT -5
For any big-league team, you can make a list of players who might conceivably be an important contributor in the long-range future (next five years or so), but about whom there is at present significant uncertainty. Either you don't know just how good they'll be, or you're not sure that they'll be good at all. Here is the current list of Red Sox players whom I think fit this description (the three relievers only if you buy the reinforcement hypothesis, perhaps). Eduardo Rodriguez Joe Kelly Henry Owens Steven Wright Roenis Elias Brian Johnson Anderson Espinoza Michael Kopech Christian Vazquez (health) Blake Swihart Hanley Ramirez Travis Shaw Sam Travis Yoan Moncada Pablo Sandoval Rafael Devers Jackie Bradley, Jr. Rusney Castillo Andrew Benintendi [Carson Smith Matt Barnes Pat Light] I can't recall the list ever being this large. I'd be very surprised if any team had a list as long. We can speculate all we want about the shape of the team in 2017 and onward, but the shape of the rotation and starting lineup depends on the performance this year of at least 19 different guys. We wouldn't all be here if we weren't prone to looking ahead to the future, with great interest. We not only have a team that looks like it will be very interesting to watch just at the competitive level, but I don't think we've ever entered a season where what happens at both the MLB and minor league levels will shape our future roster to such a degree. Think of this way: by next winter, for each of these guys, we'll either feel significantly more strongly that they'll be good (either to keep or trade), or feel significantly less strongly that they'll be good, or we'll still be up in the air. Even without the relievers, that's 1.162 billion possible outcomes. I'm too busy to run down the implications of each.  But I think it will be really interesting to watch the number of possible combinations get reduced. And this also means that waiting until at least the trading deadline to make any major trade is a must. You just don't know yet what you're going to need, or where you might want to upgrade from good to great, in 2017 and afterwards. |
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Post by dirtywater43 on Mar 19, 2016 1:21:42 GMT -5
You forgot about Dustin Pedrioa and Rick Porcello. Add them to the list.
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kman22
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Post by kman22 on Mar 19, 2016 2:14:39 GMT -5
You forgot about Dustin Pedrioa and Rick Porcello. Add them to the list. Obviously they have no present uncertainty. |
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Mar 19, 2016 2:38:48 GMT -5
Gotta give props to Red Sox scouting department for signing both Andrew Benintendi and his twin brother, Anthony Benintendi
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Post by dirtywater43 on Mar 19, 2016 5:09:23 GMT -5
You forgot about Dustin Pedrioa and Rick Porcello. Add them to the list. Obviously they have no present uncertainty. Is that sarcasm? We don't know if Pedrioa will stay healthy for a full season again and we all don't know what to expect from Porcello. |
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Post by telson13 on Mar 19, 2016 9:12:44 GMT -5
Gotta give props to Red Sox scouting department for signing both Andrew Benintendi and his twin brother, Anthony Benintendi I'm not so sure. Too bad they're fraternal twins. Anthony may be 6'4", 240, but he's a slap hitter who takes everything the other way, makes Sandoval look selective, and strikes out ten times more than he walks. He struggles defensively at 1b, and he frequently makes outs on the basepaths. Good thing they signed his brother. |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 19, 2016 14:38:55 GMT -5
You forgot about Dustin Pedrioa and Rick Porcello. Add them to the list. I actually had Pedroia on the list initially because of his health, but what happens this year is, I think, a little bit too unlikely to change our sense of how much longer he plays. If he stays healthy all year, or if he gets hurt again, does that actually give us a substantially better idea as to when he might give way to Moncada or whomever as a starter? I don't think so; it remains year-to-year. Whereas, say, you could see E-Rod having an ace season, right here and right now, with his new 5-pitch repertoire, or struggling all year. Which absolutely would change our take on his future role on the team. I don't think Porcello has the range of outcomes required to be on this list, unless space aliens abduct him and brainwash him into throwing his four-seamer instead of his sinker again. Over the last 3 years he's started 68 games and thrown 439 innings using his great sinker as his bread-and butter, and he's put up a 3.55 SIERA, which would have ranked 34th in MLB last year. That's #2 starter territory. His ERA, 3.75, puts him more on the #2 / #3 borderline, but the Tigers were 28th and 29th in Defensive Runs Saved and the Sox were 16th, and he had bad pitch framing to boot. When you factor all of that in, while he's not quite a proven #2, he's very likely; he's nowhere near being a guy with significant uncertainty. The question here is: why should the 4.04 SIERA and 5.81 ERA he put off last year when inexplicably using his 4-seamer as his primary pitch have any relevance to his 2016 performance? (And, BTW, the difference there, which comes from a sky-high BABIP and HR/FB, was probably not random.) |
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ericmvan
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Posts: 8,935
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 19, 2016 14:40:00 GMT -5
Gotta give props to Red Sox scouting department for signing both Andrew Benintendi and his twin brother, Anthony Benintendi I'm not so sure. Too bad they're fraternal twins. Anthony may be 6'4", 240, but he's a slap hitter who takes everything the other way, makes Sandoval look selective, and strikes out ten times more than he walks. He struggles defensively at 1b, and he frequently makes outs on the basepaths. Good thing they signed his brother. I knew that didn't sound right, but I was flashing back to the Prince spaghetti commercials of my youth! |
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Post by ray88h66 on Mar 19, 2016 14:54:30 GMT -5
I'm not so sure. Too bad they're fraternal twins. Anthony may be 6'4", 240, but he's a slap hitter who takes everything the other way, makes Sandoval look selective, and strikes out ten times more than he walks. He struggles defensively at 1b, and he frequently makes outs on the basepaths. Good thing they signed his brother. I knew that didn't sound right, but I was flashing back to the Prince spaghetti commercials of my youth! Well done, your sense of humor is better than I thought. All of the older Boston folks know Wed. is prince sketty day, Hey Anthony. |
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Mar 19, 2016 16:28:38 GMT -5
I believe that lady actually just passed away recently. Remember seeing an article or something about it. (Prince Spaghetti lady)
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,935
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Post by ericmvan on May 13, 2016 23:54:20 GMT -5
For any big-league team, you can make a list of players who might conceivably be an important contributor in the long-range future (next five years or so), but about whom there is at present significant uncertainty. Either you don't know just how good they'll be, or you're not sure that they'll be good at all. Here is the current list of Red Sox players whom I think fit this description (the three relievers only if you buy the reinforcement hypothesis, perhaps). Eduardo Rodriguez Joe Kelly Henry Owens Steven Wright Roenis Elias Brian Johnson Anderson Espinoza Michael Kopech Christian Vazquez (health) Blake Swihart Hanley Ramirez Travis Shaw Sam Travis Yoan Moncada Pablo Sandoval Rafael Devers Jackie Bradley, Jr. Rusney Castillo Andrew Benintendi [Carson Smith Matt Barnes Pat Light] I can't recall the list ever being this large. I'd be very surprised if any team had a list as long. We can speculate all we want about the shape of the team in 2017 and onward, but the shape of the rotation and starting lineup depends on the performance this year of at least 19 different guys. We wouldn't all be here if we weren't prone to looking ahead to the future, with great interest. We not only have a team that looks like it will be very interesting to watch just at the competitive level, but I don't think we've ever entered a season where what happens at both the MLB and minor league levels will shape our future roster to such a degree. Think of this way: by next winter, for each of these guys, we'll either feel significantly more strongly that they'll be good (either to keep or trade), or feel significantly less strongly that they'll be good, or we'll still be up in the air. Even without the relievers, that's 1.162 billion possible outcomes. I'm too busy to run down the implications of each. But I think it will be really interesting to watch the number of possible combinations get reduced. And this also means that waiting until at least the trading deadline to make any major trade is a must. You just don't know yet what you're going to need, or where you might want to upgrade from good to great, in 2017 and afterwards. So, for how many guys have we at least started to lean towards an answer? PositiveSteven Wright Christian Vazquez (health). No indication of any long-term effects. Hanley Ramirez. He's on a pace for 3.7 bWAR and his 1B defense is already average. Travis Shaw Jackie Bradley, Jr. Neutral (Won't Learn Anything)
Pablo Sandoval
NegativeRusney Castillo Roenis Elias (see below) Furthermore, Josh Ockimey and Michael Chavis have been added to the list of potential impact guys. One health reassurance, four big positive surprises in MLB* and two in low-A, and only one major letdown. I added Elias not so much because he's struggled, but because the emergence of Wright makes it hard to conceive of Elias being one of our five best starters in the foreseeable future. There have been others who have struggled -- Swihart, Owens, Johnson, Devers -- but none have done so to anywhere near the degree it would take to change an opinion. Ditto for the success of Moncada and Benintendi, in that we're still unsure about their ETA. * Wright, Ramirez, Shaw, and Bradley are on a pace for a combined 25.0 bWAR. Who saw that coming? PECOTA projected 4.4. They had 5.4 after 35 games. |
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