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SoxProspects Rankings Discussion
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 7, 2018 10:21:23 GMT -5
Three thumbs up to dd (not that DD!) who does such a great job of summarizing it all. Anymore, I wait until dd posts before I do much thinking about it, it helps you see the forest. Thanks. Glad it's useful. (on the river Main somewhere between Nuremburg & Regensburg ... no baseball here) WOW, sounds great, enjoy. Hope you brought a boat.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 7, 2018 12:32:46 GMT -5
Just wondering, what factors do you consider to make these rankings? Tarot cards, divining rods, gut feelings and the occasional fistfight.Kidding, obviously. The short answer is that these are projections. I'm sure you're aware of the grading system that we publish for the top 20, which hopefully illuminates the subject a little bit. is there anything in particular you're wondering about that I can speak to specifically?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2018 17:03:23 GMT -5
Just wondering, what factors do you consider to make these rankings? Tarot cards, divining rods, gut feelings and the occasional fistfight.Kidding, obviously. The short answer is that these are projections. I'm sure you're aware of the grading system that we publish for the top 20, which hopefully illuminates the subject a little bit. is there anything in particular you're wondering about that I can speak to specifically? Mainly like how do you project their ceiling or floor. What made me ask was that I was surprised to see that Groome has a floor of 3. What makes him have a low floor? Of course, he also has a high ceiling of 7
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 7, 2018 17:23:57 GMT -5
Floor and ceiling are worst and best case scenarios, right? So it's literally projecting what those are.
In Groome's case, his floor factors in things like that he's been often injured, that his body will need consistent monitoring, and that his stuff's been inconsistent. Anybody that low in the minors is going to have a low floor. It's almost, but not quite, a present grade rather than a projection - put this guy in the majors now, what is he? If Groome started at Fenway tomorrow, he'd get crushed.
Make sense?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 31, 2018 14:44:07 GMT -5
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Post by Addam603 on May 31, 2018 14:57:25 GMT -5
Sad to see Groome drop from the #1 spot. I’m assuming that’s because his long term potential is harmed by the Tommy John on top of the other injuries.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 31, 2018 15:01:46 GMT -5
Sad to see Groome drop from the #1 spot. I’m assuming that’s because his long term potential is harmed by the Tommy John on top of the other injuries. He won't have even pitched like 150 pro innings entering 2020, the last season before he's eligible for Rule 5. The timing of his TJ was horrible, particularly considering last year was a lost year for him injury-wise already. There was no question he was going to drop. The question was how far.
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Post by jimed14 on May 31, 2018 15:10:01 GMT -5
Chavis moves up to the top spot while suspended. Sad state of our system.
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Post by Addam603 on May 31, 2018 15:21:11 GMT -5
Sad to see Groome drop from the #1 spot. I’m assuming that’s because his long term potential is harmed by the Tommy John on top of the other injuries. He won't have even pitched like 150 pro innings entering 2020, the last season before he's eligible for Rule 5. The timing of his TJ was horrible, particularly considering last year was a lost year for him injury-wise already. There was no question he was going to drop. The question was how far. I agree with the drop. Just sad to see.
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Post by soxfando on May 31, 2018 15:35:41 GMT -5
Chavis moves up to the top spot while suspended. Sad state of our system. Pretty amazing how quickly and thoroughly the system was emptied.
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Post by widewordofsport on May 31, 2018 15:35:58 GMT -5
Chatham and Groome will be rule 5 draft eligible before playing a full season's worth of game.
I'm a little surprised at Houck jumping Mata, who is doing better at a younger age at the same level. I'm sure it's based on scouting and other nuances beyond the box score, but from a removed perspective, I'm still high on Mata, even over houck.
(edit to reiterate that I know it really doesnt matter 2 vs 3, and its a comment not a criticism from an interested observer)
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dd
Veteran
Posts: 979
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Post by dd on May 31, 2018 18:56:59 GMT -5
Details
Summary:
- Michael Chavis is the new # 1, up from 2.
- Tanner Houk moved up from 4th to the 2nd spot.
- Jason Groome fell from the top to # 4.
- Jalen Gkkes moved up from 8 to 5.
- CJ Chattam jumped from 15 to 8.
- Sam Travis fell from 5 to 10.
- Bobby Dalbec, 10th to 13th.
- Santiago Espinal moved into the top 20. He was 25th last month and is 15th now. He was 53rd in March.
- Raniel Raudes fell from 12 to 16.
- Cole Brannen at 18, down from 13.
- Brett Netzer up from 27 to 20.
- Pedro Castellanos is down to 23rd from 17th.
- Roldani Baldwin rose from 33 to 26.
- Williams Jerez jumped 14 spots from 43 to 29.
- Everlous Lozada, down 5 to 31.
- Lorenzo Cedrola rose 9 up to 32.
- Esteban Quiroz is at 34, up from 40 last month and 46 in April.
- Cole Sturgeon jumped 12 positions from 56 to 44.
- Jordan Weems is ranked 49th. He was last ranked # 50 in May of 2012! His highest rank was at 33 back in 2011.
- Denyi Reyes is ranked for the first time at 51.
- Another first time rankee is Matthew Gorst at 53rd.
- Ryan Brasier at 56 is also new to the top 60.
- Trey Ball fell from 46 to 58.
- Jake Cosart also down 12 from 47 to 59.
- Rounding out the top 60 is yet another first timer, Nelfy Abreu.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 1, 2018 9:16:50 GMT -5
Lakins made a one-inning bullpen appearance yesterday, so he's there now it looks like.
And no - I'd say most of these guys project as bullpen arms at this point. Other than Groome if he were healthy, there's nobody in this system who I'd put money on being an MLB starter, if I'm being honest. Mata and Houck have the best shot, but beyond that, it's all bullpen to me.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,449
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Post by radiohix on Jun 1, 2018 11:40:56 GMT -5
Lakins made a one-inning bullpen appearance yesterday, so he's there now it looks like. And no - I'd say most of these guys project as bullpen arms at this point. Other than Groome if he were healthy, there's nobody in this system who I'd put money on being an MLB starter, if I'm being honest. Mata and Houck have the best shot, but beyond that, it's all bullpen to me.No love for Beeks?
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Post by sarasoxer on Jun 1, 2018 12:02:35 GMT -5
Chavis moves up to the top spot while suspended. Sad state of our system. Pretty amazing how quickly and thoroughly the system was emptied. Looking at our guys..the stats, the write-ups, the milb team performances...woof. It is hard to believe we went from one of the best farms to this...like a rock. And, we will likely draft late for some time. As people here have cited, even first round picks have a 50-50 chance of making it let alone becoming stars...especially ones picked late in the round. So unless luck is on our side, the likelihood of getting impact players from the draft is relatively small. We have exploited the bias against small guys with Mookie, Pedey, etc. but that is likely to be muted as baseball adjusts to a degree. We can no longer throw bucks at international free agents...even if we had the bucks...Japan, Korea, Australia as some exceptions. We are not going to be trading current MLB players for other teams' milb studs. Chavis is the only guy currently that I have significant confidence in being able to help. Houck is now our #2..and while only 21 in Salem,sports a not-so-gaudy 1.88 whip and, in the age where strikeouts are king, has managed a whopping 33 in 45 innings....not a Clemens 2.0. How the hell do we again develop a top system..at least in the relatively near term? Gonna be tough.
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Post by widewordofsport on Jun 1, 2018 12:58:14 GMT -5
Too many other teams get impact players later in the draft for me to think they just need to get up where they can grab a Trey Ball or Jason Groome pick. (Counter being Benintendi, obviously).
I don't think drafting/developing has really been all that good up and down the system lately, and it shows with A/A+ rosters.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jun 1, 2018 14:35:44 GMT -5
Looking at our guys..the stats, the write-ups, the milb team performances...woof. It is hard to believe we went from one of the best farms to this...like a rock. And, we will likely draft late for some time. As people here have cited, even first round picks have a 50-50 chance of making it let alone becoming stars...especially ones picked late in the round. So unless luck is on our side, the likelihood of getting impact players from the draft is relatively small. We have exploited the bias against small guys with Mookie, Pedey, etc. but that is likely to be muted as baseball adjusts to a degree. We can no longer throw bucks at international free agents...even if we had the bucks...Japan, Korea, Australia as some exceptions. We are not going to be trading current MLB players for other teams' milb studs. Chavis is the only guy currently that I have significant confidence in being able to help. Houck is now our #2..and while only 21 in Salem,sports a not-so-gaudy 1.88 whip and, in the age where strikeouts are king, has managed a whopping 33 in 45 innings....not a Clemens 2.0. How the hell do we again develop a top system..at least in the relatively near term? Gonna be tough. If we're going to develop a top system again I think we need to start with two things: - Spend every last dime of our 18-19 international money. I'm a little nervous that we're not currently in a position to do that this year since we're only linked to one of the top 30 prospects. We always spend this money, so I'm sure that gets done. - Spend more money on development. The Royals have $13M to spend on this years draft and we have $6M. The $7M difference needs to be reinvested in development or we lose ground. My suggestion is to start with our pitching. We've got three top prospects in Salem that can't find the the strike zone right now. I want the Red Sox to hire Greg Maddux, throw him in a backpack and strap him on to Mata like they're Yoda & Luke Skywalker, and whisper in his ear until he's painting corners. When he's done, Houck is next. I think we could make that happen with $7M and I live in NC, so I'd go to a few games to watch that whole thing happen. Consult Obi Wan, if available...
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Post by Addam603 on Jun 30, 2018 19:18:25 GMT -5
My favorite time of the month...new rankings out. Some very interesting stuff in there. System looks a lot deeper than before the draft. I like the potential of the rookie ball guys at the back end of the top 60.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 30, 2018 19:57:44 GMT -5
8 recent draftees make the top 60, maybe more next month depending on who signs.
#'s 17, 18, & 19 could be the foundation of a solid bullpen in 2-3 years (along with #26) if they don't trade any of them away.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 30, 2018 22:19:19 GMT -5
Where would Casas have ranked without the thumb injury or was this list determined prior to the out for the season announcement ?
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Post by dirtdog on Jun 30, 2018 22:46:04 GMT -5
Sam Travis in free fall, cant really defend him as his season is turning into a steaming pile. I really had high hopes for him too. Looking like the AAA version of Swihart at this point.
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Post by natesp4 on Jul 1, 2018 7:26:54 GMT -5
Having three guys added to the system with ceilings of a 7 definitely has me excited. That combined with Danny Diaz and Antoni Flores playing well and the upcoming July 2nd guys and the system could start looking good again.
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dd
Veteran
Posts: 979
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Post by dd on Jul 1, 2018 11:54:02 GMT -5
Details
Summary:
- Ranked draftees (Name, age, position, rank, current grade, floor - ceiling):
- Triston Casas 18.4 IF corner 4 4.5, 3 - 7
- Nick Decker 18.7 OF 10 4.5, 3 - 7
- Nick Northcut 19.0 3B 16 4, 2 - 7
- Durbin Feltman 21.2 RHP 17 4, 3 - 6
- Kole Cottam 21.0 C 37
- Jarren Duran 21.8 2B 38
- Thad Ward 21.4 RHB 45
- Brandon Howlett 18.8 3B 53
- Bryan Mata & Tanner Houck switch spots, Mata now 2nd and Houck 3rd.
- Jason Groom slipped another notch from 4 to 5.
- Darwinzon Hernandez, 7 last month, fell just out of the top 10 at # 11.
- Antoni Florez made the top 20 for the first time rising from 25 up to 15. In April he was 34th.
- Ty Buttrey jumped from 28 up to 19, a bigger jump than it seems given the new blood in the system. He was 39th back in April but 19 is still a bit short of his high water mark 3 years ago at 17th.
- Sam Travis continued his fall in the rankings doubling his rank for the 2nd straight month. He was at 5 in May, 10 last month, and 20 now.
- Raniel Raudes dwon from 16 to 22. He was 12th in May.
- Jake Thompson, Cole Brannen, and Tzu-Wei Lin all fell 6 positions and are now at 22 - 24.
- Kutter Crawford down from 21 to 28.
- Pedro Castellanos is at 29 from 23 last month and 17 in May.
- Tylers did well, Esplin up from 37 to 33 and Dearden from 36 to 34.
- Joan Martinez plummeted from 24 down to 40.
- Chad De La Guerra from 33 to 42.
- Denyi Reyes, unranked in May, moved up 8 from 51 to 43.
- Auston Maddox at 47, down from 35. He started the spring ranked 20th.
- Cole Sturgeon jumped 12 positions from 56 to 44.
- Not all Tylers had a good month, Hill down from 39 to 50.
- Nick Duron also down 11 coming in at 51.
- Angel Maita and Cedanne Rafaela, #54 and #56, are both in the top 60 for the first time.
- Tate Matheny dropped from 43 to 58.
- Zach Schellenger fell from 41 to 59.
- Marino Campana barely stayed in the rankings, dropping from 52 to 60.
- No longer in the top 60 are:
- Santiago Espinal, now with the Dunedin Blue Jays, was # 15 last month.
- Hector Velazquez, still here but no longer a prospect, was at 20.
- Cole Sturgeon, from 44.
- Marcus Walden, 45
- Dedgar Jimenez, 47
- Jhon Nunez, 48
- Kyle Martin, 50
- Algenis Martinez, 54
- Aneury Tavarez, 55
- Kyle Hart, 57
- Trey Ball, 58 (5 years ago this month he was # 7 in the system)
- Jake Cosart, 59
- Kyri Washington, 60
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Post by bruinsfan94 on Jul 1, 2018 17:40:02 GMT -5
Without getting ahead of ourselves, how many potential top 100 prospects do we have now? Where does our system rank?I think its still bottom third, but I think it is better then teams like the Royals, M's, Mets, and a few others.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 1, 2018 18:13:47 GMT -5
Without getting ahead of ourselves, how many potential top 100 prospects do we have now? Where does our system rank?I think its still bottom third, but I think it is better then teams like the Royals, M's, Mets, and a few others. For what it's worth, I think before all of this (and possibly before the Espinal trade) the Red Sox were ranked as the 24th best system according to MLBTR. That seems reasonably accurate to me, although I think we did have a good draft and I'm excited to see what the July international market holds for us. I would venture to bet that the ranking would go up before it goes down.
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