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SoxProspects Rankings Discussion
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 1, 2018 19:08:41 GMT -5
Sam Travis in free fall, cant really defend him as his season is turning into a steaming pile. I really had high hopes for him too. Looking like the AAA version of Swihart at this point. FWIW, with four guys entering the rankings ahead of him (minus Espinal), it looks a lot worse than it is. A lot of it is also Diaz and Flores passing him rather than him falling behind them. Guys who fall at all in the July 1 (or July 15 some years) rankings look way worse than they are sometimes. (On the other hand, it makes Flores' climb even more impressive. Up from 25 to 15 but really up 13 spots. Without getting ahead of ourselves, how many potential top 100 prospects do we have now? Where does our system rank?I think its still bottom third, but I think it is better then teams like the Royals, M's, Mets, and a few others. Some sites would probably still say Chavis is a top 100 prospect, but that's it.
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Deleted
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Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2018 16:36:43 GMT -5
Where do we think will Shugart (Reportedly signed) and Machamer (expected to sign) be in the rankings?
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Post by widewordofsport on Jul 2, 2018 18:49:31 GMT -5
Ockimey quiety establishing himself at each level, he's a guy I was not high on.
Mata I would have ranked #1 at the start of the year, and if walks are him struggling with confidence to attack zone, as a super young A+ ball pitcher, its understandable. Hope his K rates dont start to plummet, he's our only hope!
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 13, 2018 13:24:50 GMT -5
buuuuuuuuuuump
(admittedly won't be a ton going on here, and Lopez/Machamer are the only new guys getting ranked given how early they got everyone from the draft signed)
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 13, 2018 14:32:55 GMT -5
OK, we live. I'll just list the changes:
Dalbec up to 9 from 12, projection up to 4.5 Lin up to 20 from 25 Duran up to 28 from 38 Raudes down to 31 from 22 Reyes up to 33 from 43 Lopez debuts at 36 Machamer debuts at 53
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 13, 2018 14:34:47 GMT -5
My take: 1-20 is still weaker than you'd like it to be, but the 41-60 seems about right again after being really weak to start the year after what feels like a good draft depth-wise and fewer graduations and trades than some years. There are legitimately interesting unranked players right now, which really wasn't the case four months ago. There's a lot of depth and a LOT of players bunching together - someone like Schellenger or Howlett or Machamer could zoon from the 50s to top 30 really quickly.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 13, 2018 14:36:52 GMT -5
Since it's coming: I know some will ask why Dalbec isn't up more. The fact is he's currently on a two-week (or so) hot streak. Heck, it might already be over given that he's 1 for his last 8 with 5 strikeouts. It's just not good policy to go nuts with a guy's ranking every time he goes off and has a hot streak.
If Dalbec continues to rake, he'll continue moving up even on the 8/1 update. If he doesn't, he'll stay where he is or conceivably could even slide back down. It's kind of a fluid situation in terms of ranking him that isn't unique, but is sort of rare.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 13, 2018 14:42:38 GMT -5
My take: 1-20 is still weaker than you'd like it to be, but the 41-60 seems about right again after being really weak to start the year after what feels like a good draft depth-wise and fewer graduations and trades than some years. There are legitimately interesting unranked players right now, which really wasn't the case four months ago. Honestly, at this point I'm kind of ok with like 6 or 8 or so downward. Not in terms of them being a good system again, but in the sense it's not a dumpster fire looking at the first page anymore. The 4's still start a bit earlier than you'd like, but the top 3 guys in that tier are all hurt and could easily step up into the 4.5 tier if healthy, and then the next two are draftees who could similarly move up. The problem is the top prospect is a 5, and he's also the only 5. There's still a black hole in terms of high-end talent. Maybe Casas steps up there (I spoke to a special assignment scout in Potomac who LOVED Casas and thought it was nuts he fell that far, which was good to hear), but it's going to be a bit before anyone steps up into that 5.5 and up area.
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dd
Veteran
Posts: 979
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Post by dd on Jul 31, 2018 20:59:40 GMT -5
Details
Summary:
- Bobby Dalbec rose from 12 up to 6, still short of his highest ranking in April '17.
- Durban Feltman is up from 17 to 11.
- Nick Northcut moved from 16 to 13.
- Tzu Wei Lin jumped 7 positions from 25 to 18.
- Jarren Duran soared from 38 up to 20.
- Kutter Crawford from 28 to 21.
- Jhonathan Diaz came in at 25, up 7.
- Tyler Dearden is also up 7, now ranked # 27.
- Denyl Reyes is up 14 from 43 to 28.
- Eduardo Lopez is ranked for the first time at 31.
- Ryan Brasier up from 57 to 32.
- Pedro Castellanos down from 29 to 33.
- Ditto Rodani Baldwin, down for to 34.
- Juan Martinez move up from 35 to 30.
- Thad Ward up 5 to # 40.
- Brandon Howlett out of the bottom 10, from 53 to 42.
- Justin Haley up from 48 to 44.
- Chandler Shepherd dropped from 41 to 45.
- Jordan Weems is at 46, up 3.
- Emmanuel De Jesus is # 48, ranked for the first time since he was # 50 in February 2017.
- Chris Machamer is rankedfor the first time at 49.
- Eduard Bazardo is also ranked for the first time and is at 50.
- Austin Maddox dropped 4 positions coming in at 51.
- Zach Schellenger is # 53, up 6 from last month.
- 6th rounder Devlin Granberg is ranked for the first time at 54th.
- Tyler Hill fell from 50 to 55
- William Cuevas is # 57. He was last ranked 50th on 9/1/16.
- Nick Duron at 58, down 7.
- Last but not least, ranked for the first time this month is Tony Renda.
- No longer ranked are the 4 guys traded:
- Jalen Beeks (6)
- Ty Buttrey (19)
- Williams Jerez (28)
- Lorenzo Cedrola (31)
- ... and
- Andre Colon (52)
- Nelfy Abreu (55)
- Tate Matheny (58)
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Post by soxin8 on Aug 1, 2018 10:39:38 GMT -5
Is it wrong for me to think the system is deep if Howlett and Gorst are in the 40's? I am wondering where Howlett will place on BA's end of year GCL top 20.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 2, 2018 8:19:20 GMT -5
Would certainly like to see our #1 not batting .152, but 80 games off is 80 games off...hoping the rust comes off soon.
Those 26 HR for Dalbec sure look good....is Portland on the radar screen for him any time soon?
Feltman debuts at 11!
and, sad to see Travis in his decline.
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dd
Veteran
Posts: 979
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Post by dd on Aug 31, 2018 19:49:39 GMT -5
Details
Summary:
- A few guys swapped places near the top:
- Jason Groome from 5 to 4 and Triston Casas the reverse.
- CJ Chatham and Darwinzon Hernandez both moved up to 7 & 8 at the expense of Mike Shawaryn who is now at 9.
- Durbin Feltman and Josh Ockimey flipped and are now 10 & 11
- Travis Lakins up from 17 to 13.
- Alex Scherff fell from 14 to 16.
- Brandon Howlett jump up by 25, 42 to 17!
- Tzu-Wei Lin and Sam Travis both fell 2, now 20 & 21.
- Denyl Reyes move up from 28 to 24. 2 months ago he was 43 2 months ago.
- Brett Netzer fell 3, now at 25.
- Jhonathan Diaz at 28, down 3.
- Zach Schellenger's stock went up by 24, 53 to 29.
- Tyler Dearden down from 27 to 32.
- Devlin Granberg another one who soared in the rankings, up from 54 to 33.
- Chase Shugart is ranked for the first time at # 33.
- Tyler Esplin dropped 7 spots to 37.
- Eduard Bazardo up by 8, from 50 to 42. (There's great hope here. What a name for a closer!)
- Roldani Baldwing fell 15, 34 to 49.
- Marino Campana up from 59 to 50.
- Yasel Santana in the top 60 for the first time. He's at 52.
- Cole Brennen plummeted from 26 to 54, down by 28!
- Jeremy Rivera is at 59. He was last ranked at 48 in May.
- Yoan Abar, last ranked in July of '17, rounds out the top 60
- Missing from last month are:
- Austin Maddox, 51 last time;
- Tyler Hill, 55;
- William Cuevas, 56;
- Cedanne Ravaela, 57:
- Nick Duron, 58;
- and of course Ryan Brasier who graduated.
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Post by daveinbangkok on Sept 1, 2018 11:00:46 GMT -5
Why isn’t Tanner Nishioka cracking the top 60 list. A senior sign a little old for A ball, still hitting over 300, some power , Ops over 800. His name is often in the highlights?
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Post by Mike Andrews on Sept 1, 2018 11:50:06 GMT -5
Nishioka was considered and right on the cusp. The deciding factor was age - he's more than a little old for his level. The average age for the SAL is 21.3 and he is 23.9. For example, he's 3 months older than Jeremy Rivera, who is starting 2 levels higher and ranked #59.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 1, 2018 13:51:23 GMT -5
Just my two cents but Shawaryn seems rather low in the new rankings. A lot of that seems tied to his rather bad debut in AAA in which you scouted him. How many times have you guys scouted him? Given his results I just find it hard to believe that he is pitching like that everynight or that he has that much velocity drop every start. Yet his bio now states his velocity drops off after the 4th, like it happens every start. Yet his first AAA start was by far his worst. Is this a case of he can't maintain velocity or he can't maintain velocity when his mechanics get messed up?
I just had to ask because I don't see how he has pitch so well this year if his fastball goes to crap after 3-4 innings every start and his change up is crap. I know he has a very good slider, but that's not close to enough to do well against AA and AAA hitters all year long. Which he has done.
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Post by manfred on Sept 1, 2018 14:11:41 GMT -5
Just my two cents but Shawaryn seems rather low in the new rankings. A lot of that seems tied to his rather bad debut in AAA in which you scouted him. How many times have you guys scouted him? Given his results I just find it hard to believe that he is pitching like that everynight or that he has that much velocity drop every start. Yet his bio now states his velocity drops off after the 4th, like it happens every start. Yet his first AAA start was by far his worst. Is this a case of he can't maintain velocity or he can't maintain velocity when his mechanics get messed up? I just had to ask because I don't see how he has pitch so well this year if his fastball goes to crap after 3-4 innings every start and his change up is crap. I know he has a very good slider, but that's not close to enough to do well against AA and AAA hitters all year long. Which he has done. I wonder if he still profiles as a likely reliever? I feel like that tends to drop guys a bit. Lakins, for example, despite great numbers, is out of the top-10. I think the idea is that a guy like, say, Chatham may not have as good odds of contributing but since he is a SS, his smaller odds make him a higher prospect than the next, say, Heath Hembree. I can see it both ways. A 5 reliever is more fungible than a 5 SS, but a guy like Shawryn who seems like he could be a decent reliever now also seems preferable to a SS who might be good in a few years.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 1, 2018 15:15:50 GMT -5
Just my two cents but Shawaryn seems rather low in the new rankings. A lot of that seems tied to his rather bad debut in AAA in which you scouted him. How many times have you guys scouted him? Given his results I just find it hard to believe that he is pitching like that everynight or that he has that much velocity drop every start. Yet his bio now states his velocity drops off after the 4th, like it happens every start. Yet his first AAA start was by far his worst. Is this a case of he can't maintain velocity or he can't maintain velocity when his mechanics get messed up? I just had to ask because I don't see how he has pitch so well this year if his fastball goes to crap after 3-4 innings every start and his change up is crap. I know he has a very good slider, but that's not close to enough to do well against AA and AAA hitters all year long. Which he has done. I wonder if he still profiles as a likely reliever? I feel like that tends to drop guys a bit. Lakins, for example, despite great numbers, is out of the top-10. I think the idea is that a guy like, say, Chatham may not have as good odds of contributing but since he is a SS, his smaller odds make him a higher prospect than the next, say, Heath Hembree. I can see it both ways. A 5 reliever is more fungible than a 5 SS, but a guy like Shawryn who seems like he could be a decent reliever now also seems preferable to a SS who might be good in a few years. My point was he's done very well starting at AA and AAA. That is when you really start to know about how a guy can preform in the bigs. Why I asked if his velocity drop is he can't physically maintain it or he just loses velocity when his delivery goes. If I had to guess given his performance it's when his delievery goes. If that is the case he can be a starter, heck given his stats it sure seems he's able to keep his delivery for most starts. It's just a given with guys like him with a funky delievery that everyone thinks bullpen. Yet up to this point he's done very well starting. The bar to be a 4/5 starter in this league isn't very high. We are very spoiled with a crazy good rotation this year. Chatham is a guy that I have a problem being ranked higher. They are the same age, yet one is doing well in AAA and the other in high A. Even if Shawaryn is seen as a reliever, I don't see how Chatham is higher rated. Shawaryn was more impressive in A ball at a younger age and Chatham has a long way to go to prove himself that he can play in the majors. What if he's just a bench guy? If Shawaryn is just a reliever I think he could be a lot better than Hembree. It will be highly intrested to see how he does in AFL in that role. Certain guys see a jump in velocity when being able to go all out for an inning, compared to saving yourself for 5-6 innings. With his arm angle and how that hides the ball, if he sits around 94-95 in a relievers role, with his slider he could be a weapon. Nevermind if he can increase his velocity higher than that, as 95 was his peak while starting. He's done a lot better at limiting hits during his age 23 season than Matt Barnes was able to do. Which is why I question him not being able to maintain velocity in all his starts. Maybe I'm just being a homer, but I see a guy that could be a set-up guy or even a closer if moved to the bullpen. Just to add I don't think Lakins ranking is just a bullpen role, just he's only done it for a short period.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 3, 2018 20:17:20 GMT -5
Just my two cents but Shawaryn seems rather low in the new rankings. A lot of that seems tied to his rather bad debut in AAA in which you scouted him. How many times have you guys scouted him? Given his results I just find it hard to believe that he is pitching like that everynight or that he has that much velocity drop every start. Yet his bio now states his velocity drops off after the 4th, like it happens every start. Yet his first AAA start was by far his worst. Is this a case of he can't maintain velocity or he can't maintain velocity when his mechanics get messed up? I just had to ask because I don't see how he has pitch so well this year if his fastball goes to crap after 3-4 innings every start and his change up is crap. I know he has a very good slider, but that's not close to enough to do well against AA and AAA hitters all year long. Which he has done. We've seen him multiple times this year and gotten reports on him from others - the velocity drop is consistent, as is the stuff. It's also not the only reason he fell. Darwinzon Hernandez seems to have turned a corner, has better stuff, is almost 2 years younger, and is a LHP, for example (I had him at 7 on my list and felt pretty strongly, fwiw). I think that's a case of Darwinzon passing him now that he may have figured out the walks thing. And we've heard all year that the projection is RP on him. Frankly, I think it is on Darwinzon too. I believe the reason the Red Sox reportedly gave for why those two will throw in relief in the AFL. However, I also think they're going to be very interested in seeing how those two look out of the bullpen.
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,781
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Post by mobaz on Sept 4, 2018 8:20:33 GMT -5
We've seen him multiple times this year and gotten reports on him from others - the velocity drop is consistent, as is the stuff. It's also not the only reason he fell. Darwinzon Hernandez seems to have turned a corner, has better stuff, is almost 2 years younger, and is a LHP, for example (I had him at 7 on my list and felt pretty strongly, fwiw). I think that's a case of Darwinzon passing him now that he may have figured out the walks thing. And we've heard all year that the projection is RP on him. Frankly, I think it is on Darwinzon too. I believe the reason the Red Sox reportedly gave for why those two will throw in relief in the AFL. However, I also think they're going to be very interested in seeing how those two look out of the bullpen. If neither of those two are starters, it makes this minor league season more frustrating. Houck is still 50-50 or so Starter/Reliever, Groome and Mata lost sheen and had significant injuries, Scherff/Thompson/Roudes took huge steps back. There's no clear path to even a Brian Johnson 6-7th starter type in the next 2 years, much less a major league rotation member. It also makes this years draft a little confounding, since most of the pitchers are clearly relief-bound as well.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 4, 2018 8:38:56 GMT -5
We've seen him multiple times this year and gotten reports on him from others - the velocity drop is consistent, as is the stuff. It's also not the only reason he fell. Darwinzon Hernandez seems to have turned a corner, has better stuff, is almost 2 years younger, and is a LHP, for example (I had him at 7 on my list and felt pretty strongly, fwiw). I think that's a case of Darwinzon passing him now that he may have figured out the walks thing. And we've heard all year that the projection is RP on him. Frankly, I think it is on Darwinzon too. I believe the reason the Red Sox reportedly gave for why those two will throw in relief in the AFL. However, I also think they're going to be very interested in seeing how those two look out of the bullpen. If neither of those two are starters, it makes this minor league season more frustrating. Houck is still 50-50 or so Starter/Reliever, Groome and Mata lost sheen and had significant injuries, Scherff/Thompson/Roudes took huge steps back. There's no clear path to even a Brian Johnson 6-7th starter type in the next 2 years, much less a major league rotation member. It also makes this years draft a little confounding, since most of the pitchers are clearly relief-bound as well.I don't think there's such thing as a player who projects as an MLB starting pitcher in the third round or later. And you're not going to draft a starting pitcher of Triston Casas because of near-term need. Certainly not if you think Casas is a better player. After that, basically anyone your drafting is going to have a likely reliever path. That doesn't make them doomed to relief or whatever - they're going to try the next Travis Lakins as a starter, and every so often you'll end up with an Eduardo Rodriguez who goes from a relief projection to "yeah, I think this guy can hold in the rotation." And I disagree strongly that Scherff took a huge step back. He was challenged with a placement in Greenville (incorrectly, in my opinion) despite having identifiable delivery issues. He then struggled exactly like you'd expect a high school draftee whose delivery was a mess in the South Atlantic League to struggle. Then, gradually, he put things together, before suffering a non-arm injury. The fact that he battled a league he shouldn't have been placed at should earn him a lot of credit. I'm actually higher on him now than I was in March.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 4, 2018 10:46:02 GMT -5
If neither of those two are starters, it makes this minor league season more frustrating. Houck is still 50-50 or so Starter/Reliever, Groome and Mata lost sheen and had significant injuries, Scherff/Thompson/Roudes took huge steps back. There's no clear path to even a Brian Johnson 6-7th starter type in the next 2 years, much less a major league rotation member. It also makes this years draft a little confounding, since most of the pitchers are clearly relief-bound as well.I don't think there's such thing as a player who projects as an MLB starting pitcher in the third round or later. And you're not going to draft a starting pitcher of Triston Casas because of near-term need. Certainly not if you think Casas is a better player. After that, basically anyone your drafting is going to have a likely reliever path. That doesn't make them doomed to relief or whatever - they're going to try the next Travis Lakins as a starter, and every so often you'll end up with an Eduardo Rodriguez who goes from a relief projection to "yeah, I think this guy can hold in the rotation." And I disagree strongly that Scherff took a huge step back. He was challenged with a placement in Greenville (incorrectly, in my opinion) despite having identifiable delivery issues. He then struggled exactly like you'd expect a high school draftee whose delivery was a mess in the South Atlantic League to struggle. Then, gradually, he put things together, before suffering a non-arm injury. The fact that he battled a league he shouldn't have been placed at should earn him a lot of credit. I'm actually higher on him now than I was in March. If you look at Scherff's game log, he was basically bad in April and fine after that save for the game in which he got hurt.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 4, 2018 22:07:55 GMT -5
I do hope they keep Darwinzon as a starter for as long as possible. Just way more value there, especially if he maintains his velocity deep into games. The soxprospects staff would know better than any of us if you guys at least somewhat think he ends up a reliever though.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 4, 2018 23:51:39 GMT -5
Just my two cents but Shawaryn seems rather low in the new rankings. A lot of that seems tied to his rather bad debut in AAA in which you scouted him. How many times have you guys scouted him? Given his results I just find it hard to believe that he is pitching like that everynight or that he has that much velocity drop every start. Yet his bio now states his velocity drops off after the 4th, like it happens every start. Yet his first AAA start was by far his worst. Is this a case of he can't maintain velocity or he can't maintain velocity when his mechanics get messed up? I just had to ask because I don't see how he has pitch so well this year if his fastball goes to crap after 3-4 innings every start and his change up is crap. I know he has a very good slider, but that's not close to enough to do well against AA and AAA hitters all year long. Which he has done. We've seen him multiple times this year and gotten reports on him from others - the velocity drop is consistent, as is the stuff. It's also not the only reason he fell. Darwinzon Hernandez seems to have turned a corner, has better stuff, is almost 2 years younger, and is a LHP, for example (I had him at 7 on my list and felt pretty strongly, fwiw). I think that's a case of Darwinzon passing him now that he may have figured out the walks thing. And we've heard all year that the projection is RP on him. Frankly, I think it is on Darwinzon too. I believe the reason the Red Sox reportedly gave for why those two will throw in relief in the AFL. However, I also think they're going to be very interested in seeing how those two look out of the bullpen. So he can't maintain velocity, or he always loses his delievery causing his velocity drop? I only ask because I'm really surprised a guy with his frame, loses like two grades on his fastball after 3-4 innings every start. Then while doing that has a lower OPS against for those 4-6 innings. Are we talking he's 92-94 topping out at 95 then 89-91 topping out at like 93? So its more like one grade and not two? Just trying to figure out what's really going on, because I really look at Shawaryn as a big part of our future. His numbers look really good starting, yet I now question that. What's the big difference between Lin and Chatham in your opinion?
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Post by ramireja on Sept 5, 2018 12:55:02 GMT -5
We've seen him multiple times this year and gotten reports on him from others - the velocity drop is consistent, as is the stuff. It's also not the only reason he fell. Darwinzon Hernandez seems to have turned a corner, has better stuff, is almost 2 years younger, and is a LHP, for example (I had him at 7 on my list and felt pretty strongly, fwiw). I think that's a case of Darwinzon passing him now that he may have figured out the walks thing. And we've heard all year that the projection is RP on him. Frankly, I think it is on Darwinzon too. I believe the reason the Red Sox reportedly gave for why those two will throw in relief in the AFL. However, I also think they're going to be very interested in seeing how those two look out of the bullpen. So he can't maintain velocity, or he always loses his delievery causing his velocity drop? I only ask because I'm really surprised a guy with his frame, loses like two grades on his fastball after 3-4 innings every start. Then while doing that has a lower OPS against for those 4-6 innings. Are we talking he's 92-94 topping out at 95 then 89-91 topping out at like 93? So its more like one grade and not two? Just trying to figure out what's really going on, because I really look at Shawaryn as a big part of our future. His numbers look really good starting, yet I now question that. What's the big difference between Lin and Chatham in your opinion? I can't answer for Chris or Ian or anyone else who has seen him live, but I just posted a scouting report from 2080 baseball in the Shawaryn thread that touches on some of this. In those looks he started 92-93 but dropped to 89-90.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 6, 2018 9:36:58 GMT -5
Ian wrote up Shawaryn's first AAA start, as UMass alluded to, and he'll have a quick follow up on I think his third start potentially coming soon (he and Mike have been kicking ass getting the player page scoring reports up to speed, a long-necessary project that's been a lot of work, so that's been taking precedent). You can check that scouting scratch and I think the next start was more of the same.
BTW, season-end podcast questions welcome at the usual spot.
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