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SoxProspects Rankings Discussion
Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2019 11:27:20 GMT -5
1. Casas 2. Duran 3. Dalbec 4. Hernandez
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on May 30, 2019 12:09:01 GMT -5
Hernandez Duran Cassas Groome
I am a more high floor person. Hernandez is a power reliever at worse, so he has the highest floor to me. If he refines a 3rd pitch and control could be a number two pitcher! Duran will be a major league player just because he has plus plus speed. Upside of a leadoff hitter who steals 40 bases and hits .300. Cassas has a floor is an organalzation power bat. He has the most upside, but his hit tool needs to improve a lot to be a major league. I hope he improves, but I rarely have seen a player improve enough. Love his power though!! Groome by default at number Mata is young and has both a solid floor and upside. Not as much upside as Groome, but it is close! Dalbec is to low of a hit tool to be higher. One of my favorite players in our system.
These 6 players our close except for Dalbec.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 30, 2019 12:14:55 GMT -5
The drop in Dalbec's LD% this year (and really since his promotion to Portland last year) is concerning to me, and kind of negates the encouragement in the drop in his K rate. Showing he make that more consistent contact is a positive for sure, but he's not keeping that contact quality consistent while doing so. And I'm not saying he can't do it, just that it's enough of a flag that I can't overlook it. I'd have him, Groome, and Houck closer together at 4/5/6 with the other three (Casas, Duran, Hernandez in some order) a clear step ahead of them. He's still maintaining a healthy power hitter's GB/FB ratio at .80 though, and I tend to put a little more faith in that than LD%.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 30, 2019 13:02:59 GMT -5
HOW IS NOBODY GETTING THE FOUR IN ORDER??? I had no idea this would be so difficult. Lol. I do love seeing the opinions though. Keep 'em coming! Maybe it's because you got your four in the wrong order.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 30, 2019 15:20:30 GMT -5
HOW IS NOBODY GETTING THE FOUR IN ORDER??? I had no idea this would be so difficult. Lol. I do love seeing the opinions though. Keep 'em coming! Maybe it's because you got your four in the wrong order. lol, funny.
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Post by caseytins on May 30, 2019 17:34:29 GMT -5
HOW IS NOBODY GETTING THE FOUR IN ORDER??? I had no idea this would be so difficult. Lol. I do love seeing the opinions though. Keep 'em coming! I'll play. I'm going to guess your order is: 1. Casas 2. Hernandez 3. Duran 4. Dalbec I agree that this is the order that will be up. I have Mata 4, personally.
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Post by carmenfanzone on May 30, 2019 17:39:43 GMT -5
I know its only been 1 game at AAA, but I find it hard to believe there are 50 better prospects in the system than Hart at this time.
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Post by iakovos11 on May 30, 2019 18:41:26 GMT -5
I know its only been 1 game at AAA, but I find it hard to believe there are 50 better prospects in the system than Hart at this time. There aren't. And Chris has already admitted he'll make big, well-deserved, jump. 35, I think he mentioned. 30-ish would seem to make sense right now.
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Post by bruinsfan94 on May 30, 2019 19:06:38 GMT -5
I'd probably go with
Casas Hernandez Duran Groome
Not sure why people are so high on dalbac.
The rest of my top 10 would be
Meta Houck Feltman Dalbac Chatham and one of the real young ones like Flores or Howlet to round it out.
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Post by Mike Andrews on May 30, 2019 19:19:27 GMT -5
New rankings are up.
Change to the top banner as well. You might need to hit ctrl+shift+refresh to update that
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Post by Coreno on May 30, 2019 19:52:56 GMT -5
Personally, I'd go:
Casas Duran Darwinzon Dalbec
Looks like its:
Casas Dalbec Duran Darwinzon
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dd
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Post by dd on May 30, 2019 21:16:38 GMT -5
... and the winners are ... Casas, Dalbec, Duran, and Hernandez. That's exactly what I would have guessed but I didn't want to show off! Details
Summary:
- Casas is at the top, up from # 3 last month.
- Dalbec followed behind him from 4.
- Duran is up 6 spots from 9 to 3.
- Darwinzon Hernandez is 4th, down from 2.
- Tanner Houck fell from 5 to 7.
- Bryan Mata up from 11 to 9.
- Josh Ockimey moved up from 22 to 18, still well short of his high point at 4 as of 2 years ago today.
- Thad Ward jump from 30 up to 22.
- Denyi Reyes up from 28 to 23.
- Josh Taylor is at 25, up from 31.
- Marcus Wilson drop 5 positions down to 26.
- Ryan Fitzgerald, ranked for the first time in April at 56 and then 37th last month, is now at 28.
- Joan Martinez up from 32 to 29.
- Brett Netzer, from 24 down to 30.
- Zach Schellenger at # 32, down 6 this month and 12 since April.
- Devlin Granberg comes in at 34th, up 7.
- The BIG WINNER this month is Kyle Hart. He was unranked in April, 55th in May, and is in the top 40 now at # 35.
- Eduardo Bazardo (the guy whose name sounds like Kimbrel looked on the mound) is up from 45 to 36.
- Aldo Ramirez up 8 at # 41.
- Jhonathan Diaz down from 35 to 42 ... and Jonathan Diaz down from 42 to 45. (Mike was trying to see if I was awake! :-) No doubt that I missed something else though, sigh.)
- Emmanuel De Jesus had the 2nd biggest jump going from 59 to 43.
- Angel Maita, 43 down to 46.
- Jordan Weems, 40 to 48.
- Jhon Nunez is at 53. H was last ranked at 48 exactly a year ago.
- Chris Machamer at 55, down 9.
- Adam Lau ranked for the first time at 56.
- Jake Cosart, last ranked at 59 a year ago, is 57th.
- Rio Gomez ranked for the first time at 58
- Tony Renda, last ranked 58 on 9/1/18, is 59th.
- Alan Marrero squeaked into the top 60 for the first time.
- Dropping out in June:
- Marino Campana from 47.
- Ceddanne Rafaela from 51.
- Osvaldo De La Rosa from 52.
- Andrew Schwaab from 54
- Tanner Nishioka from 56.
- Chandler Shepherd from 58 (Now a Cub).
- Kervin Suarez from 60.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 30, 2019 22:43:42 GMT -5
Great job as always by dd and the staff.
It appears that the most disagreement with the posters and SP (of the top 4) is with Dalbec.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 30, 2019 23:00:02 GMT -5
Great job as always by dd and the staff. It appears that the most disagreement with the posters and SP is with Dalbec. Yeah, I still like my order better. Don't get me wrong - I do have hope for Dalbec. I just think his certainty < Duran's certainty. I get that Duran strikes out more than you'd like, but he plays a key defensive position that the Red Sox are going to need to fill by 2021 plus he's a leadoff hitter, which might be of use to the Red Sox, allowing Benintendi to drop down to a more middle of the order type of spot, and his speed could be a huge plus. With Dalbec, it's hard to know if he'll curb his Ks enough to keep his BA viable enough to let his walks and HRs shine through. Frankly, I'm not as sure he gets the opportunity with the Red Sox because Dombrowski is somebody who likes to trade from surplus and that's what Dalbec kind of is. I doubt they shift Devers over to 1b for Dalbec. Maybe Dalbec gets a crack at the open 1b job next year now that Chavis looks like he's needed for 2b? Or perhaps it's Ockimey who gets the chance instead? Either way I think there's less of a path for Dalbec and while he has massive power and can draw the walk to get on base, I don't know that his hit tool is strong the way I think Duran's hit tool is pretty strong. That's why I'd pick Duran 2nd and Dalbec 3rd. Yes, it's possible Dalbec could have more impact if he winds up a .240 hitting 3b with 35 HRs and 80 walks per year and Duran winds up just a utility type - but I don't really see that happening with Duran. He's not going to hit .400 in AA, but I can see him hitting .280 - .300 with 30 plus steals per year, and a bunch of gap doubles and some triples, playing a key CF position possibly getting on base enough to be the leadoff hitter.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 30, 2019 23:08:39 GMT -5
Great job as always by dd and the staff. It appears that the most disagreement with the posters and SP is with Dalbec. Yeah, I still like my order better. Don't get me wrong - I do have hope for Dalbec. I just think his certainty < Duran's certainty. I get that Duran strikes out more than you'd like, but he plays a key defensive position that the Red Sox are going to need to fill by 2021 plus he's a leadoff hitter, which might be of use to the Red Sox, allowing Benintendi to drop down to a more middle of the order type of spot, and his speed could be a huge plus. With Dalbec, it's hard to know if he'll curb his Ks enough to keep his BA viable enough to let his walks and HRs shine through. Frankly, I'm not as sure he gets the opportunity with the Red Sox because Dombrowski is somebody who likes to trade from surplus and that's what Dalbec kind of is. I doubt they shift Devers over to 1b for Dalbec. Maybe Dalbec gets a crack at the open 1b job next year now that Chavis looks like he's needed for 2b? Or perhaps it's Ockimey who gets the chance instead? Either way I think there's less of a path for Dalbec and while he has massive power and can draw the walk to get on base, I don't know that his hit tool is strong the way I think Duran's hit tool is pretty strong. That's why I'd pick Duran 2nd and Dalbec 3rd. Yes, it's possible Dalbec could have more impact if he winds up a .240 hitting 3b with 35 HRs and 80 walks per year and Duran winds up just a utility type - but I don't really see that happening with Duran. He's not going to hit .400 in AA, but I can see him hitting .280 - .300 with 30 plus steals per year, and a bunch of gap doubles and some triples, playing a key CF position possibly getting on base enough to be the leadoff hitter. I'll bet Duran hits at least .333 in AA. 1,2,3,4 not much to quibble about, just minor stuff but I have Casas and Duran as level above Hernandez and Dalbec. The one I disagree with most is Chatham. I'm just not seeing a second division utility player there.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 30, 2019 23:35:41 GMT -5
Yeah, I still like my order better. Don't get me wrong - I do have hope for Dalbec. I just think his certainty < Duran's certainty. I get that Duran strikes out more than you'd like, but he plays a key defensive position that the Red Sox are going to need to fill by 2021 plus he's a leadoff hitter, which might be of use to the Red Sox, allowing Benintendi to drop down to a more middle of the order type of spot, and his speed could be a huge plus. With Dalbec, it's hard to know if he'll curb his Ks enough to keep his BA viable enough to let his walks and HRs shine through. Frankly, I'm not as sure he gets the opportunity with the Red Sox because Dombrowski is somebody who likes to trade from surplus and that's what Dalbec kind of is. I doubt they shift Devers over to 1b for Dalbec. Maybe Dalbec gets a crack at the open 1b job next year now that Chavis looks like he's needed for 2b? Or perhaps it's Ockimey who gets the chance instead? Either way I think there's less of a path for Dalbec and while he has massive power and can draw the walk to get on base, I don't know that his hit tool is strong the way I think Duran's hit tool is pretty strong. That's why I'd pick Duran 2nd and Dalbec 3rd. Yes, it's possible Dalbec could have more impact if he winds up a .240 hitting 3b with 35 HRs and 80 walks per year and Duran winds up just a utility type - but I don't really see that happening with Duran. He's not going to hit .400 in AA, but I can see him hitting .280 - .300 with 30 plus steals per year, and a bunch of gap doubles and some triples, playing a key CF position possibly getting on base enough to be the leadoff hitter. I'll bet Duran hits at least .333 in AA. 1,2,3,4 not much to quibble about, just minor stuff but I have Casas and Duran as level above Hernandez and Dalbec. The one I disagree with most is Chatham. I'm just not seeing a second division utility player there. I worded it unclearly. I do expect Duran to top .300 at AA. When I said .280 - .300 with 30 plus steals per year, and a bunch of gap doubles and some triples, etc - I meant as a major leaguer in Boston. I do believe he will be a regular on the Red Sox. I think he'll be kind of similar to Ellsbury, not quite Ellsbury, but not too far off.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 30, 2019 23:59:58 GMT -5
I'll bet Duran hits at least .333 in AA. 1,2,3,4 not much to quibble about, just minor stuff but I have Casas and Duran as level above Hernandez and Dalbec. The one I disagree with most is Chatham. I'm just not seeing a second division utility player there. I worded it unclearly. I do expect Duran to top .300 at AA. When I said .280 - .300 with 30 plus steals per year, and a bunch of gap doubles and some triples, etc - I meant as a major leaguer in Boston. I do believe he will be a regular on the Red Sox. I think he'll be kind of similar to Ellsbury, not quite Ellsbury, but not too far off. lol, OK, makes more sense. I see him as equal in bottom line output (value) to Ellsbury but with better hit, less power, better arm and better speed. Range is an unknown. To me, his game will be similar to Brett Gardner except he'll have a more even distribution of balls to all fields. ADD: He's going to be a run scoring machine. Even on a comparatively weak hitting team, he's scoring a run a game. That's something my all time favorite player to watch, Ricky Henderson, only accomplished once.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 31, 2019 10:01:45 GMT -5
FWIW, there was robust debate on Dalbec vs Duran at 2. It's a pick 'em for us. That Dalbec was the one ahead to begin with was not an insignificant part of it.
I agree Duran probably has a higher floor. But Dalbec probably has a higher ceiling. For me, an above-average defender at third that hits 30 bombs tops Duran's reasonable best-case scenario.
The difficulty evaluating Duran's power in the Carolina League doesn't help.
Meanwhile, Dalbec cutting his strikeouts has been a very big development.
Presuming Duran is in Portland shortly, that should help shed some light on the situation. If Duran goes to Portland and keeps doing the same thing, it won't be a question, for me.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 31, 2019 10:36:09 GMT -5
FWIW, there was robust debate on Dalbec vs Duran at 2. It's a pick 'em for us. That Dalbec was the one ahead to begin with was not an insignificant part of it. I agree Duran probably has a higher floor. But Dalbec probably has a higher ceiling. For me, an above-average defender at third that hits 30 bombs tops Duran's reasonable best-case scenario. The difficulty evaluating Duran's power in the Carolina League doesn't help. Meanwhile, Dalbec cutting his strikeouts has been a very big development. Presuming Duran is in Portland shortly, that should help shed some light on the situation. If Duran goes to Portland and keeps doing the same thing, it won't be a question, for me. Chris, I have to ask.... Do you think Dalbec is better or will be better than Devers defensively? Do you think that there's a decent chance that Dalbec and Devers man the infield corners for Boston in the not-so-distant future? Or do you think it's more likely Dalbec gets traded away because perhaps if he wound up at 1b he'd lose some of his value should the Sox judge Devers to be the overall better defensive 3b going forward? Or are you of the mind that Devers would probably shift to 1b (His offense would definitely carry at 1b, too) and Dalbec would wind up at 3b? I probably should have qualified my questions beforehand with - IF Dalbec develops as hoped for.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 31, 2019 12:58:26 GMT -5
Dalbec probably winds up better at third, but I wouldn't love moving either to first, honestly.
We don't consider a player's path to playing time in Boston at all, by the way, when ranking. It's a straight value in a vacuum proposition.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 31, 2019 13:26:53 GMT -5
Dalbec probably winds up better at third, but I wouldn't love moving either to first, honestly. We don't consider a player's path to playing time in Boston at all, by the way, when ranking. It's a straight value in a vacuum proposition. Understood. No qualms with the way you rank them. I don't quite agree with Dalbec vs Duran but I can see your point of view re: ceiling versus floor. I was looking at floor and risk - and yes, I shouldn't have - but I was also looking at Boston opportunity as well, but yes, your point is well taken. After all, if you look at Moncada's or Kopech's value, even if you don't look at "opportunity" there is also the value of what they could fetch in a trade - you figure somewhere they would play when you're making your evaluations - even if it's not necessarily in Boston. I'm not a huge fan of moving either to 1b, too, although if Dalbec forces the issue, then that's a good thing. Ultimately I believe that 1b will be in the hands of Casas for at least 6 plus years. I do drink the koolaid on this kid - I'm a believer, but I do recognize he has a long way to go from A ball to Boston and anything can happen. I just think it the kid stays healthy, he will succeed - from everything I've read I love his attitude, and I do think he's a legit #1 rated prospect. 1b is often bat only profile, but I do believe Casas will be good defensively, and that the bat will play no matter where he is on the diamond. The Red Sox did very well getting him with the - was it the 24th pick of the draft? - last year. Hope they can strike gold again with pick #43 this year. For no particular reason I like Isaiah Campbell with that pick (and Nick Quintana at pick 69).
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 31, 2019 16:24:41 GMT -5
Like I said, Dalbec vs Duran was razor thin for us. It was very nearly ranked the other way. Either side is defensible.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on May 31, 2019 17:03:23 GMT -5
The one I disagree with most is Chatham. I'm just not seeing a second division utility player there. Yeah, he's always been highly ranked by SP here even when he was injured for his first 2 seasons. I don't see what's special about an often injured 24 year old slap hitter in AA with no approach at the plate.
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Post by telson13 on May 31, 2019 17:52:16 GMT -5
I'll bet Duran hits at least .333 in AA. 1,2,3,4 not much to quibble about, just minor stuff but I have Casas and Duran as level above Hernandez and Dalbec. The one I disagree with most is Chatham. I'm just not seeing a second division utility player there. I worded it unclearly. I do expect Duran to top .300 at AA. When I said .280 - .300 with 30 plus steals per year, and a bunch of gap doubles and some triples, etc - I meant as a major leaguer in Boston. I do believe he will be a regular on the Red Sox. I think he'll be kind of similar to Ellsbury, not quite Ellsbury, but not too far off. Duran is within a week of Ellsbury’s age at the same point in their careers, but he’s got the half-year headstart (signed early) and has vastly outperformed Ellsbury. I’m actually pretty confident he’ll be a better player. Might not be quite as good with routes, but has a better arm. Might not be a better basestealer (Ellsbury was excellent in that regard), but probably hits for more pop, especially 2b. I also like Duran’s approach more...his LD oppo style is going to keep the BABIPs high; Elks was typically .320-.330 early on, but it was mostly speed. He tended to pull the ball a bit (hence that onecrazy power surge year, where he had a bunch of barely-BP/pole HR), but I think Duran sprays it and will take advantage of the Wall better. I know it’s a tall order, cuz Ellsbury was a regular 3-4 WAR guy, but I’ll take Duran. Not to say it’s “more likely,” cuz probabalistically that’s just not true, but I’m very bullish.
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Post by caseytins on Jun 4, 2019 18:30:48 GMT -5
Assuming the top 10 sign, where would you place them in the top 60 on this site?
Real quick, here is my view:
Lugo @ 5 Cannon @ 6 Song @ 12 * (this is a tough one) Zeferjahn @ 13 Groshans @ 25 Scroggins @ 30 Murphy @ 34 Bell @ 38 Scott @ 40 Dalton @ 42
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