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SoxProspects Rankings Discussion
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 2, 2019 9:10:45 GMT -5
I think that's a good point and is apparent in the "drop" by Howlett from 11 to 18 even though I'd say nobody is really lower on him than they were a year ago. Basically everyone who has passed him is new into the system, been guys nobody was familiar with who have made big splashes this year (Ward and Ramriez), or been true breakouts (Duran and Jimenez). I don't understand how Cannon is ranked above Howlett. Howlett is much younger, in a better league, and putting up better numbers across the board. Defensively, Cannon is a liability out there with 11 Errors, and Keith Law rated Cannon a 20-25 defender. I don't see Cannon ever being able to reach the majors, while I think Howlett has the ability to get there. Well, I think you're putting too much stock in 2 things: 1) 2 spots in that 11-20 group (I think having Howlett above Cannon is perfectly reasonable, for the reasons you state), and 2) Cannon's small sample debut. On the first part, let me be clear that what follows is a look into some of my thinking on that, but I'm definitely not arguing against you. I had then right next to each other and easily could've flipped them. For me, having seen both this year, I can't say I'm super high on either. Ranking Howlett was very difficult, because one needs to take into account his aggressive assignment this year. On the other hand, he struck out at a 31% clip. He struggled mightily save for a period during the middle of the year when his numbers turned around, but I'm not certain that wasn't just a period of better BABIP luck. His swing was kind of all over the place and very rotational (as opposed to attacking the pitch). I also didn't love what I saw from him in the field either - mechanically he struck me as kind of awkward at third. That said, grain of salt when your only look at a guy is August of his first full season. I'm very interested to see how he looks next spring after an offseason of rest. As for Cannon, like I said, I'm not a terribly huge fan of his either or anything, but as I always preach, it's a bad idea to read too much into Lowell or GCL numbers in either direction. As far as Law's comment that he is a 20 defender, having seen him a couple times in games where he got a good amount of reps on D, I vehemently disagree. Cannon definitely isn't a shortstop (and for those who listened to the podcast with Mike Rikard, I'm not sure the Sox FO thinks he is either based on what they've seen based on his comments), but I could see him working himself into being a fringe-average second baseman. If the bat develops sufficiently, that'll play. Like I said, not necessarily disagreeing with your evaluation of the 2, and Howlett is someone I need to look closer at before the official EOY rankings, but that was some of what I was thinking.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Sept 2, 2019 10:19:18 GMT -5
Disapppointing year end ranings. Of the mid guys who were in the 20-60 group, none really had a breakout year into the top 10 other than Jimenez. Howlett, Flores, Northcutt and even Decker treatded water to stay in that range. Potential break out newcomers like Vaughan and Lopez didn't, as only Lopez is in the 40-50 range. First rounder (though signable) is a weak prospect seemingly unexiting to SP, and Lugo showed some spark. So, there's a lot more volume to the rankings, but none really distinguished themselves. I'm not sure how you could look at where this farm system is now compared to where it was in April and consider it anything less than a massive victory. There's still no true blue chip guy (although Casas inches closer every day) but it is still night and day given how depleted it was at the start of the year. A quick summary: Casas, Dalbec, Mata, Duran, Darwinzon all cement themselves in some way or another. I think you could easily make the case that every one of those players improved their stock this year, many of them by a lot. There were breakouts, big or small, from Gilberto, Thad Ward, Brayan Bello, Chase Shugart, Ceddane Rafaela, and I'm sure I'm missing more. The org added a lot of talent through the draft, including everyone's favorite steal Noah Song. But really, rounds 1-7 all look like they could deliver some real value and there are interesting pieces scattered beyond that as well. They added Marcus Wilson via trade, who looks to have figured out a thing or two and could potentially be a fourth or fifth outfielder. Jay Groome is back! And there were also so many guys this year that popped up that you could see as relievers in Boston (I know that doesn't sound exciting but consider the current team). The system is so, so much better. Top to bottom. I'm not sure if you were expecting someone to make a jump into a Moncada or Devers tier of prospect but that's not really how this works. For what the Red Sox could've reasonably accomplished, I'd say they did an A- job rebuilding the system this year.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 2, 2019 10:29:13 GMT -5
Above post is seconded.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 2, 2019 13:19:45 GMT -5
I'm not sure how you could look at where this farm system is now compared to where it was in April and consider it anything less than a massive victory. There's still no true blue chip guy (although Casas inches closer every day) but it is still night and day given how depleted it was at the start of the year. When you consider the fact of the draft and the introduction of the J2 guys, this will always be true for every org., if you measure it by volume. But in terms of impact (addressed below), I wouldn't say any 2019 draft guy other than Song has overperformed. The Cannon/Lugo duo seems like what you would expect on the two top paid guys (treated as a package). Not really counting on a Devers or Moncada guy, because they didn't have a highly paid guy like that ready to make a splash. But if you look at the 2017 J2 guys, Flores had a rough year, barely holding his own (when he started the year as a potential top 5 kid), and our second-highest J2 guy, Diaz was sent back to the DSL. I'd call that unpleasant. For the 2018 J2 guys, Lopez was the highest paid, and he struggled but eventually pulled out a decent DSL debut. Gonzalez and Bonacci started out as houses on fire, but eventually settled to "promising" seasons. Since this is a ratings thread, and bearing in mind James Dunne's comments that their ranking is very loose, I would have like to see one of the guys with enough buzz to get into the top 25. Instead, we have all outside the top 40. Other highly paid guys like Santana seems like a miss, and Feliz is promising enough. For the 2018 draft, they saved money in the top 10 to sign Decker and Northcutt, Machamer and Howlett. Of those, Decker did enough to maintain his top 15 ranking. Howlett overperformed last year, but this year, as Hatfield said, was less promising. Finally, Machamer didn't sustain his Lowell promise. And for the 2019 draft, the monied guys outside the top 10 didn't come out of the gate strong. Cellucci, Loubier and Simas for example, had rougher transitions. Now, all of the above might fall into the Hatfield "don't judge a guy by his rookie league stats," and I hope so. I love Antoni Flores as the type of kid who easily could bounce back into the top 10 next year. Yes, the volume is a lot better than the filler prospects in the ratings last September. But the new, higher upside prospects, didn't push their way into the ratings as I had hoped. And not just the lack of a "Devers" sort of year, but even a "top 10 Baseball America minor league wrapup rating." So in conclusion, yes, it is so much better than last October, but considering the next wave started to fill in the rankings, it seems to be more volume than performance to date. More you can dream on, but more volatility rather than guys you can feel good about their trajectory.
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Post by soxjim on Sept 2, 2019 14:16:21 GMT -5
I'm not sure how you could look at where this farm system is now compared to where it was in April and consider it anything less than a massive victory. There's still no true blue chip guy (although Casas inches closer every day) but it is still night and day given how depleted it was at the start of the year. When you consider the fact of the draft and the introduction of the J2 guys, this will always be true for every org., if you measure it by volume. But in terms of impact (addressed below), I wouldn't say any 2019 draft guy other than Song has overperformed. The Cannon/Lugo duo seems like what you would expect on the two top paid guys (treated as a package). Not really counting on a Devers or Moncada guy, because they didn't have a highly paid guy like that ready to make a splash. But if you look at the 2017 J2 guys, Flores had a rough year, barely holding his own (when he started the year as a potential top 5 kid), and our second-highest J2 guy, Diaz was sent back to the DSL. I'd call that unpleasant. For the 2018 J2 guys, Lopez was the highest paid, and he struggled but eventually pulled out a decent DSL debut. Gonzalez and Bonacci started out as houses on fire, but eventually settled to "promising" seasons. Since this is a ratings thread, and bearing in mind James Dunne's comments that their ranking is very loose, I would have like to see one of the guys with enough buzz to get into the top 25. Instead, we have all outside the top 40. Other highly paid guys like Santana seems like a miss, and Feliz is promising enough. For the 2018 draft, they saved money in the top 10 to sign Decker and Northcutt, Machamer and Howlett. Of those, Decker did enough to maintain his top 15 ranking. Howlett overperformed last year, but this year, as Hatfield said, was less promising. Finally, Machamer didn't sustain his Lowell promise. And for the 2019 draft, the monied guys outside the top 10 didn't come out of the gate strong. Cellucci, Loubier and Simas for example, had rougher transitions. Now, all of the above might fall into the Hatfield "don't judge a guy by his rookie league stats," and I hope so. I love Antoni Flores as the type of kid who easily could bounce back into the top 10 next year. Yes, the volume is a lot better than the filler prospects in the ratings last September. But the new, higher upside prospects, didn't push their way into the ratings as I had hoped. And not just the lack of a "Devers" sort of year, but even a "top 10 Baseball America minor league wrapup rating." So in conclusion, yes, it is so much better than last October, but considering the next wave started to fill in the rankings, it seems to be more volume than performance to date. More you can dream on, but more volatility rather than guys you can feel good about their trajectory. Mata, Dalbec and Duran look promising, don't they?
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 2, 2019 14:40:17 GMT -5
I personally do not put much stock into the performance of high school draftees until they're in their 2nd full season after being drafted. There is so much to learn and work on physically and their bodies are not anywhere close to at their peak. But then there are guys like Casas.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 2, 2019 16:55:13 GMT -5
Disapppointing year end ranings. Of the mid guys who were in the 20-60 group, none really had a breakout year into the top 10 other than Jimenez. Howlett, Flores, Northcutt and even Decker treatded water to stay in that range. Potential break out newcomers like Vaughan and Lopez didn't, as only Lopez is in the 40-50 range. First rounder (though signable) is a weak prospect seemingly unexiting to SP, and Lugo showed some spark. So, there's a lot more volume to the rankings, but none really distinguished themselves. I mean, you're completely ignoring Duran and Ward as guys who broke out and jumped into the top 10, and ignoring Zeferjahn and Murphy in your discussion of this year's draft in your other post. I'm not going to say 2019 has been rainbows and lollipops, but from where the system started the year, where it stands now is about as good as one could reasonably have expected it to get. The system was without question a bottom-5 system entering the year. I'd bet it's more a 18-24 range system now, without looking.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Sept 2, 2019 22:01:41 GMT -5
I'm not sure how you could look at where this farm system is now compared to where it was in April and consider it anything less than a massive victory. There's still no true blue chip guy (although Casas inches closer every day) but it is still night and day given how depleted it was at the start of the year. When you consider the fact of the draft and the introduction of the J2 guys, this will always be true for every org., if you measure it by volume. But in terms of impact (addressed below), I wouldn't say any 2019 draft guy other than Song has overperformed. The Cannon/Lugo duo seems like what you would expect on the two top paid guys (treated as a package). Not really counting on a Devers or Moncada guy, because they didn't have a highly paid guy like that ready to make a splash. But if you look at the 2017 J2 guys, Flores had a rough year, barely holding his own (when he started the year as a potential top 5 kid), and our second-highest J2 guy, Diaz was sent back to the DSL. I'd call that unpleasant. For the 2018 J2 guys, Lopez was the highest paid, and he struggled but eventually pulled out a decent DSL debut. Gonzalez and Bonacci started out as houses on fire, but eventually settled to "promising" seasons. Since this is a ratings thread, and bearing in mind James Dunne's comments that their ranking is very loose, I would have like to see one of the guys with enough buzz to get into the top 25. Instead, we have all outside the top 40. Other highly paid guys like Santana seems like a miss, and Feliz is promising enough. For the 2018 draft, they saved money in the top 10 to sign Decker and Northcutt, Machamer and Howlett. Of those, Decker did enough to maintain his top 15 ranking. Howlett overperformed last year, but this year, as Hatfield said, was less promising. Finally, Machamer didn't sustain his Lowell promise. And for the 2019 draft, the monied guys outside the top 10 didn't come out of the gate strong. Cellucci, Loubier and Simas for example, had rougher transitions. Now, all of the above might fall into the Hatfield "don't judge a guy by his rookie league stats," and I hope so. I love Antoni Flores as the type of kid who easily could bounce back into the top 10 next year. Yes, the volume is a lot better than the filler prospects in the ratings last September. But the new, higher upside prospects, didn't push their way into the ratings as I had hoped. And not just the lack of a "Devers" sort of year, but even a "top 10 Baseball America minor league wrapup rating." So in conclusion, yes, it is so much better than last October, but considering the next wave started to fill in the rankings, it seems to be more volume than performance to date. More you can dream on, but more volatility rather than guys you can feel good about their trajectory. It's absolutely not true that every organization is naturally going to be better at the end of each year due to volume. Look at what happened to the Red Sox organization the last two years where it became far worse (for good reason). I strongly disagree with you but I'll shorten it to two major points. 1. I think you're overlooking a lot of really important breakouts that did happen this year that were both surprising and impactful relative to cost. Yeah, maybe Brainer and Gonzalez didn't continue their hot starts. But for guys that didn't command 7-figure bonuses, the fact that they're promising at all is a great sign. And those three post-10th round draftees didn't come out of the gate hot but it's a half season on top of whatever season they were playing before that, and we had guys in that range like Davis and Bakst that did perform well, so you're just cherry picking guys. 2. I do not care, at all, what happens with other organization's farm systems like you mention in your first sentence. It's not fair to compare the Red Sox system to, say, the Padres or the Marlins. The Red Sox not only are consistently picking 20 spots behind those teams but are spending prospects to win a World Series in the now (which, in case anyone forgot, they did), while the Padres and the Marlins are hoarding prospects by selling their stars. It's not the same, and very rarely will it ever be the same. There will be perfect storm years like the Dodgers are having now and like the Sox had in 2016, but those are the exception and not the rule.
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Post by larrycook on Sept 2, 2019 22:13:20 GMT -5
Another thing to consider when comparing farm systems is how many graduations we have had over the past several years and how high quality those graduates have been,
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Sept 2, 2019 22:40:54 GMT -5
Another thing to consider when comparing farm systems is how many graduations we have had over the past several years and how high quality those graduates have been, Yep, most teams would be lucky to get one homegrown guy as good as a Betts, Bogaerts, or Devers in a given five-year span. Let alone all three. Plus Benintendi, JBJ, Vazquez, (sorta) E-rod..
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 3, 2019 4:48:26 GMT -5
He thinks you're talking about Ceddanne Rafaela (who is ranked 34th). Even then, I have no idea how it could be inerpreted as you hating on him. LOL, he sent me a message entitled racist. My family will be shocked. ADD: And I'd have ranked him higher than SP does. We chatted it out in PM and we're good. He misunderstood an Americanism expression in another thread but we're good now. No biggie.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 7, 2019 5:04:06 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 7, 2019 5:32:30 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 7, 2019 8:09:46 GMT -5
I'll have to see what Ian thinks of that on the slider, but... wasn't really enamored with the pitch in my one viewing this year. At least at the LeLacheur viewing angle it blends into the curve. Similar velo band.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 7, 2019 8:17:28 GMT -5
I'll have to see what Ian thinks of that on the slider, but... wasn't really enamored with the pitch in my one viewing this year. At least at the LeLacheur viewing angle it blends into the curve. Similar velo band. The story is somewhat about the evolution of several of the pitching prospects and the direction the Sox are taking. Among other things, "minor league pitching coordinator of performance", Dave Bush was quoted. With YAP, I was more surprised by the uptick in velocity that Ian tweeted about but I haven't seen anyplace that SP mentioned a slider.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 7, 2019 9:34:03 GMT -5
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Post by soxcentral on Sept 7, 2019 11:00:26 GMT -5
From that article, interesting line of thinking heading into the off-season:
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alnipper
Veteran
Living the dream
Posts: 619
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Post by alnipper on Sept 24, 2019 11:49:39 GMT -5
I have been very very busy or unable to give my input in my personal rankings. First off, you guys do a great job with ranking players! Each and every year the site improves in ranking prospects. I am no expert by ANY means. Our system is very weak as we know, but shows promise.
1. Bryan Mata (Upside of a 2-3) 2. Triston Casas 3. Thad Ward (Upside of a 2-3) 4. Noah Song (Upside of a 2-3) 5. Jarren Duran 6. Jay Groome(could be 1 by June 2020) 7. Gilbero Jimenez (could be 1 by June 2020)
8. Bobby Dalbec 9. Tanner Houck
10. CJ Chatham 11. Matthew Lugo 12. Chris Murphy 13. Cameron Cannon 14. Nick Decker 15. Ryan Zeferjahn 16. Aldo Ramirez 17. Brandon Howlett 18. Bryan Bello 19. Chase Shugart 20. Eduard Bazardo
21. Brock Bell 22. Mike Shawaryn 23. Antoni Flores 24. Marcus Wilson 25. Yoan Aybar 26. Durbin Feltman 27. Jhonathan Diaz 28. Jorge Rodriguez 29. Pedro Castellanos 30. Kutter Crawford 31. Ryan Firzgerald 32. Denyi Reyes 33. Travis Lakins 34. Alex Scherff
35. Ceddanne Rafaela 36. Nick Northcut 37. Danny Diaz 38. Eduard Lopez 39. Daniel Bakst 40. Devlin Granberg
41. Kyle Hart 42. Janathan Diaz 43. Bryan Gonzalez 44. AJ Polliti (Could surprise in 2020!) 45. Kole Cottam 46. Yoelvis Guedez 47. Joan Martinez 48. Stephen Scott 49. Brainer Bonaci 50. Eduardo Lopez 51. Osvaldo De La Rosa 52. Darel Belen (An ommission on purpose?) 53. Albert Feliz 54. Alex Zapete 55. Dean Miller 56. Blake Laubier 57. Wilker Vargas 58. Jose Navas 59. Yoelvis Guedez 60. Juan Chacon
Danny Diaz Has shown poor power, poor hit tool and poor defense. Hopefully 2020 will be better. Anyways, that is my current rankings.
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Post by boydhurstlovechild on Sept 24, 2019 23:08:27 GMT -5
I have been very very busy or unable to give my input in my personal rankings. First off, you guys do a great job with ranking players! Each and every year the site improves in ranking prospects. I am no expert by ANY means. Our system is very weak as we know, but shows promise. 1. Bryan Mata (Upside of a 2-3) 2. Triston Casas 3. Thad Ward (Upside of a 2-3) 4. Noah Song (Upside of a 2-3) 5. Jarren Duran 6. Jay Groome(could be 1 by June 2020) 7. Gilbero Jimenez (could be 1 by June 2020) 8. Bobby Dalbec 9. Tanner Houck 10. CJ Chatham 11. Matthew Lugo 12. Chris Murphy 13. Cameron Cannon 14. Nick Decker 15. Ryan Zeferjahn 16. Aldo Ramirez 17. Brandon Howlett 18. Bryan Bello 19. Chase Shugart 20. Eduard Bazardo 21. Brock Bell 22. Mike Shawaryn 23. Antoni Flores 24. Marcus Wilson 25. Yoan Aybar 26. Durbin Feltman 27. Jhonathan Diaz 28. Jorge Rodriguez 29. Pedro Castellanos 30. Kutter Crawford 31. Ryan Firzgerald 32. Denyi Reyes 33. Travis Lakins 34. Alex Scherff 35. Ceddanne Rafaela 36. Nick Northcut 37. Danny Diaz 38. Eduard Lopez 39. Daniel Bakst 40. Devlin Granberg 41. Kyle Hart 42. Janathan Diaz 43. Bryan Gonzalez 44. AJ Polliti (Could surprise in 2020!) 45. Kole Cottam 46. Yoelvis Guedez 47. Joan Martinez 48. Stephen Scott 49. Brainer Bonaci 50. Eduardo Lopez 51. Osvaldo De La Rosa 52. Darel Belen (An ommission on purpose?) 53. Albert Feliz 54. Alex Zapete 55. Dean Miller 56. Blake Laubier 57. Wilker Vargas 58. Jose Navas 59. Yoelvis Guedez 60. Juan Chacon Danny Diaz Has shown poor power, poor hit tool and poor defense. Hopefully 2020 will be better. Anyways, that is my current rankings. I like that you have Yo elvis in there twice. I have him occupying 3 spots.
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Post by ramireja on Oct 23, 2019 13:06:24 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 23, 2019 13:14:06 GMT -5
Gilberto rose from #20 to #4 this season even with all the draftees added. What a breakout.
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dd
Veteran
Posts: 979
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Post by dd on Oct 23, 2019 14:03:02 GMT -5
The season's over for the sox but the silver lining is that it's over for the Yankees too ... and they weren't expecting it!
Details
Summary:
- Triston Casas & Bryan Mata stayed atop the list, but ...
- Jason Groome and Gilberto Jiminez moved up to 3 and 4 from 5 and 6 respectively while ...
- Bobby Dalbec and Jarren Duran moved down 2 spots from 3 & 4.
- Noah Song and CJ Chatham voth moved up a notch to 8th & 9th.
- Thad Ward is # 10, down 2.
- Ryan Zeferjahn moved up 3 from 14 to 11.
- Aldo Ramirez is at #12, up from 17 on 9/1, 29 on 8/1, and 40 on 7/15.
- Matthew Lugo dropped from 11 to 13.
- Nick Decker down from 12 to 15.
- Brayan Bello up from 20 to 17.
- Antoni Flores fell 5 positions down to 18.
- Ceddanne Rafaela rose from 34 to 19, one position for each letter in his name!
- Pedro Castellanos up from 26 to 21.
- Brand Howlett went the other way, 18 to 22.
- Jorge Rodriguez, at # 23, matched Rafaela ... except that his name is one letter shorter.
- Durbin Feltman, 21 to 24.
- Eduard Bazardo, 28 to 25.
- Mike Shawaryn (27) and Kutter Crawford (29) both down 5 spots.
- Chase Shugart dropped from 23 to 31.
- Nick Northcut fell 10 positions landing at # 37.
- Darel Belen is ranked for the first time at 35.
- Brainier Bonaci up 16 from 56 to 40.
- Brayan Gonzalez down 7 to # 41.
- Denyi Reyes at 42, down 6.
- Yoelvis is at 44. That's up 2 from last month but up 10 since 8/1.
- Josh Ockimey, ranked # 4 in the spring of '17, id down 5 and now at # 45.
- Blake Loubier up from 55 to 49.
- Devlin Granbeg down from 42 to 50.
- Kole Cottam, 44 to 51.
- Emmanuel De Jesus fell 10 down to # 55.
- Yusniel Padron-Artiles is ranked for the first time at 58.
- Luis Perales, a 22nd round pick in '18, is ranked for the first time at #60 to round out the rankings.
- Jhon Nunez (49 last month), Stephen Scott (54), and Daniel McGrath (60) all fell out of the top 60.
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Post by dmaineah on Oct 23, 2019 14:15:12 GMT -5
Chase Shugart from 23 to 31 is the biggest ranking miss ever by this site.
Any explanation?
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 23, 2019 14:16:39 GMT -5
Luis Perales is an international free agent out of Venezuela who has not yet debuted.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 23, 2019 15:32:26 GMT -5
Chase Shugart from 23 to 31 is the biggest ranking miss ever by this site. Any explanation? I don't think he really dropped in a meaningful way. 3 of the 6 spots were Rafaela and Rodriguez making big jumps and Castellanos moving up, the other 3 spots were just shuffling among the rest of the current or future RP in that 24 to 31 group (which you could probably put in any order, really). I had him at 21 last month and in reconsideration was probably a shade high on him. I have him at 27 in my rankings.
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