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John Farrell: To fire or not to fire...
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Post by sibbysisti on May 14, 2016 19:50:36 GMT -5
He was banned, one of three or four folks that we've banned since the transition from proboards. So waiting for his return would be fruitless? I'd like to be hopeful. To put it another way, you would be "Waiting for Godot". Right, Mr. Beckett?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 16, 2016 2:42:09 GMT -5
This is a day out of date now, but I couldn't wait.
Very simple stat: relief IP, multiplied by Leverage Index, pro-rated for games on the active roster. Ideally, it should be in order of quality; while a mop-up guy might pitch 3 innings at a shot, his LI should be a fifth or a sixth of what your elite guys are seeing. Numbers that follow are two measures of quality: rank of SIERA and WPA/LI/G.
53.5 William Cuevas (12, 12) 25.0 Koji Uehara (5, 5) 24.0 Craig Kimbrel (1, 7) 20.6 Heath Hembree (6, 1) 15.8 Junichi Tazawa (3, 4) 14.1 Matt Barnes (8, 8) 13.4 Noe Ramirez (9, 10) 10.0 Robbie Ross (2, 2) 7.4 Roenis Elias (11, 11) 5.9 Tommy Layne (7, 6) 3.6 Carson Smith (4, 3) 0.2 Pat Light (10, 9)
Of the 8 regular relievers, the guy who has surprisingly pitched the best is being used as the #6 option, while the unquestioned #8 is getting 40% more effective innings as the #5. The AAAA guy who was even worse was used nearly as much. The guy ranked #3 or maybe #2 pre-season has been used as the #8 since coming off the DL while pitching exactly as expected; we lost one game while he watched rusting from the bullpen and nearly lost another today. And the desperation emergency callup was somehow allowed to pitch in such high leverage (while predictably losing the game) that he tops the metric by a mile.
The Smith thing is just baffling. But the other stuff reflects a simple pattern: he brings Hembree and Barnes into crucial situations in the 5th and 6th and leaves them in to pitch medium and long relief, even though he has four elite one-inning relievers, a good LOOGY, and another middle reliever who has pitched like an elite one. With Hembree, this has sometimes made sense, but (like today) it sometimes hasn't, and it has never remotely made sense with Barnes.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 25, 2016 17:36:18 GMT -5
Here's a ranking of setup reliever usage.
This is the correlation of the reliever quality score (see the How to Improve thread) with the Leverage used at, weighted by games pitched.
Team Corr B. Jays 0.94 Orioles 0.92 Yankees 0.83 Rays 0.81 Pirates 0.78 Marlins 0.75 Rangers 0.74 Braves 0.59 Tigers 0.58 Dbacks 0.58 Brewers 0.57 Cards 0.55 Mets 0.52 Cubs 0.49 Royals 0.46 Twins 0.38 Reds 0.34 Rockies 0.28 Red Sox 0.27 Padres 0.20 Angels 0.19 Wh Sox 0.18 Astros 0.04 Marin's -0.23 Nats -0.33 A's -0.66 Dodgers -0.79 Indians -0.97 (Phillies and Giants only had 3 qualifying guys).
Not only do our four division rivals have the four best managed bullpens in MLB, they all have closers who rank ahead of Kimbrel -- the AL East has the 1st, 2nd, 4th, 6th, and 8th closers by this metric (Miller, Britton, Colome, Osuna, and Kimbrel).
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 25, 2016 17:50:25 GMT -5
Is the quality score independent of that leverage? I better go visit that thread.
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Post by ray88h66 on May 25, 2016 17:54:37 GMT -5
This years team keeps making this thread look silly. John is average. Unless you have a lunatic like Boobby V the difference between good and bad managing isn't enough to debate.
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Post by telson13 on May 25, 2016 17:58:59 GMT -5
This years team keeps making this thread look silly. John is average. Unless you have a lunatic like Boobby V the difference between good and bad managing isn't enough to debate. Except in the playoffs, where offenses sputter sometimes, and relief pitching is paramount.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 25, 2016 21:09:08 GMT -5
This is a day out of date now, but I couldn't wait. Very simple stat: relief IP, multiplied by Leverage Index, pro-rated for games on the active roster. Ideally, it should be in order of quality; while a mop-up guy might pitch 3 innings at a shot, his LI should be a fifth or a sixth of what your elite guys are seeing. Numbers that follow are two measures of quality: rank of SIERA and WPA/LI/G. 53.5 William Cuevas (12, 12) 25.0 Koji Uehara (5, 5) 24.0 Craig Kimbrel (1, 7) 20.6 Heath Hembree (6, 1) 15.8 Junichi Tazawa (3, 4) 14.1 Matt Barnes (8, 8) 13.4 Noe Ramirez (9, 10)10.0 Robbie Ross (2, 2) 7.4 Roenis Elias (11, 11)5.9 Tommy Layne (7, 6) 3.6 Carson Smith (4, 3) 0.2 Pat Light (10, 9)
Of the 8 regular relievers, the guy who has surprisingly pitched the best is being used as the #6 option, while the unquestioned #8 is getting 40% more effective innings as the #5. The AAAA guy who was even worse was used nearly as much. The guy ranked #3 or maybe #2 pre-season has been used as the #8 since coming off the DL while pitching exactly as expected; we lost one game while he watched rusting from the bullpen and nearly lost another today. And the desperation emergency callup was somehow allowed to pitch in such high leverage (while predictably losing the game) that he tops the metric by a mile. The Smith thing is just baffling. But the other stuff reflects a simple pattern: he brings Hembree and Barnes into crucial situations in the 5th and 6th and leaves them in to pitch medium and long relief, even though he has four elite one-inning relievers, a good LOOGY, and another middle reliever who has pitched like an elite one. With Hembree, this has sometimes made sense, but (like today) it sometimes hasn't, and it has never remotely made sense with Barnes. I wonder how much the data gets skewed by high volume offenses on a roll. Not the usage of bad pitchers in tight spots but the other side. It seems that quite often this year, Farrell has used a quality reliever in a blowout to get them some work. There's a rotation of sorts that goes with a bullpen and big leads or tight games don't always fall into a neat little pile. Example, right now Tazawa is pitching with a 7 run lead but hasn't been in a game for a few days (since the 21st).
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on May 26, 2016 0:08:09 GMT -5
This is a day out of date now, but I couldn't wait. Very simple stat: relief IP, multiplied by Leverage Index, pro-rated for games on the active roster. Ideally, it should be in order of quality; while a mop-up guy might pitch 3 innings at a shot, his LI should be a fifth or a sixth of what your elite guys are seeing. Numbers that follow are two measures of quality: rank of SIERA and WPA/LI/G. 53.5 William Cuevas (12, 12) 25.0 Koji Uehara (5, 5) 24.0 Craig Kimbrel (1, 7) 20.6 Heath Hembree (6, 1) 15.8 Junichi Tazawa (3, 4) 14.1 Matt Barnes (8, 8) 13.4 Noe Ramirez (9, 10)10.0 Robbie Ross (2, 2) 7.4 Roenis Elias (11, 11)5.9 Tommy Layne (7, 6) 3.6 Carson Smith (4, 3) 0.2 Pat Light (10, 9)
Of the 8 regular relievers, the guy who has surprisingly pitched the best is being used as the #6 option, while the unquestioned #8 is getting 40% more effective innings as the #5. The AAAA guy who was even worse was used nearly as much. The guy ranked #3 or maybe #2 pre-season has been used as the #8 since coming off the DL while pitching exactly as expected; we lost one game while he watched rusting from the bullpen and nearly lost another today. And the desperation emergency callup was somehow allowed to pitch in such high leverage (while predictably losing the game) that he tops the metric by a mile. The Smith thing is just baffling. But the other stuff reflects a simple pattern: he brings Hembree and Barnes into crucial situations in the 5th and 6th and leaves them in to pitch medium and long relief, even though he has four elite one-inning relievers, a good LOOGY, and another middle reliever who has pitched like an elite one. With Hembree, this has sometimes made sense, but (like today) it sometimes hasn't, and it has never remotely made sense with Barnes. I wonder how much the data gets skewed by high volume offenses on a roll. Not the usage of bad pitchers in tight spots but the other side. It seems that quite often this year, Farrell has used a quality reliever in a blowout to get them some work. There's a rotation of sorts that goes with a bullpen and big leads or tight games don't always fall into a neat little pile. Example, right now Tazawa is pitching with a 7 run lead but hasn't been in a game for a few days (since the 21st). It's true that these offenses will suppress the LI's of all the top relievers, but they shouldn't be reduced any more than the mop-up guys. And when you have a high-volume offense, the high-leverage situations are actually less common, and there's no excuse for not matching up your best relievers to them. The poor correlation that the Sox had in the table I posted today is essentially because he's used everyone more or less equally except for Uehara. He seems to have no intent of matching better guys to higher-leverage situations. Average quality is actually -0.24; these are normalized against qualifying relievers. Name Quality inLI Junichi Tazawa 1.76 1.06 Robbie Ross 1.60 0.82 Koji Uehara 0.88 1.43 Heath Hembree -0.01 0.98 Matt Barnes -0.69 0.84 Among 173 qualifying relievers, the five guys here rank 18th, 25th, 57th, 91st, and 122nd. There's no way that the 5th and 6th guys in a pen should ever have LI's that high except for a team that has played a ton of close and extra inning games. Given how much garbage time there has been, it's unimaginable that their LI's nearly match the guys who have pitched 2nd and 3rd best. I've noted the use of Barnes in very high-lev situations when Ross was available in the game threads.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 12, 2016 2:01:52 GMT -5
I posted this on a game day thread but this is a appropriate thread to post this also-
Farrell pinch ran Ortiz for Stephen Wright and got Wright injured doing so.
He took until August to realize that Mookie is the second best run producer on the Sox.
He infrequently uses Robbie Ross jr especially in high leverage innings, even though he has been great in these situations and has been the most reliable reliever in the bullpen this year.
He continually bats Hanley cleanup and fifth in the line-up when Hanley is the 6th or 7th best hitter all season.
He used Chris Young in Cf this year when he's the Sox worst defensive outfielder all year outside of Michael Martinez. He also used Chris Young in the ninth innings to get him at bats, when Young should of pinched hit for.
He uses his worst relievers in the highest leverage situations all the time (Hembree, Abad, Layne).
He has overworked Xander, Betts, and JBJ to the point where these players are showing signs of wearing down or getting hurt.
He leaves in bad starting pitchers like Sean O'Sullivan, Buchholz, Roenis Elias all the time to get them through 5 innings when they should be pulled sooner.
Then he's quick to pull guys like Pomeranz and Eduardo Rodriguez when they have low pitch counts and are pitching well.
He burnt up Koji in the beggining of the year and even admitting doing so. Now Koji could be done for good. He also did the same to Tazawa.
So yeah besides all that, he doesn't deserve to get fired and it makes no sense for the Sox to fire him.
Edit- This is only the in game decisions. Never mind the Sox show no conscious when they play for Farrell and make bad bunts in non bunting situations, can't make bunts in bunt situations, make bad base running mistakes in crucial part of games, and also make crucial errors in the most crucial part of games too. Ohh and he chases young sideline reporters, which I'm sure shows how focused he is.
Does this sum everything up well enough for everyone why Farrell should be fired?
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Post by artfuldodger on Aug 12, 2016 6:33:14 GMT -5
This is an interesting article from ESPN ranking managers: www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/17235632/which-mlb-skippers-do-well-no-1Farrell ranks 20th being criticized for leaving in his starting pitchers too long but given some credit for developing young hitters. Several managers who have their their teams in playoff contention are below him. The article remains on the fence about him. Who would be available and could succeed in Boston if you fire Farrell? I like Gabe Kapler, but don't know how he would fit in Boston.
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Post by barney27 on Aug 12, 2016 6:52:10 GMT -5
If you fire Farrell now the only option is tory. He seemed to do a good job last year. Is it too late in the season to make the change? Farrell is a pitching coach. Interesting that the biggest problem seems to be inconsistent pitching at both starting and relief. Does any one have any history on willis? I have said this before that the sox need to go out and get hickey from Tampa, the Pittsburgh guy or one of the giants guys. The pitching model for the organization does not seem to be working. Yes Farrell needs to go and so does willis. Who comes in is a good question.
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Post by thegoo13 on Aug 12, 2016 9:33:05 GMT -5
This is an interesting article from ESPN ranking managers: www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/17235632/which-mlb-skippers-do-well-no-1Farrell ranks 20th being criticized for leaving in his starting pitchers too long but given some credit for developing young hitters. Several managers who have their their teams in playoff contention are below him. The article remains on the fence about him. Who would be available and could succeed in Boston if you fire Farrell? I like Gabe Kapler, but don't know how he would fit in Boston. Credit for developing young hitters? THAT is funny. Not sure Xander, JBJ, R Castillo would agree with either getting D around by him (stephen drew) (playing Alejandro De Aza incessantly last year, even after we were out of it) or just pulled immediately because they weren't hitting .300 from the start. Even with Benny. Why does he have to bat 9th? He isn't the 9 hitter on this team. Hanley isn't the 5 hitter either and hasn't been for a long time now. If anything JF errors on the side of the veterans. The lineup needs a shakeup. The team a sense of urgency. He should have been removed at the end of last year. It is clear he will remain through this year. It is clear the team doesn't play well under him. Starting to look clear that Papi's post season days are done. Sad.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 12, 2016 9:42:32 GMT -5
Farrell absolutely deserves some credit for developing young hitters, or at least setting up the circumstances to develop them. Betts and Bogaerts probably would have been stars developing in a vacuum, but Bradley, Shaw, and Holt have all outperformed their projections. Andrew Benintendi is batting ninth because he's been in the majors for a week and because the #9 spot in the order is more valuable than 7th and 8th. Him getting on base in front of Betts/Pedroia/Bogaerts is where he should be.
Even with that said, I'm not sure it's enough to save his job. His bullpen management is bad and the way every pitcher has seemingly gone backwards or sideways for three years outweighs the positives.
If they lose the series to Arizona, I think he's in serious trouble. They're an awful team and the Sox are embarking on a miserable road trip after the off-day Monday. Getting the Yankees and Diamondbacks in early August should've been a gift, 4 of 6 easily. They are fading in a pennant race after finishing in last place two straight years. Farrell isn't getting the most out of his team and whether he's the problem may be mis-framing the question. He's not the solution.
Running Terry Francona out of town was really dumb.
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Post by rangoon82 on Aug 12, 2016 9:47:19 GMT -5
Here's a ranking of setup reliever usage. This is the correlation of the reliever quality score (see the How to Improve thread) with the Leverage used at, weighted by games pitched. Is this statistic linear correlation? If so then are the relationships for each team linear? If not I'd have questions about this ranking.
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Post by philarhody on Aug 12, 2016 10:22:44 GMT -5
Pinning the current failures of the 2016 Boston Red Sox on John Farrell's decision making undermines why managers get fired in the first place: player underperformance. It's somewhat embarrassing to read so many posts denigrating Farrell for his decision making. Criticize Farrell for not getting more out of a talented team...not for pinch running his 40 year old DH with a pitcher.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 12, 2016 10:40:47 GMT -5
The pitching has actually been a mixed bag. Porcello is our savior and it looks like Erod has been fixed when it was actually a question in my mind that he was permanently broken when he had that disaster game against Tampa when he gave up 9 runs in less than 3 innings. Since his recall, he's had a 2.80/3.64/3.99 ERA/FIP/xFIP and 2.55/8.15 BB/K/9 in his last 6 games.
If you want to blame Farrell and Willis for Buchholz, Kelly, Price, you have to credit them for ERod and Porcello. Wright doesn't count. They coach themselves or get help from the knuckleball clan.
Not that I'm advocating keeping Farrell for 2 years longer than he should have been.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 12, 2016 11:40:50 GMT -5
Aside from the rather unique 2013 team, what in Farrell's managerial record indicates that he is anything better than average, or slightly worse? At this point it is important to do something to wake this team up from it's non-clutch hitting, awful relief pitching, mental gaffe stupor. Replacing Farrell is as good a place to start as any.
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Post by DesignatedKyle on Aug 12, 2016 12:08:22 GMT -5
Running Terry Francona out of town was really dumb.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 12, 2016 13:21:26 GMT -5
This is an interesting article from ESPN ranking managers: www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/17235632/which-mlb-skippers-do-well-no-1Farrell ranks 20th being criticized for leaving in his starting pitchers too long but given some credit for developing young hitters. Several managers who have their their teams in playoff contention are below him. The article remains on the fence about him. Who would be available and could succeed in Boston if you fire Farrell? I like Gabe Kapler, but don't know how he would fit in Boston. Kapler is a really interesting choice...I'd like to see how that would work out.
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Post by tjb21 on Aug 12, 2016 13:23:16 GMT -5
Yeah, he should go, mainly for the Brandon Workman at bat in the World Series.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 12, 2016 13:24:54 GMT -5
If you fire Farrell now the only option is tory. He seemed to do a good job last year. Is it too late in the season to make the change? Farrell is a pitching coach. Interesting that the biggest problem seems to be inconsistent pitching at both starting and relief. Does any one have any history on willis? I have said this before that the sox need to go out and get hickey from Tampa, the Pittsburgh guy or one of the giants guys. The pitching model for the organization does not seem to be working. Yes Farrell needs to go and so does willis. Who comes in is a good question. It worked with Joe Morgan. I think the most important question is: Is John Farrell improving? In other words: Does he learn on the job? Is it realistic to believe that he can adapt by reducing or eliminating the weaknesses in his managerial game?
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 12, 2016 14:46:10 GMT -5
I have said this before that the sox need to go out and get hickey from Tampa, the Pittsburgh guy or one of the giants guys. The pitching model for the organization does not seem to be working. I'd rather hire a pitching coach who has proved himself in an offensive environment, not a place like Pittsburgh, San Fran, or Oakland.
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Post by thegoo13 on Aug 12, 2016 14:48:07 GMT -5
Farrell absolutely deserves some credit for developing young hitters, or at least setting up the circumstances to develop them. Betts and Bogaerts probably would have been stars developing in a vacuum, but Bradley, Shaw, and Holt have all outperformed their projections. Andrew Benintendi is batting ninth because he's been in the majors for a week and because the #9 spot in the order is more valuable than 7th and 8th. Him getting on base in front of Betts/Pedroia/Bogaerts is where he should be. Even with that said, I'm not sure it's enough to save his job. His bullpen management is bad and the way every pitcher has seemingly gone backwards or sideways for three years outweighs the positives. If they lose the series to Arizona, I think he's in serious trouble. They're an awful team and the Sox are embarking on a miserable road trip after the off-day Monday. Getting the Yankees and Diamondbacks in early August should've been a gift, 4 of 6 easily. They are fading in a pennant race after finishing in last place two straight years. Farrell isn't getting the most out of his team and whether he's the problem may be mis-framing the question. He's not the solution. Running Terry Francona out of town was really dumb. Respectfully agree to disagree on this one. With the exception of the Francona part. Truer words there. Among others he managed JBJ poorly IMO. Shaw has outperformed expectations for sure. He got off to a good start though. Guess that is where a lot of my criticism of JF stems. Seems to me like JF makes his mind up on guys after 20 AB's. He clearly prefers veterans and has played marginal ones at the expense of younger players with much more talent. He has done that consistently during his tenure. He can't get on in front of those guys batting 7th or 8th? Really? I understand taking the pressure off a rookie as best as possible in a playoff chase, but it seems to me like this guy is oblivious to the typical rookie jitters stuff. He is one of our better hitters right now. He just is. Does that mean he won't go 0 for his next 20? No. But i just don't think that if you put him higher in the lineup that would be the cause of it.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 12, 2016 14:50:45 GMT -5
Here's a ranking of setup reliever usage. This is the correlation of the reliever quality score (see the How to Improve thread) with the Leverage used at, weighted by games pitched. Is this statistic linear correlation? If so then are the relationships for each team linear? If not I'd have questions about this ranking. With 4 data points on average, we're just trying to measure the degree to which the guys with the better scores (sum of the standard deviations of SIERA and WPA/inLI per game) correspond to the guys used in higher leverage. Each measure is linear in nature. Here were the Blue Jays, ranked by LI, with Score: 1.44 Floyd, 0.60 1.34 Storen, 0.38 1.00 Chavez, -0.67 0.82, Biagini, -0.52 The Indians: 1.53 McAllister, -0.88 1.31 Shaw, 0.26 0.55 Chamberlain, 1.57 0.43 Otero, 1.72
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 12, 2016 14:56:06 GMT -5
I have said this before that the sox need to go out and get hickey from Tampa, the Pittsburgh guy or one of the giants guys. The pitching model for the organization does not seem to be working. I'd rather hire a pitching coach who has proved himself in an offensive environment, not a place like Pittsburgh, San Fran, or Oakland. So... you want to hire John Farrell?
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