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Post by dmaineah on Jun 6, 2016 10:57:31 GMT -5
Can Zack Wheeler be the starter the Boston Red Sox need, is he a valuable trade target or will he be a bust?
On March 25, 2015, Wheeler had surgery to repair his right elbow and it was expected to take 14 months to fully recover from the procedure.
It was reported by Anthony DiComo that Wheeler will return to the Mets after the All-Star break. #Mets are now targeting just after the All-Star break for Zack Wheeler’s return. Don’t want the break to disjoint his routine early on. — Anthony DiComo (@anthonydicomo) June 3, 2016
Simply put, the Mets are currently living large in the pitching department and a tough decision is looming once Wheeler returns.
Corner infield help (1B Lucas Duda has a stress fracture in his lower-back & is expected to miss 6 weeks, 3B David Wright has a herniated disk in his neck & is expected to miss 8 weeks) would make the Mets a deeper team defensively.
Shaw for Wheeler
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Post by telson13 on Jun 6, 2016 12:00:21 GMT -5
How do you know Wheeler can still pitch? Pitch effectively? Who's your 3rd baseman now? Shaw projects to be about a 5-win player, with two more years of control than Wheeler. Is Wheeler going to be a 5-win pitcher? More importantly, will the difference between Wheeler and the 5-spot pitcher be more than the difference between Shaw and his replacement?
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Post by jmei on Jun 6, 2016 12:05:03 GMT -5
There are maybe two or three third basemen in baseball who project to be five-win players, and Travis Shaw isn't one of them.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 6, 2016 12:55:05 GMT -5
Can Zack Wheeler be the starter the Boston Red Sox need, is he a valuable trade target or will he be a bust?
On March 25, 2015, Wheeler had surgery to repair his right elbow and it was expected to take 14 months to fully recover from the procedure.
It was reported by Anthony DiComo that Wheeler will return to the Mets after the All-Star break. #Mets are now targeting just after the All-Star break for Zack Wheeler’s return. Don’t want the break to disjoint his routine early on. — Anthony DiComo (@anthonydicomo) June 3, 2016
Simply put, the Mets are currently living large in the pitching department and a tough decision is looming once Wheeler returns.
Corner infield help (1B Lucas Duda has a stress fracture in his lower-back & is expected to miss 6 weeks, 3B David Wright has a herniated disk in his neck & is expected to miss 8 weeks) would make the Mets a deeper team defensively.
Shaw for Wheeler Why are you again trying to open up another hole to maybe fix another hole? It doesn't make sense. Who do you think is going to play 3b and give them anywhere near the production Shaw has? We have no idea how effective Wheeler will be after coming off surgery.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 6, 2016 16:15:30 GMT -5
There are maybe two or three third basemen in baseball who project to be five-win players, and Travis Shaw isn't one of them. Shaw has a bwar of 2.3 in 57 games. Sure he seems to be cooling down, but he is still on pace to have a 5 war season.
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Post by jmei on Jun 6, 2016 16:42:17 GMT -5
There are maybe two or three third basemen in baseball who project to be five-win players, and Travis Shaw isn't one of them. Shaw has a bwar of 2.3 in 57 games. Sure he seems to be cooling down, but he is still on pace to have a 5 war season. There's a big difference between being what a player is on pace for (basically prorating out his performance to date) and what a player projects to do (which involves looking at a larger sample of major- and minor-league performance, regressing as necessary, etc).
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Post by telson13 on Jun 6, 2016 17:23:28 GMT -5
There are maybe two or three third basemen in baseball who project to be five-win players, and Travis Shaw isn't one of them. 1.7 fWAR right now. (162/57)X1.7=4.83. That's well within nitpicking range of 5.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 6, 2016 17:29:59 GMT -5
Shaw has a bwar of 2.3 in 57 games. Sure he seems to be cooling down, but he is still on pace to have a 5 war season. There's a big difference between being what a player is on pace for (basically prorating out his performance to date) and what a player projects to do (which involves looking at a larger sample of major- and minor-league performance, regressing as necessary, etc). You're making a personal distinction (arguably appropriate) between my use of projecting (on pace for) and a more narrow use of the term as relates to sabermetric analysis and computer simulation. It's not entirely necessary, though, because I think the average reader here understood my point. I'm not sure that it's really adding to the discussion.
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Post by theghostofjoecronin on Jun 6, 2016 17:38:27 GMT -5
If I'm giving up Shaw (who is not easy to replace at the moment) then I better damn well be getting Matz in return.
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Post by jmei on Jun 6, 2016 17:42:29 GMT -5
In your original post, you're directly comparing Shaw and Wheeler going forward ("Shaw projects to be about a 5-win player, with two more years of control than Wheeler. Is Wheeler going to be a 5-win pitcher?"). In that context, it really doesn't matter what they've done to date (i.e., what they're on pace for), it only matters what you think they'll do going forward. That's absolutely a necessary question (arguably the only relevant question).
By the way, that question doesn't necessarily require sabermetric analysis or computer simulation at all (although I think it should). It's a simple question of "how good is this guy going to be going forward." You made it sound like it's a slam dunk that Shaw will be better than Wheeler going forward, and I don't think it's that clear.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 6, 2016 19:32:27 GMT -5
In your original post, you're directly comparing Shaw and Wheeler going forward ("Shaw projects to be about a 5-win player, with two more years of control than Wheeler. Is Wheeler going to be a 5-win pitcher?"). In that context, it really doesn't matter what they've done to date (i.e., what they're on pace for), it only matters what you think they'll do going forward. That's absolutely a necessary question (arguably the only relevant question). By the way, that question doesn't necessarily require sabermetric analysis or computer simulation at all (although I think it should). It's a simple question of "how good is this guy going to be going forward." You made it sound like it's a slam dunk that Shaw will be better than Wheeler going forward, and I don't think it's that clear. Fair enough, that was meant to be 5 wins for this year (pace), but I can see the confusion. My point was simply that creating a giant hole in trying to fill another is nonsensical. I don't think I "made" it sound that way, but that's how you interpreted it, and I can see why you would based on how I wrote it. However, at no point did I make any claim that it was a "slam dunk." Again, that's your interpretation. The question is whether or not Wheeler can reasonably be expected to perform at or near that level, such that his production **above and beyond whoever he replaces** is worth more than a similar calculus for Shaw. I would argue that **THAT** would need to be a near slam-dunk to make such a trade at all useful, given the two years' control difference. Also, I didn't say one had to do any analysis, I was making a point about a distinction you drew in terms of your use of language, leading to how you interpreted what I said differently from my intent.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jun 6, 2016 19:34:16 GMT -5
I think that regardless of which side of your debate one falls on, the proposed trade is not good for Boston, particularly at the moment.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jun 7, 2016 6:28:14 GMT -5
Zack Wheeler isn't the right guy to trade for this season, but I can see a case that Shaw is the right guy to move if you can get someone to buy into his short run of success. We'd also need a stop-gap solution to hold down third in that situation.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 7, 2016 6:34:28 GMT -5
Zack Wheeler isn't the right guy to trade for this season, but I can see a case that Shaw is the right guy to move if you can get someone to buy into his short run of success. We'd also need a stop-gap solution to hold down third in that situation. Hard to see them trading Shaw midseason. He's also the 1B depth. They need him so much that he has played every game this season. They would need more than a stop-gap to not be downgrading two positions.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jun 7, 2016 7:57:13 GMT -5
Shaw would be a perfect fit for NYM. They need help @ 1st & 3rd. James Loney? Really? Cronin was right though, If it's not Matz, I wouldn't do it. Marco Hernandez/Rutledge + Matz > our worst starter + Shaw.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 7, 2016 8:54:15 GMT -5
Shaw would be a perfect fit for NYM. They need help @ 1st & 3rd. James Loney? Really? And if we traded Shaw, we'd need help at 1B and 3B. I just don't get what is hard to understand about the fact that it's impossible to trade Shaw right now during the season. Losing him creates a bigger hole than we have in the rotation.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jun 7, 2016 10:24:37 GMT -5
Zack Wheeler isn't the right guy to trade for this season, but I can see a case that Shaw is the right guy to move if you can get someone to buy into his short run of success. We'd also need a stop-gap solution to hold down third in that situation. Hard to see them trading Shaw midseason. He's also the 1B depth. They need him so much that he has played every game this season. They would need more than a stop-gap to not be downgrading two positions. By stop-gap, I'm referring to someone on a short term contract. For instance, if the Marlins were buying into Shaw, a trade of Shaw for Prado and a starting pitcher would make sense. Both Prado and Shaw project to have similar value for the rest of this season after which Prado is a free agent. Same thing with someone like Luis Valbuena. Similar projected value as Shaw for the rest of the season. If you could get a good pitcher for Shaw, Valbuena can do a reasonable facsimile of what Shaw will do for the rest of the season. Other guys that project to have similar rest-of-season value to Shaw that are impending free agents: Justin Turner, Aaron Hill, and Juan Uribe. This is just a quick-and-dirty look, but the idea is you would be trading the NEXT 5 years of Shaw for a pitcher and holding value for this year.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 8, 2016 23:33:28 GMT -5
Shaw would be a perfect fit for NYM. They need help @ 1st & 3rd. James Loney? Really? Cronin was right though, If it's not Matz, I wouldn't do it. Marco Hernandez/Rutledge + Matz > our worst starter + Shaw. Matz would probably be worth it, but you'd have to hope Hernandez and whoever else they could round up would provide sufficient value to make up for Shaw's loss. Jimed is right...that's a big hole to fill, because Shaw is also 1b depth. Matz has tons of upside and a lot of control years, though.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 9, 2016 0:35:21 GMT -5
I'm big on not trading Shaw as it creates another hole at hard to fill 3B, but would do so in a second for Matz. Come on that's a no brainier. I wouldn't do it for Wheeler without at least 2-3 starts in majors where he shows his stuff is 100%.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jun 9, 2016 10:16:11 GMT -5
I'm big on not trading Shaw as it creates another hole at hard to fill 3B, but would do so in a second for Matz. Come on that's a no brainier. I wouldn't do it for Wheeler without at least 2-3 starts in majors where he shows his stuff is 100%. That was my point. I am also not big on trading Shaw right now, but I would for a young TOR starter (Matz). It is easier to backfill corner infield than it is for young starter of that ilk. I know he's not a top prospect, but Chris Marrero is quietly having a productive season on AAA. Can play 1B/3B. Just thinking out loud.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 13, 2016 22:24:30 GMT -5
Why would the Mets trade a guy like Wheeler or Matz for Shaw if there's guys like Danny Valencia and Luis Valbuena out on the open market?
You only have to give up prospects versus those players as to compared to with Shaw. Just doesn't make a lot of sense for the Mets imo.
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