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Post by remember04 on Dec 25, 2012 13:32:03 GMT -5
I'm not the expert some of the people on this site are but all international FAs have to prove something before they can get ranked fairly high. With him he had knee issues I think it was so he has to prove he's healthy first then prove he can perform. Based on talent alone I'd put him in the 20-25 range. With the injury concerns which led to us getting him for what we did I'd put him currently in the 40-50 range. He does most definitely from what I remember of his scouting reports have the ability to be a top ten prospect in a year or two but that would involve everything breaking right for him. Being in the top 20 by seasons end should be a realistic goal for his fans. Remember there are other people more knowledgeable in this area but they're all on vacation so this is just my opinion.
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Post by dewey1972 on Jul 19, 2013 21:51:53 GMT -5
Rijo was mentioned in today's BA chat:
Chris (DC): Do the scouting reports on Wendell Rijo match the good numbers he's put up so far this year (in a ridiculously small sample but with good peripherals)?
Ben Badler: I’m on the Wendell Rijo bandwagon. The knee injury last year cost him some cash, but it makes it even more impressive that a 17-year-old kid can come into the GCL and hit like this in his first year even though he had to spend the first part of his career rehabbing. It’s a really nice swing, good hand-eye coordination, plenty of contact and a very high baseball IQ.
After reading that, I checked out his numbers, and they are excellent. It's only 79 plate appearances, but he's walked thirteen times and struck out just eight. A good but not ridiculous .352 BABIP. Only 17, though I don't know the average age for the GCL.
Anyone have anything more to add? Seems like he could be interesting.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jul 20, 2013 7:33:48 GMT -5
I've been able to see him 3 times this season, and I was really looking forward to my 1st glimpse. My 1st observation was not real strong just because he had two errors in the field and looked tentative. But each time I've seen him since he has looked much more comfortable. You don't get much younger in the GCL than Rijo and it has to be understandable that things are quite foreign at this time and it's a little hard missing your family and friends. It certainly is a short sample, but his bat looks good and he is handling second base much better than the 1st week. As young as he is. I can see him progressing well.
With Betts busting out and Rijo showing a lot of promise, all of a sudden we have some legit middle infielders on the right side also. Now if we just had a big time prospect at first!
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 20, 2013 8:10:49 GMT -5
with him looking so good, why extend Pedey? Rijo should be able to take over in two years...
In all seriousness though, an added hurdle that international guys have vs US drafted payers in the service time clock. When does an international clock start? Are guys in the DSL ticking as 16 year olds? Is his? It's a disadvantage later as they get rushed then burn options and have to rot in the majors or bounce organizations rather then developing properly.
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Post by foleyli on Jul 20, 2013 13:27:32 GMT -5
It is my understanding that the clock begins when he first plays in a game (so 2013) which means he would have to be on the 40 man roster by 2018. Remember that guys who signed on 7/2/2013 cannot play in DSL or any other league until 2014.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 20, 2013 19:57:51 GMT -5
If he's 17 and he can do anything in pro ball, I'm intrigued.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 25, 2013 0:06:17 GMT -5
In terms of performance, Rijo has simply been the best 17 year old on the planet (you can go to FanGraphs leaders boards and get all the players in a given level, and sort by age, and see for yourself). He started 3-19, 1 BB, 6 SO, and since then he's .393 / .521 / .554, with 14 BB and 3 SO, which even in a sample that small (74 PA), is insane for anyone at any level.
He may need a promotion, and there's only one true 17 y/o* above rookie ball, Phillie's CF Carlos Tocci, who's hitting .223 / .279 / .268 in A ball and hence obviously shouldn't be there.
It was amazingly bold to send this kid stateside at 17, and so far, it's working.
*I count July babies as a year older, and so should you, because American kids born in July have an extra year of youth league and school experience due to the 8/1 youth league cutoff.
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Post by okin15 on Jul 25, 2013 9:26:56 GMT -5
Great points Eric.
One issue with July babies being thought of as older, is they were likely very young for their age groups at all levels, and so may have been held back on lesser teams unless/until they showed true prowess (see hockey players born in December for more info).
Also, a quibble with the board in general, who often use 3-19 rather than 3/19... 3-19 denotes two statistics like 3 wins and 19 losses, while 3/19 denotes three for nineteen, like 3 hits in 19 at bats (or 3 wins in 19 games). Also known as a ratio or fraction, and represented as a decimal after being divided (.158). Anyway, not just you Eric, many on this board make the error, and it's just less easy to understand people when they do. Thanks for putting up with that.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 25, 2013 9:41:39 GMT -5
In terms of performance, Rijo has simply been the best 17 year old on the planet (you can go to FanGraphs leaders boards and get all the players in a given level, and sort by age, and see for yourself). He started 3-19, 1 BB, 6 SO, and since then he's .393 / .521 / .554, with 14 BB and 3 SO, which even in a sample that small (74 PA), is insane for anyone at any level. He may need a promotion, and there's only one true 17 y/o* above rookie ball, Phillie's CF Carlos Tocci, who's hitting .223 / .279 / .268 in A ball and hence obviously shouldn't be there. It was amazingly bold to send this kid stateside at 17, and so far, it's working. *I count July babies as a year older, and so should you, because American kids born in July have an extra year of youth league and school experience due to the 8/1 youth league cutoff. Eh, I'm admittedly not a big fan of Fangraphs' minor league charts. They have occasional errors that make me nervous. Sergio Gomez, for example, is listed as being 29 years old. Even if we're to ignore Raul Mondesi, which is basically the upshot of your "U.S. 17-year-olds" rule, there is Franmil Reyes, who was demoted from the Northwest League, and a few guys in the Pioneer and Appy Leagues, depending on how you count them. And, of course, there's Julio Urias, pitching in the Midwest League at age 16, which is just silly. Of course, none of that takes away from what Rijo is doing. Not sure if they'll promote him though - the GCL was an aggressive enough assignment as is, and the Lowell infield is relatively crowded at the moment, without anyone obvious to promote to Greenville from Lin, Rondon, Asuaje, and Witte. |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 25, 2013 18:55:16 GMT -5
Great points Eric. One issue with July babies being thought of as older, is they were likely very young for their age groups at all levels, and so may have been held back on lesser teams unless/until they showed true prowess (see hockey players born in December for more info). Yeah, July kids are strange: they get an extra year of amateur experience compared to August kids, but they're the youngest and hence get the least attention from coaches, while August and September kids are the biggest and hence get the most attention, and hence are represented disproportionately in the draft -- and ultimately in MLB, but to a lesser extent, IIRC a study I did. Which is of course very interesting -- August and September kids are disproportionately likely to be draft disappointments, too. (And, no, Kolbrin Vitek was born on April 1. You know I had to look it up.) But that age effect is going to happen regardless. I've done some trial studies of elite pitching prospects that indicated that it was years of amateur experience that we should really be looking at rather than age, so that's why I use August 1 as my age cutoff. It's also a smart idea to adjust for years missed because of injury. Kyle Stroup in A+ at 23 isn't that much of a prospect, but at a virtual 21 he's much more interesting. I've always randomly gone back and forth between 3/19 and 3-19 as abbreviations for "3 for 19" without any thought as to which made more sense. Thanks for setting me straight! (And no, it doesn't help that either one can refer to March 19th.) |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 25, 2013 19:08:02 GMT -5
Yeah, FanGraphs ml data in general often needs to be checked against b-ref and milb. I don't think they process late scoring changes, for instance, and I've noticed at least one game missing from a record.
Franmil (who names their kid that?) was born on July 5, so he's just barely 17 even by conventional standards, let alone my own private one. And I meant to specify position players -- it seems that teams are more willing to fast-trick young pitchers then hitters, which makes perfect sense given that learning pitching is largely a matter of mastering mechanics via proprioception, while hitting requires mastering pitch recognition, and hence it helps greatly if the pitching talent being faced is comparable to the hitter's own talent.
(I had a friend who knows nothing about baseball at all, but is an M.I.T. grad engineer, suggest that the reason Pudge Rodriguez was able to learn to hit while in MLB is that he was learning pitch recognition while he was catching. That's actually a testable hypothesis, and might help explain Yadier Molina's career, too. This was of course at the end of a conversation where I was trying to explain why Xander was such a prodigy -- he was curious as to why MLB hitters, unlike athletes in many other sports, needed so much experience before being able to play at a major league level.)
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Post by bentossaurus on Jul 25, 2013 20:00:22 GMT -5
I had a friend who knows nothing about baseball at all, but is an M.I.T. grad engineer, suggest that the reason Pudge Rodriguez was able to learn to hit while in MLB is that he was learning pitch recognition while he was catching. That's actually a testable hypothesis, and might help explain Yadier Molina's career, too. This was of course at the end of a conversation where I was trying to explain why Xander was such a prodigy -- he was curious as to why MLB hitters, unlike athletes in many other sports, needed so much experience before being able to play at a major league level. "The only thing you know about pitching is you can't hit it." - Bob Gibson to his catcher |
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 26, 2013 3:44:43 GMT -5
I've always randomly gone back and forth between 3/19 and 3-19 as abbreviations for "3 for 19" without any thought as to which made more sense. Thanks for setting me straight! (And no, it doesn't help that either one can refer to March 19th.) But it can't, actually. March 19th would be 19.3. or, if giving a specific year, 2013-03-19. Using 3/19 for March 19th is kind of dumb, only Americans would do that.  |
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Post by raftsox on Jul 26, 2013 7:55:21 GMT -5
All players on reserve lists are eligible except players on the Retired, Disqualified, or Ineligible lists and shall be subject to Rule 5 draft selection in accordance with the following:
•If 18 years old or younger on the June 5 preceding the player's original signing date, the player is subject to selection at the fifth Rule 5 Draft following the player's signing date.
Age: 17
Born: September 5, 1995
How Acquired: International
free agent (July 2012)
Therefore: 5 seasons, 2016 Rule 5 draft.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 26, 2013 15:26:47 GMT -5
All players on reserve lists are eligible except players on the Retired, Disqualified, or Ineligible lists and shall be subject to Rule 5 draft selection in accordance with the following: •If 18 years old or younger on the June 5 preceding the player's original signing date, the player is subject to selection at the fifth Rule 5 Draft following the player's signing date. Age: 17 Born: September 5, 1995 How Acquired: International free agent (July 2012) Therefore: 5 seasons, 2016 Rule 5 draft. For reference, when a player is Rule 5 eligible is always readily accessible on his player page. |
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 22, 2014 12:21:40 GMT -5
Hard to believe that Rijo reached Greenville two years younger than Mookie and is tearing the league up the same way he did.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 22, 2014 12:35:19 GMT -5
Reports when he signed were that he was very polished and advanced for his age. It has turned out to be true so far.
I would also take this time to commend the changes they made on the International department. So far it's looking very good.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Apr 22, 2014 12:36:38 GMT -5
P-)He's old for his age.
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Apr 22, 2014 15:03:10 GMT -5
I would like to see some stolen bases out of him. Otherwise offensively he looks like a good prospect.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 22, 2014 16:14:28 GMT -5
Baseball Prospectus has TAv for minor leaguers -- park and league adjusted, and a better stat than wRC+ in that it factors in GDP correctly.
They also have opponents TAv allowed, which in a SSS like 15 games is really important to adjust for.
And of course I've adjusted for position.
I wish I already knew how many points of TAv to add or deduct for being a year older or younger than ordinary for your league. I'll try to figure that out later, but for the time being let's be real conservative and say .010. It's likelier to be .015 or so.
That gives us the following top 5 in the minors (maximum ages 23 in AAA, 22 in AA, and so on)
.401 Mookie Betts
.401 Joey Gallo (but .390 if he moves from 3B to an outfield corner as expected)
.375 Wendell Rijo (or .380?)
.372 Randall Grichuk
.357 Joc Pederson (or maybe Ketel Marte at.359)
(a handful of other guys in the .350's)
So ... there are four guys just head and shoulders above everyone else in milb so far ... and half of them are Red Sox 2B prospects.
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Post by okin15 on Apr 23, 2014 10:34:43 GMT -5
why are you using those ages / ignoring the college prospects?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 23, 2014 12:53:16 GMT -5
why are you using those ages / ignoring the college prospects? As I explained in another thread, no top prospects are being excluded here. JBJ, for instance, would have been excluded starting this year. Ellsbury, Lowrie, Pedroia, etc. -- all were in MLB by age 24. Position players who are still in AAA at age 24, or who project to be, are almost never top prospects. The next time I run the numbers I do hope to include an age adjustment so I can include the guys who are 24 in AAA, etc. (e.g. Marrero, 23 in AA). At that point, I may start a thread here where I can post the leaders weekly or bi-weekly (and maybe the Davenport Peak Projection leaders as well). |
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Post by okin15 on Apr 23, 2014 16:16:18 GMT -5
why are you using those ages / ignoring the college prospects? As I explained in another thread, no top prospects are being excluded here. JBJ, for instance, would have been excluded starting this year. Ellsbury, Lowrie, Pedroia, etc. -- all were in MLB by age 24. Position players who are still in AAA at age 24, or who project to be, are almost never top prospects. The next time I run the numbers I do hope to include an age adjustment so I can include the guys who are 24 in AAA, etc. (e.g. Marrero, 23 in AA). At that point, I may start a thread here where I can post the leaders weekly or bi-weekly (and maybe the Davenport Peak Projection leaders as well). I mean, he's been called up to the majors, but George Springer was 24 and lighting it on fire in Oklahoma for the first 13 games of the season. |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 25, 2014 9:04:24 GMT -5
As I explained in another thread, no top prospects are being excluded here. JBJ, for instance, would have been excluded starting this year. Ellsbury, Lowrie, Pedroia, etc. -- all were in MLB by age 24. Position players who are still in AAA at age 24, or who project to be, are almost never top prospects. The next time I run the numbers I do hope to include an age adjustment so I can include the guys who are 24 in AAA, etc. (e.g. Marrero, 23 in AA). At that point, I may start a thread here where I can post the leaders weekly or bi-weekly (and maybe the Davenport Peak Projection leaders as well). I mean, he's been called up to the majors, but George Springer was 24 and lighting it on fire in Oklahoma for the first 13 games of the season. I think you didn't see my reply to you in the other thread, where I mentioned Springer's great start and the fact that he was only in AAA because the Astros wanted to slow his arbitration clock. |
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Post by soxfanatic on May 7, 2014 13:23:57 GMT -5
Jake (Eagan): With the Red Sox gluttony of riches at 2B, does Wendell Rijo find a different position in the future? He seems like a young superstar in the making!
Ben Badler: The problem is he doesn't fit anywhere else on the diamond. He doesn't have the range for shortstop, the arm isn't suited for the left side of the infield, and between the ACL injury and not having burner speed, I don't see him in center field. But he fits well at second base and I love the bat, the approach and the way he stings the ball for a player his size. He's a potential high OBP second baseman with solid pop, but there's a couple guys ahead of him on the organizational depth chart that fit that bill. I'm sure other teams' pro scouts are keeping a close eye on him.
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