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nomar
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Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on Jun 28, 2016 7:02:28 GMT -5
Let's stop the bleeding and get a replacement level starter. How much could he cost? I would say barely a B level prospect.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jun 28, 2016 10:29:50 GMT -5
He left Saturday's game with a sore back on a wild swing against MadBum. He would probably still be an upgrade even with a broken back.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 8, 2016 9:40:27 GMT -5
And some *truly* atrocious offenses. The Mets, Phillies, and Braves are arguably the three worst offensive teams in baseball. And the Marlins aren't exactly striking fear in pitchers' hearts. I take any NL East pitcher's stats this year with a salt-lick sized block of salt. Hopefully they don't overrate Hellickson either for the same reasons. Agreed. I think he'd be a good pickup (he has AL East experience), but I'm not betting on better than mid-4s. Then again, at least Philly is a hitter's park. But he's not a guy I'd want to see them give up much for. |
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on Jul 8, 2016 9:44:44 GMT -5
A rental Hellickson is worth very little. Especially since Philly has no incentive to keep him. I wouldn't worry about his price. Maybe Brentz and a C prospect if they're trying to just throw bats at a wall and hope one sticks.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 8, 2016 9:46:34 GMT -5
Hopefully they don't overrate Hellickson either for the same reasons. Agreed. I think he'd be a good pickup (he has AL East experience), but I'm not betting on better than mid-4s. Then again, at least Philly is a hitter's park. But he's not a guy I'd want to see them give up much for. His last two seasons in Tampa, he wasn't even replacement level. |
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 8, 2016 12:00:41 GMT -5
Agreed. I think he'd be a good pickup (he has AL East experience), but I'm not betting on better than mid-4s. Then again, at least Philly is a hitter's park. But he's not a guy I'd want to see them give up much for. His last two seasons in Tampa, he wasn't even replacement level. "Not even replacement level" would make him the Red Sox fourth starter though. In some sense, I'd be worried that they'd be buying a tad high on him - he's having his first good season since 2012. That said, his walk rate is way down to where it was when he was a prospect and moderately successful young pitcher. The homers are going to keep him from ever sustaining a run of above averageness, but the Red Sox could really use a low-cost, 1.0-2.0 WAR innings eater in the short term. Right now I'm listening on anyone who I think can give a sub-5.00 ERA without getting hurt. That doesn't mean I pull the trigger, but I ask around. |
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 8, 2016 12:15:15 GMT -5
A rental Hellickson is worth very little. Especially since Philly has no incentive to keep him. I wouldn't worry about his price. Maybe Brentz and a C prospect if they're trying to just throw bats at a wall and hope one sticks. You say that you wouldn't worry about his price, but PHI is not giving him away. If they assume a good chunk of his $7mm salary (approx. $3.5mm remaining), I'd expect PHI to get a B- prospect. That's pretty much the going price for a legitimate back-end starter without salary. Notwithstanding Brentz' resurgence, I wouldn't view him as a B- prospect. |
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 8, 2016 12:28:53 GMT -5
His last two seasons in Tampa, he wasn't even replacement level. "Not even replacement level" would make him the Red Sox fourth starter though. In some sense, I'd be worried that they'd be buying a tad high on him - he's having his first good season since 2012. That said, his walk rate is way down to where it was when he was a prospect and moderately successful young pitcher. The homers are going to keep him from ever sustaining a run of above averageness, but the Red Sox could really use a low-cost, 1.0-2.0 WAR innings eater in the short term. Right now I'm listening on anyone who I think can give a sub-5.00 ERA without getting hurt. That doesn't mean I pull the trigger, but I ask around. I don't disagree. Just thought that it's not a great idea to be buying someone who is a tad overrated and will almost assuredly pitch worse in Fenway. I'd much rather lean towards Hill or some other pitcher who's peripherals are better than his results. |
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jul 8, 2016 12:45:30 GMT -5
IMO, the bottom line with Hellickson, Hill, Teheran, ect is who the selling team wants in prospects. They may like/need another teams prospects they are offering. Any team obtaining any of these guys is going to overpay. Nomar is right that Hellickson is only worth Brentz+. In this market, it's going to take more.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 8, 2016 12:58:04 GMT -5
Nomar is right that Hellickson is only worth Brentz+. I disagree. Brentz is not even replacement value. He is a AAAA player, a C- prospect at best. Hellickson is a legitimate, inning-eating replacement value starter (better, this year). Sure, there are questions as to how his game (read: home run tendencies) translates to the AL East or the better hitting teams in the league. However, there is no question that 2-3 months of Hellboy on a subsidized contract is worth more than Brentz. EDIT: On 6/28, Nomar said the following about Hellboy: |
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 8, 2016 13:03:08 GMT -5
Nomar is right that Hellickson is only worth Brentz+. I disagree. Brentz is not even replacement value. He is a AAAA player, a C- prospect at best. Hellickson is a legitimate, inning-eating replacement value starter (better, this year). Sure, there are questions as to how his game (read: home run tendencies) translates to the AL East or the better hitting teams in the league. However, there is no question that 2-3 months of Hellboy on a subsidized contract is worth more than Brentz. We should be able to make a 3 team trade with Buchholz being the only asset they give up. I doubt Hellickson would be much better in Fenway. I doubt that happens, but that's what they should be worth. I'm sure Buchholz would be fine in the NL East too. |
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on Jul 8, 2016 16:49:14 GMT -5
Nomar is right that Hellickson is only worth Brentz+. I disagree. Brentz is not even replacement value. He is a AAAA player, a C- prospect at best. Hellickson is a legitimate, inning-eating replacement value starter (better, this year). Sure, there are questions as to how his game (read: home run tendencies) translates to the AL East or the better hitting teams in the league. However, there is no question that 2-3 months of Hellboy on a subsidized contract is worth more than Brentz. EDIT: On 6/28, Nomar said the following about Hellboy: Yeah, my post was meant to insinuate that maybe they believed in Brentz now. It wasn't so much about Brentz as it was like "a non-shiny prospect that they're high on + a C prospect". I think in general I have about the same value as you do in mind. |
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Post by larrycook on Jul 8, 2016 21:59:10 GMT -5
Hellickson and jake Thompson for Chavis, ockimey, Buchholz, swihart and Kelly.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on Jul 8, 2016 23:03:08 GMT -5
Hellickson and jake Thompson for Chavis, ockimey, Buchholz, swihart and Kelly. Trading Swihart that lightly will sting. I'm 90% sure. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 8, 2016 23:44:17 GMT -5
Hellickson and jake Thompson for Chavis, ockimey, Buchholz, swihart and Kelly. Trading Swihart that lightly will sting. I'm 90% sure. I took that as a joke, thinking it's Friday night and he might have had a few too many. For one why would the Phillies trade Hellickson and also trade a guy they could replace him with. Second while Thompson is a nice pitching prospect his numbers don't jump out and he's up and down every year. I have to think Swihart value is equal if not more than Thompson. So that's a crazy amount for Hellickson. |
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Post by telson13 on Jul 9, 2016 0:49:26 GMT -5
Kelly alone might get Hellickson. Challenge trade, upside for reliable mediocrity.
The Sox should shop Buchholz for a prospect. As bad as he's been, I could see a contender with a need at 5 figuring, wtf...if he pitches like last year, we'll cruise. If he stinks, no option pick-up and he's gone come November.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 9, 2016 0:59:33 GMT -5
Hellickson and jake Thompson for Chavis, ockimey, Buchholz, swihart and Kelly. I wouldn't trade much for Thompson. He doesn't miss many bats, and he's got pretty average stuff. He's probably a 4/5. I'd rather see them get a second MLB guy, especially for a package that ridiculously lopsided. You're basically throwing Swihart away for nothing. Did you try to do the same with JBJ in '13-'14, and Bogaerts in '14? I'd much prefer keeping Swihart over getting Thompson. And Kelly, with an extra year of control, is a fair trade for Hellickson, with maybe a throw-in (which Chavis and Ockimey are clearly not). Maybe Kelly and a SS lottery ticket. |
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on Jul 9, 2016 1:43:02 GMT -5
Trading Swihart that lightly will sting. I'm 90% sure. I took that as a joke, thinking it's Friday night and he might have had a few too many. For one why would the Phillies trade Hellickson and also trade a guy they could replace him with. Second while Thompson is a nice pitching prospect his numbers don't jump out and he's up and down every year. I have to think Swihart value is equal if not more than Thompson. So that's a crazy amount for Hellickson. I think you (and telson) are taking my post wrong. To be clear, I absolutely would not give Swihart up for Thompson and Hellickson. That's what my post was intended to imply. I love Swihart. I wouldn't trade him for Teheran either, which may put me in the minority. |
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