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Post by telluricrook on Aug 19, 2016 12:06:57 GMT -5
I believe Jose Fernandez spent one full season in the minors. In 2012 He played basically half a season in Single A and then the second half in High A . And then straight to the majors in 2013 like a boss! Look who else jumped A+ to MLB. [DDo alert!] Wow I didnt know that.
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Post by deepjohn on Aug 19, 2016 12:06:58 GMT -5
Let's cut out the extracurricular stuff. Frankly, it's ruining what should be a joyous thread about a breakout prospect. True, I should know better. Sorry. But my man, I am feeling the Kopech love. Back at you. (And I am still coming for your profile pic, )
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 19, 2016 12:09:05 GMT -5
I agree. It's annoying to have to do nothing but criticize a prospect who I think is pretty damn good and definitely exciting. We should start a new chapter in this thread and anyone who doesn't follow suit (myself included) shouldn't be allowed to post in here.
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Post by voiceofreason on Aug 19, 2016 12:18:57 GMT -5
This Kopech guy is pretty good. How is that for a segue?
It is always exciting to see a prospect do what he is doing and then daydream about the possibilities, kind of like when you buy a 400 million dollar powerball ticket. I'm guessing his chances are a little better of coming true.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 19, 2016 12:42:07 GMT -5
It's the ones who had similar numbers at that level that you never heard of that you have to wonder about. For every Dwight Gooden, there were probably a dozen others who fizzled out. Absolutely, which is why I ended with that caveat. Remember Roger Salkeld?
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 19, 2016 12:56:16 GMT -5
It's the ones who had similar numbers at that level that you never heard of that you have to wonder about. For every Dwight Gooden, there were probably a dozen others who fizzled out. Absolutely, which is why I ended with that caveat. Remember Roger Salkeld? Nope. How about all of these in A+? Sammy Gervacio, 28.5% K-BB% in 2007 in A+ Michael Dubee, 35.7% in 2009 (never made majors) John Lamb, 25.6% in 2010 in 74.2 IP at age 19 in A+ Robbie Erlin, 28.8% in 2011 in 54.2 IP at age 20 and one of my favorites - Phil Hughes, 25.5% at age 20.
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Post by tjb21 on Aug 19, 2016 12:59:32 GMT -5
Nice prospect, I'm excited for what his future in Boston holds.
I can't imagine what it's like being a minor league ballplayer (the good and the bad). Or what it feels like to throw 101.
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Post by patford on Aug 19, 2016 13:03:03 GMT -5
The way things stand with the bullpen the only good reason for not giving Kopech a shot is the fact he isn't on the 40 man roster and since he needs more development it's unwise to "start the clock" on a 20 year old prospect. If he were on the roster and they brought him up just to plug a gap for a few days I see no downside. The idea that he would go out and get blown up and have his confidence irreparably shattered is highly suspect. And if the guy is that fragile then he's never going to pan out anyhow. A taste of the majors at a young age could only motivate a young player no matter what the result was.
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Post by GyIantosca on Aug 19, 2016 13:22:05 GMT -5
I wonder where he ends up on BA top 100. He def went up a few notches.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 19, 2016 13:37:03 GMT -5
Absolutely, which is why I ended with that caveat. Remember Roger Salkeld? Nope. How about all of these in A+? Sammy Gervacio, 28.5% K-BB% in 2007 in A+ Michael Dubee, 35.7% in 2009 (never made majors) John Lamb, 25.6% in 2010 in 74.2 IP at age 19 in A+ Robbie Erlin, 28.8% in 2011 in 54.2 IP at age 20 and one of my favorites - Phil Hughes, 25.5% at age 20. Heh heh...Robbie Erlin. Hughes turned out to be basically a re-boot of Edwin Jackson. For that matter, look at Buchholz. I'm excited about Kopech, but he's got a long ways to go.
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Post by deepjohn on Aug 19, 2016 13:47:18 GMT -5
Absolutely, which is why I ended with that caveat. Remember Roger Salkeld? Nope. How about all of these in A+? Sammy Gervacio, 28.5% K-BB% in 2007 in A+ Michael Dubee, 35.7% in 2009 (never made majors) John Lamb, 25.6% in 2010 in 74.2 IP at age 19 in A+ Robbie Erlin, 28.8% in 2011 in 54.2 IP at age 20 and one of my favorites - Phil Hughes, 25.5% at age 20. Yeah, for any proposition, I think one can cite outliers that appear to contradict it, though with a low confidence level that they might be predictive. I just keep my eye on the predictive data that has a higher confidence level (velo, K-BB, ISO-against), the size of the pitcher's data set (close to a month), and sharp deviations in the data, that might be meaningful, such as if a pitcher has added a slider, as Kopech's coach says he did. ADD: Bannister seemed to say in an interview he does something like this, too. But you are absolutely correct, I think. There are so many co-variables at play with outliers for other pitchers (The pitchability to go with the work ethic and the will to get better and evolve as a complete pitcher, that whole combination), that's about the best we can do.
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Post by brendan98 on Aug 19, 2016 14:48:15 GMT -5
So this thread seems to have taken a turn in the right direction, Kopech is such an exciting prospect, one of my favorites at this point, but a large portion of the thread seemed to be almost disparaging towards him, almost felt like an arbitration hearing where the big league club has to go in and convince an arbitrator that a player isn't all that great just so they don't have to pay him as much, just not a good feeling.
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Post by patford on Aug 19, 2016 19:31:06 GMT -5
So this thread seems to have taken a turn in the right direction, Kopech is such an exciting prospect, one of my favorites at this point, but a large portion of the thread seemed to be almost disparaging towards him, almost felt like an arbitration hearing where the big league club has to go in and convince an arbitrator that a player isn't all that great just so they don't have to pay him as much, just not a good feeling. If Kopech would stop trolling the thread by striking out two out of every three batters he's facing people wouldn't be so agitated. It's almost like he's punching people in the face.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Aug 19, 2016 21:00:33 GMT -5
It's virtually a given that Kopech will be pitching in the AFL or some kind of post minor league season ball, right?
If he does, isn't it likely that he is going to spend quite a bit of time working on his off-speed pitches? That's the laboratory to do it in. If so, let's not have people going off the deep end being worried about lower K rates, control issues, or other peripheral stuff (Besides the fact that I never worry about results in the fall/winter leagues anyway because a lot of guys don't give a damn about results since it isn't really their organization and they are there to learn and polish their craft rather than focus on max success.)
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 22, 2016 9:16:37 GMT -5
It's virtually a given that Kopech will be pitching in the AFL or some kind of post minor league season ball, right? If he does, isn't it likely that he is going to spend quite a bit of time working on his off-speed pitches? That's the laboratory to do it in. If so, let's not have people going off the deep end being worried about lower K rates, control issues, or other peripheral stuff (Besides the fact that I never worry about results in the fall/winter leagues anyway because a lot of guys don't give a damn about results since it isn't really their organization and they are there to learn and polish their craft rather than focus on max success.) I'll be stunned if he's not in the AFL. However, I think Instructs (as mentioned on the podcast yesterday, we think he'll go there first to get a couple starts before the AFL) is the better "lab." He'll be facing really good competition at an approximately AA level, so that's not necessarily the time to be experimenting with stuff so much as just continuing with his typical progression. In other words, while he shouldn't be throwing 95% fastballs, he shouldn't be doing crazy stuff like throwing only 30% fastballs or anything.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Aug 22, 2016 9:41:19 GMT -5
Glad we kept the kid who's dominating a level above than the one who is not dominating a lower level.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 22, 2016 9:46:10 GMT -5
It's the ones who had similar numbers at that level that you never heard of that you have to wonder about. For every Dwight Gooden, there were probably a dozen others who fizzled out. Absolutely, which is why I ended with that caveat. Remember Roger Salkeld? He got hurt, missing all of 1992. Went from the #3 prospect in MLB to out of the top 100. I did a study of pitching prospects in that era and almost every single elite prospect had his career affected by injury -- and a majority were torpedoed. It's rather astonishing. The exception was a Dominican kid who was so slight of frame that his team limited his innings. I just looked for that study and couldn't find it. I have 1798 spreadsheets in C:/Data/Excel/BBall and they're not organized in the least. Some time I have to devote a few days (weeks?) to looking at all of them and finding the studies that could be updated and published, and the ones that were started and never finished but were ideas worth revisiting (often with better data and/or methodologies). Some of these are less than exciting, e.g. "Hunter Jones Pitches." I should probably move all of the files with a player name in the file name to a sub-folder!
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Post by telson13 on Aug 22, 2016 11:10:38 GMT -5
Absolutely, which is why I ended with that caveat. Remember Roger Salkeld? He got hurt, missing all of 1992. Went from the #3 prospect in MLB to out of the top 100. I did a study of pitching prospects in that era and almost every single elite prospect had his career affected by injury -- and a majority were torpedoed. It's rather astonishing. The exception was a Dominican kid who was so slight of frame that his team limited his innings. I just looked for that study and couldn't find it. I have 1798 spreadsheets in C:/Data/Excel/BBall and they're not organized in the least. Some time I have to devote a few days (weeks?) to looking at all of them and finding the studies that could be updated and published, and the ones that were started and never finished but were ideas worth revisiting (often with better data and/or methodologies). Some of these are less than exciting, e.g. "Hunter Jones Pitches." I should probably move all of the files with a player name in the file name to a sub-folder! Apparently you and I share the same filing system. Salkeld was awesome before he got injured. I remember Kiki Jones of the Dodgers being tremendous at first, then getting derailed by injuries. Same draft in '89 I think.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 22, 2016 14:48:11 GMT -5
He got hurt, missing all of 1992. Went from the #3 prospect in MLB to out of the top 100. I did a study of pitching prospects in that era and almost every single elite prospect had his career affected by injury -- and a majority were torpedoed. It's rather astonishing. The exception was a Dominican kid who was so slight of frame that his team limited his innings. I just looked for that study and couldn't find it. I have 1798 spreadsheets in C:/Data/Excel/BBall and they're not organized in the least. Some time I have to devote a few days (weeks?) to looking at all of them and finding the studies that could be updated and published, and the ones that were started and never finished but were ideas worth revisiting (often with better data and/or methodologies). Some of these are less than exciting, e.g. "Hunter Jones Pitches." I should probably move all of the files with a player name in the file name to a sub-folder! Apparently you and I share the same filing system. Salkeld was awesome before he got injured. I remember Kiki Jones of the Dodgers being tremendous at first, then getting derailed by injuries. Same draft in '89 I think. Of course, that's another name from my study, and that led to my finding both the study and this summary I wrote of it. The study, BTW, was to find out whether age or years of experience was a better fit to career path; it turned out to be the latter. This should amaze younger folks who won't have heard of many of the older names. The irony: there is one guy who was excluded from the study because he was ranked in the top 10 without having thrown a pitch professionally, but was never higher than #36 after having done so -- and that should be a very familiar name. I have to update the 2003-2007 list (the study is 6 1/2 years old).
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Post by telson13 on Aug 22, 2016 16:58:49 GMT -5
Apparently you and I share the same filing system. Salkeld was awesome before he got injured. I remember Kiki Jones of the Dodgers being tremendous at first, then getting derailed by injuries. Same draft in '89 I think. Of course, that's another name from my study, and that led to my finding both the study and this summary I wrote of it. The study, BTW, was to find out whether age or years of experience was a better fit to career path; it turned out to be the latter. This should amaze younger folks who won't have heard of many of the older names. The irony: there is one guy who was excluded from the study because he was ranked in the top 10 without having thrown a pitch professionally, but was never higher than #36 after having done so -- and that should be a very familiar name. I have to update the 2003-2007 list (the study is 6 1/2 years old). Mike Harkey...I remember him hitting 100 in the minors back when nobody did it. Never really got it together, though, and lost velo post-injury. Some great names on there. Greg Miller!!
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Post by deepjohn on Aug 22, 2016 17:42:25 GMT -5
...In that sense, deepjohn is absolutely right to point to Kopech's tremendously low Iso allowed as an ameliorating factor for his high BB+HBP rate. But we're talking something like a 10% adjustment (according to the seat of my pants, and I'm already in my pajamas). And it has nothing to do with ml hitters not chasing; it's entirely a function of a pitcher already trying a more advanced approach and sometimes missing his spot and hence throwing pitches out of the zone when he was perfectly capable of throwing a strike (but one with a higher chance of being hit hard). Well, my idea was that since K-BB is the predictive stat, then pitchers with the same K-BB will have BB rates that vary inversely with their swing%. BB rate should increase as swing% does down. In other words, pitchers with the same predictive kwERA are walking more or less batters based on how often batters swing. Batters swing less at certain kinds of pitchers (overmatched, bailing out, perceived to be wild, velocity, spin rate, or for so many reasons.) I found a few real world examples, purely as illustrations: K-BB BB% Swing% FB veloChris Archer 19.4% 8.4% 45% 95 Corey Kluber 19.2% 6.2% 48% 92 Jon Gray 16.7% 8.1% 49% 95 M. Tanaka 16.9% 4.1% 50.5% 92 D. Pomeranz 16.5% 9.8% 45.5% 91.3 Z. Greinke 16.3% 4.7% 50.7% 91.3 It's the K-BB that matters for reducing runs allowed, not the BB rate, provided that the pitcher is deceptive and avoids hard contact. Kopech, who has an extreme high K-BB and high BB, with a 98 MPH velocity (91 on his slider!!), high spin rate, and is very deceptive (almost no hard contact), should be getting quite a low swing%. But we won't have Kopech's pitchf/x data until Sept. when I think he gets called up.
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Post by bookiemetts on Aug 23, 2016 12:21:24 GMT -5
All this talk of predictive stats and such has me thinking. Does anyone know if any teams or researchers have used machine learning to analyze stats and make predictions? This isn't my field of expertise and I don't know much about it, but it seems like it would be cool to mess around with.
I wonder if I can get my hands on some free software and see what happens...
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Post by deepjohn on Aug 23, 2016 14:34:27 GMT -5
All this talk of predictive stats and such has me thinking. Does anyone know if any teams or researchers have used machine learning to analyze stats and make predictions? This isn't my field of expertise and I don't know much about it, but it seems like it would be cool to mess around with. I wonder if I can get my hands on some free software and see what happens... Something like this, Monte Carlo simulations?
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Post by bookiemetts on Aug 23, 2016 16:08:29 GMT -5
All this talk of predictive stats and such has me thinking. Does anyone know if any teams or researchers have used machine learning to analyze stats and make predictions? This isn't my field of expertise and I don't know much about it, but it seems like it would be cool to mess around with. I wonder if I can get my hands on some free software and see what happens... Something like this, Monte Carlo simulations? Not quite. Basically machine learning is an early "subset" of A.I. I guess. You want to use this code to make a prediction. So first you give it a "training set", basically a huge database with a bunch of input variables and the corresponding output. In this case you could input a bunch of minor league pitcher's data or something, and output their first 5 seasons of MLB ERA (just as an example). Then the code "learns" from the training set and creates a function which uses the input data and predicts the final MLB ERA while minimizing error. Then basically you just give it unique unknown datapoints (Kopech's minor league stats or something) and it makes a prediction. You could theoretically use this with a bunch of pitchfx data trends to predict which pitchers may need TJS in the future or breakout season candidates for free agent signings / trade targets. (Find the Jake Arrietas) I don't know what kind of accuracy you can get with this stuff, but it's interesting at least.
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Post by ryan24 on Aug 23, 2016 16:34:40 GMT -5
...In that sense, deepjohn is absolutely right to point to Kopech's tremendously low Iso allowed as an ameliorating factor for his high BB+HBP rate. But we're talking something like a 10% adjustment (according to the seat of my pants, and I'm already in my pajamas). And it has nothing to do with ml hitters not chasing; it's entirely a function of a pitcher already trying a more advanced approach and sometimes missing his spot and hence throwing pitches out of the zone when he was perfectly capable of throwing a strike (but one with a higher chance of being hit hard). Well, my idea was that since K-BB is the predictive stat, then pitchers with the same K-BB will have BB rates that vary inversely with their swing%. BB rate should increase as swing% does down. In other words, pitchers with the same predictive kwERA are walking more or less batters based on how often batters swing. Batters swing less at certain kinds of pitchers (overmatched, bailing out, perceived to be wild, velocity, spin rate, or for so many reasons.) I found a few real world examples, purely as illustrations: K-BB BB% Swing% FB veloChris Archer 19.4% 8.4% 45% 95 Corey Kluber 19.2% 6.2% 48% 92 Jon Gray 16.7% 8.1% 49% 95 M. Tanaka 16.9% 4.1% 50.5% 92 D. Pomeranz 16.5% 9.8% 45.5% 91.3 Z. Greinke 16.3% 4.7% 50.7% 91.3 It's the K-BB that matters for reducing runs allowed, not the BB rate, provided that the pitcher is deceptive and avoids hard contact. Kopech, who has an extreme high K-BB and high BB, with a 98 MPH velocity (91 on his slider!!), high spin rate, and is very deceptive (almost no hard contact), should be getting quite a low swing%. But we won't have Kopech's pitchf/x data until Sept. when I think he gets called up. Do you have comparison data for kopech versus the guys in your 3 blocks of years where there was a high injury washout rate. Is there any similarities to their stats to kopech? I know deepjohn you are very high on this kid, but my biggest fear is that they bring him along too fast and he blows out his arm. It seems he needs to grow into his body. He needs additional deceptive pitches so he does not have to over throw his fastball. Lastly I think his brain and experience need to catch up to his gifted physical tools, so he knows when to throw the big pitch and listen to his body when he does not have that big pitch so he can go to something else and survive.
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