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Post by deepjohn on Aug 23, 2016 17:47:20 GMT -5
Do you have comparison data for kopech versus the guys in your 3 blocks of years where there was a high injury washout rate. Is there any similarities to their stats to kopech? I know deepjohn you are very high on this kid, but my biggest fear is that they bring him along too fast and he blows out his arm. It seems he needs to grow into his body. He needs additional deceptive pitches so he does not have to over throw his fastball. Lastly I think his brain and experience need to catch up to his gifted physical tools, so he knows when to throw the big pitch and listen to his body when he does not have that big pitch so he can go to something else and survive. Bill James has this to say (excerpted from this): I think the takeaway is that a move to the bullpen would not risk injury, as long as he's not asked to pitch beyond the point where he is tired. And oh yeah, tomorrow is Kopech Day!
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 23, 2016 17:51:28 GMT -5
I think fatigue pitches happen much more often in long innings. That should be the focus more than strict number of pitches per game. I bet a pitcher is 100 times better off throwing 100 pitches over 10 innings than he is throwing 100 pitches in 3 2/3 innings.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 23, 2016 19:27:41 GMT -5
Except that to throw more innings while only going 70 pitches a game, a pitcher would have to pitch every fourth day, which could theoretically mean he's more tired for every single pitch he throws in this system.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 23, 2016 22:20:22 GMT -5
...In that sense, deepjohn is absolutely right to point to Kopech's tremendously low Iso allowed as an ameliorating factor for his high BB+HBP rate. But we're talking something like a 10% adjustment (according to the seat of my pants, and I'm already in my pajamas). And it has nothing to do with ml hitters not chasing; it's entirely a function of a pitcher already trying a more advanced approach and sometimes missing his spot and hence throwing pitches out of the zone when he was perfectly capable of throwing a strike (but one with a higher chance of being hit hard). Well, my idea was that since K-BB is the predictive stat, then pitchers with the same K-BB will have BB rates that vary inversely with their swing%. BB rate should increase as swing% does down. What you're actually trying to do (to begin with) is infer Swing% from K% and BB% rate, correct? Or from K% and K%-BB%, which is the same thing. If Kopech were an MLB pitcher with his K and BB rates, you'd expect him to have .604 Z-Swing and .315 O-Swing. The average SP 2008-2015 had .622 and .292. Your further hypothesis is that hardness of contact can be thrown into the equation as well. And it's true! And furthermore, MLB pitchers with low HR/FB (relative to K and BB rates) tend to have lower O-Swing%. But adding Kopech's 0 HR allowed reduces our estimate of a-Kopech like MLB pitcher's O-Swing% only to .308. The relationships between Swing% and hardness of contact at the MLB level are very weak. I don't think there's any justification for arguing that they are an order of magnitude larger in A ball. And you'd have to reduce his hypothesized O-Swing% hugely in order to explain the high BB% as an artifact of that.
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Post by deepjohn on Aug 23, 2016 23:01:47 GMT -5
What you're actually trying to do (to begin with) is infer Swing% from K% and BB% rate, correct? Or from K% and K%-BB%, which is the same thing. If Kopech were an MLB pitcher with his K and BB rates, you'd expect him to have .604 Z-Swing and .315 O-Swing. The average SP 2008-2015 had .622 and .292. Your further hypothesis is that hardness of contact can be thrown into the equation as well. And it's true! And furthermore, MLB pitchers with low HR/FB (relative to K and BB rates) tend to have lower O-Swing%. But adding Kopech's 0 HR allowed reduces our estimate of a-Kopech like MLB pitcher's O-Swing% only to .308. The relationships between Swing% and hardness of contact at the MLB level are very weak. I don't think there's any justification for arguing that they are an order of magnitude larger in A ball. And you'd have to reduce his hypothesized O-Swing% hugely in order to explain the high BB% as an artifact of that. Nice, Do you have one of your Ministry of Magic spreadsheets for this? Or some other source for this wizardry? I was just taking the (I think) simple view for now that fewer swings means more Ks and more BBs. ADD: I'm guessing that Kopech will be more similar to Syndergaard with high O-Swing% and low HR/BIP. Velocity and spin rate cures a lot of boo boos. I was leaving out the granularity of O and Z-swing%, figuring I can wait a little while until I can start to see Kopech's actual pitchf/x data what, next week? And let's not forget, it is has just turned Kopech Day!
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Post by rjp313jr on Aug 24, 2016 10:36:55 GMT -5
I was trying to catch up on this thread and couldn't get the 2 pages of talk about Kopech being called up in September and comparisons to Fernandez and Nolan Ryan. Why are we comparing this kid to two of the greatest pitchers ever?
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Post by michael on Aug 24, 2016 11:03:36 GMT -5
I was trying to catch up on this thread and couldn't get the 2 pages of talk about Kopech being called up in September and comparisons to Fernandez and Nolan Ryan. Why are we comparing this kid to two of the greatest pitchers ever? "Because this a prospects site and that's what we do here!" Countless posters from the sites inception
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 24, 2016 11:36:05 GMT -5
What you're actually trying to do (to begin with) is infer Swing% from K% and BB% rate, correct? Or from K% and K%-BB%, which is the same thing. If Kopech were an MLB pitcher with his K and BB rates, you'd expect him to have .604 Z-Swing and .315 O-Swing. The average SP 2008-2015 had .622 and .292. Your further hypothesis is that hardness of contact can be thrown into the equation as well. And it's true! And furthermore, MLB pitchers with low HR/FB (relative to K and BB rates) tend to have lower O-Swing%. But adding Kopech's 0 HR allowed reduces our estimate of a-Kopech like MLB pitcher's O-Swing% only to .308. The relationships between Swing% and hardness of contact at the MLB level are very weak. I don't think there's any justification for arguing that they are an order of magnitude larger in A ball. And you'd have to reduce his hypothesized O-Swing% hugely in order to explain the high BB% as an artifact of that. Nice, Do you have one of your Ministry of Magic spreadsheets for this? Or some other source for this wizardry? I was just taking the (I think) simple view for now that fewer swings means more Ks and more BBs. ADD: I'm guessing that Kopech will be more similar to Syndergaard with high O-Swing% and low HR/BIP. Velocity and spin rate cures a lot of boo boos. I was leaving out the granularity of O and Z-swing%, figuring I can wait a little while until I can start to see Kopech's actual pitchf/x data what, next week? And let's not forget, it is has just turned Kopech Day! Regression on all 1201 SP seasons 2008 to 2015, minimum 80 IP. For O-swing%, r = .65, p = 1.6E-143. Simple linear function of K%, BB%, and HR/FB (I tested for non-linearities and interactions).
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Aug 24, 2016 21:52:03 GMT -5
I was trying to catch up on this thread and couldn't get the 2 pages of talk about Kopech being called up in September and comparisons to Fernandez and Nolan Ryan. Why are we comparing this kid to two of the greatest pitchers ever?Because comparing him to a couple of journeymen wouldn't be fun, at all? Isn't that reason enough?
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Post by deepjohn on Aug 25, 2016 2:08:34 GMT -5
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Post by rjp313jr on Aug 25, 2016 8:32:28 GMT -5
I was trying to catch up on this thread and couldn't get the 2 pages of talk about Kopech being called up in September and comparisons to Fernandez and Nolan Ryan. Why are we comparing this kid to two of the greatest pitchers ever?Because comparing him to a couple of journeymen wouldn't be fun, at all? Isn't that reason enough? Depends what you want out of the comparison. If you want to play the dreamer of what you're going to do with your lottery money after you buy a ticket then yea keep being unrealistic. The funny thing is, Ryan and Fernandez couldn't be any more different from a pitching standpoint unless one was left handed. They aren't just useless comps they are ridiculously random like people just took two random names out of the history books.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 25, 2016 9:09:39 GMT -5
BA:
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Post by deepjohn on Aug 25, 2016 14:55:54 GMT -5
Just want to add some observations on Kopech's performance last night (8/24). which may have been the most dominant one yet. - Reports say that Kopech was mixing in a lot of secondary pitches, and according to the Gameday app I watched, he was painting the edges.
- He pitched strong into the 7th inning, where he still hit 100.5 MPH (per soxscout).
- These were good hitters who could not make hard contact, and there were no fly balls that were pulled.
- His slider has become a "devastating weapon" (per his pitching coach), and of the 10Ks, 9 were swinging.
Draw your own conclusions, but for me, it's getting really hard to see why Kopech would not be called up.
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Post by jmei on Aug 25, 2016 15:32:54 GMT -5
Ironically, the better he looks, the less reason there is to call him up to the majors. If you think he's a starting pitcher long-term, especially one with a bright future and who looks more advanced than anticipated, he desperately needs to build innings (he's only at 51.1 IP, and he only has two more regular season Salem starts). The best (only) way to do that is to keep him starting in the minors (including the Carolina League playoffs) and then Fall Instructional League and the AFL after that. If you bring him up as an MLB reliever, it makes it very difficult for him to build up the innings he needs to stay on a starting pitcher track, especially if they make the Divisional Series and he sticks on the playoff roster. Guys in AA who have never thrown more than 80 or so innings in a season are in a tough spot developmentally.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 25, 2016 15:41:22 GMT -5
according to the Gameday app I watched, he was painting the edges. FWIW, I wouldn't make anything of this. It's likely just a guy in the press box making a rough estimate, and beyond that, many minor league press boxes have awful angles to the plate.
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Post by deepjohn on Aug 25, 2016 16:02:03 GMT -5
according to the Gameday app I watched, he was painting the edges. FWIW, I wouldn't make anything of this. It's likely just a guy in the press box making a rough estimate, and beyond that, many minor league press boxes have awful angles to the plate. The marketing claims it's using SportVision data. It's not clear if that's only major or also minor league ball. MiLB does seem to display just as quickly as the MLB app. ADD: the coder selects whether it's a ball or a strike, but not, it seems from this description, the location:
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 25, 2016 16:23:27 GMT -5
Ironically, the better he looks, the less reason there is to call him up to the majors. If you think he's a starting pitcher long-term, especially one with a bright future and who looks more advanced than anticipated, he desperately needs to build innings (he's only at 51.1 IP, and he only has two more regular season Salem starts). The best (only) way to do that is to keep him starting in the minors (including the Carolina League playoffs) and then Fall Instructional League and the AFL after that. If you bring him up as an MLB reliever, it makes it very difficult for him to build up the innings he needs to stay on a starting pitcher track, especially if they make the Divisional Series and he sticks on the playoff roster. Guys in AA who have never thrown more than 80 or so innings in a season are in a tough spot developmentally. If he keeps pitching like this through the Carolina league playoffs the Red Sox could call him up as a reliever to finish the season and help in the playoffs then send him to AFL after the postseason ends. Essentially they would be substituting a 2-6 week MLB call-up for Fall instructional league - not much of a hindrance to his innings. With the recent reviews of his slider being positive and his walks dropping drastically, it sounds like may be able to contribute now in the area the Red Sox need most. It's also possible that he comes up, struggles with his command during mop-up duty and is then shipped over to Fall instructs, but that shouldn't hinder his development. Either way, if he's tearing up AA next year then a June 1 callup would give a great boost to the rotation.
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Post by deepjohn on Aug 25, 2016 16:30:25 GMT -5
Ironically, the better he looks, the less reason there is to call him up to the majors. If you think he's a starting pitcher long-term, especially one with a bright future and who looks more advanced than anticipated, he desperately needs to build innings (he's only at 51.1 IP, and he only has two more regular season Salem starts). The best (only) way to do that is to keep him starting in the minors (including the Carolina League playoffs) and then Fall Instructional League and the AFL after that. If you bring him up as an MLB reliever, it makes it very difficult for him to build up the innings he needs to stay on a starting pitcher track, especially if they make the Divisional Series and he sticks on the playoff roster. Guys in AA who have never thrown more than 80 or so innings in a season are in a tough spot developmentally. You make a good case for calling him up as a starter. It's not far-fetched that his pitchf/x data (which the Sox have seen, but the public hasn't yet) would show that his velocity, spin rates, movement and deceptive release points are already as good as, or better than any of the current starters. Do the Sox believe this relatively new body of pitchf/x data is predictive of MLB success? We'll see...
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Post by iakovos11 on Aug 25, 2016 16:43:53 GMT -5
He hasn't even thrown a pitch in AA yet. And you want him to start in Boston? That's a perfect way to screw up what's looking like a really good starting pitching PROSPECT.
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Post by jmei on Aug 25, 2016 17:03:45 GMT -5
Ironically, the better he looks, the less reason there is to call him up to the majors. If you think he's a starting pitcher long-term, especially one with a bright future and who looks more advanced than anticipated, he desperately needs to build innings (he's only at 51.1 IP, and he only has two more regular season Salem starts). The best (only) way to do that is to keep him starting in the minors (including the Carolina League playoffs) and then Fall Instructional League and the AFL after that. If you bring him up as an MLB reliever, it makes it very difficult for him to build up the innings he needs to stay on a starting pitcher track, especially if they make the Divisional Series and he sticks on the playoff roster. Guys in AA who have never thrown more than 80 or so innings in a season are in a tough spot developmentally. If he keeps pitching like this through the Carolina league playoffs the Red Sox could call him up as a reliever to finish the season and help in the playoffs then send him to AFL after the postseason ends. Essentially they would be substituting a 2-6 week MLB call-up for Fall instructional league - not much of a hindrance to his innings. With the recent reviews of his slider being positive and his walks dropping drastically, it sounds like may be able to contribute now in the area the Red Sox need most. It's also possible that he comes up, struggles with his command during mop-up duty and is then shipped over to Fall instructs, but that shouldn't hinder his development. Either way, if he's tearing up AA next year then a June 1 callup would give a great boost to the rotation. I can't imagine that you could call him up in mid-September and get him in enough games to build up the necessary confidence to use him in literally the highest-leverage situations of the entire season. And if he's just throwing mop-up innings and isn't a playoff roster candidate, what's the point of calling him up?
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Post by tonyc on Aug 25, 2016 17:42:19 GMT -5
As enthusiastic as I am about Kopech (I began this thread) I'm desperate for them not to bring him up now- aside from the innings buildup and psychology of a starter requiring reinforcement, he must reinforce the lessons he's learning just in recent starts about feel and usage of his secondary stuff. Deepjohn I share your enthusiasm and am grateful for these links and they reinforce that his abilities in cutter/change slider are very recently undergoing change. Being kept in Salem and then AFL will enable him to reinforce and refine this process, wheras dealing prematurely with Boston in a pressure situation would involve a regression of staying with more fastballs. I find Moncada a far more refined/reinforced prospect who must get some at bats against lefties but may be ready. Also, the presence of Kelly, and perhaps Koji and Buccholtz may alleviate the stresses on the pen.
It would be interesting to know the inner 'sox conversations about the potential of Kopech vs. Espinoza prior to the trade. I suspect that with DD's leanings, he would've been hard pressed to unload Kopech,who also may not have had A.E's value at the time. Prior to this start I wondered about a Kopech vs. Epinoza thread, though maybe the Groome vs. Kopech conversation brought up here may be more interesting. Two things amongst many others stand out about Kopech to me- the amazing gains in physicality enabling increased sitting velocity deep into games, and his great coachablility which has already enabled great improvement in deliveries and secondaries- and imply further improvements may continue. Wow, this is fun!
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Post by deepjohn on Aug 25, 2016 18:18:40 GMT -5
He hasn't even thrown a pitch in AA yet. And you want him to start in Boston? That's a perfect way to screw up what's looking like a really good starting pitching PROSPECT. But what if he's not a prospect any more? He's being called the hottest starting pitcher in the minor leagues. His coach says he has two devastating weapons in the 100 MPH FB and 91 MPH slider, and he's still throwing 100 after 85 pitches. He sure isn't walking batters. He was also commanding the new cut-change last night, based on what I saw on gameday, just painting the edges. Control and command, check. So what if he's ready now? and doesn't need more innings? Then he will LOVE THAT DIRTY WATER.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Aug 25, 2016 18:22:54 GMT -5
He is not getting called up this season bye.
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Post by bnich on Aug 25, 2016 18:37:49 GMT -5
Ironically, the better he looks, the less reason there is to call him up to the majors. If you think he's a starting pitcher long-term, especially one with a bright future and who looks more advanced than anticipated, he desperately needs to build innings (he's only at 51.1 IP, and he only has two more regular season Salem starts). The best (only) way to do that is to keep him starting in the minors (including the Carolina League playoffs) and then Fall Instructional League and the AFL after that. If you bring him up as an MLB reliever, it makes it very difficult for him to build up the innings he needs to stay on a starting pitcher track, especially if they make the Divisional Series and he sticks on the playoff roster. Guys in AA who have never thrown more than 80 or so innings in a season are in a tough spot developmentally. If he keeps pitching like this through the Carolina league playoffs the Red Sox could call him up as a reliever to finish the season and help in the playoffs then send him to AFL after the postseason ends. Essentially they would be substituting a 2-6 week MLB call-up for Fall instructional league - not much of a hindrance to his innings. With the recent reviews of his slider being positive and his walks dropping drastically, it sounds like may be able to contribute now in the area the Red Sox need most. It's also possible that he comes up, struggles with his command during mop-up duty and is then shipped over to Fall instructs, but that shouldn't hinder his development. Either way, if he's tearing up AA next year then a June 1 callup would give a great boost to the rotation. I really don't get people even thinking he could get called up. He's 20yo. Has only 51.1 innings logged this year/ since he was suspended last season for that matter. He's only in A+. It's not happening. Give it up people.
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Post by iakovos11 on Aug 25, 2016 19:00:52 GMT -5
If he keeps pitching like this through the Carolina league playoffs the Red Sox could call him up as a reliever to finish the season and help in the playoffs then send him to AFL after the postseason ends. Essentially they would be substituting a 2-6 week MLB call-up for Fall instructional league - not much of a hindrance to his innings. With the recent reviews of his slider being positive and his walks dropping drastically, it sounds like may be able to contribute now in the area the Red Sox need most. It's also possible that he comes up, struggles with his command during mop-up duty and is then shipped over to Fall instructs, but that shouldn't hinder his development. Either way, if he's tearing up AA next year then a June 1 callup would give a great boost to the rotation. I really don't get people even thinking he could get called up. He's 20yo. Has only 51.1 innings logged this year/ since he was suspended last season for that matter. He's only in A+. It's not happening. Give it up people deepjohn. Fixed it for you. The over the top statements and hyperbole are ruining this thread. I mean, if the hottest player in MiLB was in the GCL, would he still be worthy of being called up? Lowell? Greenville? It's like innings and experience mean nothing. My God, MLB players have probably never seen anyone throw 100mph before. They wouldn't know what to do. Certainly if A+ hitters can't touch him (or haven't over his last, what 5-6 starts), then he should be just fine against MLB hitters. There's hardly a difference.
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