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Post by deepjohn on Aug 25, 2016 19:44:08 GMT -5
The over the top statements and hyperbole are ruining this thread. I mean, if the hottest player in MiLB was in the GCL, would he still be worthy of being called up? Lowell? Greenville? It's like innings and experience mean nothing. My God, MLB players have probably never seen anyone throw 100mph before. They wouldn't know what to do. Certainly if A+ hitters can't touch him (or haven't over his last, what 5-6 starts), then he should be just fine against MLB hitters. There's hardly a difference. I think it's fair to say that DDo jumped Porcello from A+ to MLB, with numbers that were not nearly as good. Full year A+ has (what I thought) was a surprisingly good correlation with MLB success, based on a 50 innings sample like what Kopech nearly has. Also, being the hottest pitcher in the minors at only 20 and in A+ are very good points in his favor, not against him! That is what makes him so extraordinary. If there were such a thing as the hottest pitcher in the minors in an even lower level (I don't know, is there?), then that would also be remarkable! And no, AFAIK, MLB players have not seen anyone with a 98 MPH FB and a 91 slider, unless they've faced Syndergaard. Not even Chapman has a secondary pitch that fast. I do appreciate your responses. You are really too kind.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,989
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Post by jimoh on Aug 25, 2016 20:06:08 GMT -5
I think it's fair to say that DDo jumped Porcello from A+ to MLB, with numbers that were not nearly as good. Full year A+ has (what I thought) was a surprisingly good correlation with MLB success, based on a 50 innings sample like what Kopech nearly has. [...] Aren't both of these points very weak? Porcello pitched 128 innings at A+ at age 19 then was promoted the next year, so his promotion in no way suggests a promotion for Kopech *this year* And the little "surprisingly good correlation" study you cite is for *eventual* mlb success, not immediate precocious mlb success. Kopech and I have almost the same chance of pitching in mlb this year.
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Post by deepjohn on Aug 25, 2016 20:15:46 GMT -5
I think it's fair to say that DDo jumped Porcello from A+ to MLB, with numbers that were not nearly as good. Full year A+ has (what I thought) was a surprisingly good correlation with MLB success, based on a 50 innings sample like what Kopech nearly has. [...] Aren't both of these points very weak? Porcello pitched 128 innings at A+ at age 19 then was promoted the next year, so his promotion in no way suggests a promotion for Kopech *this year* And the little "surprisingly good correlation" study you cite is for *eventual* mlb success, not immediate precocious mlb success. Kopech and I have almost the same chance of pitching in mlb this year. It's not a matter of timing, is my point, but of success or even dominance at the level. Porcello's success at A+ was not as great as Kopech's (unless you think Kopech will regress backwards or something in a longer sample). I think if the study had filtered for only those who had immediate precocious success, the correlation would have been stronger. Just my hunch.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 25, 2016 20:17:32 GMT -5
Porcello is a really good argument against promoting Kopech quickly. He wasted two years of service before getting good. Same thing with Andrew Miller, who was rushed through the minors by the Tigers (and Marlins, post-Cabrera trade), and needed basically five full years to put it back together.
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Post by deepjohn on Aug 25, 2016 20:21:47 GMT -5
Good point, James (as always ). Those are arguments against whether those examples should have happened. But those are also both arguments in favor of the likelihood of it happening, because they did happen. And Kopech may not have all the same co-variables that caused trouble in the others.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Aug 25, 2016 21:01:32 GMT -5
I really don't get people even thinking he could get called up. He's 20yo. Has only 51.1 innings logged this year/ since he was suspended last season for that matter. He's only in A+. It's not happening. Give it up people deepjohn. Fixed it for you. The over the top statements and hyperbole are ruining this thread. I mean, if the hottest player in MiLB was in the GCL, would he still be worthy of being called up? Lowell? Greenville? It's like innings and experience mean nothing. My God, MLB players have probably never seen anyone throw 100mph before. They wouldn't know what to do. Certainly if A+ hitters can't touch him (or haven't over his last, what 5-6 starts), then he should be just fine against MLB hitters. There's hardly a difference. Ah, the sweet voices of reason.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 25, 2016 21:35:39 GMT -5
If he keeps pitching like this through the Carolina league playoffs the Red Sox could call him up as a reliever to finish the season and help in the playoffs then send him to AFL after the postseason ends. Essentially they would be substituting a 2-6 week MLB call-up for Fall instructional league - not much of a hindrance to his innings. With the recent reviews of his slider being positive and his walks dropping drastically, it sounds like may be able to contribute now in the area the Red Sox need most. It's also possible that he comes up, struggles with his command during mop-up duty and is then shipped over to Fall instructs, but that shouldn't hinder his development. Either way, if he's tearing up AA next year then a June 1 callup would give a great boost to the rotation. I can't imagine that you could call him up in mid-September and get him in enough games to build up the necessary confidence to use him in literally the highest-leverage situations of the entire season. And if he's just throwing mop-up innings and isn't a playoff roster candidate, what's the point of calling him up? If Kopech came up it would be to replace uehara in high leverage situations. I think he has the stuff to do that now, but it's unknown whether his new-found command will fall apart once he sees MLB hitters. He would likely be placed in low leverage situations the first outing or two to see if that may happen. Also, Farrell wouldn't put him in high leverage situations until he shows 'enough grit'. Remember, the whole point is to win at the MLB level. It would be a rush for sure, but it's worked before for other pitchers and teams, so it's worth looking at. In the meantime he has at least 3 more starts, so we have another couple if weeks to see if he keeps this up.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 25, 2016 22:31:17 GMT -5
What Kopech has done over his last three starts translates to about a 2.80 - 2.85 ERA in MLB (my level translations, developed for the Sox in '05). I actually think that deepjohn is right; if he pitches like that (big if), he could be an asset to an MLB bullpen right now.
OTOH, what he's done over his last 5 starts is more like 3.70. Which is an MLB bullpen pitcher, but just another guy.
If we had a desperate need for an 8th inning guy in the upcoming post-season, fast-tracking Kopech into that role, starting now, might very well be a gamble worth taking. But we don't.
In reality, the post-season pen is going to be Kimbrel, Pomeranz or Rodriguez, Ziegler, Ross, Barnes, and two of Uehara, Buchholz, and Tazawa. Given the well-articulated downside to this experiment, when the most likely upside is he might be an improvement over Buchholz for the last spot in the pen ... it's not an idea that should be mentioned again. Seriously.
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Post by giatree12 on Aug 26, 2016 5:13:07 GMT -5
Another jump from High A ball straight to the majors was Jose Fernandez. Granted he had better command/control at the time of his promotion (and partially rushed due to injuries), but I don't feel like Fernandez is that far off of a comparison. From what Ive seen and heard about Kopech, his fastball is a tick faster more consistently, and his slider could be a devastating pitch. The end game is how his changeup develops. If he can make his changeup above average or plus in time, refine his control/command (which seems to be the case the last 3-4 starts), then health may be the only thing that could hold him back from being an ace/really good 2. It has become a habit to mark my calendar to when Kopech's next start is so I can listen to the Salem radio feed
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Aug 26, 2016 6:54:54 GMT -5
Another jump from High A ball straight to the majors was Jose Fernandez. Granted he had better command/control at the time of his promotion (and partially rushed due to injuries), but I don't feel like Fernandez is that far off of a comparison. From what Ive seen and heard about Kopech, his fastball is a tick faster more consistently, and his slider could be a devastating pitch. The end game is how his changeup develops. If he can make his changeup above average or plus in time, refine his control/command (which seems to be the case the last 3-4 starts), then health may be the only thing that could hold him back from being an ace/really good 2. It has become a habit to mark my calendar to when Kopech's next start is so I can listen to the Salem radio feed Heck, if all those things happened he'd be a RH Kershaw.
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Post by deepjohn on Aug 26, 2016 10:36:08 GMT -5
What Kopech has done over his last three starts translates to about a 2.80 - 2.85 ERA in MLB (my level translations, developed for the Sox in '05). I actually think that deepjohn is right; if he pitches like that (big if), he could be an asset to an MLB bullpen right now. OTOH, what he's done over his last 5 starts is more like 3.70. Which is an MLB bullpen pitcher, but just another guy. If we had a desperate need for an 8th inning guy in the upcoming post-season, fast-tracking Kopech into that role, starting now, might very well be a gamble worth taking. But we don't.In reality, the post-season pen is going to be Kimbrel, Pomeranz or Rodriguez, Ziegler, Ross, Barnes, and two of Uehara, Buchholz, and Tazawa. Given the well-articulated downside to this experiment, when the most likely upside is he might be an improvement over Buchholz for the last spot in the pen ... it's not an idea that should be mentioned again. Seriously. This is true, the re-emergence of stellar Buchholz has enormously increased the post-season chances of the Red Sox, in ways that I think have not dawned on people yet. But does the sudden emergence of ERA 2.80 Kopech continue, or get better yet, making him an improvement on Kimbrel? I apologize in advance but I'm just not on board with the downside, however well-articulated it is. The goal is to win. When Chapman/Rondon come in, or Cody Allen/Andrew Miller come in, I think DDo/ownership will want our best coming in opposite them. This is for all the marbles.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 26, 2016 10:48:46 GMT -5
Is it possible to have two Kopech threads, with one that doesn't speak of him pitching in the majors this year and is only discussion of him as a normal prospect going through normal growth on the way to the majors? And the other can be deepjohn talking to himself.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 26, 2016 10:50:52 GMT -5
Is it possible to have two Kopech threads, with one that doesn't speak of him pitching in the majors this year and is only discussion of him as a normal prospect going through normal growth on the way to the majors? And the other can be deepjohn talking to himself. Now you know how we all felt when you couldn't resist posting every tweet speculating about what Ruben Amaro wanted for Cole Hamels.
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Post by beantown on Aug 26, 2016 10:53:25 GMT -5
This is true, the re-emergence of stellar Buchholz has enormously increased the post-season chances of the Red Sox, in ways that I think have not dawned on people yet. But does the sudden emergence of ERA 2.80 Kopech continue, or get better yet, making him an improvement on Kimbrel?
I apologize in advance but I'm just not on board with the downside, however well-articulated it is. The goal is to win. When Chapman/Rondon come in, or Cody Allen/Andrew Miller come in, I think DDo/ownership will want our best coming in opposite them. This is for all the marbles. ....... oh my god
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 26, 2016 11:25:23 GMT -5
Is it possible to have two Kopech threads, with one that doesn't speak of him pitching in the majors this year and is only discussion of him as a normal prospect going through normal growth on the way to the majors? And the other can be deepjohn talking to himself. Now you know how we all felt when you couldn't resist posting every tweet speculating about what Ruben Amaro wanted for Cole Hamels. Is a thread on the trade proposal subforum really comparable to a thread dealing with a specific Red Sox prospect? A lot of people want to talk about Kopech without getting distracted by "is he better than Kimbrel right now?" or "If he continues to pitch like he has in his last 3 A+ starts and then improves and never regresses as I and his coaches expect, he'll be the best pitcher in baseball history" discussion. If I was actually distracting a legitimate thread and not a wildly speculative trade proposal thread, then I apologize.
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Post by deepjohn on Aug 26, 2016 11:48:50 GMT -5
That's kind of what he meant by The lady doth protest too much, methinks.
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Post by Don Caballero on Aug 26, 2016 11:54:47 GMT -5
If we can have 2 threads about Kopech, I want 3 threads about Keith Couch. Fair is fair.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Aug 26, 2016 12:36:19 GMT -5
And, considering his 900+ OPS right now, I get 4 on Mauricio Dubon.
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Post by deepjohn on Aug 28, 2016 12:30:09 GMT -5
I wouldn't want to start his 40-man clock and be forced to lose him for nothing if he's not ready by 24. True. The question then becomes, can they Carlos Martinez him? But yeah, ideally their pen is sufficient as constituted. Problem is, with Kimbrel at the back end, it looks like it's not. So is it worth burning a 40-man spot? Idk...the 40th spot usually isn't carrying the most crucial player, but you never wanna lose a good talent to the rule 5. What are we talking about, exactly? Kopech signed his first contract at 18 (June 2014) so I think he's protected from being lost for nothing in the Rule 5 draft for five years. So to protect him from the December Rule 5 draft of 2019, when he's 23, he would need to be added to the 40 man then if he's not already on it. Correct? Putting him on the 40 man now would not change that "clock". Right? Are you talking about removing him from the 40 man by subjecting him to waivers? The only other 40-man "clock" I know of is his service clock, but that's for purposes of arbitration and free agency, and has nothing to do with being "forced to lose him for nothing if he's not ready". Am I missing something (as usual )?
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Post by jmei on Aug 28, 2016 12:38:53 GMT -5
Telson is saying that if you add Kopech to the 40-man roster now, that's one fewer 40-man spot you can use to protect other players from the Rule 5 draft this offseason.
Meanwhile, jimed is saying that if you put him on the 40-man now, you start burning his minor league options next year (assuming he is sent down to the minors to start 2017). Each player gets three option years, so if Kopech isn't ready for full-time MLB by age 24, he'll be out of options and will have to clear waivers to be sent down to the minors.
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Post by deepjohn on Aug 28, 2016 13:36:09 GMT -5
Telson is saying that if you add Kopech to the 40-man roster now, that's one fewer 40-man spot you can use to protect other players from the Rule 5 draft this offseason. Meanwhile, jimed is saying that if you put him on the 40-man now, you start burning his minor league options next year (assuming he is sent down to the minors to start 2017). Each player gets three option years, so if Kopech isn't ready for full-time MLB by age 24, he'll be out of options and will have to clear waivers to be sent down to the minors. So he would not burn the option this year, since he would end the year on the MLB roster. Next year he would burn the option, if he was sent down for more than 20 days. But he would burn that option year anyway if at any point next year he was brought up and optioned back in the same year for more than 20 days. And if for any reason, he doesn't burn three option years before age 24, he still has the remaining option years until they are actually used. So the flip side to jimed's concern is that, for many of the better pitchers like Price, Porcello, Buchholz, the option years have never been used, and now after five years of service time, can't be used without the player's consent. I think that's why a team would actually prefer to use options early on players they think are very likely to be good. Use them while you can.
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Post by ray88h66 on Aug 28, 2016 14:34:55 GMT -5
This thread gets more entertaining every day. I just read a guy with the most posts on the board dis a guy for posting too much and distracting a thread.
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Post by philarhody on Aug 28, 2016 15:36:46 GMT -5
I always click this thread to read something new and exciting about Michael Kopech. I always leave this thread disappointed by some half-hearted, pitiful debate that's survived an entire season of baseball.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 28, 2016 18:50:31 GMT -5
It's going to get more pitiful on September 2nd.
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Post by dnfl333 on Aug 28, 2016 19:23:00 GMT -5
Beane would have him up already
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