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Post by deepjohn on Jul 29, 2016 9:39:08 GMT -5
SOS with these pitchers who throw in the high 90's. No control and lack of a secondary pitch. See Kelly and Barnes Read Kopech's starting profile and watch those guys pitch- they all have secondary pitches. Barnes is in the bullpen cause he doesn't have a good 3rd pitch, Kelly cause he can't command anything. Kopech's 20 years old and in A ball- he's not going to turn into a big league ace overnight, but that doesn't mean he's doomed to be a bullpen arm The trade market right now is valuing potential elite closers higher than #2/#3 starters, at least for teams that plan to be in the post-season, where elite closers can pitch up to 10% of the innings. Don't believe me, just ask Theo. He just paid about $50M in surplus value for 2 months + post-season of Chapman. Kelly, Kimbrel and Kopech could be the Special K's.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 29, 2016 10:23:48 GMT -5
As I talked about on the podcast (sorry, just don't have the time to write these days... maybe someday), Kopech really labored on Saturday. Threw almost all fastballs too, so it wasn't a matter of working on the secondaries. I'll be honest that I came away thinking future closer rather than future #2 or #3, but of course, caveat being that it was a single start and the heat/humidity (yes he's from Texas, but it was humid as hell Saturday) may have factored into his struggles a bit. What sort of contact was made? I see there were only 2 hits. If he's fooling hitters into swinging when they should take, and getting soft contact, that is one of the few things that correlates well with reducing runs allowed. The hitter is getting the bat on the ball, which avoids the K, but he's just popping it up or hitting it into the ground. This ability to fool hitters also justifies throwing more balls as he nibbles on the edges more. Soft contact tends to strand runners with popups or dribblers. You can call it laboring, but he stretched all the way out to 97 pitches and had gas left in the tank. Get ready for the callup! This guy is Noah 2.0ah. The outing I was referring to was the one in Frederick where he made it to 83 pitches in 4 full innings, and he was probably between 70 and 75 after 3 (and let's be fair, that he settled back down for a quick fourth is a good thing, for sure). He only gave up 2 hits (one a well-struck double), but he faced 19 batters, walked 3, hit 2, struck out 4, the 2 hits, so 8 outs in play. MILB PBP called them 3 GO, 4 PO, 1 FO. I recall the fly out being well struck but not a particularly tough play for Monge. The pops were pops, which is good. The ground balls, I admittedly can't really recall how tough the plays were. And there were 3 wild pitches too. And he definitely didn't have gas left in the tank - I was a little surprised he pitched the fourth. As I'd said, hot and humid so I can give him that pass for the day, but I certainly didn't come away saying this was a no-s*** starter in the bigs.
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Post by barney27 on Jul 29, 2016 11:26:14 GMT -5
What sort of contact was made? I see there were only 2 hits. If he's fooling hitters into swinging when they should take, and getting soft contact, that is one of the few things that correlates well with reducing runs allowed. The hitter is getting the bat on the ball, which avoids the K, but he's just popping it up or hitting it into the ground. This ability to fool hitters also justifies throwing more balls as he nibbles on the edges more. Soft contact tends to strand runners with popups or dribblers. You can call it laboring, but he stretched all the way out to 97 pitches and had gas left in the tank. Get ready for the callup! This guy is Noah 2.0ah. The outing I was referring to was the one in Frederick where he made it to 83 pitches in 4 full innings, and he was probably between 70 and 75 after 3 (and let's be fair, that he settled back down for a quick fourth is a good thing, for sure). He only gave up 2 hits (one a well-struck double), but he faced 19 batters, walked 3, hit 2, struck out 4, the 2 hits, so 8 outs in play. MILB PBP called them 3 GO, 4 PO, 1 FO. I recall the fly out being well struck but not a particularly tough play for Monge. The pops were pops, which is good. The ground balls, I admittedly can't really recall how tough the plays were. And there were 3 wild pitches too. And he definitely didn't have gas left in the tank - I was a little surprised he pitched the fourth. As I'd said, hot and humid so I can give him that pass for the day, but I certainly didn't come away saying this was a no-s*** starter in the bigs. How many pro innings does kopech have? Where is he with physical deve? Any idea where his head is at? Meaning does he have the makeup to be a big leagues pitcher or is he going to just blowup when things don't go his way. Does he work hard? Do you think he has the abilty to add secondary pitches to the mix? At this point he has great potential , but could turn from prospect to suspect. Long way between low A and the majors.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 29, 2016 11:36:46 GMT -5
People need to relax with Kopech. I know Espinoza is gone, but this guy walks a ton of people, and may not ever develop a passable 3rd pitch. He has a ways to go, at least I'd hope.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 29, 2016 11:51:24 GMT -5
People need to relax with Kopech. I know Espinoza is gone, but this guy walks a ton of people, and may not ever develop a passable 3rd pitch. He has a ways to go, at least I'd hope. Yeah, even on an aggressive timetable he's still 2 years away. I'd still like to see him add a cutter, too. All of that said, if he's in MLB to stay in three years, he still makes it pretty early. He reminds me increasingly of Tyler Glasnow, who's also tall and been held back by persistent command troubles.
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Post by cto94 on Jul 29, 2016 11:52:05 GMT -5
People need to relax with Kopech. I know Espinoza is gone, but this guy walks a ton of people, and may not ever develop a passable 3rd pitch. He has a ways to go, at least I'd hope. It goes both ways. If people want to gush about Espinoza and how horrible it is that we dealt him, they should also acknowledge that Kopech performed far better at Greenville last year when only a year older. Obviously we shouldn't be proclaiming Kopech to be the Red Sox next ace right now, but realistically nobody should've been saying that about Espinoza either. Tough not to get excited when a starting pitcher is reportedly clocked at 105, and you can be excited and dream on a guy without forgetting about his warts (although I do think the control questions with Kopech may be a little overblown: when he got to pitch most of a full season last year, he averaged 3.74 BB/9, which is not great, but it's not horrible for a 19 year old in A ball either)
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,787
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Post by nomar on Jul 29, 2016 11:54:49 GMT -5
People need to relax with Kopech. I know Espinoza is gone, but this guy walks a ton of people, and may not ever develop a passable 3rd pitch. He has a ways to go, at least I'd hope. Yeah, even on an aggressive timetable he's still 2 years away. I'd still like to see him add a cutter, too. All of that said, if he's in MLB to stay in three years, he still makes it pretty early. He reminds me increasingly of Tyler Glasnow, who's also tall and been held back by persistent command troubles. That's who I've been comparing him to as well (but that's generous as of right now still).
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Post by burythehammer on Jul 29, 2016 11:59:17 GMT -5
As I talked about on the podcast (sorry, just don't have the time to write these days... maybe someday), Kopech really labored on Saturday. Threw almost all fastballs too, so it wasn't a matter of working on the secondaries. I'll be honest that I came away thinking future closer rather than future #2 or #3, but of course, caveat being that it was a single start and the heat/humidity (yes he's from Texas, but it was humid as hell Saturday) may have factored into his struggles a bit. What sort of contact was made? I see there were only 2 hits. If he's fooling hitters into swinging when they should take, and getting soft contact, that is one of the few things that correlates well with reducing runs allowed. The hitter is getting the bat on the ball, which avoids the K, but he's just popping it up or hitting it into the ground. This ability to fool hitters also justifies throwing more balls as he nibbles on the edges more. Soft contact tends to strand runners with popups or dribblers. You can call it laboring, but he stretched all the way out to 97 pitches and had gas left in the tank. Get ready for the callup! This guy is Noah 2.0ah. You're not even trying at this point.
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Post by barney27 on Jul 29, 2016 12:38:17 GMT -5
Yeah, even on an aggressive timetable he's still 2 years away. I'd still like to see him add a cutter, too. All of that said, if he's in MLB to stay in three years, he still makes it pretty early. He reminds me increasingly of Tyler Glasnow, who's also tall and been held back by persistent command troubles. That's who I've been comparing him to as well (but that's generous as of right now still). We fall in love with the fact the kid can throw it 100 mph. great. Still comes back to control, composure, and command. Control,Can you throw the ball over the plate with more than one pitch repetitively. Composure. Can you handle the crowd and an ump who is not giving you your calls. Lastly, command, can you take the scouting report, what you are throwing well tonight and the situation on the field and MAKE the batter swing at your pitch. Awful young. Could be lester or webster. Give him some time. He is not going to help you until 2019.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 29, 2016 13:37:43 GMT -5
Couldn't you say that about any draft? It doesn't seem like any pitchers ever really project to be starters past the first round or two. If they did....they'd be 1st rounders. Not really, every year when we draft pitchers we draft them to be starting pitchers and if it doesn't work out then we might later convert them to RP. This year's draft the several pitcher's we drafted after Anderson will IMO pitch in relief roles from the get-go...and a few will be fast-tracked (Nogosek, Gorst, Shawaryn-I think he's more suited for relief with only a FB/slider and low 3/4 arm slot). I disagree, how many teams over the past 4 years have been able to draft AND sign multiple guys who projected to be starters past the 2nd round? If you project to be a starter you're being drafted higher than that and in an era where you can't stock pile 1st round picks and are subject to penalties for excluding your bonus cap it's almost impossible to stock pile arms who project to be starters.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 29, 2016 15:11:13 GMT -5
People need to relax with Kopech. I know Espinoza is gone, but this guy walks a ton of people, and may not ever develop a passable 3rd pitch. He has a ways to go, at least I'd hope. It goes both ways. If people want to gush about Espinoza and how horrible it is that we dealt him, they should also acknowledge that Kopech performed far better at Greenville last year when only a year older. Obviously we shouldn't be proclaiming Kopech to be the Red Sox next ace right now, but realistically nobody should've been saying that about Espinoza either. Tough not to get excited when a starting pitcher is reportedly clocked at 105, and you can be excited and dream on a guy without forgetting about his warts (although I do think the control questions with Kopech may be a little overblown: when he got to pitch most of a full season last year, he averaged 3.74 BB/9, which is not great, but it's not horrible for a 19 year old in A ball either) You have to be very, very careful when talking about numbers in the minors. Also, "only a year older" is pretty significant when you're talking about the difference between 18 and 19 year olds.
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 30, 2016 18:37:39 GMT -5
People need to relax with Kopech. I know Espinoza is gone, but this guy walks a ton of people, and may not ever develop a passable 3rd pitch. He has a ways to go, at least I'd hope. Yeah, even on an aggressive timetable he's still 2 years away. I'd still like to see him add a cutter, too. All of that said, if he's in MLB to stay in three years, he still makes it pretty early. He reminds me increasingly of Tyler Glasnow, who's also tall and been held back by persistent command troubles. Nope. Strong disagree. Kopech has things you can't teach. Extremely athletic, effortless, deceptive delivery. The best velo and spin rate you'll ever see. His 89-91 MPH slider is already wipeout, and his 89 MPH changeup that he's just starting to throw is getting swings and misses. The command issues are wildly exagerrated. He's inducing almost all soft contact and very little hard contact. That's the hallmark of superior command, that fools batters into swinging when they should take. It's really the single most important predictor we have so far discovered. Now, if it's control you're talking about, he can throw strike after strike after strike like a strike-throwing machine. So control is not really the issue. He's just out there experimenting and learning, nibbling at the edge and trying to fool batters. As he should be. But right now, and I mean right now, he could come up to the major leagues and get the very best hitters out. He stretched out to 97 pitches the other day and was still sitting 98. This is the greatest pitcher to come out of Boston since Clemens, and the Sox know it. They wouldn't trade Kopech for Sale. He's that good.
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 30, 2016 18:43:49 GMT -5
People need to relax with Kopech. I know Espinoza is gone, but this guy walks a ton of people, and may not ever develop a passable 3rd pitch. He has a ways to go, at least I'd hope. It goes both ways. If people want to gush about Espinoza and how horrible it is that we dealt him, they should also acknowledge that Kopech performed far better at Greenville last year when only a year older. Obviously we shouldn't be proclaiming Kopech to be the Red Sox next ace right now, but realistically nobody should've been saying that about Espinoza either. Tough not to get excited when a starting pitcher is reportedly clocked at 105, and you can be excited and dream on a guy without forgetting about his warts (although I do think the control questions with Kopech may be a little overblown: when he got to pitch most of a full season last year, he averaged 3.74 BB/9, which is not great, but it's not horrible for a 19 year old in A ball either) Noah 2.0ah. That's not gushing, that's what every scout and GM in the league already knows from velo and spin rate, contact rate (exit velocity/launch angle)and effortless delivery. The Sox could get Sale for Kopech (and they could have gotten Teheran), but they won't give him up.
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Post by burythehammer on Jul 30, 2016 18:50:45 GMT -5
Stop.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 30, 2016 19:06:28 GMT -5
It goes both ways. If people want to gush about Espinoza and how horrible it is that we dealt him, they should also acknowledge that Kopech performed far better at Greenville last year when only a year older. Obviously we shouldn't be proclaiming Kopech to be the Red Sox next ace right now, but realistically nobody should've been saying that about Espinoza either. Tough not to get excited when a starting pitcher is reportedly clocked at 105, and you can be excited and dream on a guy without forgetting about his warts (although I do think the control questions with Kopech may be a little overblown: when he got to pitch most of a full season last year, he averaged 3.74 BB/9, which is not great, but it's not horrible for a 19 year old in A ball either) Noah 2.0ah. That's not gushing, that's what every scout and GM in the league already knows from velo and spin rate, contact rate (exit velocity/launch angle)and effortless delivery. The Sox could get Sale for Kopech (and they could have gotten Teheran), but they won't give him up. Why do state all these crazy things as if they were facts or otherwise obvious/generally agreed upon? You are so full of sh%^ it's not even funny. Amazing anyone reads your posts anymore. It's a colossal waste of time.
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Post by burythehammer on Jul 30, 2016 19:36:44 GMT -5
He's openly trolling and should be banned or at least given a timeout.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,787
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Post by nomar on Jul 30, 2016 19:42:09 GMT -5
Yeah can we stop this tirade? I keep looking for news or at minimum semi-relevant information in this thread, and it's always this tiresome trolling.
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Post by barney27 on Jul 30, 2016 19:42:30 GMT -5
Guys we are getting way ahead of our selves. The kid is 20 years old. He has already had 2 instants of poor immature judgement. We can get excited that he has a repeatable delivery and has sabermetrics that show he could be the second coming of Koufax. Will he handle issues, the press, travel on the road or does he become the manzeil of baseball. Does he have the mental makeup to be able to pitch in fenway or yankee stadium. After he pitches 125 innings in a season and he does well at AA. Then lets go back to the spin rates and contact rates and see where we are. Do all the good things he has going continue to develop as he goes higher.
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 30, 2016 19:56:14 GMT -5
Yeah can we stop this tirade? I keep looking for news or at minimum semi-relevant information in this thread, and it's always this tiresome trolling. This is the Michael Kopech thread, in which I linked to a relatively new interview with Bannister that supports what I'm saying, and is directly relevant to the posts I quoted (from telson and you). You shouldn't say that people who disagree with you are trolls, unless you're very sure it's true. It's offensive. Technically, a troll is someone who is makes the offensive remark. I am being polite at all times, and making remarks intended to inform and inspire devoted Red Sox fans. I am always happy to include a citation or authority, especially when asked.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,787
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Post by nomar on Jul 30, 2016 19:59:03 GMT -5
Yeah can we stop this tirade? I keep looking for news or at minimum semi-relevant information in this thread, and it's always this tiresome trolling. This is the Michael Kopech thread, in which I linked to a relatively new interview with Bannister that supports what I'm saying, and is directly relevant to the posts I quoted (from telson and you). You shouldn't say that people who disagree with you are trolls, unless you're very sure it's true. It's offensive. Technically, a troll is someone who is makes the offensive remark. I am being polite at all times, and making remarks intended to inform and inspire devoted Red Sox fans. I am always happy to include a citation or authority, especially when asked. Show me where Bannister or anyone in the world besides you said they wouldn't trade Kopech for Sale, or anything remotely near the baseless assertions you've made today alone. It's not offensive at all to say you're trolling when you're throwing around your opinion as fact without any factual backing.
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 30, 2016 20:02:35 GMT -5
This is the Michael Kopech thread, in which I linked to a relatively new interview with Bannister that supports what I'm saying, and is directly relevant to the posts I quoted (from telson and you). You shouldn't say that people who disagree with you are trolls, unless you're very sure it's true. It's offensive. Technically, a troll is someone who is makes the offensive remark. I am being polite at all times, and making remarks intended to inform and inspire devoted Red Sox fans. I am always happy to include a citation or authority, especially when asked. Show me where Bannister or anyone in the world besides you said they wouldn't trade Kopech for Sale, or anything remotely near the baseless assertions you've made today alone. It's not offensive at all to say you're trolling when you're throwing around your opinion as fact without any factual backing. Now it's true that I had already said this before gammo knew about it. But that's fair.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 30, 2016 20:10:03 GMT -5
So you believe everything you read on Twitter? Or only the things that support your world view?
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Post by deepjohn on Jul 30, 2016 20:11:10 GMT -5
So you believe everything you read on Twitter? Or only the things that support your world view? That's a verified account. So it really is Dan Roche tweeting that about gammo. He surely would not make that up.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 30, 2016 20:14:30 GMT -5
Oh, really?
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Post by jmei on Jul 30, 2016 21:33:49 GMT -5
Please provide support for the following assertions: - "effortless delivery"
- "he can throw strike after strike after strike like a strike-throwing machine."
- "He's just out there experimenting and learning, nibbling at the edge and trying to fool batters."
- "The Sox could get Sale for Kopech"
By the way, a troll is someone who makes intentionally inflammatory comments in order to provoke arguments or otherwise induce angry responses. You have a long history of doing so here by posting wild, unsupported assertions like the above. Either provide more support for your arguments, or tone down the nonsense.
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