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Post by brendan98 on Jul 31, 2016 21:53:36 GMT -5
The arguing on Kopech is kind of comical, after all we are talking about a kid that just turned 20, and despite being in his 3rd professional season has only pitched in 30 games, and who has just returned from missing what amounts to nearly a full season of pitching.
As much as everyone wants to project this kid out to what he one day might become, the annoying as it may be truth is that we are going to have to wait for him to develop into the pitcher he is going to become. That electric arm of his and all of this hype he is receiving could become a curse, I don't think this is the type of pitcher you can/should fast track, Kopech needs to refine his secondary pitches, he needs to improve his command, and he needs to throw lots of innings in order to build up to the workload of a big league starter. I for one hope that we don't see Kopech in the bigs until 2019 or 2020, because that would mean the Red Sox resisted rushing his development, and I think that would be best for his career in the long term.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 1, 2016 2:55:12 GMT -5
The arguing on Kopech is kind of comical, after all we are talking about a kid that just turned 20, and despite being in his 3rd professional season has only pitched in 30 games, and who has just returned from missing what amounts to nearly a full season of pitching. As much as everyone wants to project this kid out to what he one day might become, the annoying as it may be truth is that we are going to have to wait for him to develop into the pitcher he is going to become. That electric arm of his and all of this hype he is receiving could become a curse, I don't think this is the type of pitcher you can/should fast track, Kopech needs to refine his secondary pitches, he needs to improve his command, and he needs to throw lots of innings in order to build up to the workload of a big league starter. I for one hope that we don't see Kopech in the bigs until 2019 or 2020, because that would mean the Red Sox resisted rushing his development, and I think that would be best for his career in the long term. I agree. I really hope they shut down that fastball of his for the most part and work solely on his secondary offerings.
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Post by barney27 on Aug 1, 2016 6:09:53 GMT -5
The arguing on Kopech is kind of comical, after all we are talking about a kid that just turned 20, and despite being in his 3rd professional season has only pitched in 30 games, and who has just returned from missing what amounts to nearly a full season of pitching. As much as everyone wants to project this kid out to what he one day might become, the annoying as it may be truth is that we are going to have to wait for him to develop into the pitcher he is going to become. That electric arm of his and all of this hype he is receiving could become a curse, I don't think this is the type of pitcher you can/should fast track, Kopech needs to refine his secondary pitches, he needs to improve his command, and he needs to throw lots of innings in order to build up to the workload of a big league starter. I for one hope that we don't see Kopech in the bigs until 2019 or 2020, because that would mean the Red Sox resisted rushing his development, and I think that would be best for his career in the long term. I agree. I really hope they shut down that fastball of his for the most part and work solely on his secondary offerings. Great you guys are right on target.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 1, 2016 6:41:32 GMT -5
Other the "105!", I have no idea why anyone is even talking about Kopech and his 6 meh starts all year, where he has walked 19 guys, hit 3 more and threw 8 wild pitches in 26 2/3 innings. I'm mildly optimistic about the velocity, but I don't even see the point in arguing over him yet. There isn't much to talk about.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 1, 2016 7:02:52 GMT -5
Uh, obviously the wild pitches are intentional since he has elite command, he's just trying to get inside the hitter's head. Only convinces me even more that he's the greatest pitcher we've ever seen.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 1, 2016 8:20:34 GMT -5
Yeah those dumb Padres. We suckered them with Espinoza while we hung onto Kopech. Woohoo! They didn't know Kopech has such greatness in him!
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Post by greatscottcooper on Aug 1, 2016 8:55:37 GMT -5
Yeah those dumb Padres. We suckered them with Espinoza while we hung onto Kopech. Woohoo! They didn't know Kopech has such greatness in him! Well I hope the Padres learned their lesson. Maybe now they will go out and hire some scouts to actually scout.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Aug 1, 2016 11:13:01 GMT -5
Velocity is something you can't teach. Unless it's to help a Sale/Quintana deal, I hope they hold onto & nurture this kid. Secondary's will come. Look at the recent Owens/Johnson junkballer attempts. They can fool minor leaguers, but not MLB hitters. I do still have some hope on Johnson & maybe Owens can turn into a Rich Hill in a year or 2.
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Post by telluricrook on Aug 1, 2016 15:36:15 GMT -5
Yeah thats why They held on to Pat Light.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Aug 1, 2016 15:47:01 GMT -5
Yeah thats why They held on to Pat Light. The difference is Pat Light is 25 & can't throw strikes. If you can't figure it out by then............
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Post by malynn19 on Aug 1, 2016 17:13:03 GMT -5
Yeah those dumb Padres. We suckered them with Espinoza while we hung onto Kopech. Woohoo! They didn't know Kopech has such greatness in him! Well I hope the Padres learned their lesson. Maybe now they will go out and hire some scouts to actually scout. They have scouts unfortunately for us all they scout is our farm systems.
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Post by klostrophobic on Aug 1, 2016 17:28:57 GMT -5
Yeah thats why They held on to Pat Light. The difference is Pat Light is 25 & can't throw strikes. If you can't figure it out by then............ ...you'll be traded for an older middle-reliever who also doesn't throw strikes.
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Post by Don Caballero on Aug 1, 2016 17:39:52 GMT -5
...you'll be traded for an older middle-reliever who also doesn't throw strikes. To be perfectly fair, Light looked downright awful in his MLB stint and Abad has a nice career for himself. And Light never had the same upside as Kopech, like not even near.
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Post by bnich on Aug 1, 2016 17:53:35 GMT -5
Yeah thats why They held on to Pat Light. Older than Kopech. Already tried and failed as a SP in the minor's. Found some success in the bullpen, but didn't get many outs in short looks at MLB. No comparison.
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Post by deepjohn on Aug 2, 2016 2:35:13 GMT -5
Other the "105!", I have no idea why anyone is even talking about Kopech and his 6 meh starts all year, where he has walked 19 guys, hit 3 more and threw 8 wild pitches in 26 2/3 innings. I'm mildly optimistic about the velocity, but I don't even see the point in arguing over him yet. There isn't much to talk about. Over 100 TBF in AA, he's got a 32% K rate and a .162 BA-/.058 ISO-against. So far, he's the poster boy for unhittable. Being unhittable is thought to result from the combination of velocity, spin rate, and deception. Kopech is exceptional on all three. I posted a video above where the BA scout describes the deception in Kopech's delivery pretty well. His delivery makes it impossible to pick up the ball until it's right on top of the batter, and he doesn't tip his wipeout splitter at all. The 15% BBs is a relatively noisy stat because it can be affected by the swing% of the hitters. Hitters who are overmatched facing Kopech might take more pitches than they would otherwise, so there's a correlation, but not a causation. Part of being unhittable is getting a high Oswing% (outside the zone), but if overmatched hitters are not swinging, the result is more walks. But a walk matters much less when the hitters can't hit enough to score the runner, and when there's also a high K rate.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 2, 2016 5:17:54 GMT -5
I admit, it is very hard to hit the ball when the pitcher throws it to the backstop.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 2, 2016 6:19:32 GMT -5
Other the "105!", I have no idea why anyone is even talking about Kopech and his 6 meh starts all year, where he has walked 19 guys, hit 3 more and threw 8 wild pitches in 26 2/3 innings. I'm mildly optimistic about the velocity, but I don't even see the point in arguing over him yet. There isn't much to talk about. Over 100 TBF in AA, he's got a 32% K rate and a .162 BA-/.058 ISO-against. So far, he's the poster boy for unhittable. Being unhittable is thought to result from the combination of velocity, spin rate, and deception. Kopech is exceptional on all three. I posted a video above where the BA scout describes the deception in Kopech's delivery pretty well. His delivery makes it impossible to pick up the ball until it's right on top of the batter, and he doesn't tip his wipeout splitter at all. The 15% BBs is a relatively noisy stat because it can be affected by the swing% of the hitters. Hitters who are overmatched facing Kopech might take more pitches than they would otherwise, so there's a correlation, but not a causation. Part of being unhittable is getting a high Oswing% (outside the zone), but if overmatched hitters are not swinging, the result is more walks. But a walk matters much less when the hitters can't hit enough to score the runner, and when there's also a high K rate. This is the Kopech thread, not the Owens thread.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Aug 2, 2016 7:45:00 GMT -5
Michael Kopech is a really good prospect whose potential is through the roof, and to be fair the Soxprospects.com staff did increase his grade to 7. So his ceiling is about as high as anyone in the system, but some with deepthoughts in here are acting like he's a sure fire ace.
Potential studs who can throw heat with no control isn't the rarest commodity, the ones who figure it out and harness their stuff is. Yes, Kopech could take that next step but if he follows the path of Owens and never harnesses his command he won't be having success at the MLB level anytime soon.
You can't get by in the MLB walking 6 per 9 innings.
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Post by mgoetze on Aug 2, 2016 10:36:08 GMT -5
If you don't want contrarian views, you should just say so. Oh, is that all it takes? Awesome. Please spare us your "contrarian" views from now on.
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Post by deepjohn on Aug 2, 2016 11:23:54 GMT -5
Michael Kopech is a really good prospect whose potential is through the roof, and to be fair the Soxprospects.com staff did increase his grade to 7. So his ceiling is about as high as anyone in the system, but some with deepthoughts in here are acting like he's a sure fire ace. Potential studs who can throw heat with no control isn't the rarest commodity, the ones who figure it out and harness their stuff is. Yes, Kopech could take that next step but if he follows the path of Owens and never harnesses his command he won't be having success at the MLB level anytime soon. You can't get by in the MLB walking 6 per 9 innings. So they would tell you. But please consider that Kopech's 17% K-BB rate would put him in the top 20 pitchers in MLB. Add to that, the walks really can't score, because the hitters who do swing can't hit enough to drive them in, and not swinging has a much greater chance of leading to a K. To be clear, the view I'm supporting is that he'd be dominant right now against major league hitters, by projecting the same stats he already has at Salem. He just needs a larger sample size to give the projection of these same stats more confidence/alpha.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 2, 2016 11:25:55 GMT -5
Michael Kopech is a really good prospect whose potential is through the roof, and to be fair the Soxprospects.com staff did increase his grade to 7. So his ceiling is about as high as anyone in the system, but some with deepthoughts in here are acting like he's a sure fire ace. Potential studs who can throw heat with no control isn't the rarest commodity, the ones who figure it out and harness their stuff is. Yes, Kopech could take that next step but if he follows the path of Owens and never harnesses his command he won't be having success at the MLB level anytime soon. You can't get by in the MLB walking 6 per 9 innings. Well, that's not entirely true. Sandy Koufax, Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson all did it (or close to it) for a time, and they turned out alright. But I agree that it doesn't help. Those guys are about a once-in-two-decades occurrence, too, so yeah...odds aren't good that he joins that crowd.
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Post by deepjohn on Aug 2, 2016 11:53:39 GMT -5
Over 100 TBF in AA, he's got a 32% K rate and a .162 BA-/.058 ISO-against. So far, he's the poster boy for unhittable. Being unhittable is thought to result from the combination of velocity, spin rate, and deception. Kopech is exceptional on all three. I posted a video above where the BA scout describes the deception in Kopech's delivery pretty well. His delivery makes it impossible to pick up the ball until it's right on top of the batter, and he doesn't tip his wipeout splitter at all. The 15% BBs is a relatively noisy stat because it can be affected by the swing% of the hitters. Hitters who are overmatched facing Kopech might take more pitches than they would otherwise, so there's a correlation, but not a causation. Part of being unhittable is getting a high Oswing% (outside the zone), but if overmatched hitters are not swinging, the result is more walks. But a walk matters much less when the hitters can't hit enough to score the runner, and when there's also a high K rate. This is the Kopech thread, not the Owens thread. The difference with Owens was (and is) that he gives up a lot of hard contact. You can't walk batters and then give up homers. It doesn't work that way.
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Post by rafael on Aug 2, 2016 12:01:09 GMT -5
This is the Kopech thread, not the Owens thread. The difference with Owens was (and is) that he gives up a lot of hard contact. You can't walk batters and then give up homers. It doesn't work that way. Does he? When Owens was at Salem he allowed a .248 BABIP with a 2.32 K/BB in 104.2 innings. Kopech in 22.1 innings has a .326 BABIP against with a 2.14 K/BB. Get your facts straight.
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pd
Rookie
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Post by pd on Aug 2, 2016 12:08:28 GMT -5
The difference with Owens was (and is) that he gives up a lot of hard contact. You can't walk batters and then give up homers. It doesn't work that way. Does he? When Owens was at Salem he allowed a .248 BABIP with a 2.32 K/BB in 104.2 innings. Kopech in 22.1 innings has a .326 BABIP against with a 2.14 K/BB. Get your facts straight. While his BABIP over 22 innings may be a fact, it certainly isn't a meaningful one. I for one appreciate contrarian points of view.
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Post by tonyc on Aug 2, 2016 12:33:20 GMT -5
I too appreciate Deepjohn's last data. It would be interesting to have inside info on whether the sox prefer Kopech long term to Espinoza. While Kopech did not have enough sample size or high enough ratings yet to fetch what Espinoza did, his physique, coachablility and raw stuff are impressive. I recall Nolan Ryan in those early years; enormous amounts of pitches and walks. My friends and I all thought he'd be burnt out quickly but didnt' get that he generated the torque through his lower body. An incredible stat- at one point I believe, with a lead after 7 innings he was 102 and 2 !
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