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40 Man Roster, 2016 Edition
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Post by ryan24 on Sept 9, 2016 6:58:36 GMT -5
Last time they negotiated the CBA in 2011, they didn't postpone any offseason dates. That was the year that the Phillies infamously signed Papelbon days before the new CBA was signed and surrendered their first-round pick. Had they waited a week to formally sign Papelbon, they wouldn't have had to do so, because the new CBA eliminated the draft pick penalty for Type A reliever free agents. Is there anything out there on a new CBA? Have not heard much of anything on what changes might be made.
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Post by amfox1 on Sept 9, 2016 11:01:14 GMT -5
Chris Hatfield Chris Hatfield 7m7 minutes ago OK, so this is embarassing. Luis Alexander Basabe is NOT eligible for Rule 5. Someone on our end counted wrong. This was his 4th season.
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Post by Coreno on Sept 9, 2016 11:43:08 GMT -5
Arizona will still protect the other Basabe.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 9, 2016 12:00:22 GMT -5
Chris Hatfield Chris Hatfield 7m7 minutes ago OK, so this is embarassing. Luis Alexander Basabe is NOT eligible for Rule 5. Someone on our end counted wrong. This was his 4th season. So I'm retracting the "we counted wrong" part, but Alex is telling us that Basabe isn't eligible. I'm looking into why. I'm very confused. I'm looking at the official document from last year. Basabe signed on his 16th birthday, 8/26/2012. Last year, a player who signed on 8/23/2011, his 16th birthday, is listed as eligible (Carlos Tocci in the Phillies system). That said, another guy who signed on that same day in 2011 at age 16, Cristian Alvarado in the Orioles system, is not listed as eligible. If the rule really is just based on when you signed, the above shouldn't be the case. So again, really confused here. Edit: Looked more. A Cubs player (Jesus Castillo) who signed on his 16th birthday on 8/27/11 was not eligible last year. He should be eligible. I don't get it.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 9, 2016 12:09:37 GMT -5
Aha! See bolded. I never knew that. DSL season was over 8/25. Basabe signed the next day.
(c) PLAYERS SUBJECT TO SELECTION. All players on the Minor League Reserve Lists of Major League and Minor League Clubs, except players on the Voluntarily Retired, Disqualified or Ineligible Lists, shall be subject to selection by other Major League Clubs at the Rule 5 Selection Meeting in accordance with the following: (1) A player without previous Major or Minor League service who signs with a Major League or independent Minor League Club shall be subject to selection based on the following: (A) if 18 years of age or under on the June 5 immediately preceding the player’s signing, the player shall be subject to selection at the fifth Rule 5 Selection Meeting that follows the signing date of the player’s first Major or Minor League contract, unless Rule 5(c)(1)(C) applies; (B) if 19 years of age or over on the June 5 immediately preceding the player’s signing, the player shall be subject to selection at the fourth Selection Meeting that follows the signing date of the player’s first Major or Minor League contract, unless Rule 5(c)(1)(C) applies; (C) if the signing date of a player’s first Major or Minor League contract is between (i) the conclusion of the championship season for the Major or Minor League Club to which the player is assigned on such contract and (ii) the next Rule 5 Selection Meeting, then the player shall be deemed to have signed after the next Rule 5 Selection Meeting, for purposes of this Rule 5(c)(1). (2) A player who is re-signed by a Club within one year from the date the Club released the player or voided the player’s contract pursuant to the terms of such contract shall be subject to draft at the Rule 5 Selection Meeting following the date of the latest contract with that Club. (3) A player who has been subject to draft at a Rule 5 Selection Meeting shall be subject to draft at any subsequent Rule 5 Selection Meeting if the player is on a Minor League Reserve List (filed pursuant to Rule 2 (Player Limits and Reserve Lists)) at the time of the Rule 5 Selection Meeting. (4) A player (A) whose contract has been assigned outright by a Major League Club to a Minor League Club, (B) who has been signed as a free agent to a Minor League Uniform Player Contract for services in the following year and is otherwise subject to selection pursuant to Rule 5(c)(1) or Rule 5(c)(2), or (C) who has been released unconditionally from a Minor League roster and is otherwise subject to selection pursuant to Rule 5(c)(1) or Rule 5(c)(2), shall be subject to selection at any subsequent Rule 5 Selection Meeting if the player is on a Minor League Reserve List (filed pursuant to Rule 2 (Player Limits and Reserve Lists)) at the time of the Rule 5 Selection Meeting. (5) A Major League or independent Minor League Club may designate any player on one of its Minor League Reserve Lists to be subject to selection who otherwise would not be selectable under this Rule 5.
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Post by joshmoody23 on Sept 9, 2016 13:22:34 GMT -5
Excellent news on Basabe. If the Sox don't have to put him on the 40 man, I'd say they can afford to keep Martin, Ysla (really only LHR option in org.) and Romanski. Haley is also an option but thats a tough call. I don't think they will protect more than 3. The reason I think they protect Romanski is because Hanigan is done in Boston. Holaday could be resigned as Minor League Free Agent.
I also don't think they will DFA guys like Noe Ramirez, Bryce Brentz, or Williams Jerez. Those guys can contribute in some way. The only way they go is if we make big free agent moves where they really need a roster spot. Not sure they go just to go. The fact that Brentz wasn't recalled was telling however so he could be gone. Jerez has the stuff and would absolutely get claimed. He needs 1 more year before you can DFA.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 9, 2016 17:06:18 GMT -5
Am I reading the Davenport Translations correctly in that they show Jantzen Witte as being essentially as good a hitter as Mookie Betts? Not quite. His Peak Translations by season: .180 .246 .249 .239 Replacement level for 1B is .246. The column you look at is EqA, and he doesn't give season totals for years split between levels. I might as well respond to Chris here: nothing he said in his reply argues against my point that a very good stat translation like the DT's is an important second prospect lens. Nobody thought that Travis Shaw would be an average MLB hitter, but Clay nailed that on the nose. He would have been ranked much higher here and elsewhere had he projected to be a starting third-baseman (his defensive numbers there were always good), albeit a second-division starter based on the evidence, but at the time Clay's numbers were saying that, we had a protracted argument here over whether he needed to even be put on the 40-man roster.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 9, 2016 17:23:52 GMT -5
Another update, including the Basabe news and a new take on Martin and Haley (see the Rule 5 thread).
SP (9) - Price, Porcello, Wright, E.Rodriguez, Pomeranz, Buchholz, Elias, Owens, Johnson, Haley RP (10) - Kimbrel, Smith, Barnes, Ross, Abad, Hembree, Kelly, Workman, Martin, N.Ramirez, Scott PP (15) - Leon, Vazquez; Ramirez, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Shaw, Sandoval, Holt; Betts, Bradley, Benintendi, Young; Swihart, Moncada, Hernandez, Basabe FA (2) - Reliever, RH bench bat.
That leaves 4 spots for the ST roster, plus 2 guys you keep around and DFA when you sign the two free agents.
Candidates for the 4 + 2 spots:
Jerez Ysla Tavarez Waiver claim or low-level MLB FA (e.g., 6th starter candidate or upside relief guy)
Marrero Brentz Holaday
There's no longer a need to DFA Jerez. Keep him around, and given the Y2Y volatility of relievers, maybe you're glad you did.
I still have Holaday being DFA'd when they set the roster, at 39, to give them space for a waiver claim. Brentz will be DFA'd once they've signed both FA's. The last spot on the 40-man is either Marrero, given one more chance, or -- quite a bit likelier -- another FA who will be in the mix for a bullpen job. I'd sign a reclamation starter and hope that either him or Elias is so good in ST, along with Owens and/or Johnson's projections for Pawtucket, that you're comfortable dealing Buchholz at the end of ST to a team that is desperate for a SP.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 9, 2016 17:35:49 GMT -5
You know who's happiest about this, theoretically? Deven Marrero. Half-serious here. And Williams Jerez.
I've looked at Kyle Martin is some detail and I don't see any argument for protecting him. He has consistently failed at the one thing that almost every successful MLB pitcher succeeds at: avoiding hard contact in the minors. His BABIP the last three years: .320, .348, .329. His FIP the last two years is 3.13, 3.02, which would ordinarily give him a chance to pitch in an MLB pen, but with the hard contact he allows to ml hitters, I don't see where he projects as more than a replacement level up and down guy. That's his ceiling.
I don't think they need to protect Justin Haley, either. He certainly has no chance of success as an MLB starter. A team drafting him as a relief conversion would have to be making that experiment in MLB, with the upside being they find a guy to pitch in the 6th and maybe the 7th inning. If the Sox were excited about his relief potential, they would have done the conversion already. They may do it next year to see if he can be marginally useful, but he's not a guy you're likely to lose or would worry about losing.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 11, 2016 3:40:13 GMT -5
I think you have to risk protecting Basabe. Even in the event that you use all his options the next 3 years and isn't ready, then you can risk losing him.
Too much talent to risk giving up. Rebuilding teams would love a prospect like Basabe and probably would try to protect him on their roster somehow.
Also, Carson Smith is surely going to be added to the 60 day DL at the beginning of next year. I know he needs to be added to the 40 man over the winter, but with him needing at least the first full two to three months to recover from TJ surgery, his spot will be open at some point.
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Post by ryan24 on Sept 11, 2016 8:20:49 GMT -5
Does zeiglar get a shot at the relief spot? I think the right handed bat needs to be an of. I am not sure that beni is ready for a reg full season job just yet without some hand holding. Also young has not impressed just yet to fill in big time. Do you think Pablo is on the opening day roster? I thought I heard Zeigler will sign back with Ariz. I do believe Beni is full-time starter next year. I am impressed with Young.
The zeiglar info is good to know. Beni I am sure right now is the starter next year. A little concerned that he might need lots of rest to prevent him from being worn down both mentality and physically. Also the league will catch up to him and how fast does he make adjustments. Young has done a good job while he is healthy, but not sure if he falls into the same area as holt. If he is used too much will he tire and be ineffective.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 11, 2016 9:37:29 GMT -5
I think you have to risk protecting Basabe. Even in the event that you use all his options the next 3 years and isn't ready, then you can risk losing him. Too much talent to risk giving up. Rebuilding teams would love a prospect like Basabe and probably would try to protect him on their roster somehow. Also, Carson Smith is surely going to be added to the 60 day DL at the beginning of next year. I know he needs to be added to the 40 man over the winter, but with him needing at least the first full two to three months to recover from TJ surgery, his spot will be open at some point. I believe it was corrected that Basabe doesn't need to be protected this offseason. i think it has something to do with when he actually signed, so it's not necessary to protect him this offseason.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 11, 2016 16:26:59 GMT -5
I think you have to risk protecting Basabe. Even in the event that you use all his options the next 3 years and isn't ready, then you can risk losing him. Too much talent to risk giving up. Rebuilding teams would love a prospect like Basabe and probably would try to protect him on their roster somehow. Also, Carson Smith is surely going to be added to the 60 day DL at the beginning of next year. I know he needs to be added to the 40 man over the winter, but with him needing at least the first full two to three months to recover from TJ surgery, his spot will be open at some point. I believe it was corrected that Basabe doesn't need to be protected this offseason. i think it has something to do with when he actually signed, so it's not necessary to protect him this offseason. Ok great, I hate to risk losing a player like Basabe so soon.
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Post by ryan24 on Sept 12, 2016 6:59:30 GMT -5
Basabe moves to salem at the start of the year. I would think the acid test would have to be how quickly he moves to Portland. If he shows signs he can handle Portland then I guess he makes the 40 man. Good that we do not have to make a decision this year. But I think next year will be decided by how far he moves up and who else makes a case for inclusion.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 12, 2016 8:56:19 GMT -5
We had two threads basically talking about the same thing, so they've been combined.
Next year's list is acutally pretty interesting:
Rafael Devers Sam Travis LAX Basabe Mauricio Dubon Nick Longhi
Trey Ball Chandler Shepherd Jake Cosart Gerson Bautista Jalen Beeks Darwinzon Hernandez
And to a lesser extent, Jordan Procyshen, Jeremy Rivera, Danny Mars, Hildemaro Requena, Algenis Martinez. Plus whoever they don't protect this year, so maybe guys like Yankory Pimentel who don't get protected this year will push their way into a roster spot.
That list reminds me a little bit of the list in 2011, when we knew entering the deadline that they had to trade 2 or 3 R5 eligible guys just to get SOME value for them. You'd think that Travis and Shepherd would probably have played their way onto the 40-man already by the end of the year, but that's kind of a big group of potential R5 guys. List could thin out over the season, but... maybe it won't.
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Post by ryan24 on Sept 12, 2016 15:24:31 GMT -5
We had two threads basically talking about the same thing, so they've been combined. Next year's list is acutally pretty interesting: Rafael Devers Sam Travis LAX Basabe Mauricio Dubon Nick Longhi Trey Ball Chandler Shepherd Jake Cosart Gerson Bautista Jalen Beeks Darwinzon Hernandez And to a lesser extent, Jordan Procyshen, Jeremy Rivera, Danny Mars, Hildemaro Requena, Algenis Martinez. Plus whoever they don't protect this year, so maybe guys like Yankory Pimentel who don't get protected this year will push their way into a roster spot. That list reminds me a little bit of the list in 2011, when we knew entering the deadline that they had to trade 2 or 3 R5 eligible guys just to get SOME value for them. You'd think that Travis and Shepherd would probably have played their way onto the 40-man already by the end of the year, but that's kind of a big group of potential R5 guys. List could thin out over the season, but... maybe it won't. WOW interesting list. Snapshot in time as of today. You would think that devers, travis, and shepard yes. Dubon, Cosart, and Ball probably. Basabe an longhi maybe. 4 - 8 players potentially pushing on the list. Lots of interesting decisions coming.
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Post by amfox1 on Sept 12, 2016 15:42:11 GMT -5
WOW interesting list. Snapshot in time as of today. You would think that devers, travis, and shepard yes. Dubon, Cosart, and Ball probably. Basabe an longhi maybe. 4 - 8 players potentially pushing on the list. Lots of interesting decisions coming. I would not be surprised to see a number of these players traded this offseason or by next year's trade deadline. There are not that many free agents next year on the team, and the 2018 free agent class could be very deep. 40-man spots will be at a premium next offseason.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 12, 2016 22:05:54 GMT -5
We had two threads basically talking about the same thing, so they've been combined. Next year's list is acutally pretty interesting: Rafael Devers Sam Travis LAX Basabe Mauricio Dubon Nick Longhi Trey Ball Chandler Shepherd Jake Cosart Gerson Bautista Jalen Beeks Darwinzon Hernandez And to a lesser extent, Jordan Procyshen, Jeremy Rivera, Danny Mars, Hildemaro Requena, Algenis Martinez. Plus whoever they don't protect this year, so maybe guys like Yankory Pimentel who don't get protected this year will push their way into a roster spot. That list reminds me a little bit of the list in 2011, when we knew entering the deadline that they had to trade 2 or 3 R5 eligible guys just to get SOME value for them. You'd think that Travis and Shepherd would probably have played their way onto the 40-man already by the end of the year, but that's kind of a big group of potential R5 guys. List could thin out over the season, but... maybe it won't. This is actually very relevant for this year. You don't protect a marginal guy like Ysla or Tavarez if it means you have to put him on waivers a year from now -- that greatly increases the odds of losing the guy. If they leave both of those guys off, then there are 2 or 3 spots (depending on whether you can find 3 guys you like better than Marrero) for various upside gambles: waiver claims of failed prospects, MLB deals for reclamation projects, and minor league FA's leaving deep systems. Bring in a SP to compete with Elias, etc. for the long relief job that will open up if a SP gets hurt, and one or two upside bullpen arms.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 16, 2016 8:00:47 GMT -5
Just popped into my head, everyone tell me if I'm crazy. If there's a real roster crunch, any chance they try to non-tender Workman and try to bring him back on a minor league deal with generous incentives? Maybe someone out there is willing to give him a major league contract, but it's been a long time since he pitched, and three years now since he pitched well. He didn't show anything during his rehab. He has the option year, so a team might take a chance on him, but I really wonder. I'd keep Kyle Martin over him.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 16, 2016 22:49:36 GMT -5
Just popped into my head, everyone tell me if I'm crazy. If there's a real roster crunch, any chance they try to non-tender Workman and try to bring him back on a minor league deal with generous incentives? Maybe someone out there is willing to give him a major league contract, but it's been a long time since he pitched, and three years now since he pitched well. He didn't show anything during his rehab. He has the option year, so a team might take a chance on him, but I really wonder. I'd keep Kyle Martin over him. Well, if they took him off the 40-man, it would be in advance of the big roster crunch a year from now. But I don't think he's arb eligible, as he has 2 years of service time and added none this year. So he would have to be DFA'd, and the downside to claiming him would be minimal. I don't think there's any point of risking losing him.
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Post by amfox1 on Sept 17, 2016 7:48:46 GMT -5
Just popped into my head, everyone tell me if I'm crazy. If there's a real roster crunch, any chance they try to non-tender Workman and try to bring him back on a minor league deal with generous incentives? Maybe someone out there is willing to give him a major league contract, but it's been a long time since he pitched, and three years now since he pitched well. He didn't show anything during his rehab. He has the option year, so a team might take a chance on him, but I really wonder. I'd keep Kyle Martin over him. There's no roster crunch, so I would keep him on the roster until ST. If he doesn't show improvement then, I would consider removing him from the 40-man.
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Post by soxjim on Sept 17, 2016 10:56:37 GMT -5
I thought I heard Zeigler will sign back with Ariz. I do believe Beni is full-time starter next year. I am impressed with Young.
The zeiglar info is good to know. Beni I am sure right now is the starter next year. A little concerned that he might need lots of rest to prevent him from being worn down both mentality and physically. Also the league will catch up to him and how fast does he make adjustments. Young has done a good job while he is healthy, but not sure if he falls into the same area as holt. If he is used too much will he tire and be ineffective. IMO Beni would be able to get sufficient rest. Along with why I'm impressed with Young is that he is a very good righty bat against lefties vs the combo of Beni/Bradley/Holt (And Swihart much better vs rhp though not enough data and can use Shaw). And frankly, I think Holt can handle lefties though he is down big-time vs lefties this year.
But Young doesn't need to be Holt- just hold down the fort enough to be what he has been this year plus you can use him as DH vs lefties to give Hanley a rest or if you want Hanley at 1b. So we have 6 and maybe up to 7 outfielders. No one should wear down. We have depth.
I like our 40 man roster for next year.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 23, 2016 20:33:19 GMT -5
A final take on the projected roster going into the Rule 5, as a revision of my last version:
SP (9) - Price, Porcello, Wright, E.Rodriguez, Pomeranz, Buchholz, Elias, Owens, Johnson RP (10) - Kimbrel, Smith, Barnes, Ross, Abad, Hembree, Kelly, Workman, N. Ramirez, Scott, Jerez PP (16) - Vazquez, Leon; Ramirez, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Shaw, Sandoval, Holt, Marrero; Betts, Bradley, Benintendi, Young; Swihart, Moncada, Hernandez
Abad is non-tendered. The other roster moves upcoming would be Buchholz's optioned picked up, Hanigan's declined, and Holaday, Rutledge and Brentz DFA'd (if any survive, it would be only temporarily). Like Workman, Marrero and Jerez survive because there's room; they can always be DFA'd later if needed.
Since you plan to add only three players (Uehara or other RHR, LHR, Sean Rodriguez or other platoon 3B), you have room to grab two potential Bronson Arroyos for SP depth. (He was claimed on waivers, then passed through waivers at the end of ST).
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Post by dmaineah on Nov 10, 2016 11:22:42 GMT -5
Who should be protected (by November 20th, 2016) from the Rule 5 Draft (December 8, 2016 )?
I would add;
SP - Justin Haley SP - Teddy Stankiewcz RP - Kyle Martin
40 Man Roster currently has 39. Ortiz retirement will bring it down to 38. I waive Bryan Holaday to bring it down to 37.
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Post by soxfanatic64 on Nov 10, 2016 14:18:53 GMT -5
I would waive Bryce Brentz, Williams Jerez, and Bryan Holaday to bring roster down to 35 and add the following 5 players.
Justin Haley Austin Maddox Luis Ysla Kyle Martin Jantzen Witte or Jake Romanski
Teddy Stankiewicz needs more time in Portland (AA). Not even close to the Majors. I saw him pitch 4 times last season and he so very inconsistent.
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