August/September 2016 Player of the Month

Going with Dubon because of being a SS and the k-rate - wow.  But it sure is close.

Dubon is 11 months older (and the same official age) and is playing three levels higher. And he's a SS rather than a 3B. You don't even have to look at the strikeouts. It's not close.

He's now three votes behind.

Dalbec had the edge in EqA, .355 to .335. Defensively, Dubon (according to BP) has been a -16 R/150 SS, so we'll adjust him as an average-fielding 2B, which adds +.006. Dalbec has been a +11 3B, which adds +.013. Finally, the EL has hit .017 better than the NYPL (.254 vs. .237).

So now you're weighing Dalbec's league- and defense adjusted .391 versus Dubon's .347. That doesn't seem close. But Dubon has done it at "the same age" (or 11 months older if you prefer) but three levels higher. That's immense. Does anyone really think Dalbec could have put up that .378 of offense in Salem, let alone Portland? If not, how is that possibly the better month?

Put another way, Dubon's month at AA was the equivalent of Joey Votto's season in MLB. What do you think Votto would have hit in high-A? Do think he could have added .040 of OBP and .100 of SA? Easily, right? That would put him in a tie with Dalbec's EqA. If he adds that much, then Dalbec loses that much when he goes up three levels. It's pretty clear he loses quite a bit more.

Then you add Dubon's SB and CS, and his low strikeout rate. Like I said, I don't think it's close. If you don't think age relative to league matters (let alone closeness to MLB), then I suppose it's not close the other way.

Why? He played shortstop.


Sorry, based on what?


You lost me even further with this.

That's not true at all. He'd also strike out at least once a week on an awful call by some Carolina League umpire. He probably hits .580, max.

1) Because he projects as a starting 2B. He's playing SS to increase his versatility as a potential utility guy. If you're going to adjust for ARL, then you also adjust for roles, because you don't penalize a guy for the way the team is using him; you're trying to find the best month as it projects to MLB (hence SoxProspects.com rather than SoxMinorLeaguers.com) based strictly on the performance without regard to scouting reports. If a guy had been aggressively promoted, his numbers would be down from what he would have hit otherwise, and you'd be adjusting for that as well.

If you think the PotM should be the guy who had the best month, period, regardless of how that augurs for MLB if we took the numbers at face value, then Dalbec is already killing Dubon and this further adjustment is moot.

2) Dubon's EqA with the adjustments is roughly = to Votto this year.

3) We're trying to judge how much a player's slash line might change if you moved him three levels, which is what you need to do to compare Dubon and Dalbec. So I created a thought experiment about Votto changing three levels, so folks could get an intuitive sense of how much more impressive Dubon's line in AA is compared to Dalbec's line in A-, at the same age.