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Post by jmei on Mar 15, 2017 7:05:50 GMT -5
Correct, tex - consdering the players they have locked up long term, who they're likely to draft, and the likelihood of Isaiah being extended, Bradley seems to be the odd man out ... especially at the money he'll get on the open market. That could change if they swing a deal that involves some of those other pieces, but as of now, it's pretty much a numbers game. It is somewhat of a game of musical chairs, but enough of the other variables are up in the air enough (re-signing Thomas, extending Smart, lottery pick, development of Rozier) that I don't think it's fair to call the odds of Bradley re-signing "miniscule." Unlikely, sure, but certainly still a possibility.
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Post by texs31 on Mar 15, 2017 7:21:23 GMT -5
And I wouldn't have chose the word "miniscule" either but doesn't focusing on that word and saying it makes the statement wrong miss the larger point?
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 15, 2017 7:27:16 GMT -5
And I wouldn't have chose the word "miniscule" either but doesn't focusing on that word and saying it makes the statement wrong miss the larger point? Less so than you focusing on his use of changing the word minuscule to unlikely misses the point of his post. The point of Jmei's post was to point out all the variables that are in play.
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Post by texs31 on Mar 15, 2017 7:35:22 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure we're all aware of the variables and, as I guessed (and WCP confirmed) the phrase "as of now" was intended to address the possibility that those could change.
It's gotten to the point where you have to be SO careful with how you word things bc people are just looking for ways to tell each other "you're wrong". Guess I'm just getting too old for that style of sports talk.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 15, 2017 7:45:51 GMT -5
Considering all the variables it seems obvious that a trade is in order. One that moves at least one guard and brings back a big. So who goes and who stays will be dependent on the perceived value in a trade. Right now there have been reports that Smart is not valued as high around the league as Danny would hope. We have been waiting for some fireworks in this regard for a few offseasons now, maybe this will be the year. Multiple draft picks and a multitude of guards could add up to something big.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Mar 15, 2017 7:50:25 GMT -5
Smart is the only player that is a lock to be extended imo.
The rest comes down to the price of extending both Bradley and Isaah. That and the return you could for either one of them in a trade.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 15, 2017 7:50:59 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure we're all aware of the variables and, as I guessed (and WCP confirmed) the phrase "as of now" was intended to address the possibility that those could change. It's gotten to the point where you have to be SO careful with how you word things bc people are just looking for ways to tell each other "you're wrong". Guess I'm just getting too old for that style of sports talk. I agree to an extent. There are times when it seems some are a bit too argumentative but then you just realize it is their style and they don't really mean to be so abrasive. The give and take tends to be more moderate most of the time and as arguments progress.
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Post by texs31 on Mar 15, 2017 8:01:09 GMT -5
And I'm not intending to police this (the mods do a GREAT job in preventing this board from becoming the absurd comment sections of so many others). If it's coming across that way, I apologize (to mods and posters alike). I'm mostly defending the way I post and asking for others to see that (in a very passive aggressive way).
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 15, 2017 8:01:17 GMT -5
Another thing to keep in mind is the fact that the cap is growing rapidly along with the fact ownership has committed to going over the cap to keep the core together. How much does ownership/Stevens value AB when looking around the league at what some of these unproven youngsters are forecasted to get when their rookie deals expire. I would argue that he is worth the 18-20 when looking at the landscape. I think 20 pts, 4-5 boards and 3 assists with great efficiency along with elite D is worth keeping around.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 15, 2017 8:02:29 GMT -5
The Mods do a great job here.
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Post by jmei on Mar 15, 2017 8:23:27 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure we're all aware of the variables and, as I guessed (and WCP confirmed) the phrase "as of now" was intended to address the possibility that those could change. It's gotten to the point where you have to be SO careful with how you word things bc people are just looking for ways to tell each other "you're wrong". Guess I'm just getting too old for that style of sports talk. My point is that none of those variables are anywhere near settled. The Celtics currently have one guard on a guaranteed contract for the 2018/19 season, and it's Demetrius Jackson. Bradley and Thomas will be unrestricted free agents that offseason, Smart will be a restricted free agent, and Rozier has his four year rookie option. I'm not sure why re-signing Bradley is meaningfully less likely than re-signing Thomas or Smart. Frankly, I'd probably rather re-sign Bradley to a $20-25M AAV contract at age 27 than re-sign Isiah Thomas to the max (~$34M in year one, I think) at age 29.
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Post by wcp3 on Mar 15, 2017 8:41:12 GMT -5
Another thing to keep in mind is the fact that the cap is growing rapidly along with the fact ownership has committed to going over the cap to keep the core together. How much does ownership/Stevens value AB when looking around the league at what some of these unproven youngsters are forecasted to get when their rookie deals expire. I would argue that he is worth the 18-20 when looking at the landscape. I think 20 pts, 4-5 boards and 3 assists with great efficiency along with elite D is worth keeping around. Ainge is a big fan of Bradley going back to draft day, and it's why he extended him at a time that had people scratching their heads. All he's done is improve every year since then, which, combined with the rising cap, makes him a valuable commodity on the open market. This will be AB's biggest payday of his career, and I don't see Ainge offering what's it'd take to keep him. Between all the other guards they have for cheaper (Smart, Rozier, presumably this year's pick) and AB's durability issues, I think the two sides will be too far off to make another extension work. Essentially the Celtics will have to make a choice between Bradley and Isaiah, and that decision won't be a difficult one. (FWIW, Bradley has turned into one of my favorite players ever, so I'd hate to see him go. But ''tis a business.)
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Mar 15, 2017 9:44:38 GMT -5
Yeah I don't see the Celtics paying Isaah what he thinks he's probably worth. Bradley will be more cost effective. Plus, Rozier and most likely the PG the Celtics draft will headline the PG position. The SG is where there could be a need in the future.
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Post by wcp3 on Mar 15, 2017 10:09:20 GMT -5
I think this board is starting to weirdly underrate Isaiah. Yes, advanced metrics aren't always kind to him and should be considered, but they are also far more flawed for basketball than for baseball if you don't apply the proper context.
For instance - I give Bradley and Crowder all the credit in the world for continuing to improve their offensive games. But those improvements seem to correlate with Isaiah 1) getting to Boston, and 2) continuing to rise as a scorer. Do you really think that's a coincidence? Or do you think IT opens things up for everyone else, which has allowed Crowder and Bradley to take advantage of their improved offensive skill sets? The Celtics offense already has some trouble late in games because Isaiah is the only one who can create his own offense, so I shudder thinking about them trying to close games without him. Bradley may seem like the more cost-effective player without that context, but this team gets a whole lot worse if they choose to keep him over Isaiah.
(Not for nothing, but there are rumblings Isaiah may be willing to take a slight discount to stay in Boston - they're the first team to give him a real shot, and he clearly embraces playing here. Not sure of the logistics, but if the Celts miss out on Hayward, maybe we see them extend IT this offseason instead of waiting till his contract is up.)
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Post by jmei on Mar 15, 2017 10:21:50 GMT -5
I worry that Thomas needs every bit of his current athleticism in order to score over and around guys as effectively as he has the last few years. Can he still get to and score at the rim once he starts to slow down? We've already seen him struggle when opposing teams focus on double-teaming him. If he slips in that department, he has no shot of coming close to being worth his expected contract.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Mar 15, 2017 10:45:00 GMT -5
The Celtics do need a offensive PG to go with Crowder and Bradley.
That's why the Celtics will hopefully draft Fultz who is basically Isaah Thomas with size.
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Post by wcp3 on Mar 15, 2017 10:47:28 GMT -5
Fultz has the upside to be better than Isaiah, but it's a huge leap to assume he'll even be as good.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Mar 15, 2017 10:58:27 GMT -5
Fultz has the upside to be better than Isaiah, but it's a huge leap to assume he'll even be as good. A team with Gordon Hayward and Fultz (plus Bradley, Smart, Crowder, and Brown) longterm is better than a team with a 29 year old Isaah and a Hayward.
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Post by wcp3 on Mar 15, 2017 11:46:19 GMT -5
Hayward to Boston is a long shot, so I'm not sure what he has to do with anything.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Mar 15, 2017 11:50:48 GMT -5
Well any non guard free agent, plus Fultz could keep this team contending for a long time.
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Post by telluricrook on Mar 15, 2017 13:55:40 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure we're all aware of the variables and, as I guessed (and WCP confirmed) the phrase "as of now" was intended to address the possibility that those could change. It's gotten to the point where you have to be SO careful with how you word things bc people are just looking for ways to tell each other "you're wrong". Guess I'm just getting too old for that style of sports talk. My point is that none of those variables are anywhere near settled. The Celtics currently have one guard on a guaranteed contract for the 2018/19 season, and it's Demetrius Jackson. Bradley and Thomas will be unrestricted free agents that offseason, Smart will be a restricted free agent, and Rozier has his four year rookie option. I'm not sure why re-signing Bradley is meaningfully less likely than re-signing Thomas or Smart. Frankly, I'd probably rather re-sign Bradley to a $20-25M AAV contract at age 27 than re-sign Isiah Thomas to the max (~$34M in year one, I think) at age 29. I cant find an article or a tweet that i have seen within the last month. But I swear I have seen something written by a basketball person that Avery Bradley is not likely to get a Max Contract in free agency.
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Post by wcp3 on Mar 15, 2017 20:46:20 GMT -5
Big W tonight considering Washington's surprising loss to the Mavs.
Only complaint - Jerebko isn't nearly good enough to get the minutes he does on this team.
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Post by telluricrook on Mar 15, 2017 23:50:01 GMT -5
Big W tonight considering Washington's surprising loss to the Mavs. Only complaint - Jerebko isn't nearly good enough to get the minutes he does on this team. Yup, Another hook shot that didnt hit the rim.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 16, 2017 6:48:04 GMT -5
I think Horford and his passing play making has more to do with the improvement of his teammates and spacing than Isaiah does. I kind of agree with both of you tho. Isaiah is underrated in some ways but i do think this is his absolute peak and a max or near max extension is a huge risk with major downside.
I read one article that graded defensive players and Isaiah graded out as the second worse defender in all of basketball. They commented about how earlier in his career he was at least an active off ball defensive player who disrupted passing lanes but now he basically plays no defense which is evident. What I will say is he sacrifices it for his offense which they need and you can see him step up late in some games when he's on the court defensively but regardless he's extremely limited.
It's hard to pay a guy like Bradley when he's not on the court all the time and you can't trust him to be. Those of you who aren't concerned about it and those of us who are won't ever agree on this so it's not worth debating.
There are legitimate reasons for not extending both players in a hard cap league. You sign one bad contract and it can really screw you over - that's why the Nets picks (and keeping them) is so vital in my mind.
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Post by wcp3 on Mar 16, 2017 9:34:46 GMT -5
I think Horford and his passing play making has more to do with the improvement of his teammates and spacing than Isaiah does. I kind of agree with both of you tho. Isaiah is underrated in some ways but i do think this is his absolute peak and a max or near max extension is a huge risk with major downside. I read one article that graded defensive players and Isaiah graded out as the second worse defender in all of basketball. They commented about how earlier in his career he was at least an active off ball defensive player who disrupted passing lanes but now he basically plays no defense which is evident. What I will say is he sacrifices it for his offense which they need and you can see him step up late in some games when he's on the court defensively but regardless he's extremely limited. It's hard to pay a guy like Bradley when he's not on the court all the time and you can't trust him to be. Those of you who aren't concerned about it and those of us who are won't ever agree on this so it's not worth debating. There are legitimate reasons for not extending both players in a hard cap league. You sign one bad contract and it can really screw you over - that's why the Nets picks (and keeping them) is so vital in my mind. I think you're spot on about Horford's impact, and it's eerie to me how much his impact reminds me of KG's. His style (and demeanor) is obviously very different and he's only about 7/10 the player. But his all-around game combined with his selflessness cannot be overlooked - not all players at his talent level would be willing to pass up as many shots as he does for an assist, to set a screen, etc. That's what made KG unique compared to most of the superstars of his generation. Isaiah's improvement has coincided with the Celtics' improvement in close games, and I do think the extra attention he draws has led to more open shots for others. But Horford's value is striking in games he doesn't play.
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